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Decoding Tehran's next move: How Iran could respond to US military strikes
Decoding Tehran's next move: How Iran could respond to US military strikes

New Indian Express

time2 hours ago

  • Politics
  • New Indian Express

Decoding Tehran's next move: How Iran could respond to US military strikes

The United States has maintained a wide military footprint across the Middle East and North Africa for decades, operating as many as 19 military facilities across the region. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which cites US defence officials, around 40,000 American service members are currently deployed across the Middle East as of June 2025. A significant number of them are stationed on naval vessels patrolling regional waters. The 19 military facilities, including eight permanent bases, are spread across Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, the US military operates bases in Djibouti and Turkey. Though part of other regional commands, both often play key roles in American operations in the Middle East. Several of these bases may be under threat if Iran follows through on its warning to retaliate against US interests in the region. Qatar: The Al Udeid Air Base, located in the desert outside Doha, is the largest American military installation in the region and serves as the forward headquarters of US Central Command (CENTCOM). Operational since 2009, the base hosts around 10,000 troops and plays a critical role in US operations across the region. Bahrain: The Naval Support Activity (NSA) base in Manama serves as the headquarters for US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. Operational since 1997, the base is home to around 9,000 troops and plays a key role in securing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq: In western Iraq, the Al-Asad Air Base has been a major US facility since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nearly 2,500 troops are stationed there. The base has been targeted by Iranian missile strikes in the past -- including in 2020, following the US assassination of Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani -- and more recently by Iran-backed militias in response to US support for Israel during the 2023 Gaza war. It was also hit earlier this week by suspected Shiite proxy forces. In Erbil, the Harir Air Base has also been under US control since the 2003 invasion and has been used to support Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Like Al-Asad, it has come under attack from groups aligned with Tehran in the wake of the Gaza conflict. Kuwait: Kuwait plays a critical role in the US military's regional posture. Around 13,500 US troops are spread across five bases in the country, which has historically served as a launchpad for operations, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The Camp Arifjan, located southeast of Kuwait City, is a major logistics and command centre and houses the forward headquarters for the US Army component of CENTCOM. The Ali Al-Salem Air Base, situated around 37 km from the Iraqi border, is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing of the US Air Force. The base supports aerial logistics and operations across the region. UAE: The Al Dhafra Air Base, located 32km south of Abu Dhabi, has been in operation since 2002 and is a hub for reconnaissance and combat missions. The base hosts about 3,500 US personnel and advanced aircraft, including F-22 Raptors, surveillance drones, and AWACS planes. The 380th Air Expeditionary Wing is based here and has supported operations against ISIS, Houthi forces, and missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Meanwhile, the US Navy presence in the region is equally significant and could be at the heart of any conflict with Iran. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is currently deployed in the Arabian Sea along with four warships in its strike group, positioned to provide cover for US assets around the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. The USS Nimitz, scheduled to relieve the Carl Vinson, is making its way from the Indo-Pacific and is expected to arrive by the end of the month. The Navy has also deployed the destroyer USS Thomas Hudner from the Western Mediterranean as a precautionary measure. The USS Gerald R. Ford is set to enter the European command theatre next week. While its deployment is not directly tied to the conflict, its presence would offer the White House the option of a third carrier group in the region if needed. Additional US destroyers are stationed in the Red Sea and the Western Mediterranean, providing maritime security and strategic depth as tensions rise.

Trump refining ‘very likely' Iran strike plan if no diplomatic deal struck within two weeks: sources
Trump refining ‘very likely' Iran strike plan if no diplomatic deal struck within two weeks: sources

New York Post

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • New York Post

Trump refining ‘very likely' Iran strike plan if no diplomatic deal struck within two weeks: sources

