How voter dissatisfaction could give Reform a Holyrood byelection boost

'It's going to be interesting to see how many people vote for them,' says Karen, a nurse from Larkhall, South Lanarkshire.
'Labour and the SNP are expected to be the main contenders in this byelection, but more and more people are talking about Reform.'
There are murmurs of agreement from other voters at this focus group, organised by public opinion researchers More in Common ahead of the 5 June byelection for the Holyrood seat of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, in Scotland's central belt.
'Do you think it will surprise people?' asks the convener, Luke Tryl.
There's some laughter, and further agreement. 'I think so,' agrees Liam, an accountant from Stonehouse. 'It's going to be surprising to people in Scotland'.
After the death of the popular Scottish National party MSP Christina McKelvie in March, this contest was anticipated as a typical two-horse race between the nationalists, whose ship has been steadied by current leader and first minister, John Swinney,after successive scandals, and Scottish Labour, which has lost momentum since last July's general election because of unpopular Westminster policies.
But over the past six weeks canvassers of all stripes report a significant shift, with Reform UK gaining ground, particularly since their success in the English council elections, and speculation that the party, which has previously polled at half of the support enjoyed south of the border and whose leader, Nigel Farage, remains, according to that same polling, deeply unpopular in Scotland, may push Labour into third place.
As Liam tells the group: 'I've always been a SNP and a Labour voter, but I'm running out of options now. Is Reform the change that's needed?'
It's 'time to give someone else a chance,' says Jamie, a service engineer from Hamilton even though he thinks Farage is an 'arsehole'.
The language is 'shockingly familiar', says Tryl, to what he's heard from disillusioned voters in England and Wales. While Farage has historically struggled to gain a foothold in Scotland, Tryl suggests this 'could be starting to change'.
This dissatisfaction – the 'scunner' factor – is reflected across a constituency made up of post-industrial towns, faded town centres and outlying housing estates and villages isolated by poor public transport.
It is also an area of deeply embedded sectarian division, with enclaves of strident support for Rangers football club, the Protestant fraternity the Orange Order and the union. In Larkhall, the sandwich chain Subway once had to remove the colour green from their livery because of its association with Catholic-founded Celtic football club.
While that century-old fissure has healed considerably in recent years, Fiona Dryburgh, CEO of Larkhall's Machan Trust, a community group, is 'scared' of how years of anti-sectarian work is being undone. She would like to see more action to counter Reform's misinformation, 'but it's difficult for other parties because no one believes them'.
Earlier this week, Swinney called on Meta to act on a particularly egregious example of misinformation – a Reform advert that claims the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, said he would 'prioritise the Pakistani community' with no evidence to support it.
Speaking at an event in Westminster on Tuesday, Farage defended the video, saying Sarwar 'introduced sectarianism into Scottish politics' and claimed his party only shared words used by the Scottish Labour leader. The words ascribed to Sarwar by Reform do not appear in the clips they shared.
Dryburgh says: 'I'm quite scared because we've done so much anti-sectarian work here very successfully but now I'm hearing so much about immigration.'
She sees the impact at the breakfast and after-school clubs she runs. 'Parents are having fights about it on Facebook, then their kids bring it into groups. We had to put one child out of a group for doing a Nazi salute and using the N-word. They were 10 years old.'
Some Scottish Labour figures have expressed private dismay at the strength of support for Reform and voter dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. 'Winter fuel payment comes up on every door,' says one – and even last week's U-turn is dismissed as opportunism. Senior Westminster figures are expected to lend their support in person over the final week.
On a rainy bank holiday Monday, the SNP candidate Katy Loudon was flanked by Scottish government ministers, former MPs and Swinney himself, who described the contest as 'too close to call'.
SNP canvassers confirm they too have encountered voters 'more comfortable saying they are voting Reform' as well as a general sense of 'apathy and promises not delivered'.
Meanwhile Reform anticipate a 'tartan bounce' following their council election wins. 'Nigel has proved his credibility with voters,' says a party source, agreeing that success in Hamilton 'sets the tone for Holyrood 2026'.
During a campaign visit on Tuesday, Sarwar admitted some voters were treating this byelection as an opportunity to show their 'frustrations' with both the UK and Scottish governments.
'I think, undoubtedly, that people are scunnered with politics … Many people are looking at the most reactive option.'

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Yahoo

43 minutes ago

• Yahoo

What can Northamptonshire expect from Doge?

