Shedeur Sanders' fall out of NFL Draft's first round reflects tape that makes him feel more like a Day 2 pick
Shedeur Sanders went unselected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. It's become the story of the draft, but if we turn our attention to the Colorado signal-caller's film and on-field performance, it might not be much of a surprise.
Remember, this is about what Sanders is as a prospect on the field. Because how a player contributes to winning a game on the field is always — and will always be — the biggest part of a player's résumé. No matter how much noise there is about other things. There's an old scouting line that if Hannibal Lecter ran a 4.3 40, NFL teams would diagnose him with just an eating disorder. So, I don't think a quarterback — you know, the position that teams will do just about anything to find a long-term solution at — that has had a little extra attention on him in his college career would dissuade any interested teams if they like the player's ability enough.
Shedeur Sanders' NFL success might hinge on this
I'll start with this profile of Sanders with what I think will determine whether he has success in the NFL: his feel in the pocket and speeding up the sense of timing that he plays with.
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To cut right to it, Sanders has a bad tendency to drift backward in the pocket.
It puts a real strain on his offensive tackles holding up and can convolute the offensive operation. Stepping up into the pocket, into what can seem like the teeth of the pass rush, like a boxer leaning into a punch, is a habit all quarterbacks have to develop to have success as they rise in all levels of football. Drifting, or bailing, back and out of the pocket creates easier angles for edge rushers and also creates more distance for the quarterback to cover with their throw, or even completely cutting off half of the field from their vision. Long throws become even longer. Tidy route concepts start to unravel. Open windows shut as defenders are given more time to make plays on the football. Drifting back does nothing but make the offense's job harder and the defense's job easier.
Quarterbacks have success at times in the NFL while drifting back in the pocket. It's often only when needed and absolutely (unless you're Jordan Love), and the ones who successfully pull it off showcase the ability to consistently throw off uneven platforms through flexibility, core strength, and arm power and talent.
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Quarterbacks can also have success while bailing too often from clean pockets. But those players are typically exceptional athletes, or do so with a path in their head for earning a first down. The better athletes mitigate the angle advantages of talented NFL pass rushers with speed, strength and athleticism of their own. If a college quarterback shows that he's unable to consistently get the angle on college defenders, even against non-NFL caliber defenders, I look to see if that player is able to be a clean pocket operator so they don't have to constantly enter creation mode. Because relying on extending plays for success, without the required traits to do so, has not been a long-term recipe for quality play in the NFL.
So while Sanders has bad tendencies, ones that improved from 2023 but are still below an adequate level, the real concern with those habits is his lack of overwhelming traits to overcome them. (Sanders also measured at under 6-foot-2 at the NFL scouting combine and has a slighter build, weighing in at 212 pounds.)
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When Sanders has a clean pocket, he can fire the football. Especially when he's confident with the look.
And when he plants his foot and takes a clean rushing lane, he can be an efficient runner and scrambler, even able to make at least one defender miss in space.
Sanders' arm strength is above the baseline for a starting NFL quarterback. His film has plenty of go-balls with an ideal arc and ropes over the middle of the field like in the video above.
The concern is how he's able to access that arm strength. Right now, his best throws are from pockets that he's able to hitch up into or when moving to his right (because his flexibility limits the torque he's able to put into throws when moving to the left).
When Sanders has to throw flatfooted or from less-than-ideal platforms, his accuracy, along with his willingness and ability to push the football, start to decrease as well. That limits the possibility of explosive plays as soon as any heat is felt in the pocket. Again, when he has a clean read and area to throw from, he can toss a tight spiral with great ball placement. But if he has to progress and doesn't feel like he can move up into the throw, his decision-making and accuracy start to waver. Not in the sense of putting the ball in harm's way, but more of taking any chances at all. When moved off his original launch point, Sanders' eyes start to come down and look at the pass rush and to his underneath routes. His aggression starts to dip as well.
More things that could limit Sanders in the NFL
Overall, Sanders doesn't tend to push the football outside of a sprinkling of outside vertical throws and a few dig routes. His minus-1.8 average air yards to the first-down marker ranked 132nd among 147 qualifying FBS quarterbacks over the past two seasons, per TruMedia. Pressure and blitzes don't result in downfield explosive plays for Sanders, rather in throwaways, sacks, or short gains that become reliant on his teammates ability to break a tackle.
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There just aren't a lot of throws where Sanders is shortcutting his operation to throw a receiver open. Last week, I described Cam Ward as a creative thrower. Sanders just doesn't show that same attribute. In fact his throwing style can be a bit robotic and mechanical. Almost too refined and elongated, and creating a smaller room for error with where he can place the football.
