Only two years left to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees target, scientists warn
The planet's remaining carbon budget to meet the international target of 1.5 degrees has just two years left at the current rate of emissions, scientists have warned, showing how deep into the
climate crisis
the world has fallen.
Breaching the target would ramp up the extreme weather already devastating communities around the world. It would also require carbon dioxide to be sucked from the atmosphere in future to restore the stable climate in which the whole of civilisation developed over the past 10,000 years.
The carbon budget is how much planet-heating carbon dioxide can still be emitted by humanity while leaving a reasonable chance that the temperature target is not blown. The latest assessment by leading climate scientists found that in order to achieve a 66 per cent chance of keeping below the 1.5 degrees target, emissions from 2025 onwards must be limited to 80bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. That is 80 per cent lower than it was in 2020.
Emissions reached a new record high in 2024: at that rate the 80bn tonne budget would be exhausted within two years. Lags in the climate system mean the 1.5 degrees limit, which is measured as a multiyear average, would inevitably be passed a few years later, the scientists said.
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Scientists have been warning for some time that breaching the 1.5 degrees limit is increasingly unavoidable as emissions from the burning of fossil fuels continue to rise. The latest analysis shows global emissions would have to plummet towards zero within just a few years to have any decent chance of keeping to the target. That appears extremely unlikely, given that emissions in 2024 rose yet again.
However, the scientists emphasised every fraction of a degree of global heating increases human suffering, so efforts to cut emissions must ramp up as fast as possible.
Currently, the world is on track for 2.7 degrees of global heating, which would be a truly catastrophic rise. The analysis shows, for example, that limiting the rise to 1.7 degrees is more achievable: the carbon budget for a 66 per cent chance of keeping below 1.7 degrees is 390bn tonnes, which is about nine years at the current rate of emissions.
'The remaining carbon budgets are declining rapidly and the main reason is the world's failure to curb global CO2 emissions,' said Prof Joeri Rogelj, at Imperial College London, UK. 'Under any course of action now, there is a very high chance we will reach and even exceed 1.5 and even higher levels of warming.
'The best moment to have started serious climate action was 1992, when the UN [climate] convention was adopted,' he said.
'But now every year is the best year to start being serious about emissions reduction. That is because every fraction of warming we can avoid will result in less harm and suffering, particularly for poor and vulnerable populations, and in less challenges to living the lives we desire.'
The hottest year on record was 2024, fuelled by increasing coal and gas burning, and setting an annual average of 1.5 degrees for the first time. There is no sign yet of the transition away from fossil fuels promised by the world's nations at Cop28 in Dubai in December 2023.
Solar and wind energy production is increasing rapidly and has precluded previous worst-case scenarios of 4 to 5 degrees of global heating. But energy demand is rising even faster, leading to more fossil fuel burning and turbocharging extreme weather disasters.
The analysis, produced by an international team of 60 leading climate scientists, is an update of the critical indicators of climate change and is published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
It aims to provide an authoritative assessment, based on the methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but published annually unlike the intermittent IPCC reports, the most recent of which was 2021.
