Analysis: Iran isolated in war against Israel
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the site of the Weizmann Institute of Science, which was hit by an Iranian missile barrage, in the central city of Rehovot on Friday. Pool photo by Jack GUEZ/UPI | License Photo
BEIRUT, Lebanon, June 20 (UPI) -- Iran, which has spent decades nurturing a network of well-armed proxies to expand its influence in the region and shield itself from direct military confrontation, now finds itself on its own in the war that Israel had long been preparing to launch.
Iran's military proxies -- especially Hezbollah, once considered its most powerful -- have been significantly weakened by Israel and no longer pose a serious threat, according to military and political analysts.
Israel began to attack Iran last Friday, targeting nuclear and military facilities and killing top military commanders and nuclear scientists, claiming its archenemy was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons.
The war quickly escalated, with Iran retaliating with missile and drone strikes while insisting that its nuclear program is intended solely for peaceful purposes. More than ever, both countries regard each other as existential threats.
While Iran refuses to "surrender" or resume nuclear talks "under fire," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears intent on drawing the United States into the war to help finish the job.
Concern is also growing over what Iran's proxies might do to support it if the conflict escalates further and threatens the very existence of the Iranian regime. Probably not much, as their own existence is at stake.
Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said that these militias were "like layers of defense for Iran," which invested a lot in them just to be able to spread its influence in the region and to keep wars and military confrontations away from its borders.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has gradually dismantled these layers; destroying Hamas in Gaza, severely weakening Hezbollah in Lebanon, and, to some extent, containing the Houthis in Yemen.
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria last December delivered the most devastating blow yet to Iran's so-called "Axis of Resistance," according to Kahwaji.
"All this has basically paved the way for the military operation in Iran. ... The Israelis wouldn't have launched this war if they hadn't removed those layers first," he told UPI. "Now, whatever remains of these proxies still poses a threat, but they no longer constitute the major threat they once did."
Would Hezbollah risk getting involved in the ongoing, devastating war between Israel and Iran?
The militant group has kept a low profile since the Nov. 27 cease-fire that ended its 14-month war with Israel. Despite continued Israeli strikes on suspected positions and the assassination of its new field commanders, Hezbollah has so far refrained from retaliating.
Hezbollah, once well-armed by Iran to deter Israeli attacks and defend Tehran's interests, seems unlikely to enter the conflict -- at least for now, according to Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Could Hezbollah be ordered to join the battle if the regime in Tehran feels it is facing an existential threat? Yacoubian argued that it's hard to see how Hezbollah in its current state could mount a significant threat to Israel.
"Even if Tehran feels that it is facing an existential threat, it is hard to imagine ordering Hezbollah into the fight would make a significant difference," she told UPI. "It's unlikely."
In addition to Hezbollah's capabilities having shrunk considerably, its fighters are no longer on the Israeli border and cannot launch any surprise ground offensive.
In line with the cease-fire agreement, Hezbollah can no longer maintain military positions in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River and should be disarmed. The Lebanese Army has been deploying in the southern region, where it took control of Hezbollah's military infrastructure.
But what could change?
Kahwaji refers to an apparent division within Hezbollah, with the "ideologues" who are linked to Iran and its regime ideologically and the "pragmatics" who realized that the game is over and that entering the confrontation would be "a suicide and will not save Iran of its fate."
Lebanon's top officials have been exerting pressure on Hezbollah to prevent the country, which is still recovering from the recent Israel-Hezbollah war, from being dragged into the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.
They have received a clear U.S. warning that any involvement in the conflict would restart Israel's war on Lebanon, something they want to avoid at any cost by preventing Hezbollah or other Iran-backed militant groups, primarily Hamas, from launching attacks or firing rockets into Israel from Lebanese territory to support Iran.
Lebanon cannot afford another conflict after more than 20,000 people have been killed or wounded since October 2023, when the war started in support of Gaza. The Israelis' relentless strikes and bombardment caused widespread destruction estimated by the World Bank at $11 billion.
Such a destruction left some of Hezbollah's Shiite popular base "not really excited" about coming to the aid of Iran especially when Tehran "did not come to their rescue when they were under fire," according to Kahwaji.
However, there remains a risk that Hezbollah "could take action" if the United States becomes directly involved in military escalation against Iran, said David Wood, a senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Wood argued that Hezbollah knows Israel could retaliate with a military campaign against Lebanon, and its responses will be "disproportionate and so severe."
"It would be difficult for Hezbollah to justify it," he said, noting that the militant group has adopted a strategy of avoiding trouble since the cease-fire accord was achieved. "It makes absolutely no sense to get involved in this new conflict."
The question is whether a war between Israel and Iran, along with the weakening of the Tehran regime, could accelerate efforts to disarm Hezbollah.
After all, Iran's deterrence strategy has collapsed, largely because Iran and Hezbollah failed to recognize that Israel fundamentally changed after October 2023, Wood said.
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