His longer throwing motion also lengthens the operation needed to take advantage of windows that he's unable to anticipate, allowing coverage defenders to close quickly on throws and also allowing pass rushers to get their hands up and bat the ball down. (Sanders had 21 passes batted down at the line of scrimmage over the past two seasons, fifth-most among FBS quarterbacks over that time, per PFF.)
Sanders seemed to be uneven with his confidence on reading out certain concepts. At times he showed willingness to stand in the pocket and progress, while later in the game he abandoned reading out the concept right away despite a clean pocket. With a longer throwing motion and need for a cleaner platform, Sanders' ability to anticipate from the pocket becomes paramount.
Just how much did Colorado's O-line and WRs impact Sanders?
The situation around Sanders at Colorado must also be noted. His offensive line was definitely not among the nation's best, but the group was more below-average to even average for a college unit, as opposed to (sorry to strawman it a bit here) one of the worst units you've ever seen. He had moments of getting overwhelmed by better pass rushes, but was also reasonably sound in sorting out blitzes (Colorado had a former NFL head coach as offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur and a former NFL lineman as a line coach in Phil Loadholt). The Buffaloes were also somewhat consistent at buying enough time for the offense to operate.
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And while stats are noisy, especially at the college level, the pressure rates allowed by Colorado's offensive line matches what the film shows: a line that can get the job done but falls apart the longer the play goes. Colorado ranked 77th out of 134 FBS schools in pressure rate allowed on passes thrown within 3 seconds, and 33rd on passes taking 2.5 seconds or fewer, but 121st on passes that took longer than 3 seconds.
Again, there is noise with these numbers because they are so dependent on other factors, but Colorado's offensive line improved to a tolerable level in 2024. Sanders' sack and pressure-to-sack rates also dropped from alarming (10.2% sack rate and 25.1% pressure-to-sack rate) to more acceptable rates (7.7%, 19.7%), though still on the higher end (his combined rates of 8.9% and 22.4% ranked 136th and 122nd, respectively, among 147 qualifying QBs over the past two seasons). I'm sure Colorado's high pass rate also didn't help the perception.
Sanders' receivers, while talented and able to create big plays in their own right, also played with a lack of consistent detail that would muddy up reads for Sanders. It forced him to ad-lib as his first read starts to take a detour mid-play.
While overall Travis Hunter, Will Sheppard, and others would make exceptional plays on contested catches, there were times that their unevenness would have a trickle-down effect on how much confidence Sanders could play with. How can a quarterback throw with anticipation if he can't even rely on his receiver actually being there at the right time? (A side note: Colorado's receivers and linemen should be commended with how well they sort out blocking on things like screens and bubbles. They were excellent in that area and it contributed to a lot of their big plays, which makes their lack of detail in other areas so curious.)
Shedeur Sanders' upside? Efficient distributor with infectious toughness
Sanders' toughness must also be noted. He took a beating over the past two years, and no matter the shot he took — including some that I would describe as complete cheap shots — he got up and was right out there on the next play. Some of his best throws on film are when he's staring down the barrel and unperturbed by the oncoming pass rush.
And if there is one thing that can win over a locker room as a quarterback, it's being a tough SOB.
Overall, Sanders' uneven feel from the pocket, and the continued work he needs on progressing through concepts and shortening his operation time, makes me think of him as more of a project than an early starter, much less impact player, at the next level.
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Combined with traits that I would describe more as 'fine' than outstanding, I want to emphasize that Sanders' projection needs to be properly gauged. His upside is as an efficient pocket passer who can toss in a scramble or two to move the chains. A player who is a distributor rather than pure creator or playmaker. A Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater or Alex Smith (sans the plus-running ability). He has the upside of a solid starter and efficient operator of an offense, but one who needs a good amount of help around him.
There is always a chance for more, as players make all kinds of unexpected and exciting leaps at the next level, but Sanders has plenty to work on with how he maneuvers and operates from the pocket to even make that first step toward being a tangible starter at the next level. He might not have the elite traits, but there are paths to get there as long as his operation continues to be refined and he has a decent (or decent enough line) blocking for him and allowing him to develop.
Teams picking high in the draft don't have the luxury of time. Or, usually, a quality offensive line to point at. Where quarterbacks go in the draft will always be inflated, but Sanders has the profile of a player I'd be more comfortable taking somewhere on Day 2, rather than early in the first round.
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