Monsoon to advance further, predicts IMD
Conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha; some parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and even some parts of Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh during next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
Monsoon is likely to be in an active phase with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rain (>20 cm) at isolated places over south peninsular India, Konkan and Goa till June 16.
Over the weekend, monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea; some parts of north Arabian Sea, Gujarat, remaining parts of Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana; some parts of Madhya Pradesh; some more parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha. The Northern Limit of Monsoon passes through Veraval, Bhavnagar, Vadodara, Khargone, Amravati, Durg, Bargarh, Chandbali, Sandhead Island and Balurghat. HT reported on Saturday that after a hiatus of a fortnight, conditions have become favourable for further advancement of the southwest monsoon. The long hiatus was mainly due to weaker monsoon flow and dry air intrusion from northwest, according to experts.
'Easterly winds have strengthened due to a cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal. Parts of Gujarat and Mumbai saw very heavy rain today. Monsoon will cover MP, West Bengal, Odisha, east UP etc soon. Monsoon may reach Delhi before or near the normal date,' said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
'A cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal next week. This will lead to an increase in rainfall. Rainfall activity will expand westwards and monsoon will cover nearly the entire country, including all of northwest India in the week of June 19 and June 25,' M Mohapatra, director general, IMD said on Friday.
Further, monsoon is likely to advance over most parts of northwest India during the week of June 19 to 25, IMD has said in its extended range forecast on Thursday. This is earlier than expected. Maximum temperatures are likely to decrease over northwest India during that week. These are likely to be below normal over most parts of the country, IMD has said.
An upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood in lower and middle tilting southwestwards. An upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over south Gujarat and neighbourhood. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region during the next 24 hours. It is likely to move north-northwestwards and become more marked during the subsequent 24 hours. An upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over south Punjab and another over northeast Punjab and neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels. A western disturbance is impacting the western Himalayan region. An upper air cyclonic circulation is also lying over northeast Assam and neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels.
Under the influence of these conditions, light/moderate rainfall at some/isolated places accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph are likely over northwest India till June 22 with thundersquall (wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph) over Rajasthan on June 16 and 17.
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand, east Uttar Pradesh till June 22; Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh on June 21 and 22; Punjab, Haryana, east Rajasthan on June 21 and 22; west Uttar Pradesh and west Rajasthan on June 19 and 22.
Monsoon delivers nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall and remains vital for the economy. About 51% of India's farmed area, accounting for 40% of agricultural production, is rain-fed, with 47% of the population dependent on agriculture for livelihood. Consistent and moderate amounts of rain – as opposed to heavy or very heavy rainfall days – is thus crucial for the country's agriculture and rural sector. Such balanced rainfall helps control prices of staples such as sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables, potentially easing inflation concerns.
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