WASHINGTON — President Trump is hoping for a peace deal with Iran in the next two weeks — but in the meantime is refining war plans to have the most effective airstrikes possible 'mapped out,' sources close to the White House told The Post, one of whom said the commander-in-chief is favoring the strikes. Four sources describe Trump as personally reviewing details of the plans with his military commanders, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine and CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla. 'Very likely there will be strikes,' one source said. 'But [Trump] wants a very mapped out and deliberate plan on what happens next. [He] doesn't want to just figure it out step by step.' 4 President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 7, 2025. AFP via Getty Images Another source close to the administration said Trump 'is more engaged than just about any president in a pre-strike scenario like this with his top commanders. President Trump is talking very intensively with both [Caine and Kurilla], more than most presidents would.' 'He's talking to them directly and so it's not like they're coming up with new plans, but they are refining plans that are already on the table and tweaking them based on circumstances there now,' the second source said. Trump said Thursday he will be making a decision 'within the next two weeks' on whether to join Israel in bombing Iran to halt its nuclear program. On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi countered that Tehran would never hold nuclear talks with the US 'until Israeli aggression stops.' 'Americans want to negotiate and have sent messages several times, but we clearly said that as long as this aggression doesn't stop, there's no place for talk of dialogue,' Araqchi said in an address on Iran's state television. But retired four-star Gen. Jack Keane also warned on 'Fox & Friends' Friday that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, won't agree to placing limits on his nation's uranium enrichment. 'The reason why he has never made a deal is because he had built an enterprise to survive an attack — and he believes they can absorb the attack, survive it, recover it, and then rebuild,' Keane said. 'That is where this guy is. And I don't see him, in the near term, making the deal here whatsoever.' The messaging from the West Wing has been that Trump is getting briefed daily by his national security team in the situation room and seeks a diplomatic solution if possible — but hasn't ruled out joining the fray with targeted military strikes. 'It's a little bit hard to someone to stop,' the president told reporters Friday evening after landing in New Jersey for a Republican fundraiser at his Bedminster golf club. 'We're going to see what that period of time is, but I'm giving them a period of time, and I would say two weeks would be the maximum.' The question of US involvement centers on Israel's possible inability to destroy the Fordow nuclear enrichment site located beneath a mountain. Israel has been dropping 2,000-pound US-made bombs, but lacks the aircraft required to drop a 30,000-pound US-made 'bunker buster.' 4 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference in Jerusalem, May 21, 2025. AP 4 Israeli security personnel and first responders inspect an area hit by an Iranian missile strike on central Tel Aviv. The 'within two weeks' window gives Trump time to leverage both the possibility of striking a deal if Iran wants, and more time for the national security team to fully monitor the situation and provide the best plans. A third source close to the administration said that in the end, only Trump knows what the final decision will be regarding striking Iran's below ground nuclear facilities, or taking out Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei, like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to. 'Only he knows. Him and Netanyahu being on different pages about killing Khamenei suggests Trump is buying time for peace,' the source said. 'But we won't know what this two weeks was actually for until there are strikes or [a] pause in tension.' The two-week period allows Trump to have 'better military plans' drawn up, the source added, 'while also giving a chance for Iran to throw in the towel in a way he can sell to the world as meaningful and divide Netanyahu's base of support.' 4 Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei delivers a televised speech in Tehran A fourth source, who is close to the Pentagon, described the current status of planning 'a natural progression' where 'you get more specific based off the broader operational plans,' though they note Trump still is hesitant to strike. 'I think the president has since 2019 had a very extreme aversion to getting directly involved in a war with Iran, however it does not mean the door is completely shut,' the source said. 'I think he has changed over the past week and a half and is more open to military action, but he is clearly still conflicted. … The Israelis have put the president in a corner.' Israel accomplished a similar but simpler mission in Iraq — destroying a nuclear reactor in 1981 — by dropping 16 of its 2,000-pound bombs and it's unclear whether some resolution could allow them to see similar success at Fordow after the Jewish state already established air supremacy over Iran. Trump previously ordered US attacks in March on Iran-backed Houthi fighters who control northern Yemen and forced the group into an Omani-brokered deal to halt their bombardment of international shipping in the Red Sea. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth played a leading role in deliberations about the Yemen strikes, providing a detailed but respectful message supporting the operation in a later-leaked Signal group chat when Vice President JD Vance expressed concern that 'we are making a mistake.' Hegseth has been at the White House daily since Israel began striking Iran last week and Pentagon and White House officials say he also is an active part of deliberations. 'The Secretary is speaking with the President multiple times a day each day and has been with the President in the Situation Room this week,' Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said.

The Qatar Weekly Update (QWU) – Part Of The Qatar Monitor Project (QMP) – No. 24, June 20, 2025
The Qatar Weekly Update (QWU) – Part Of The Qatar Monitor Project (QMP) – No. 24, June 20, 2025

Memri

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Memri

The Qatar Weekly Update (QWU) – Part Of The Qatar Monitor Project (QMP) – No. 24, June 20, 2025

