Siddharth Vora banks on largecaps, avoids smallcaps amid market uncertainty

"Valuation premiums could contract for India in the near to medium term and given that we do not have much upside room in terms of valuation left, we could be in a very narrow range market," says
Siddharth Vora
, PL Asset Management.
Help us understand how are you placing your bets in this market because it was just when we started, the
FIIs
making a comeback in the Indian
markets
, but then we have the geopolitical tensions coming back, the China deal being announced, do you believe that the FIIs are here to stay or there could be some way out?
Siddharth Vora:
I would see both of these events as a negative event in the near to medium-term for India. So, everything that worked for us whether it was falling crude, weakening DXY, FIIs coming in, China being out of the race for some time and India being in pole position in terms of global flows and global growth and India being the only geopolitically safe, secured large economy, all of these things are now unwinding in the other side.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
Kedungpane: Beautiful New Senior Apartments with Two Bedrooms
Senior Apartments | Search Ads
Search Now
Undo
Crude is rising, dollar is strengthening again, US bond yields are rising, the
US-China trade deal
is not so good for India at least sentimentally and from a flows perspective, and the recent geopolitical stress has also taken out some shine from India. Valuation premiums could contract for India in the near to medium term and given that we do not have much upside room in terms of valuation left, we could be in a very narrow range market.
So, it would be tough to find meaningful upside of 12%, 15%, 20% in Indian markets. There would be single-digit upside in Indian markets from here on given the way narratives have changed over the last, I would say, 10 days.
Live Events
The fact that single-digit return is something that one should expect, but which particular basket should one look at because in the largecaps which are the safer heavens, do you believe that one should place their bets there or maybe the SMIDs are offering more good opportunities at this point in time?
Siddharth Vora:
Smallcap allocation is significantly underweight. We barely have any smallcap allocation. It would be under 10%, 50% to 55% is largecap, and the balance is midcaps. Our portfolios currently biased towards large and midcap. There is better valuation comfort, better resilience amidst all the chaos and chaos is the new normal in Indian markets and global markets, the way things are panning out with pandemics, wars, trade wars, lot of things are changing, so chaos is here to stay.
So, we have positioned our portfolio defensively in terms of size, but aggressively in terms of sectors, that is how we have brought in the beta. We have positioned into high beta sectors like lenders, like capital market plays, like metals, some high beta domestic consumption plays, and some defence as well, that is the broad positioning of the portfolio.
We also have our global exposures to it and metals to see the global rebound playing out in the markets and we have been positioned in that since roughly two, two-and-a-half months. So, hopefully that position should recover well like it is right now.
And yes, I think that is the broad positioning, large and mid and balance between domestic and global plays because you cannot take either sides in a market like this where there is so much uncertainty.
One more thing that I want to bring to your attention is the fact that with this entire
Trump
and China saga playing out on the tariffs, now that the tariffs have eased up, is India likely to lose a certain relative advantage that we had over China, will that start ebbing away as far as the foreign inflows are concerned?
Siddharth Vora:
If I look at Indian market seven days back, we were the only large market which was growing fast, had domestic macros, which had interest rates coming down, inflation under control, zero geopolitical stress and our biggest large EM competitor which was China that had lost a major advantage. So, from a relative perspective, India was in pole position and the strongest placed global market. Now, two of the advantages that were playing for us are actually going against us and therefore, from a foreign capital flow this is not such a great moment for India at least in the near to medium term till this is discounted either with a price correction or with a time correction. We have lost pole positioning right now.
What is your advice, where are you finding some signals of caution for the investors where they should actually look into their investments, the sectors are not expected to perform well given the fact that one should stay cautious is the advice coming from you?
Siddharth Vora:
I would say stay cautious, stay invested, and just position the portfolio to the current market environment. We also have meaningful allocations to defence, like 5% of our portfolio is defence, another 10% is absolutely defensive, financials within the insurance space or the regulator space. So, we have defensive positioning within aggressive sectors also and other than that having so, we have Bharti Airtel as well in our portfolio, continues to be a large and long holding for us and it has done very well in all the chaos in the market because it is neither affected by geopolitical stress nor is it affected by global tariffs.
So, this is just an example not a recommendation. This is just to say that in every market condition you will find some themes and some ideas which will position well given the market circumstances. For now, a name like Bharti Airtel or HDFC Life is very well positioned despite all the global and local chaos. So, we have to find those ideas and be aware of signals turning against us, like crude, like dollar, potentially foreign inflows as well. We need to be aware, we need to be vigilant, and we need to keep realigning the portfolio to deal with the changing market conditions.
Also, you mentioned that you are well positioned in domestic consumption. Now which part of consumption do you see value, in the discretionary end of it because if you look at the discretionary end of it whether it is the travel tourism sector, the airlines, these themes have already played out quite a bit right now?
Siddharth Vora:
So, we have exited fortunately our entire travel and tourism exposure roughly 20-25 days back and we are quite happy with that exit because
valuations
leave again little room for the upside and now, of course, there is a new trigger of uncertainty. We will never know when it is over. We might be on the edge for some more time. How much ever a ceasefire is announced, we have seen ceasefires being breached whether it is Israel or whether it is Russia-Ukraine ceasefires do get breached time and again. So, currently, it is probably a better space to avoid rather than hold in my opinion. But we are positioned on the discretionary side rather than the staple side, within the consumer buckets. We are liking themes like alcohol as in particular we have been well positioned there.
Just intrigued to know what made you take your positions out of the hotel and the hospitality space because given the fact that yes, of course, by the last month towards the end, there was this Pahalgam attack that did happen, but the markets were on the roar indeed.
Siddharth Vora:
I know the markets were doing well, but no, so we follow a quantitative model. So, when quantitative factors turn adverse, whether the value factor is turning adverse, the volatility factors turning adverse, or other sectors of stocks are showing better strength, it is a combination or interaction of multiple factors which decide which are the top stocks to be held in a given market condition. So, based on that, we have moved out of hotels and airlines.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Scroll.in

