Five Assembly bypolls in four states today: What is at stake for key players

ON THURSDAY, five Assembly seats across four states will vote in crucial bypolls.
The Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the CPI(M) are looking at the bypolls in West Bengal and Kerala, where they are in power respectively, as precursors to the Assembly polls slated next year in their states. A bypoll win would give them a boost in the 2026 final, with the campaigns reflecting their stakes.
The BJP wants to retain its old bastion in Gujarat, but it is also hoping to clinch another seat where the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is steadily growing. In Punjab, the ruling AAP is facing a challenge from not only the Congress but also the BJP.
The results for the bypolls will be declared on June 23.
The bypoll here was necessitated by the resignation of the CPI(M)-backed Independent legislator P V Anvar. A win will be a shot in the arm for the CPI(M) ahead of the Assembly elections, which it would face while being the incumbent for an unprecedented two terms.
The Congress, which lost the Nilambur seat in the 2021 polls with a margin of 2,700 votes, has mounted a stiff challenge the CPI(M) and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. CM Vijayan has handpicked M Swaraj as the CPI(M)'s candidate from the seat, who has had a sharp rise in the party.
The Congress has nominated its old-timer Aryadan Shoukath from the seat, who had also contested in 2016. Shoukath brings with him legacy too, with his late father Aryadan Mohammad winning the seat eight times before.
In the 2021 Bengal Assembly polls, TMC leader Nasiruddin Ahmed, known as Lal in the party circles, won from the Kaliganj constituency by 46,987 votes against the BJP's Abhijit Ghosh. It was Ahmed's second win from the seat.
Ahmed died in February this year after a cardiac arrest. His daughter Alifa Ahmed is now contesting the bypoll on the TMC's ticket, who is taking on the BJP's Ashish Ghosh and the Congress's Kabil Uddin.
The TMC has a base in the seat owing to Ahmed's groundwork over the years and his popularity among its large Muslim population.
However, the campaigns of the contenders for the bypoll in the constituency has been charged.
The BJP targeted the TMC over the recent Murshidabad riots in which three persons were killed and several people were left homeless. The TMC, in turn, accused the BJP of 'communal polarisation'.
Clearly, the BJP wants to break the TMC's hold on this minority-dominated seat in Nadia district. Their face-off would also play out in the run-up to the 2026 Assembly polls.
Visvadar in Gujarat's Junagadh district fell vacant after sitting AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani joined the ruling BJP. Bhayani is not contesting the seat, with the BJP having fielded Kirit Patel as its candidate, who is a cooperative leader and a former district party president.
The AAP seems to have left no stone unturned to wrest the seat back, fielding Gopal Italia, one of the faces of the Patidar agitation in the state. After keeping a low-profile following the Delhi poll debacle in February this year, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal addressed a number of public meetings in Visavadar and led a road-show in support of Italia.
In the 2022 polls, the AAP had won the seat by getting 45% of total polled votes. The BJP lost the seat by 7,063 votes.
The Congress has give ticket to party leader Nitin Ranpariya, while the Praja Shakti Democratic Party (PSDP), launched by former chief minister Shankersinh Vaghela, has also fielded its candidate here.
This bypoll was necessitated due to the death of the incumbent AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi. The AAP has fielded industrialist and its Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora. Trying to leave nothing to chance, the AAP's top brass — including Kejriwal and senior leaders Manish Sisodia and former Delhi CM Atishi — have campaigned in support of Arora.
The Congress has fielded Bharat Bhushan Ashu and his campaign too seems to have got traction here.
But the winner could be determined by the BJP candidate's performance
Since its creation in 1977, the Ludhiana West constituency has never been won by the BJP. Out of the ten elections held in the seat since, the Congress bagged it six times, the BJP's former ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) clinched two victories, and the erstwhile Janata Party won it once. However, the BJP is sensing a chance this time as the party believes its candidate Jiwan Gupta would cut into the votes of both the AAP and the Congress.
In 2022, the AAP's Gogi had defeated the Congress's Ashu by 7,512 votes.

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