They have caused a stir in Donald Trump's US and now Elon Musk-style Doge teams are descending on Northamptonshire's two unitary councils, which are run by Reform UK. What can people in the county expect from them and what have they achieved elsewhere? Hardly anyone had heard the acronym Doge before Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025. The idea is reported to have surfaced first at a dinner party where Donald Trump's billionaire advisor, Elon Musk, was speaking in 2023. The Tesla, Space X and X businessman told fellow diners that, if given the passwords to government computers, he could streamline its operations. When Trump became President again this year, he set up the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) and put Musk in charge of it. Its aim was to end the "tyranny of bureaucracy", save taxpayers' money and cut the US national debt, said Musk. What has actually happened so far is two million federal workers being offered a deal to leave. A preliminary meeting with the Doge team happened this week at West Northamptonshire Council, and it will be descending on North Northamptonshire in the near future following the huge swing from the Conservatives to Reform UK in the May local elections. The Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, who received a hero's welcome when he met his councillors in Corby on Tuesday, explained how it would work. "The Doge team comes in and it talks to the officers and says 'we want to look at the books, we want to see what money's been spent on this, what money's been spent on that, we want to see the credit card statements, we want to see the contracts'," he said. He took repairing potholes as an example and said Doge would ask "Who've you assigned to do this job? How long is the contract for? What's the cost? Is it based on results?" He insisted that "not everything about Doge is critical, not everything about Doge is slagging off what's gone before. I'm really hoping that Doge can help everybody". Reform UK said its team in West Northamptonshire would consist of "software engineers, data analysts and forensic auditors". The short answer, according to Reform UK, is nothing. Mark Arnull, leader at West Northamptonshire, said: "The cutting-edge expertise the Doge team are providing free of charge will make it that much easier to identify waste and free up funds." Martin Griffiths, who leads West Northamptonshire, said: "We're not going to pay a penny [for the Doge review] so that's why our officers are fully in support of this." Some politicians have questioned whether experts would really work for free, and have suggested the pro bono element might not be good for local people. Rich Lehmann, Green party leader in Kent, the first council to undergo the process, said: "The fact that they have software engineers offering to work 'for free' is of particular concern, given that the data they are forcefully requesting access to would include significant volumes of commercially sensitive information and the personal data of many of Kent's most vulnerable residents." The leader of the Labour group on West Northamptonshire Council, Sally Keeble is concerned about the team's accountability and use of data. She has submitted a Freedom of Information request for all communication between the council and the team to be disclosed. She said: "If the Reform administration wants to appoint Doge, they should put the organisation through a transparent procurement process with safeguards in place for people's personal data." Helen Harrison, who leads the Conservative opposition in North Northamptonshire, has said she would welcome any efficiencies but believed the review should be carried out by council officers rather than an external team. Jonathan Harris, who leads the Liberal Democrat group in the North, said: "We understand that during the visit on Friday, 13 June the Doge team asked for no information, were provided with no information, didn't share a plan, and yet proclaimed that they were already 'starting to save taxpayers money'." Harris added: "It begs the question why taxpayers are paying cabinet member allowances, including basic councillor allowances of around £424,000 to the [Reform UK] administration. "It's their job to lead, set strategy and establish savings, not the responsibility of an unelected group of individuals." West Northamptonshire's Independent councillor Ian McCord said he had written to the council leader to ask whether advice had been sought about the legal standing of the Doge unit, and whether data held by the council would be safe. NIgel Farage is adamant that the Doge approach is working. He said: "Already, in other counties, we have found examples of pretty egregious expenditure." In Derby, where there is a cabinet member for council efficiency (Doge), the party claimed to have made efficiency savings equating to £6,000 per day. It later admitted that figure was a mistake and was more like £4,000 per day. An unlikely winner so far from the Doge initiative has been the public sector workers' union Unison. According to data released to Sky News, weekly new memberships increased by an average of 272% in the week after the May election results were announced. From a weekly average of 12 new members at North Northamptonshire the union saw the figure shoot up to 27 in the week following the election. Farage has admitted that efficiencies may be more difficult to find in Northamptonshire's two unitary councils, which came into being in 2021, than in some older authorities. Other politicians have pointed out that councils already face regular audits so Doge teams would simply duplicate that process. On the available evidence, though, two things look certain: Northamptonshire will go through the Doge process, and it will still be controversial. Follow Northamptonshire news on BBC Sounds, Facebook, Instagram and X. Musk-style Doge team starts work at council Put solar on roofs not farms, says Reform leader Reform UK to give council Musk-style audit West Northamptonshire Council North Northamptonshire Council