33 minutes ago

• Scroll.in

How the Israel-Iran conflict could impact India

On June 13, the Israeli military began striking what it claimed were nuclear targets and other sites in Iran, with the aim of stalling Tehran's nuclear programme. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel. The official toll in Iran is at least 430 so far, while at least 25 persons have died in Israel. The continued exchange of fire has led to concerns of a wider regional conflict that the United States could get drawn into. Washington is an ally of Israel and acts as a guarantor of the country's security. Tehran has rejected US President Donald Trump's demand for an ' unconditional surrender ' and vowed to fight back. The prevailing uncertainty has led to a spike in global oil prices. The price of benchmark Brent crude had jumped to $78 per barrel by Thursday from $69 per barrel on June 12, the day before the conflict began. But the spike was not because of Israeli military's strikes reportedly on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran and one of Iran's largest refineries in Shahr Rey. These actions have little impact on Iranian energy exports. Instead, the spike in prices primarily stem from concerns about the possible blocking of the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict. The closure could threaten global energy security. The chokepoint The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterbody that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. In 2024, an average 20 million barrels of oil was transported through the strait every day. That was about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. This makes the Strait of Hormuz one of the most strategically important chokepoints. Iran has in the past threatened to block the waterbody in retaliation to pressure from the West. On Sunday, the Iranian Parliament decided that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, state-run Press TV quoted lawmaker Major General Kowsari as saying. The final decision will be taken by the Supreme National Security Council, the member of the parliamentary national security commission added. Unlike other chokepoints such as the Suez Canal or the Strait of Malacca, there is no practical alternative for fuel supplies to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in large volumes. Cargo ships are already sailing closer to the Omani coast and have been advised by maritime agencies and governments to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Wednesday. An attempt to shutter the strait will not go unchallenged because of the regional powers' strategic interest in keeping fuel supply open. But the ensuing military confrontation may still disrupt supplies to some extent. India's interest When Tel Aviv and Tehran last exchanged missile fire in October, former Indian diplomat Navdeep Suri had told Scroll that if the conflict escalated and became an all-out war, Iran, feeling threatened, had the capacity to block the Strait of Hormuz. In that case, New Delhi will be staring at a scenario that will 'directly impact India's energy security', he had said. 'A very large chunk of India's energy supplies come from there and that could really be serious for us,' explained Suri, who served as India's ambassador to the United Arab Emirates. 'It's in our interest that it doesn't get out of hand.' India consumes 5.5 million barrels of crude per day for refining. Of this, 1.5 million barrels come through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. If the strait gets blocked, Amena Bakr, the head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights at analytics firm Kpler, told CNBC International on June 13 that oil prices could jump to three-digits. To put the impact of such a scenario into context: a spike of every $10 per barrel drives up inflation in India by about 0.5%, financial services company Morgan Stanley had estimated in April 2024. But Puri told NDTV that closing the strait was not in Iran's own interest. Yet, he said, India remained comfortably placed to meet its fuel needs, adding that New Delhi can tap into alternative supplies if needed. Here is a summary of the week's other top stories. Countering Trump's claims. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told United States President Donald Trump that India will never accept mediation to resolve tensions with Pakistan. The topic came up during a phone call when Trump asked for the details about India's military strikes – codenamed Operation Sindoor – on Pakistan in May, said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. Trump was told that India had agreed to the ceasefire only on Islamabad's request, said Misri. The 'halt to military action was directly between India and Pakistan', the foreign secretary quoted Modi as having reiterated. The call between the two leaders came against the backdrop of the US president repeatedly claiming that he helped settle the tensions between India and Pakistan. New Delhi has rejected Trump's assertions. , writes Rohan Venkataramakrishnan A thaw in relations. India and Canada agreed to reinstate high commissioners in each other's capitals. This was announced after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney met on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit. Other diplomatic steps 'to restore stability in the relationship' will 'follow in due course', said New Delhi. In October, New Delhi and Ottawa expelled several diplomats amid frosty bilateral relations. Ties between India and Canada strained in September 2023 after Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister at the time, told his country's Parliament that intelligence agencies were actively pursuing 'credible allegations' tying agents of the Indian government to the murder of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. New Delhi has rejected Canada's allegations. The language debate. Opposition leaders criticised Union Home Minister Amit Shah for saying that those who speak English in India will soon feel ashamed. