Middle East tensions push investors to weigh worst-case scenarios
The escalating Iran-Israel conflict has mainly impacted oil markets, with Brent crude futures soaring 18% to US$79.04 since June 10. (EPA Images pic)
NEW YORK : Investors are mulling a host of different market scenarios should the US deepen its involvement in the Middle East conflict, with the potential for ripple effects if energy prices skyrocket.
They are honed in on the evolving situation between Israel and Iran, which have exchanged missile strikes, and are poised for action if the US decides to join Israel in its bombing campaign.
That would likely cause an initial selloff in equities and possible safe-haven bid for the dollar on concerns US military action against Iran would send inflation higher, dampening consumer confidence and lessening the chance of near-term interest rate cuts.
The move by the US to deploy B-2 bombers to Guam on Saturday has caught the attention of market participants. While the bombers could be used to deliver the 30,000-pound bombs able to destroy Iran's underground nuclear programme facilities, it is unclear whether the move is tied to Middle East events.
The move 'just underscores the administration's willingness to threaten to intervene,' said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital LLC.
'I think this will help oil prices stay higher; the easy direction for them right now is up at this point,' Spindel added.
While US West Texas Intermediate crude prices (WTI) have climbed some 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 has been little changed, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks.
However, if attacks were to take out Iranian oil supply, 'that's when the market is going to sit up and take notice,' said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.
'If you get disruption to supply of oil product on the global marketplace, that is not reflected in today's WTI price and that is where things get negative,' Hogan said.
The White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump would decide on US involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Israeli officials, however, have told the Trump administration they do not want to wait the two weeks and that Israel could act alone before the deadline is up, two sources said.
Analysts at Oxford Economics modeled three scenarios, including a de-escalation in the conflict, a complete shutdown in Iranian production, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, 'each with increasingly large impacts on global oil prices,' the firm said in a note.
In the most severe case, global oil prices jump to around US$130 per barrel, driving US inflation near 6% by the end of this year, Oxford said in the note.
'Although the price shock inevitably dampens consumer spending because of the hit to real incomes, the scale of the rise in inflation and concerns about the potential for second-round inflation effects likely ruin any chance of rate cuts in the US this year,' Oxford said in the note.
Oil impact
The biggest market impact from the escalating conflict has been restricted to oil, with oil prices soaring on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies. Global benchmark Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near five-month high of US$79.04 on Thursday.
The accompanying rise in investors' expectations for further near-term volatility in oil prices has outpaced the rise in volatility expectations for other major asset classes, including stocks and bonds.
But other asset classes, including stocks, could still feel the knock-on effects of higher oil prices, especially if there is a larger surge in oil prices if the worst market fears of supply disruptions come true, analysts said.
'Geopolitical tensions have been mostly ignored by equities, but they are being factored into oil,' Citigroup analysts wrote in a note.
'To us, the key for equities from here will come from energy commodity pricing,' they said.
Stocks unperturbed
US stocks have so far weathered rising Middle East conflict with little sign of panic. A more direct US involvement in the conflict could, however, spook markets, investors said.
As the days pass, Potomac River Capital's Spindel said, markets have become increasingly focused on the Middle East.
'The stock market can only digest one thing at a time, and right now we're all focused on if, whether and when the US enters this conflict.'
Economists warn that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs.
Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead.
On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro.
Dollar woes
An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the US dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished US exceptionalism.
In the event of US direct engagement in the Iran-Israel war, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said.
'Traders are likely to worry more about the implicit erosion of the terms of trade for Europe, the UK, and Japan, rather than the economic shock to the US, a major oil producer,' Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note.
But longer-term, the prospect of US-directed 'nation-building' would probably weaken the dollar, he said.
'We recall that after the attacks of 9/11, and running through the decade-long US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the USD weakened,' Wizman said.
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