Midcap stocks are seeing a resurgence. These names have solid dividend histories

Midcap stocks are suddenly outperforming – and investors interested in their growth prospects might find a few good dividend payers too. The SPDR S & P Midcap 400 ETF (MDY) just scored its fifth straight winning week. The fund is off to a solid start this week, up 4% over the past two days, after the U.S. and China agreed to suspen higher tariffs for 90 days . Accords on tariffs, like the one reached with the United Kingdom and potentially in the works with China, bode well for smaller companies, which tend to be particularly sensitive to the domestic economy compared to their larger counterparts. "We're engaging with companies that are exposed to tariffs to understand their contingency plans," said Janus Henderson midcap portfolio manager Brian Demain in a recent article . "Many companies are implementing easier fixes they can make quickly, even though they come with cost headwinds," he added. Some economists on Wall Street are also starting to dial back their recession odds as the U.S. paves the way for agreements with trading partners. Goldman Sachs, for example, cut back its 12-month recession forecast to 35% from 45% following the tentative deal with Beijing. Investors hoping to capitalize on this potential tailwind for midcaps and scoop up some income at the same time may be interested in the Proshares S & P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (REGL) . The ETF is up 6.6% in the past month, including reinvested dividends, according to FactSet data, and its constituents include companies that have grown dividends for at least the past 15 years. CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen inside the REGL ETF for stocks that meet the following criteria: A dividend yield of at least 1.5%. Buy ratings from at least 51% of the analysts covering them. At least 10% upside based on consensus price targets. Here are the names we found. UMB Financial Corp made the cut. The company is rated buy or overweight by nearly 73% of the analysts covering the stock, and consensus price targets call for nearly 12% upside from current levels. Shares are down about 4%, and the stock has a dividend yield of 1.5%. Truist Financial analyst Brian Foran rated UMB a buy in a report on Monday, noting, "They are a bank with strongholds in niche fee areas, diverse geographic and sector exposures, and peer-leading fee and [loan-to-deposit] ratios." Earlier this year, UMB closed on its acquisition of Heartland Financial, a move that boosted its total assets by more than 30%, to about $68 billion. "Heartland's relative strength in the consumer segment such as mortgages and cards will help diversify the balance sheet, and UMB's system & scale help these areas grow more effectively," Foran added. Reinsurance Group of America is also showed up on the screen. In all, about 77% of the analysts covering the name rate it the equivalent of buy, with consensus price targets calling for upside of nearly 16%. Shares are down roughly 3% in 2025, and the stock pays a dividend yield of 1.7%. Piper Sandler analyst John Barnidge stuck with his overweight rating on the stock after RGA posted first quarter operating income of $5.66 per share, topping the FactSet consensus call for $5.31 per share. "This is one of the rare names in lifecoland where we have stability in earnings this quarter, which we find very much to be RGA-specific as the traditional business grows greater than expected and continues to deliver favorable claims experience," he said. As a reinsurer, RGA essentially "backs" other insurance companies, providing coverage to help transfer mortality and morbidity risk. "1Q25 demonstrated the mortality-as-a-service flywheel is not just intact but has led to stronger top-line growth in the higher multiple traditional mortality business," Barnidge added. Finally, Essential Utilities turned up on CNBC's list. The company provides drinking water, wastewater treatment infrastructure and natural gas. Shares are up about 3% this year, and the company offers a dividend yield of 3.5%. Essential Utilities on Monday posted first-quarter earnings of $1.03 per share on revenue of $784 million, encouraging Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Michael Gaugler to reiterate a buy rating. "Contributing to the 7.5% increase in water revenues and ~46% increase in natural gas sales were the following: additional revenues from regulatory recoveries, purchased gas costs and higher natural gas volumes," he said in a Monday report. Gaugler added that there have been several data center announcements for facilities to be located within Essential Utilities' natural gas service territory in western Pennsylvania. "All in, it looks like positive momentum building in terms of earnings and future capex opportunities," he said. Other stocks that appeared in CNBC Pro's screen included Equity LifeStyle Properties , Prosperity Bancshares and Unum Group . —CNBC's Fred Imbert contributed reporting.

