Why Hollywood Is Training for Jobs That Don't Yet Exist
Last week's column on the rise of vertical dramas prompted a heartfelt text from a friend who's worked in film and TV sound for two decades.
'Blerrgh. Time to reskill, methinks,' he wrote. 'This article made me really see the writing in the sky once and for all.'
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I reminded him not to shoot the messenger. Truthfully, I left my conversation with Yun Xie feeling curious, even excited, about what might come next for the format. These may never evolve into masterpieces of storytelling (a tall order when a script must deliver an emotional cliffhanger every 90 seconds), but the business around them is growing. And with that growth comes the potential for new companies, new markets, and new opportunities, even if we can't see them clearly yet.
And that's the real problem: We can't see. The last five years have been an Arrakis-level sandstorm — Covid, strikes, AI, the slow collapse of legacy film and TV. It's exhausting to keep moving forward without a clear view of the path ahead.
We can take some comfort in the fact that even futurists are fumbling.
Last week, I attended both CAA's Amplify conference and Runway's AI Film Festival. They cater to different audiences, but their underlying messages were the same: The future is coming, we think it's exciting, but still can't say exactly what that looks like.
'We are now training for jobs that do not yet exist,' said Bruce Markoe, IMAX's head of post and image capture, speaking at the AI Film Festival in Santa Monica on June 12.
In a casual press chat before 10 shorts screened at The Broad Stage, he and Runway founder Cristóbal Valenzuela both admitted they didn't know what's next. However, they argued that history suggests we should remain optimistic.
'People were freaking out when talkies were around,' Markoe said. 'The argument was people are going to lose their jobs and the reality said yes, there were jobs that changed and… there [are] jobs that need to change. We assume that efficiency means lower of everything and… it's actually the opposite. There are going to be new industries. The thing is it's really hard to understand those industries. We have never experienced them before. Trying to understand visual effects in the 1920s was unthinkable until we got there.'
Valenzuela said he believed that 'there's going to be all kinds of new positions that need to be created to work with AI tools that are not existing today. Is it equal? I can't tell you that. I dunno. But there's definitely a shift that's going to happen.'
Kind of?
The shorts were fine. Aesthetics have improved since last year. So has interest: Valenzuela said they received over 6,000 submissions, compared to a few hundred in 2023.
Still, the tech has a way to go. Basic elements of cinematic language, like character consistency, often fall short. Many films felt like conceptual collages seeking the right tools to bring their visions to life.
One highlight was Riccardo Fusetti's 'Editorial,' which visualizes the thoughts racing through a young woman's mind before she answers a question. The concept was sharp, although the chaotic imagery and uncanny valley left it feeling more like a promising rough draft.
A similar mood emerged at CAA's Amplify conference at Montage Laguna Beach on June 10.
Speaking with CAA agent Alex Mebed, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman traced a familiar pattern: From the printing press to podcasts to generative AI, new tech lowers the barrier to entry and opens the door to more creators.
And with that comes aggressive competition, major disruption, and redistribution of jobs, power, and income.
'We've got to be open about that,' Suleyman said.
At this point, everyone is open about that. The question is, how much longer do we have to wait?
Maybe that impatience is misplaced. Even as vertical dramas and AI have their days, A24's old-fashioned 'Materialists' — Celine Song's original IP, a rom-com, shot on 35mm for pete's sake — opened this weekend to $12 million.
That success is every bit as real as, say, the latest round of studio layoffs. In its analysis last weekend, the L.A. Times reflected on last year's mantra, 'Survive until '25,' and suggested that it's morphed into something bleaker:
'Exist until '26.'
Solid advice, but maybe it's time to retire the aphorisms. Rhymes aren't making the future arrive any faster.
See you next week,
Dana
5. Should You Work for Free? by Kathi Carey
Building a career in the arts requires finding a way to charge money for something you likely loved enough to do for free at one point. This post from filmmaker Kathi Carey's Indie Film Substack explores the nuances of charging for creative work and the challenge of maximizing your earning potential without costing yourself relationships and opportunities that could emerge from unpaid work.
4. Micro-Series: A Manifesto by Jon Stahl
Did last week's In Development about vertical dramas leave you curious about the future of short-form storytelling? Newsletter favorite Jon Stahl offers his vision for a future of 60-second storytelling, in which the medium could expand to other genres and expand its storytelling ambitions.
3. Let's Talk About… The New Media Circuit and What That Means for Indie Film by KLA Media Group
Everyone trying to make an independent film has been bombarded with the (true) sentiment that your job doesn't end after the film premieres or finds distribution. Filmmakers need to be more involved in their films' marketing than ever before, and this post from the always excellent Marketing & PR for Indie Films, Creatives & Small Businesses newsletter offers a look at some of the new avenues that have emerged for filmmakers to promote their work.
2. Building a Forever Franchise by Will Harrison
This article from the Brands to Fans Substack offers a detailed look at one of the biggest paradoxes facing Hollywood: studios and streamers are more reliant on IP than ever before, yet the value of legacy entertainment brands is waning as a new generation of audiences grows up in an era in which movies are no longer the dominant form of pop culture. Harrison breaks down the process of finding a new franchise in 2025, explaining how producers are looking to newer sources of IP and monetizing it differently.
1. Theatrical Distribution for Independent Filmmakers | Annalisa Shoemaker by Kinema for Filmmakers
Festival sales and other traditional forms of distribution are harder than ever to come by, but there is still value to be created by filmmakers who take theatrical distribution into their own hands. This interview with independent distribution consultant Annalisa Shoemaker breaks down the considerations that go into planning your own theatrical run and the pitfalls to avoid.
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