The study found that the Earth's energy imbalance – the excess heat trapped by the greenhouse effect – has risen by 25 per cent when comparing the past decade with the decade before. – Guardian
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Irish Times
3 days ago
- Irish Times
Only two years left to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees target, scientists warn
The planet's remaining carbon budget to meet the international target of 1.5 degrees has just two years left at the current rate of emissions, scientists have warned, showing how deep into the climate crisis the world has fallen. Breaching the target would ramp up the extreme weather already devastating communities around the world. It would also require carbon dioxide to be sucked from the atmosphere in future to restore the stable climate in which the whole of civilisation developed over the past 10,000 years. The carbon budget is how much planet-heating carbon dioxide can still be emitted by humanity while leaving a reasonable chance that the temperature target is not blown. The latest assessment by leading climate scientists found that in order to achieve a 66 per cent chance of keeping below the 1.5 degrees target, emissions from 2025 onwards must be limited to 80bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. That is 80 per cent lower than it was in 2020. Emissions reached a new record high in 2024: at that rate the 80bn tonne budget would be exhausted within two years. Lags in the climate system mean the 1.5 degrees limit, which is measured as a multiyear average, would inevitably be passed a few years later, the scientists said. READ MORE Scientists have been warning for some time that breaching the 1.5 degrees limit is increasingly unavoidable as emissions from the burning of fossil fuels continue to rise. The latest analysis shows global emissions would have to plummet towards zero within just a few years to have any decent chance of keeping to the target. That appears extremely unlikely, given that emissions in 2024 rose yet again. However, the scientists emphasised every fraction of a degree of global heating increases human suffering, so efforts to cut emissions must ramp up as fast as possible. Currently, the world is on track for 2.7 degrees of global heating, which would be a truly catastrophic rise. The analysis shows, for example, that limiting the rise to 1.7 degrees is more achievable: the carbon budget for a 66 per cent chance of keeping below 1.7 degrees is 390bn tonnes, which is about nine years at the current rate of emissions. 'The remaining carbon budgets are declining rapidly and the main reason is the world's failure to curb global CO2 emissions,' said Prof Joeri Rogelj, at Imperial College London, UK. 'Under any course of action now, there is a very high chance we will reach and even exceed 1.5 and even higher levels of warming. 'The best moment to have started serious climate action was 1992, when the UN [climate] convention was adopted,' he said. 'But now every year is the best year to start being serious about emissions reduction. That is because every fraction of warming we can avoid will result in less harm and suffering, particularly for poor and vulnerable populations, and in less challenges to living the lives we desire.' The hottest year on record was 2024, fuelled by increasing coal and gas burning, and setting an annual average of 1.5 degrees for the first time. There is no sign yet of the transition away from fossil fuels promised by the world's nations at Cop28 in Dubai in December 2023. Solar and wind energy production is increasing rapidly and has precluded previous worst-case scenarios of 4 to 5 degrees of global heating. But energy demand is rising even faster, leading to more fossil fuel burning and turbocharging extreme weather disasters. The analysis, produced by an international team of 60 leading climate scientists, is an update of the critical indicators of climate change and is published in the journal Earth System Science Data. It aims to provide an authoritative assessment, based on the methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but published annually unlike the intermittent IPCC reports, the most recent of which was 2021. The study found that the Earth's energy imbalance – the excess heat trapped by the greenhouse effect – has risen by 25 per cent when comparing the past decade with the decade before. – Guardian
Irish Times
11-06-2025
- Irish Times
Ireland set for extreme cold if Atlantic current collapses, new study suggests
The collapse of the Atlantic ocean current that warms Ireland could see Dublin experiencing temperatures of minus 22 degrees and more days reaching a maximum of zero degrees. That's according to stark findings by Netherlands-based scientists who published their results on Wednesday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) is a large ocean circulation that plays a crucial role in regulating both the global and European climate by redistributing heat through the ocean. There has been growing concern among scientists that the Amoc, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, may collapse following a big influx of freshwater. While this would bring colder conditions to northwest Europe, global warming would continue in other parts of the planet. READ MORE Commenting on the findings, Met Éireann said: 'This research adds to a body of evidence showing that an Amoc collapse would be a high-impact, transformative event. The concern is justified because the consequences, as modelled here, would be severe. 'People should be concerned about the risk that climate change poses to major Earth systems like the Amoc,' it added. 