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Major analysts predict oil prices if Strait of Hormuz blocked

Major analysts predict oil prices if Strait of Hormuz blocked originally appeared on TheStreet. The world has gotten a bit crazy in 2025. An ongoing global trade war has sparked worries about worldwide economic growth, and now Israel and Iran are locked in a battle with missiles flying back and forth, threatening global oil supplies. The potential for a major energy crisis to develop because of the Iran-Israel conflict has caused Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate oil prices to surge, and in turn that's created an entirely new threat to the economy. 💵💰💰💵 The potential for the battle in the Middle East to spread, potentially shutting off oil seaborne transports through the Strait of Hormuz and possibly removing Iranian oil from the global market, has lifted Brent crude and WTI crude per-barrel prices by 18% to $79 and 21% to $75 this month. The situation has captured the attention of Citigroup, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs oil analysts, leading them to reset their oil price targets. President Donald Trump this year has unveiled a string of harsher-than-expected tariffs to rekindle US manufacturing. The moves, which include 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada and autos, plus a 30% tariff on China and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, have forced economists to rethink their global projections for economic growth this instance, earlier this month the World Bank reduced its worldwide gross domestic product forecast to 2.3% from 2.7%, citing tariff uncertainty. Contributing significantly to the reduced outlook is a major downgrade of U.S. growth to 1.4% from 2.3%. The World Bank lowered its U.S. forecast for 2026 to 1.6% from 2%. The Federal Reserve also expects slowing growth in the US because of tariffs' bite. The Fed updated its closely watched Summary of Economic Projections on June 18. It expects unemployment to increase to 4.5% from 4.2%, and projects that Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation — its favored inflation benchmark — will climb to 3% this year from expectations in March for 2.7% inflation. Fed officials expect U.S GDP growth to be just 1.4% in 2025, down from 1.7% in March, and well below the 2.5% growth the US economy delivered in 2024. In China, the World Bank expects slowing activity due to higher tariffs to reduce GDP growth to 4.5% in 2025 from 5% in 2024. In 2026, it expects GDP growth to ease to 4%. The economic situation could get even more uncertain if the Israel-Iran conflict continues to prop up crude oil prices. Oil prices can significantly increase inflation, directly and indirectly, further crimping consumer and business spending. We're already seeing concerning signs that higher oil prices are translating into higher prices at the pump for gasoline. "WTI crude oil $77/barrel, the national average price of gasoline is now $3.21 per gallon and could by next week climb to its highest ever while President Trump has been in office ($3.25/gal)on due to Middle East tensions," wrote GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan on X. Roughly 18 million to 19 million barrels of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz daily, representing 20% of global oil consumption, including crude, condensates and fuel. Its proximity to Iran means it could become an oil chokepoint if Iran acts to block it. The possibility of that happening is "under serious consideration,' said Esmail Kosari, an Iranian parliament member and IRGC general, on June 15. More Economic Analysis: Federal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest rates Massive city workers union approves strike Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold Iran's oil production and its ability to export oil to its largest consumer, China, might also be significantly impaired. Iran is OPEC's third-largest member, producing about 3.3 million barrels per day. Citi estimates that if the conflict disrupts 3 million bpd for multiple months, crude oil prices could reach $90 a barrel from $75 now and from the low-to-mid $60s before Israel attacked Iran over its nuclear-development program. JP Morgan's analysts say that shutting the Strait of Hormuz could catapult crude oil prices to an eye-popping $120 to $130 per barrel. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, says the conflict creates a risk premium of about $10 a barrel. In one scenario, Goldman Sachs's analysts say that if Iran's export infrastructure is damaged to the point that Iran's supply is reduced by 1.75 million barrels a day, "before gradually recovering," and with OPEC+ production offsetting roughly half the reduction, Brent Crude oil would peak at "just over $90/barrel." Goldman Sachs, however, expects that the increase would prove temporary, with prices declining "back to the $60s in 2026 as Iran supply recovers." However, the situation would be worse if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked for an extended period. "While an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 1/5 of global oil production flows, appears much less likely, there is focus from investors and policymakers on this risk, because core OPEC+ producers may be unable to deploy spare capacity in this extreme tail scenario," Goldman's analysts wrote. "Based on our prior analysis, we estimate that oil prices may exceed $100/barrel in an extreme tail scenario of an extended disruption."Major analysts predict oil prices if Strait of Hormuz blocked first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 20, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 20, 2025, where it first appeared.

