Will hurricane season start early this year? Recent trends suggest yes
Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, but Mother Nature does not always follow that calendar – and it looks like this year could also defy the timeline.
In recent days, some forecasting models have hinted at the possibility of a head start to the 2025 season, showing the potential for storm development—specifically in the western Caribbean where conditions appear more favorable.
In seven of the last 10 years, at least one named storm has formed before June 1. For comparison, there were only three years with early named storms from 2005 to 2014.
After six years of storms forming early, the National Hurricane Center decided in 2021 to start issuing tropical weather outlooks beginning May 15—two weeks earlier than previously done.
Some years have even seen multiple prior to the season's start. There were two ahead-of-schedule named storms in 2012, 2016 and 2020 – and 2020 nearly had three, with Tropical Storm Cristobal forming on June 1.
When a hurricane season starts early, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be more storms.
But there could be cause for concern this year, as the season's poised to be a busy one, with an above-average 17 named storms predicted, according to hurricane researchers at Colorado State University.
Early activity has largely been thanks to unusually warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf basins during the spring. It's a trend meteorologists and climate scientists have been watching for years.
As our climate continues to warm, so do the oceans, which absorb 90% of the world's surplus heat. That can have a ripple effect on tropical systems around the globe.
Warm water acts as fuel for hurricanes, providing heat and moisture that rises into the storm, strengthening it.
CNN Weather
The hotter the water, the more energy available to power the hurricane's growth. And a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which in turn means more fuel for the tropical systems to pull from.
Sea surface temperatures are already incredibly warm for this time of year, especially in the Gulf and southern Caribbean. This means any system passing through those regions could take advantage if other atmospheric conditions are favorable and develop into an early named storm.
In the Caribbean, water temperatures are among some of the warmest on record for early May, and more in line with temperatures found in late June and July.
The green area is where most tropical systems originate on the front end of Atlantic hurricane season. - CNN Weather
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has also seen some preseason activity in recent years, though not as frequent as the Atlantic.
Part of the reason is because the Eastern Pacific season begins two weeks earlier, on May 15. In the last 20 years, the Eastern Pacific basin has only had three named tropical systems prior to that date—Andreas in 2021, Adrian in 2017 and Aletta in 2012.
Another reason is the relationship between the two basins and storm formation. Generally, when the Atlantic basin is more active, the Pacific is less so due to a number of factors, including El Niño and La Niña.
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Washington Post
2 days ago
- Washington Post
50% chance of tropical depression forming off Central America
An area of low pressure may develop off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico early next week. The Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center said Saturday environmental conditions might lead to 'some gradual development,' with a 50% chance of a tropical depression forming within seven days as the system moves west-northwestward. The chance of formation through 48 hours is near 0%, the center said. A category 3 major hurricane came ashore down southern Mexico's Pacific coast on Thursday. Hurricane Erick left a 1-year-old boy dead before dissipating.
Associated Press
2 days ago
- Associated Press
50% chance of tropical depression forming off Central America
An area of low pressure may develop off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico early next week. The Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center said Saturday environmental conditions might lead to 'some gradual development,' with a 50% chance of a tropical depression forming within seven days as the system moves west-northwestward. The chance of formation through 48 hours is near 0%, the center said. A category 3 major hurricane came ashore down southern Mexico's Pacific coast on Thursday. Hurricane Erick left a 1-year-old boy dead before dissipating.
CBS News
2 days ago
- CBS News
Summer solstice 2025 is here, Philadelphia's first heat wave of the year. Here's the forecast.
First day of summer has arrived, first heat wave of 2025 in Philadelphia is underway First day of summer has arrived, first heat wave of 2025 in Philadelphia is underway First day of summer has arrived, first heat wave of 2025 in Philadelphia is underway Welcome to Summer! And right on point, Mother Nature will deliver the first heat wave of the year, which will linger through next Thursday. As a reminder, three consecutive days at or above 90 is considered a heat wave. Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies and increasing humidity. CBS News Philadelphia. By Monday, we are looking at dangerous heat with highs in the upper 90s to 100 and overnight lows near 80. The feels-like heat index will range from 101-107. This dangerous heat will continue through Thursday. At those temperatures, heatstroke and heat exhaustion are possible. The cumulative effect of the heat over six days can lead to additional health problems. Because of this dangerous heat, a NEXT Weather Alert is in place Sunday through Wednesday. CBS News Philadelphia. It is likely we will set some new record highs each day and new record high-lows at night. No organized storms are headed our way, and it should be dry through next Thursday. However, because of the heat and humidity, there is a chance of pop-up storms each day. For some context Last year's first heatwave ran from June 18 to 23, and the last one hit at the end of July. Both topped out at 98°. Our last 100°+ day? July 7, 2012, when we hit 101°. And the longest heatwave on record? A whopping 12 days back in 1901, including two scorchers over 100°. CBS News Philadelphia. It was a picture-perfect summer night in the city. "I definitely wanted to do something outside today," said Anna Parker. "We got some beers. Played some cornhole and just enjoying it now." People were out and about at Eakins Oval, the Art Museum, and up and down the parkway. "I love it. It's like the first weekend we had without rain finally, so we took advantage of it as much as we could," said Nadi Bek. While everyone was enjoying the sunshine and light breeze Friday night, they said they are also thinking about the heat and humidity expected this weekend and how they will stay cool. "Lots of fans, lots of air conditioning," said Jim Hesdon. "Probably have to stay indoors, it's the only way," said Owen McAlynn. Over at the Philadelphia Chinese Lantern Festival at Franklin Square, people were also enjoying the nice weather before the heat takes over. No matter the plans for Friday night, everyone said they are happy to spend time with loved ones outdoors. Here's your 7-day forecast: CBS News Philadelphia. Saturday: Heat wave begins. High 92, Low 68 Sunday: NEXT Weather Alert for extreme heat. High 96, Low 75 Monday: NEXT Weather Alert for extreme heat. High 99, Low 80 Tuesday: NEXT Weather Alert for extreme heat. High 102, Low 81 Wednesday: NEXT Weather Alert for extreme heat. High 99, Low 80 Thursday: Hot & stormy. High 94, Low 76 Friday: Storm chance. High 81, Low 71 NEXT Weather Radars Hourly Forecast