'This paper underscores the severity of what is at stake. However, it is not a prediction that Ireland is headed for an ice age in the coming decades.' 'This study looks at a future where the Amoc has collapsed,' said Dr Gerard McCarthy who is based at Maynooth University 's climate research unit Icarus. 'The Amoc is a system of ocean currents incorporating the Gulf Stream and is one of the factors that gives Ireland a relatively mild climate,' added Dr McCarthy, who is also co-chair of JPI Oceans, a pan-European initiative aiming to deliver climate assessment of the Amoc. [ Amoc: Atlantic Ocean current that gives Ireland benign climate 'may not collapse this century', study finds Opens in new window ] Specifically for Dublin, the scientists at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and Utrecht University predict 32 per cent of days per year will go below zero – 95 days more than pre-industrial times. They conclude 37 days per year will only reach a maximum temperature of below zero in Dublin – 36 days more than pre-industrial levels. Belfast will be even harder hit, the scientists predict, with 41 per cent of the year below zero. Met Éireann said the figures mentioned by the researchers for Dublin and Belfast should be interpreted with 'extreme caution'. Dr McCarthy said the study was not a forecast, and looks centuries into the future when flooding is expected to increase the freshwater flowing into the North Atlantic by 10 to 40 times. 'That Ireland would have a relatively cooler, stormier future under a scenario where the Amoc collapses has been seen often before,' he said. 'However, this is a study even more dramatic in its projections. Hearing these numbers can be shocking and worrying. There is no doubt that the risks associated with an Amoc collapse would be large for Ireland.' The study was not a projection of what is likely to happen 'but a warning about what could if we fail to act on climate.' 'In particular, winter sea ice extending as far south as Ireland, with associated sub-zero cold extremes is quite shocking. Action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions is by far the most important thing we can do to avoid these worst-case scenarios,' he added. [ Winter flood and storm damage may worsen due to Atlantic wind system changes, scientists warn Opens in new window ] For Europe as a whole, this study predicts the advance of sea ice – covering parts of Britain, for example – substantial cooling, more cold extremes, increased winter storms and bigger day-to-day temperature variations. Major cities such as London and Paris would experience cold extremes of -19 and -18 degrees respectively, and more than two months' worth of additional days with sub-zero temperatures compared with the pre-industrial climate. In Scotland, researchers predict its cold extremes could drop to -30C, some 23 degrees colder than the coldest episodes there in the late 19th century. 'The relatively mild climate for a city such as Edinburgh would see drastic changes,' said Dr Michiel Baatsen, a co-author of the study. It would experience 164 days with minimum temperatures below zero, that's almost 50 per cent of the year, and an increase of 133 days compared with the pre-industrial climate.
Irish Times
11-06-2025
- Irish Times
Drought fears in Europe amid reports May was world's second hottest ever
It has been an exceptionally dry spring in north-western Europe and the second warmest May ever globally, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Countries across Europehave been hit by drought conditions in recent months, with water shortages feared unless significant rain comes this summer, and crop failures beginning to be reported by farmers. The new Copernicus data shows that May 2025 was the second-warmest May globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.79 degrees, 0.53 degrees above the 1991-2020 average for May. The month was 1.4 degrees above the estimated 1850-1900 average used to define the pre-industrial level. This interrupts a period of 21 months out of 22 where the global average temperature was more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial level. Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: 'May 2025 breaks an unprecedentedly long sequence of months over 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial. Whilst this may offer a brief respite for the planet, we do expect the 1.5 degrees threshold to be exceeded again in the near future due to the continued warming of the climate system.' READ MORE [ Climate change adds to Syria's problems as Damask rose harvests fade Opens in new window ] The 1.5 degrees is the climate target agreed by the 2015 Paris agreement. The target of 1.5 degrees is measured over a decade or two, so a single year above that level does not mean the target has been missed, but does show the climate emergency continues to intensify. Every year in the past decade has been one of the 10 hottest, in records that go back to 1850. Dry weather has persisted in many parts of the world. In May 2025, much of northern and central Europe as well as southern regions of Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey were drier than average. Parts of north-western Europe experienced the lowest precipitation and soil moisture levels since at least 1979. In May 2025, it was drier than average in much of north America, in the Horn of Africa and across central Asia, as well as in southern Australia, and much of both southern Africa and South America. May also saw abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the north-eastern Atlantic, reaching the highest ever recorded, according to Copernicus. - Guardian