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said that English was 'not a barrier, but a bridge', adding that the language provides employment and boosts people's self-confidence. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam MP Kanimozhi said to Shah that 'the only thing to be ashamed of is imposing your will on the people and trying to destroy the pluralism of India'. Shah's comment on Thursday came against the backdrop of several state governments and regional parties accusing the Union government of imposing Hindi through the National Education Policy's three-language formula. Also on Scroll this week for a curated selection of the news that matters throughout the day, and a round-up of major developments in India and around the world every evening. What you won't get: spam.

Time of India

36 minutes ago

• Time of India

Proposed dilution of local content rules may hurt Indian telecom firms, benefit MNCs: GTRI

New Delhi: Major dilutions to local content rules for the telecom sector under the Public Procurement Order could negatively impact Indian firms by giving greater access to multinational corporations (MNCs) in government contracts without manufacturing in India, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative ( GTRI ) . The GTRI in a note further said that the move will benefit major foreign MNCs active in the Indian telecom component industry. Earlier this month, on June 3, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) initiated a public consultation to revise its Public Procurement (Preference to Make in India) (PPP-MII) Order for the telecom sector. The consultation, open to industry comments until July 3, proposes a series of technical adjustments to the existing local content (LC) framework -- changes that could have far-reaching consequences for the sector's future. "Department of Telecommunications (DoT) is moving to relax local content norms for government telecom procurement -- a shift that could favour multinational corporations (MNCs) like Cisco and Ericsson while undermining Indian manufacturers who have invested in domestic production and innovation," GTRI's note added prepared by former Indian Trade Service Officer, Ajay Srivastava said. It added that MNCs are "lobbying India's Department of Telecommunications (DoT) to ease local content (LC) requirements, as they struggle to qualify as Class-I local suppliers for government telecom tenders." India's current PPP-MII policy, which was first updated in October 2024, mandates that any firm seeking preference in government telecom tenders must meet a minimum 50 per cent local content threshold. Srivastava added in the note that in order to qualify as a "Class-I" supplier and enjoy pricing and selection advantages, firms must demonstrate that at least 50 per cent of a product's value is sourced or manufactured in India which has become a difficult task for MNCs. The PPP-MII policy applies to 36 key telecom product categories -- including routers, ethernet switches, GPON devices, media gateways, customer premises equipment (CPE), satellite terminals, telecom batteries, and optical fibre and cables. Under the current PPP-MII framework, several exclusions apply to the calculation of local content. Imported parts routed through Indian resellers, royalties, overseas technical fees, and refurbished products do not count toward Indian value addition. Design and software work performed in India is permitted, but the value generated is capped, with restrictions in place to prevent companies from inflating LC percentages purely on the basis of R&D activities while continuing to import most hardware components. Srivastava added in the note that global majors are finding it "difficult to meet these thresholds." He further added that the underlying issue is that most of the work performed in India is done on an outsourcing basis for their foreign parent companies. The parent companies retain ownership of intellectual property (IP) and earn the bulk of profits. Highlighting the impact of policy change, GTRI note said that the move will put Indian telecom firms -- who have made long-term investments in Indian-based manufacturing, R&D, and IP development -- at a severe disadvantage. "Such Indian firms would face the prospect of losing market share to foreign MNCs whose products remain largely imported and foreign-owned," the GTRI note added. It further points out that dilution of standards would discourage Indian firms from investing in genuine IP creation, as Class-I status could now be achieved simply through superficial assembly or software wrapping of imported goods. "India's telecom sector would remain reliant on foreign technologies, with little strategic control," the GTRI note added.