Evacuated CENTCOM Al-Udeid Airbase, Qatar, June 17, 2025 (Source: Newsweek) 1. MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 12027, Qatar Supports Iran, Gloats Over Destruction In Israel: The Scenes Of Devastation In The Entity Destined For Extinction Warm The Heart, June 18, 2025. 2. Satellite Imagery Shows Evacuation at Largest U.S. Air Base in Middle East [i.e. CENTCOM in Qatar], Newsweek, June 19, 2025. Hamad bin Jassim, who was at the time Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, told Al-Jazeera that the U.S. cannot use the CENTCOM base to attack Iran. MEMRI TV Clip No. 11192, In 2012 Qatari Prime Minister And Foreign Minister Hamad Bin Jassim: The Americans Know We Will Not Accept Any Hostile Action Against Iran From Qatar, April 1, 2012. MEMRI TV Clip No. 11491, Qatari Prime Minister And FM Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Bin Jassim Al Thani: 'Qatar Does Not Accept The Launching Of Any Attacks Or Wars From The Al-Udeid Air Base Against Countries In The Region And Beyond, October 15, 2024. According to Iranian media in April 2024, Qatar declared that the U.S. cannot use the CENTCOM base for missions against Iran. Iran International, June 21, 2024. See also MEMRI Daily Brief No. 654, One Move That Will Bolster America's Standing In The World: Relocate The CENTCOM Base Out Of Qatar – Part I, September 23, 2024. 3. According to the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), Qatar paid Lumen8 Advisors LLC the following: "$180,000 USD ('Retainer'), payable on the first day of each month, starting (electronic or otherwise) and shall be limited to a cap of 10% of the monthly Retainer." November 1, 2023. Lumen8 Advisors LLC noted that it had performed the following services for Qatar, among others: "Contact Tucker Carlson, The Tucker Carlson Show. Purpose: Interview with Prime Minister of Qatar regarding 'war with Iran? The Prime Minister of Qatar is Being Attacked in the Media for wanting to stop it.'" April 30, 2025. MEMRI Daily Brief No. 737, Tucker Carlson Whitewashes America's Enemies – Part I: Qatar . See Yigal Carmon's article on Tucker Carlon's interview of Qatar's Prime Minister, March 12, 2025. See also Conservative Media Targeted by Qatari Foreign Influence Operations, Washington Examiner, May 17, 2025. 4. Qatari Baha'i facing unjust trial in Doha needs international support to secure his release. Bahai International Community, June 17, 2025 * Yigal Carmon is Founder and President of MEMRI.

As US weighs Iran strike, Pakistan tries to recast itself as anti-terror ally — and India is watching closely
As US weighs Iran strike, Pakistan tries to recast itself as anti-terror ally — and India is watching closely

Economic Times

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Economic Times

As US weighs Iran strike, Pakistan tries to recast itself as anti-terror ally — and India is watching closely

New Delhi: India is watching closely as Pakistan tries to reinvent itself as a victim of terrorism and is seeking to find a place as a key actor against extremism and a possible ally to the US in the conflict with several accounts, the meeting between Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir and US President Donald Trump lasted almost three hours, extending beyond the one hour allocated, and included key US administration advisors for West growing conflict in the region - with the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel overshadowing other issues and increasingly pointing towards a US intervention - has placed Pakistan in an advantageous position that it will try to leverage, people tracking the situation the core of Pakistani moves, sources feel, is an attempt to rebrand itself from a fountainhead of terrorism to a victim that is seeking Western help to counter outfits that present threats to the West. This is an old plot that Pakistan has successfully played against the West in the past before the discovery of Osama Bin Laden at Abbottabad and the subsequent distancing of the US administration and pulling back of military aid. A renewed attempt is being made, with the Iran crisis coming at a particularly fortunate time for Pakistan as the US looks for allies who can pressurise Tehran and provide support in case American forces decide to enter the battlefield. Sources said Pakistan has managed to find some success in getting to Washington DC by exploiting the gap in the Pentagon that exists due to the structuring of its military commands across the world. The US Central Command (CENTCOM), which deals with Pakistan, is at the centre of action right now due to the troubles in West Asia. The Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) which deals with India and China was earlier more central to decision-making and planning in Washington DC. Its views of Pakistan as a close partner of China, increasingly dependent on Beijing for military equipment, training and intelligence, were a counter to the CENTCOM's motives of using Pakistani support for anti-terror operations in its area of said Pakistan is likely to use the situation to play the US against China, though in the long term it will remain dependent on Beijing for weapons, training and funding. The worry is, that in the short run, Pakistan may bargain to get access to US equipment and technology in the garb of fighting terror. It has been seen in the past, including when India attacked terror camps in Balakot in 2019, that equipment provided to Pakistan to fight terrorism were used against at stake for India will be the partnership with the US that has been growing in the military sphere and includes plans to co-develop cutting edge weapon systems. India has been increasing its dependence on the US for critical defence equipment, including engines for indigenous LCAs, maritime surveillance equipment and satellite difference is that while India is seeking technology and equipment from the US to counter an increasingly aggressive China, Pakistan may try to seek the same against India, in the garb of fighting terrorism.