CNN

6 hours ago

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So, has anything actually gotten more expensive because of Trump's tariffs?

Source: CNN Predictions from mainstream economists were dire after President Donald Trump launched his tariff campaign just a couple weeks after he began his second term in office: Prices would rise — sharply — they said, reigniting an inflation crisis that tens of millions of Americans had elected him to solve. But that massive, tariff-induced inflation spike hasn't materialized. Not even close. Not yet, anyway. Consumer prices rose just 2.4%, annually, last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was less than economists had expected, and only slightly higher than the 2.3% rate in April, which was the US economy's lowest inflation since February 2021. According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index most closely followed by the Federal Reserve, core inflation — which strips out volatile items like food and gas prices — fell to 2.5% in April. That was the lowest reading since March 2021. That's a far cry from what economists and consumers have predicted. Month after month, inflation has fallen short of Wall Street's expectations, as American businesses said they would be forced to hike prices as a result of historically high tariffs. America's effective tariff rate is now 14.1%, according to Fitch Ratings, up from 2.3% last year. That means Trump raised taxes on imported goods by nearly 12 percentage points in 2025. Economists expected substantial inflation increases as a result. Goldman Sachs analysts last month said core goods inflation could hit 6.3% this year and consumer prices would surge 3.7% by early 2026. JPMorgan economists said core inflation would nearly double by the end of this year. And American consumers in May expected prices to rise an alarming 6.6% this year, according to sentiment surveys from the University of Michigan. That prediction fell in June, but consumers still expect inflation to hit 5.1% in 2025. So what happened? Are economists just really bad at their jobs? Not quite. Their predictions may yet come true — and economists are largely cleaving to their bets. America's economy is enormous and complex, and predicting when prices will rise and fall can be an extremely tricky business — particularly when factoring in the on-again, off-again nature of Trump's tariff regime. Still, tariffs through mid-June haven't caused inflation to spike. Love tariffs or hate them, there's no denying inflation is lower now than when Trump took office. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said just a few items are growing in price as a result of tariffs, including electronics that come from China. He said PCs and A/V equipment have become more expensive because of Trump's trade war. But the price increases aren't widespread yet, Powell noted, because stores are still working through the inventory that came in to their warehouses before Trump put tariffs in place. 'Goods being sold at retailers today may have been imported several months ago, before tariffs were imposed,' Powell said. Research firm Telsey Advisory Group, which has been tracking the prices of 80 select consumer items across a wide variety of retail categories, reported this week that just 19 products it has tracked have gained in price since mid-April — and 16 items' prices fell. Similarly, the New York Times' Wirecutter, which recommends consumer products, tracked the prices for 40 of its top picks over the course of two months and found this week that the vast majority didn't change price at all: 10 gained in price and only half of those gained more than 7%. 'There haven't been many significant upticks in prices as of yet given that many retailers are still selling through their lower-cost inventory,' Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer of Telsey Advisory Group told CNN. Even autos, many of which are subject to a 25% tariff, plus a tariff of up to 25% on some imported auto parts, haven't gained in price — they've fallen . New car prices fell 0.2% in May, according to car-buying research site Edmunds, and they rose only 2.5% compared to the pre-tariff period in March. Both new and used car prices fell in May, according to the BLS' Consumer Price Index. That's because dealers are still working through their supply of pre-tariff cars, according to Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds. With prices remaining in check so far, the Trump administration has declared victory. 'They've all been discredited,' said the White House's top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, in an interview last month with CNN, referring to tariffs' detractors. 'What we got in the first term [of Trump's presidency] was not recession or inflation, we got price stability, robust economic growth and rising wages, just as we thought we would.' Navarro has frequently pointed to the low overall inflation during Trump's first term, despite his tariffs. And he's right: CPI peaked at 2.9% in mid-2018 before falling below 2% throughout most of 2019. But Navarro's assertion about the impact of tariffs on the US economy comes with a couple of significant caveats: First, Trump during his current term has already placed tariffs of at least 10% on $2.3 trillion of imported goods, comprising 71% of all US goods imports, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. In his first term, Trump placed tariffs on just $380 billion worth of foreign goods. And second, the pandemic severely disrupted the global economy soon after Trump's tariffs took effect, preventing economists from getting a decent picture of how significantly prices rose. But some data shows prices gained in the specific sectors Trump targeted with his first-term tariffs. For example, after imposing some steel tariffs in 2018, US production expanded modestly, but it sent costs rising for cars, tools and machines; and shrank those industries' output by more than $3 billion in 2021, the International Trade Commission found in a 2023 analysis. Nevertheless, Joseph Lavorgna, a former Wall Street economist turned Treasury Department official, took a victory lap because inflation hasn't risen since Trump imposed tariffs during his second term. 