Business Standard

38 minutes ago

• Business Standard

India pursuing FTAs with mature, rule-bound markets: S Jaishankar

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has termed India's bilateral trade agreements as the 'space to watch', and said New Delhi has, over the past 11 years, pursued trade pacts with countries that have 'more mature markets' and are more 'transparent and rule bound' compared to East Asian countries. Jaishankar said India is now more interested in key free trade agreements. He said the one with the United Kingdom is more or less finalised, the one with the European Union is in advanced stages of negotiation, and there have been several rounds of discussions between Indian and American officials for a bilateral trade agreement. In an interview to public broadcaster DD India, a link to which the minister posted on X on Saturday, Jaishankar said that in the years following economic reforms, most of India's trade agreements were with Southeast Asian nations, which 'skewed the balance' as several of these economies competed with India and did not provide market access. It was important to make the correction and reach an understanding with more mature markets, which are more transparent and rule bound. Jaishankar said India's trade pacts with the United Arab Emirates and Australia are significant achievements, describing New Delhi's push for FTAs as the 'space to watch'. In 2019, India did not join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trading bloc that comprises the 10-member ASEAN grouping and other Asia-Pacific economies, including China, Australia and Japan. He said India has, in the past 11 years, systematically tried to 'deepen our posture, our strategic posture, to have good relations with all major countries, but also other regions, so that we get into the optimal position'. In the past 11 years, the EAM said, the consistent theme underpinning India's foreign policy has been planning for a multipolar world, which India not only desires as it gives it a higher profile and more influence. 'But it is not just the question of our wishes, that is the direction in which the world is moving,' he said, which is why New Delhi, despite enormous pressure on it, maintained its relationship with Russia, he added. About India's ties with the US, he said, 'Where the US is concerned, yes, there is unpredictability, therefore at a systemic level, you stabilise it with as many linkages and relationships as possible.' On India's relations with China, Jaishankar said, 'With China, if you have to stand up to that country and we have had some very difficult periods, (and) so it is important to prepare the capabilities.' The minister said a 'really perplexing' aspect of India's China policy before 2014 was the 'complete neglect of our border infrastructure in the previous decades'. 'To have a China policy and neglect your border infrastructure was absurd,' he said. 'And that is one of the things which has changed. We have today that standing up, in defence of our national interests, along the LAC. It is because we have built the border infrastructure to make that possible,' Jaishankar said. On India's ties with its immediate neighbours, Jaishankar said that India 'should not expect smooth sailing' all the time. He said New Delhi has attempted to shape a 'collective interest' to build an inherent stability in relationships, irrespective of changes in regimes. At the end of the day, 'the logic every one of our neighbours must realise' is that working with India will 'give you benefits', and not working with India 'has a cost', he said. 'Some take longer to realise, some understand it better. One exception of course is Pakistan, because it has defined its identity under the army, in a way it has an in-built hostility in it. So if you put Pakistan aside, the logic will apply everywhere else,' the EAM said.