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AppLovin Stock Sinks 11%, but Citi Stands Firm on $600 Price Target

AppLovin Stock Sinks 11%, but Citi Stands Firm on $600 Price Target

Yahoo10-03-2025

AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP) shares are down 11.21% to $240.15 as of 13:41 ET Monday, extending a steep sell-off that has seen the stock lose more than 50% since hitting a record high of $510 on February 14.
Despite the sharp decline, Citi Research reiterated its Buy rating and maintained a $600 price target, arguing that recent bearish reports contain "spurious claims" and that the broader sell-off in momentum stocks is playing a role in the downturn.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with APP.
"Based on peers' revenue growth rates, EBITDA margins, and equity values, AppLovin should be worth $550 per share," wrote Citi analysts led by Jason Bazinet. The firm noted that current valuations suggest a 50% probability that AppLovin's equity is worth $0, which Citi called "remarkably high."
Citi attributes the market skepticism to AppLovin's rapid success and its opaque business model, rather than the validity of bearish arguments against the company.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI)
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI)

Yahoo

time31 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI)

Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Spectral AI fair value estimate is US$2.30 Current share price of US$2.19 suggests Spectral AI is potentially trading close to its fair value Our fair value estimate is 52% lower than Spectral AI's analyst price target of US$4.79 Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine. We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) -US$8.90m -US$1.80m US$3.70m US$2.90m US$3.30m US$3.60m US$3.87m US$4.10m US$4.31m US$4.50m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 9.20% Est @ 7.32% Est @ 6.01% Est @ 5.09% Est @ 4.44% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4% -US$8.3 -US$1.6 US$3.0 US$2.2 US$2.3 US$2.3 US$2.3 US$2.3 US$2.3 US$2.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$9.1m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. 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You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Spectral AI as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.040. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Spectral AI Strength Debt is well covered by earnings. Weakness Shareholders have been diluted in the past year. 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We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

How to buy the Nintendo Switch 2: Latest stock updates at Target, Best Buy, Walmart and more
How to buy the Nintendo Switch 2: Latest stock updates at Target, Best Buy, Walmart and more

Engadget

time42 minutes ago

  • Engadget

How to buy the Nintendo Switch 2: Latest stock updates at Target, Best Buy, Walmart and more

The Nintendo Switch 2 has been available in the US for more than two weeks — but good luck finding one. While millions of people have been able to snag the $450 console since it officially went up for sale on June 5, online inventory dried up fairly quickly at most stores soon after launch and remains difficult to find today. Target and Best Buy restocked shortly after launch, but those didn't last long, and the latter required in-store pickup. You may also be able to grab a bundle at Costco if you're a member there. Otherwise, it's been slim pickings. As of today, we're not seeing any availability — though you may have different luck in your locality when checking inventory, online or in person. To that latter point, people had a bit more luck on launch week by venturing to a physical retail store. 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The past three years for Sinclair (NASDAQ:SBGI) investors has not been profitable
The past three years for Sinclair (NASDAQ:SBGI) investors has not been profitable

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

The past three years for Sinclair (NASDAQ:SBGI) investors has not been profitable

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Sinclair, Inc. (NASDAQ:SBGI) shareholders, since the share price is down 36% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 57%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 18% in the last 90 days. Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price. During five years of share price growth, Sinclair moved from a loss to profitability. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move. We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. However, the weak share price might be related to the fact revenue has been disappearing at a rate of 17% each year, over three years. This could have some investors worried about the longer term growth potential (or lack thereof). The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail). It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Sinclair When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Sinclair the TSR over the last 3 years was -21%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence! We're pleased to report that Sinclair shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 22% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 0.9% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Sinclair (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process. Sinclair is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket. Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges. — Investing narratives with Fair Values Vita Life Sciences Set for a 12.72% Revenue Growth While Tackling Operational Challenges By Robbo – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: A$2.42 · 0.1% Overvalued Vossloh rides a €500 billion wave to boost growth and earnings in the next decade By Chris1 – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: €78.41 · 0.1% Overvalued Intuitive Surgical Will Transform Healthcare with 12% Revenue Growth By Unike – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: $325.55 · 0.6% Undervalued View more featured narratives — Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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