Fed may already be late to cutting rates again, strategist argues
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. But Laffer Tengler Investments CEO and chief investment officer Nancy Tengler thinks that given the Fed's tendency to rely on backward-looking data, the central bank has been late "at every turning point" and may already be late to cutting rates again.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here.
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Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US attack on Iran adds to economic uncertainty
By Ann Saphir (Reuters) -The U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear sites injected fresh uncertainty into the outlook for inflation and economic activity at the start of a week chock full of new economic data and central banker commentary, including two days of Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The downside of the attacks may be the easiest to see: the potential for a spike in energy prices, a continuation of the hesitancy that has gripped households and businesses and could crimp spending, and the possibility of a response from Iran that materializes well outside the Gulf. With the U.S. economy already expected to slow under pressure from the Trump administration's high import tariffs, a rise in oil prices resulting from the conflict "could provide powerful downward pressure on households' ability to spend... and that could slow GDP even more," Morgan Stanley Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner said on Sunday. There's also the more bullish case, should the attacks pave the way for eventual stability in the region. "Predicting geopolitical developments in the Middle East is a treacherous exercise," analysts at Yardeni Research wrote after the attacks. "However, the Israeli stock market suggests that we may be witnessing a radical transformation of the Middle East now that Iran has been de-nuked." Israel's Tel Aviv main index .TA125 was at an all-time high after the attacks. That said, the U.S. labor market is clearly losing momentum, even as inflation pressures look set to increase. Data due on Thursday for continued jobless claims will factor into the Labor Department's monthly jobs report for June. To date those reports have pointed to a softening but still-solid job market, with the unemployment rate at a relatively low 4.2%, but Fed policymakers keenly watching for signs of deterioration. Data to be published on Friday is expected to show the weakest U.S. consumer spending growth since January. And while it is also expected to show inflation running near the Fed's 2% goal last month, many Fed officials expect tariffs to feed into higher prices in coming months. A sharp rise in energy prices could fan the embers of inflation further. Powell will undoubtedly be pressed on that possibility and for other ramifications of Middle East developments during two days of Congressional testimony, beginning Tuesday at the House Financial Services Committee and continuing on Wednesday at the Senate Banking Committee. Fed officials last week left the policy rate in its current 4.25%-4.50% range, and while policymakers signaled they felt economic conditions would likely warrant a couple of interest-rate cuts later this year, Powell said that forecast comes with little conviction, given all the uncertainty about tariff policy and how the economy will respond. The weekend's U.S.-Iran developments raise new questions about how uncertainty will impact Fed decision-making, wrote Wells Fargo senior economist Sam Bullard. "The markets will be watching for clues as to how the Fed recalibrates the inflationary risks from higher energy prices and tariffs against the disinflationary pressures of slowing growth," he said. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
30 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran
Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran originally appeared on TheStreet. The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday changes the focus of what's ahead for the U.S. economy in the last full week of June. Because everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do, other than fire missiles on Israel. That's what happened late Saturday. 💵💰💰💵 The three biggest questions a day later: How will energy and stock markets react? Does Iran still have enough enriched uranium to make and deploy a small nuclear weapon? Will Iran move to block the ships from passing from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz into global shipping lanes? Outside geopolitics, economic events coming up include Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress on Tuesday and an important inflation nuclear question is on the table because U.S. officials weren't sure Sunday if the attacks on facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan actually destroyed nuclear materials. Vice President J.D. Vance, in fact, suggested that Iran's nuclear stock pile is still intact. If that's the case, it's possible Iran could assemble a first-generation weapon. That would be as powerful as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, Robert Pape of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats told MSNBC's Alex Witt on Sunday. Not having this awful idea become reality depends on cooler heads prevailing. A key issue: If Iran is willing to discuss destroying or otherwise ceding control its nuclear development efforts. The Trump Administration is threatening more attacks if Iran rejects the demand. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's crude oil passes — headed mostly to China, India and Asia — will send global oil prices surging and, ultimately, will boost gasoline prices in the United States and elsewhere. Stocks and bonds also would slump. Crude oil futures in New York opened up nearly $3 a barrel, then fell back quickly. At 7:30 p.m. EDT, crude was was up $2.12 to $75.99. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped to as high as $81.40, then fell back to $79.20 per barrel, up $2.19 Crude oil settled at $73.84 a barrel on Friday, up 34 cents. or 1.2%, from Thursday and up 21.5% so far in June. AAA's daily report on gasoline prices put the U.S. average at $3.218 a gallon, down slightly from Saturday's $3.129. Stock index futures were lower in early trading Sunday with S&P 500 futures off 28 points to 5,990. Futures based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down just 184 points to 42,333. Nasdaq-100 futures had fallen 137 points to 21,710. Stocks overall were flat last week even as global tensions heated up. Some defense-oriented stocks slipped on Friday. Palantir Technologies () was off 2% to $137.30. Lockheed Martin () , however, was up 0.4% to $470.56. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is always verbally battered by President Trump, will testify before the Congress twice this week. 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More Economic Analysis: Federal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest rates Massive city workers union approves strike Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold The most important economic report this coming week is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), due Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation rate. The index for May is expected to show a 2.3% year-over-year index. The core index, stripping out food and energy, is expected to rise 2.6%, up slightly from April. The inflation rate is still the lowest since March 2021, Barrons says. Four reports come this week that will help clarify the condition of the housing market. Existing homes sales for May, due Monday from the National Association of Realtors. Most estimates are around 4.1 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, up From April's 4 million rate. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, due Tuesday from Standard & Poor's. New-home sales, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department. Pending home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Home Builders. S&P Global reports its flash purchasing manager index reports for June. These measure what manufacturing and services companies are actually buying. The Conference Board comes out with its monthly Consumer Confidence Index report for June Tuesday morning It may show a slight gain because the data were collected as stocks were rallying after April's stock-market slump. The University of Michigan offers its revised Consumer Sentiment Index report on Friday. Its early version suggested consumers were a touch less worried and cited the market up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 23, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 23, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio


CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
Gold subdued as dollar gains, markets await Iran response
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors favored the dollar following the U.S. attack on key Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, with markets closely watching for Iran's response. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,362.29 an ounce, as of 0341 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $3,378. "The US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities resulted in the dollar receiving safe haven buying flows in the currency market," KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said. "This USD uptick had pegged gold back and caused an uncharacteristically subdued performance from the precious metal despite risks stemming from the conflict." The dollar rose 0.2% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. USD/ U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday raised the question of a regime change in Iran following U.S. strikes against key military sites over the weekend, as senior officials in his administration warned Tehran against retaliation. Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs onto the mountain above Iran's Fordow nuclear site. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel continued to trade volleys of missile attacks. An Israeli military spokesperson said Israeli fighter jets had struck military targets in western Iran. Shares slipped in Asia on Monday and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs, but there were no signs of panic selling across markets. The Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy report to Congress, released on Friday, said U.S. inflation remained somewhat elevated and the labor market was solid. On the technical front, spot gold may retest support at $3,348 per ounce, a break below could open the way toward $3,324, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.2% at $36.07 per ounce, platinum edged 0.1% higher to $1,269.17, while palladium gained 0.2% to $1,046.62.