Kurilla warfare: Meet the general leading US military forces in the Middle East amid Iran conflict
Kurilla warfare: Meet the general leading US military forces in the Middle East amid Iran conflict

Fox News

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Fox News

Kurilla warfare: Meet the general leading US military forces in the Middle East amid Iran conflict

Army Gen. Michael "Erik" Kurilla is no stranger to conflict, especially in the Middle East. Two decades ago as a lieutenant colonel, he was at the front lines of combat fighting off insurgents in Mosul, Iraq, while leading the 1st Battalion, 24th Infantry Regiment. The battalion's mission was to conduct security patrols and coordinate offensive attacks against anti-Iraqi insurgents targeting Iraqi security forces and Iraqi police stations. During Kurilla's tenure leading the battalion, more than 150 soldiers earned the Purple Heart for injuries, and the battalion lost at least a dozen soldiers, The New York Times reported in August 2005. "There will always be somebody willing (to) pick up an AK-47 and shoot Americans," Kurilla told The New York Times in August 2005. Kurilla did not complete that deployment unscathed. Later, in August 2005, Kurilla found himself caught in a Mosul, Iraq, firefight, where he sustained multiple gunshot wounds, earning him a Bronze Star with valor and one of his two Purple Heart awards. Now, Kurilla is facing another battle as the commander of U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, serving as the top military officer overseeing U.S. military forces based in the Middle East. That means Kurilla, who attended the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, is at the forefront of military operations as President Donald Trump contemplates whether to engage in military strikes against Iran's nuclear sites. CENTCOM is one of the U.S. military's 11 combatant commands and encompasses 21 nations in the Middle East in its area of operations, including Iraq and Afghanistan. Those familiar with Kurilla claim he's the perfect person for the job. Retired Army Gen. Mark Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described Kurilla as the ideal leader for CENTCOM in 2022 when Biden nominated Kurilla for the role. "If there ever was some way to feed into a machine the requirements for the perfect leader of CENTCOM — the character traits, the attributes, the experiences, the knowledge and the personality that would be ideal — that machine would spit out Erik Kurilla," Milley said in 2022, according to the Defense Department. "Erik's got vast experience in combat (and) on staffs. "He's a visionary, he's a thinker and he's a doer," Milley said. "He understands both the physical and human terrain and is able to identify root causes of problems and develop systems. He's not at all a linear thinker. He's actually a very gifted problem-solver." Retired Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, Kurilla's CENTCOM predecessor, voiced similar sentiments. "I can't think of anybody better qualified to lead CENTCOM's next chapter than Erik Kurilla," McKenzie said in 2022, according to the Pentagon. "He's no stranger to the CENTCOM (area of operations). He's no stranger to the headquarters." Notable figures who've previously filled the job leading CENTCOM include former defense secretaries, retired Gen. Jim Mattis, who served during Trump's first term, and retired Gen. Lloyd Austin, who served during former President Joe Biden's administration. Fox News Digital reached out to CENTCOM, the Department of Defense, McKenzie and Milley for comment and did not get a response by the time of publication. The region is familiar territory for Kurilla. The general spent a decade between 2004 and 2014 overseeing conventional and special operations forces during consecutive tours in the Middle East that fell under the CENTCOM purview. Additionally, Kurilla has served in key CENTCOM staff and leadership positions, including serving as the command's chief of staff from August 2018 to September 2019. Prior to leading CENTCOM, the general also commanded the 2nd Ranger Battalion, the 75th Ranger Regiment, the 82nd Airborne Division and the XVIII Airborne Corps, according to his official bio. In addition to deploying to Iraq as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Inherent Resolve, he deployed to Afghanistan with Operation Enduring Freedom. Other awards he's earned include the Combat Infantryman Badge, awarded to Army infantry or special forces officers who've encountered active ground combat. Kurilla, who the Senate confirmed to lead CENTCOM in February 2022 and will exit the role later in 2025, told lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee June 10 that, since October 2023, when Hamas first attacked Israel, American service members have faced increased threats in the region. Specifically, he said, U.S. troops have come under direct fire by nearly 400 unmanned aerial systems, 350 rockets, 50 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles launched by Iranian-backed groups. He said CENTCOM has encountered the "most highly kinetic period than at any other time in the past decade." "We have been at the brink of regional war several times with the first state-on-state attacks between Iran and Israel in their history," Kurilla told lawmakers. "In the Red Sea, Houthi attempts to kill Americans operating in the Red Sea necessitated an aggressive response to protect our sailors and mariners and restore freedom of navigation. This is while Tehran is continuing to progress towards a nuclear weapons program — threatening catastrophic ramifications across the region and beyond." As a result, Kurilla said CENTCOM is prepared to use military force to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state. Kurilla said he has provided Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth a host of options to employ to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran. Since Kurilla's testimony, tensions have escalated even further in the Middle East after Israel kicked off massive airstrikes against Iran's nuclear sites that Israel claims have killed several high-ranking military leaders. Likewise, Iran also launched strikes against Israel as the two ramp up military campaigns against one another. Trump is still navigating whether the U.S. will conduct direct strikes against Iran. Trump told reporters he may order strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites and that the "next week is going to be very big." "Yes, I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do," Trump said. "I can tell you this, that Iran's got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate."

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