Global Oil Markets at Risk Amid Israel-Iran Tensions, Says Russian Analyst

A leading Russian energy analyst has raised alarm over the potential fallout of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, warning that the global oil market could spiral into crisis if the conflict deepens.
Alexander Frolov, Head of the Russian Institute for National Energy, told media that any prolonged military conflict between the two nations could lead to direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, pushing prices dramatically higher.
'If events unfold the way they did during the last round of strikes, which ended quickly, there will be minimal impact,' Frolov explained on his Telegram channel. 'But if the current crisis escalates, the oil and gas infrastructure in both countries will come under threat.'
Frolov noted that while Iran is not the top oil supplier globally, it still exports 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day to nations like China. 'Any disruption would increase prices,' he said, though he added that losses could be partially offset by China's reserves or increased OPEC+ output.
His most alarming scenario involves a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical waterway through which around 20 to 21 million barrels of oil transit daily, representing nearly one-fifth of global consumption.
'If other countries get involved and shipping in the Strait is disrupted, we could see oil prices shoot up to $300 — or even $1,000 per barrel,' Frolov cautioned.
Oil prices have already begun responding to the geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both rose roughly 7% by Friday's close.
The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel has reignited fears over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint crucial to the global energy supply chain. Experts warn that any extended conflict could severely impact global oil availability and prices.

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