Colorado State University updates its 2025 hurricane season forecast
A balm of stifling Saharan dust and tepid water temperatures in the deep Atlantic have subdued early tropical development this hurricane season, but that's no reason to relax.
Colorado State University's forecast for above average activity this season remains unchanged in its regular June update.
The report, issued June 11, maintains the university's prediction first made in April for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes. Of the nine hurricanes, four are forecast to become major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
While it's not unusual for June to remain quiet — the average first named storm doesn't appear until June 20 — some tropical meteorologists have described the early days of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that began June 1 as 'sluggish' and 'docile.'
Just one area has so far been highlighted by the National Hurricane Center for potential development on June 2 and it never got above a 10% chance before fizzling two days later.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher with CSU and the lead author of the forecast, said early season activity, or lack thereof, doesn't foreshadow what will happen later in the season.
'Compared to the last few years maybe it's sluggish because the odds of having a Category 5 in the Caribbean are pretty low,' Klotzbach said.
More: 2025 hurricane season could see degraded forecasts because of weather service cuts
Last year, Beryl formed on June 30. It quickly strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on July 2 in the southeastern Caribbean, making it the earliest Cat 5 on record in the Atlantic basin.
CSU's prediction is partly based on the unlikelihood that a storm-thwarting El Niño will form, and above average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean. Unlike previous years, the water temperatures in portions of the main development region between Africa and the Caribbean are mostly normal or even slightly cooler than normal.
Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, renamed by the U.S. government as Gulf of America, continue to be near record warm. Warm water provides fuel for tropical cyclones to form and intensify.
Klotzbach called the signals used to make this year's seasonal forecast in some areas of the tropics 'murky' and said there's likely to be a clearer picture of what's in store in CSU's update next month, which is scheduled for release July 9.
'There's still a lot of time for the tropics to lock in on what they are going to be,' Klotzbach said. 'It's kind of a mixed bag. Not every season is busy or quiet, some are dead on average.'
Mother Nature is not making this season easy to predict, with the atmosphere expected to be in a neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. An El Niño pattern typically points to a less active season. A La Niña pattern can mean a more active season. Neutral can lean either way, but averages two to three more named storms than a normal season.
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AccuWeather also left its seasonal forecast unchanged in a recent update, although lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said he believes a named storm in June is possible in the northwest Caribbean or Bay of Campeche.
AccuWeather forecast between 13 and 18 named storms, seven to ten hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes.
DaSilva said cooler water temperatures in the main runway between Africa and the Caribbean could mean fewer of the ferocious Cabo Verde hurricanes that form close to Africa and stalk across Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center forecasts for the myriad tropical waves in that area because they can be the seedlings of tropical cyclones, but of the estimated 60 waves that tumble off the coast each hurricane season only a fraction become hurricanes.
DaSilva is more fearful of storms rapidly intensifying, especially near a coastline where people may not have as much time to get out of harm's way.
'The Gulf is on fire, and that's a concern,' DaSilva said. 'You might see a tropical storm near the islands and all of a sudden it's a major hurricane on someone's doorstep.'
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane season 2025 updated forecast released by Colorado State
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