Singapore Diplomat Bilahari Kausikan Says U.S. Has Long-term Competitive Strategy with China
Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told The Yomiuri Shimbun that the United States' tariff policy is part of a long-term competitive strategy against China, and Washington will continue to have the same policy even after the president changes.
The following text, excerpted from his interview, has been edited for flow and clarity.If you look at various things that [U.S. President Donald] Trump and other members said, Trump seemed to think of [the] tariff as a kind of universal tool. He tried to do several things at the same time. He tried to use the tariff as a tool for national security goals to stop drugs and migrants, to reduce the deficit, bring back manufacturing to the U.S., increase revenue.
I personally don't think this policy is sustainable in the long run. The 90-day timeline is running out soon. I won't be surprised if he extended it — in individual cases.
I guess they will extend the timeline for major countries like the U.K., Japan, India and China.
[The U.S. tariff policy] will slow down the U.S. economy, increase inflation and it will hurt Trump's own base.
I think [the tariffs are] dangerous for all of us, at least most of us. But the real danger I think is for low-income countries, and middle-income countries.
For example, how did Japan, South Korea and Singapore become high-income countries? The growth path was the normal one — by exports. It is going to become much more difficult for Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. In fact, it will even become much more difficult for some parts of China. So, I think that's the big danger. Because when you get countries stuck in a real income trap, they will get frustrated. When they get frustrated, there will be a kind of geopolitical problem.
The competition between major powers is quite natural. You can see trade policies in the context of broader strategic competition.
Why does he [Trump] want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.? I think these are all preparations for long-term strategy competition with China. Trade is just one instrument. That is why there is really no difference in this trade policy. There is very little difference anyway between Biden and Trump. I don't know who is going to succeed Trump. Whoever it is, more or less should have the same policy because this strategic competition with China is a long-term thing.
He's also concerned about transshipment from China, to Southeast Asia to the U.S. That is going to be a big problem for countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. It's not just a simple method of smuggling or backdooring.
There are legitimate reasons why Chinese companies are moving to Southeast Asia. It is not all because of tariffs placed on China or geopolitical tensions. China is becoming a more expensive place to produce for many industries. Some Chinese industries are worried about their own government, so they are trying to move their own business out. Those are very legitimate things, and it is going to be not so straightforward for Southeast Asian countries to deal with it.
The U.S. is still a very important market. There is no substitute for the U.S., for anybody. So, every country will make its own calculations — balance or benefit against cost. I don't think we should stop trying to attract Chinese investments or any kind of investment, but we have to be more careful about what kinds of things we work on with China.
Economic integration is politically difficult for any country in any region. If you are in a period of slow growth, it is going to become even more politically difficult. And the hard fact is, while we have plans for economic integration, 10 ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) economies are competitive. Some leaders think that they are competitive.
We need the integration, but whether we will get it is another matter.
You have to make yourself an attractive place for people to want to invest in your country. I think some Asian countries have not done enough to keep themselves attractive.
We hope you will continue to invest in ASEAN. Japan is one of the most important partners for all ASEAN countries. And you will continue to be so. We hope you will not lose faith in Southeast Asia and continue to invest here. On the other hand, I think Southeast Asian countries must do what they can to make themselves attractive for Japanese investments. The responsibility is ours.
— This interview was conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent Takashi Itoda.
Bilahari Kausikan
Kausikan, 71, joined the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1981. He has held posts such as ambassador to the United Nations and assistant secretary for Southeast Asian affairs. He served as permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2010 to 2013. Since retiring, he has spoken actively about the future of ASEAN and is known as a leading voice in Southeast Asia.
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Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told The Yomiuri Shimbun that the United States' tariff policy is part of a long-term competitive strategy against China, and Washington will continue to have the same policy even after the president changes. The following text, excerpted from his interview, has been edited for flow and you look at various things that [U.S. President Donald] Trump and other members said, Trump seemed to think of [the] tariff as a kind of universal tool. He tried to do several things at the same time. He tried to use the tariff as a tool for national security goals to stop drugs and migrants, to reduce the deficit, bring back manufacturing to the U.S., increase revenue. I personally don't think this policy is sustainable in the long run. The 90-day timeline is running out soon. I won't be surprised if he extended it — in individual cases. I guess they will extend the timeline for major countries like the U.K., Japan, India and China. [The U.S. tariff policy] will slow down the U.S. economy, increase inflation and it will hurt Trump's own base. I think [the tariffs are] dangerous for all of us, at least most of us. But the real danger I think is for low-income countries, and middle-income countries. For example, how did Japan, South Korea and Singapore become high-income countries? The growth path was the normal one — by exports. It is going to become much more difficult for Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. In fact, it will even become much more difficult for some parts of China. So, I think that's the big danger. Because when you get countries stuck in a real income trap, they will get frustrated. When they get frustrated, there will be a kind of geopolitical problem. The competition between major powers is quite natural. You can see trade policies in the context of broader strategic competition. Why does he [Trump] want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.? I think these are all preparations for long-term strategy competition with China. Trade is just one instrument. That is why there is really no difference in this trade policy. There is very little difference anyway between Biden and Trump. I don't know who is going to succeed Trump. Whoever it is, more or less should have the same policy because this strategic competition with China is a long-term thing. He's also concerned about transshipment from China, to Southeast Asia to the U.S. That is going to be a big problem for countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. It's not just a simple method of smuggling or backdooring. There are legitimate reasons why Chinese companies are moving to Southeast Asia. It is not all because of tariffs placed on China or geopolitical tensions. China is becoming a more expensive place to produce for many industries. Some Chinese industries are worried about their own government, so they are trying to move their own business out. Those are very legitimate things, and it is going to be not so straightforward for Southeast Asian countries to deal with it. The U.S. is still a very important market. There is no substitute for the U.S., for anybody. So, every country will make its own calculations — balance or benefit against cost. I don't think we should stop trying to attract Chinese investments or any kind of investment, but we have to be more careful about what kinds of things we work on with China. Economic integration is politically difficult for any country in any region. If you are in a period of slow growth, it is going to become even more politically difficult. And the hard fact is, while we have plans for economic integration, 10 ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) economies are competitive. Some leaders think that they are competitive. We need the integration, but whether we will get it is another matter. You have to make yourself an attractive place for people to want to invest in your country. I think some Asian countries have not done enough to keep themselves attractive. We hope you will continue to invest in ASEAN. Japan is one of the most important partners for all ASEAN countries. And you will continue to be so. We hope you will not lose faith in Southeast Asia and continue to invest here. On the other hand, I think Southeast Asian countries must do what they can to make themselves attractive for Japanese investments. The responsibility is ours. — This interview was conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent Takashi Itoda. Bilahari Kausikan Kausikan, 71, joined the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1981. He has held posts such as ambassador to the United Nations and assistant secretary for Southeast Asian affairs. He served as permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 2010 to 2013. Since retiring, he has spoken actively about the future of ASEAN and is known as a leading voice in Southeast Asia.
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