Bloomberg

2 hours ago

• Bloomberg

Farage's Rise Calls Bank of England Independence Into Question

In the nearly three decades since Gordon Brown handed control of interest rates to the Bank of England, the move has been broadly viewed as a success in helping to keep inflation under control. Now that consensus appears to be breaking down. The surge of Nigel Farage's Reform UK party in national opinion polls poses a direct challenge to the BOE at a time when central bank independence is being tested across the world. Farage, a vocal supporter of Donald Trump, has at times targeted the BOE in a way that echoes the US President's aggressive approach to the US Federal Reserve.

Yahoo

12 hours ago

• Yahoo

Ministers ‘abusing' anti-terror laws against Palestine activists

Former Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf has said the Government is 'abusing' anti-terror laws against pro-Palestine activists as tens of thousands of protesters marched in London. A protest organised by groups under the Palestine Coalition banner marched to Whitehall from Russell Square in central London on Saturday afternoon. Organisers estimated that 350,000 people attended the protest, with those marching waving Palestinian flags and chanting 'free, free Palestine' and 'stop bombing Iran'. Many protesters chanted 'shame on you' as they walked past dozens of counter-protesters, organised by pro-Israeli group Stop The Hate, near Waterloo Bridge. The Metropolitan Police said a person was arrested after a bottle was thrown towards the counter-protesters. They added that 'a group appeared on Waterloo Bridge trying to block traffic' following the protest, with officers intervening to clear the road. The demonstrations come after reports on Friday that the Home Secretary will ban Palestine Action after the group vandalised two aircraft at RAF Brize Norton. Yvette Cooper has decided to proscribe the group, making it a criminal offence to belong to or support Palestine Action, after footage posted online showed two people inside the RAF base, with one appearing to spray paint into an aircraft's jet engine. Addressing crowds at the national march for Palestine in Whitehall, former SNP leader Mr Yousaf said: 'While we stand a stone's throw from Downing Street, let's make it clear to the Prime Minister: You try to intimidate us with your anti-terror laws by abusing them, but you'll never silence us as we speak out against the genocide that you're supporting. 'We're not the terrorists – the ones that are literally killing children, they are the terrorists.' A pro-Palestine protester said it was 'absolutely horrendous' that the Government is preparing to ban Palestine Action. Artist Hannah Woodhouse, 61, told the PA news agency: 'The Government, since yesterday, have said they're also going to start to try to proscribe peace activists who are trying to take action against the genocide – so Palestine Action are now being targeted by our Government, which is absolutely horrendous.' Ms Woodhouse, who is from London, added: 'Counter-terrorism measures, it seems, are being used against non-violent peace protesters. 'The peace activists are trying to do the Government's job, which is to disarm Israel. The duty of any government right now is to disarm a genocidal state.' Musician Paloma Faith told pro-Palestine campaigners that she would not 'stick to music and stay away from politics'. Speaking to crowds at the march, the songwriter, 43, added: 'Those who facilitate these crimes against humanity need to be made accountable, not those of us who are compassionate and humane enough to stand against it.' Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn told protesters that politicians were seeking to 'turn people who protest against the invasion of Iran or the occupation of Palestine into terrorists'. Some protesters were carrying Iran flags, with others hoisting signs – distributed by the Islamic Human Rights Commission – that read 'choose the right side of history' alongside a photo of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Human rights group Liberty said banning Palestine Action 'would be a huge step change in how counter-terror laws are applied'. Sam Grant, its external affairs director, said in a statement: 'Targeting a protest group with terrorism powers in this way is a shocking escalation of the Government's crackdown on protest and we urge the Home Secretary to rethink. 'It's clear the actions of Palestine Action don't meet the Government's own proportionality test to be proscribed as a terrorist group, but the consequences for the group's supporters if ministers go ahead would be heavy – with things like wearing their logo carrying prison sentences. 'This move needs to be viewed in light of the sustained crackdowns on protest we have seen from successive governments over recent years, and the worrying fact that there are more and more non-violent protesters spending years in prison.' The Palestine Coalition is comprised of a number of different groups, including the Palestine Solidarity Campaign and Stop The War.