What you need to know about 3 Alberta byelections as polls open
Tens of thousands of Alberta voters will have a chance to cast ballots during the next week as advanced polls open in three provincial byelections.
Voting begins Tuesday in the ridings of Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills to select three new MLAs.
"It is unusual to have that many by elections at the same time," says Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt. He says "weird things" sometimes happen in these interim votes, when public engagement and turnout is lower than in a general election.
Although turnout in the 2023 provincial election was close to 60 per cent, about 36 per cent of voters cast ballots in a Lethbridge-West byelection held in December 2024, according to Elections Alberta.
WATCH | Byelection time for 3 Alberta ridings:
Everything you need to know about the byelection
12 hours ago
Duration 2:16
Three ridings in Alberta are in need of new elected representatives after losing their MLAs. The CBC's Tristan Mottershead has the details on what residents of Ellerslie, Strathcona and Olds-Disdbury-Three-Hills need to know before the byelection.
3 Alberta provincial byelections called for June 23
Liberals drop Rod Loyola as Edmonton candidate with less than a month to go before polls open
The vacant seats are in Edmonton-Strathcona, where former NDP leader Rachel Notley stepped aside in December; Edmonton-Ellerslie, where past NDP MLA Rod Loyola resigned in March to run in the federal election; and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, where United Conservative Party MLA and legislature Speaker Nathan Cooper relinquished his seat to become Alberta's envoy in Washington, D.C.
NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, who served as Calgary mayor from 2010 to 2021, is running to replace Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona after nearly a year at the helm of the party without a seat in the legislature.
Nenshi is competing with UCP government staffer Darby-Rae Crouch, the Alberta Republican Party's Ravina Chand, Samuel Petrov of the Alberta Party, Don Slater of the Alberta Liberal Party, and Jesse Stretch of the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition.
CBC spoke to three political analysts on Monday who expect Nenshi to comfortably win the contest.
"It is the safest NDP riding in Alberta, provincially," Bratt said.
Although there are some candidate signs on lawns and fences on nearby streets, some voters on Whyte Avenue Monday morning were unaware there was a byelection campaign underway.
Suspense in Edmonton-Ellerslie
Evan Menzies, vice-president of Crestview Strategy, and a former Wildrose Party staffer, says voters are tuned out after a long, high-stakes federal election campaign and trying to enjoy a short Prairie summer.
"Especially when these byelections don't feel like there's anything nearly as dramatic as what we were talking about during the federal election," he said.
The UCP is also looking to capitalize on recent polls that suggest NDP support in Edmonton and Calgary has slipped since the 2023 provincial election, Menzies said.
It could leave Edmonton-Ellerslie, a diverse area in the city's southeast, as the most unpredictable byelection of the three, he said.
"The UCP are throwing everything they've got at that Ellerslie seat," says Deron Bilous, senior vice president for western Canada with Counsel Public Affairs and a former Edmonton NDP MLA.
Former Progressive Conservative MLA Naresh Bhardwaj is running for the UCP. Broadcaster Gurtej Singh Brar won a four-way NDP nomination race.
The riding has been orange since departed MLA Loyola defeated Bhardwaj in 2015. Bilous said even in Edmonton, where the NDP swept every seat in the last provincial election, the result in Ellerslie will hinge on turnout.
"That would be a damaging blow for them to lose a seat in fortress Edmonton," Bratt said. "In a byelection, anything is possible."
Also running in the riding are Carolline Currie for the Alberta Party, the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition's Pamela Henson, Fred Munn of the Republican Party of Alberta and Manpreet Tiwana of the Liberals.
Separatists enter the contest
Menzies says the byelection in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills will be the first barometer of how much Alberta separatist sentiment translates into action at the polls.
Cam Davies, leader of the newly rebranded Alberta Republican Party, which supports separation from Canada, will make a bid there to get the party's first legislature seat.
"It will be interesting to see how much of that is actually baked into reality," Menzies said of polls suggesting growing support for separation.
The UCP candidate is Tara Sawyer, former head of Alberta Grains and Grain Growers of Canada. Beverley Toews is the NDP candidate and Bill Tufts is running for the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition.
Bilous says he thinks Toews will perform better than expected in the rural riding after she packed a town hall meeting in Carstairs.
Although he expects the UCP to hold onto the seat, Bilous said the republicans are consuming some oxygen.
"I just don't know if there's enough votes for anything crazy to happen — like, the NDP comes up the middle because the two conservative parties split the vote," he said.
Advance polls are open in the three ridings from Tuesday to Saturday.
Election day is Monday, June 23, when polls are open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. Electors can also cast a ballot at their local returning office until Monday.
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