'Tariffs have just not shown up at all in any of the data,' Lavorgna, counselor to the Treasury secretary, told CNN this week. 'The forecasting community has been completely wrong.' Lavorgna, a former SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist who also served in the White House during Trump's first term, said a broad range of inflation metrics suggests foreign producers are absorbing tariffs and that the trade war won't be inflationary. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed that message Thursday during a briefing, saying: 'America is quickly returning to the successful formula of the first Trump administration: low inflation and rising wages.' Many mainstream economists argue that the low inflation of the spring represents a calm before the summer storm, when they expect prices to rise. 'It's a question of when, not if,' Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, told CNN. Walmart, Target, Lululemon, Home Depot and Costco among others have said in recent weeks that they will raise some prices because of tariff pressures. Although some of the big box retailers said they would work to keep most prices low, they acknowledged that they operate low-margin businesses, and in the cases when American-made alternatives are unavailable or more expensive, they expect that they'll have to pass some of that additional cost to their customers. Consumers won't be alone in their struggles with tariffs in the coming months, said said Sid Malladi, CEO of Nuvo, a company that manages businesses' trade partnerships. Price hikes will weigh on businesses, too, many of whom will take on some of the hit to keep prices as low as possible for as long as possible. But that could mean difficult conversations in the boardroom later this year about potential layoffs and other cost cutting. 'This is early innings. No one wants to be first out of the gate,' said Malladi. 'You don't want to risk reputational damage to your brand, because raising prices in this environment might cause customers to turn away from you. Many may eat their margin for a few months.' 'It's hard to overstate the level of anxiety businesses have,' Malladi added. Small businesses, without the supply chain mastery of larger companies, have struggled in particular to afford higher tariff costs and have said they are reducing supply or raising prices. Many have complained that American alternatives for some foreign imports may be unavailable or are too expensive. 'While larger retailers may have the scale, capital and pricing power to absorb or strategically offset these pressures, small and mid-sized players remain significantly more vulnerable, with limited flexibility to manage rising input costs or supply disruptions,' Telsey said in TAG's latest Product Pricing Analysis report. Telsey noted that prices, when they eventually start to rise, won't all gain equally or across the board. Only select goods will start to gain in price to start, likely beginning in late August or September. 'Inventory is ordered typically anywhere from six months to one year in advance, and it is expected that the select pricing pieces will begin to show up in late summer,' she said. Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday agreed that the tipping point for broad consumer price increases could come this summer as inventories of pre-tariff warehoused goods dry up. 'We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer,' Powell said. 'It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.' Normally, retailers hold about 1 to 2 months' worth of inventory on items, noted Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, so prices could begin to rise in the coming weeks. Another indication that prices could start to spike: In April's Institute for Supply Management services report, prices paid by businesses increased the most since November 2022, and business inventories contracted. 'Low inventories make it harder for companies to keep prices steady, so going forward, we expect the inflation impacts from tariffs to become more apparent,' Akullian said. Powell agreed with that timeline, noting companies that report on their business sentiment to the Fed have said they expect to pass those tariff costs on down the supply chain. 'Many, many companies do expect to put all or — some of the effect of tariffs through to the next person in the chain, and ultimately, to the consumer,' Powell said. 'So we're beginning to see some effects. We expect to see more.' Despite initial success at maintaining low prices, Treasury's Lavorgna conceded inflation could begin to rise down the road because of tariffs. 'I'm not saying there can't be a tariff effect on the numbers at some point,' he said. See Full Web Article

Yahoo

14 hours ago

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Korn Ferry price target raised to $85 from $77 at Goldman Sachs

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