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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
As the summer harvest season launches, confusion and uncertainty hang over California fields
As the crucial summer harvest season gets underway in California's vast agricultural regions, farmers and their workers say they feel whiplashed by a series of contradictory signals about how the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration might affect them. California grows more than one-third of the country's vegetables and more than three-quarters of the nation's fruits and nuts in the fertile expanses of the Central Valley, Central Coast and other farming regions. The industry produced nearly $60 billion in goods in 2023, according to state figures — an output that depends heavily on the skilled labor of a workforce that is at least 50% undocumented, according to University of California studies. Without workers, the juicy beefsteak tomatoes that are ripening and must be hand-harvested will rot on the vines. The yellow peaches just reaching that delicate blend of sweet and tart will fall to the ground, unpicked. Same with the melons, grapes and cherries. That's why, when federal immigration agents rolled into the berry fields of Oxnard last week and detained 40 farmworkers, growers up and down the state grew worried along with their workers. Farm laborers, many of whom have lived and worked in their communities for decades, were terrified of being rounded up and deported, separated from their families and livelihoods. Farmers worried that their workforce would vanish — either locked up in detention centers or forced into the shadows for fear of arrest — just as their labor was needed most. Everyone wanted to know whether the raids in Oxnard were the beginning of a broader statewide crackdown that would radically disrupt the harvest season — which is also the period when most farmworkers earn the most money — or just a one-off enforcement action. In the ensuing days, the answers have become no clearer, according to farmers, worker advocates and elected officials. 'We, as the California agricultural community, are trying to figure out what's going on,' said Ryan Jacobsen, chief executive of the Fresno County Farm Bureau and a farmer of almonds and grapes. He added that 'time is of the essence,' because farms and orchards are 'coming right into our busiest time.' After the raids in Ventura County last week, growers across the country began urgently lobbying the Trump administration, arguing that enforcement action on farm operations could hamper food production. They pointed to the fields around Oxnard post-raid, where, according to the Ventura County Farm Bureau, as many as 45% of the workers stayed home in subsequent days. President Trump appeared to get the message. On Thursday, he posted on Truth Social that 'our great farmers,' along with leaders in the hospitality industry, had complained that his immigration policies were 'taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.' He added that it was 'not good' and 'changes are coming!' The same day, according to a New York Times report, a senior official with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement wrote regional ICE directors telling them to lay off farms, along with restaurants and hotels. 'Effective today, please hold on all work site enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels,' the official wrote. Many in California agriculture took heart. Then on Monday came news that the directive to stay off farms, hotels and restaurants had been reversed. 'There will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine ICE's efforts,' Tricia McLaughlin, an assistant secretary for the Department of Homeland Security, said, according to the Washington Post. 'Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safeguard public safety, national security and economic stability.' In California's heartland, Jacobsen of the Fresno County Farm Bureau spoke for many farmers when he said: 'We don't have a clue right now.' Asked Tuesday to clarify the administration's policy on immigration raids in farmland, White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said the Trump administration is committed to "enforcing federal immigration law." "While the President is focused on immediately removing dangerous criminal illegal aliens from the country," Jackson said, "anyone who is here illegally is liable to be deported.' Still, Jacobsen and others noted, aside from the upheaval in Ventura County last week, agricultural operations in other parts of the state have largely been spared from mass immigration sweeps. Workers, meanwhile, have continued to show up for work, and most have even returned to the fields in Ventura County. There has been one notable outcome of last week's raids, according to several people interviewed: Employers are reaching out to workers' rights organizations, seeking guidance on how to keep their workers safe. "Some employers are trying to take steps to protect their employees, as best they can,' said Armando Elenes, secretary treasurer of the United Farm Workers. He said his organization and others have been training employers on how to respond if immigration agents show up at their farms or packinghouses. A core message, he said: Don't allow agents on the property if they don't have a signed warrant. Indeed, many of the growers whose properties were raided in Ventura County appear to have understood that; advocates reported that federal agents were turned away from a number of farms because they did not have a warrant. Read more: Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids In Ventura County, Lucas Zucker, co-executive director of the Central Coast Alliance United for a Sustainable Economy, a group that has often been at odds with growers over issues such as worker pay and protections, underscored the unusual alliance that has forged between farmers and worker advocates. Two days after the raids, Zucker read a statement condemning the immigration sweeps on behalf of Maureen McGuire, chief executive of the Ventura County Farm Bureau, an organization that represents growers. "Farmers care deeply about their workers, not as abstract labor, but as human beings and valued community members who deserve dignity, safety and respect," McGuire said in the statement. "Ventura County agriculture depends on them. California's economy depends on them. America's food system depends on them." Before reading the statement, Zucker evoked light laughter when he told the crowd: 'For those of you familiar [with] Ventura County, you might be surprised to see CAUSE reading a statement from the farm bureau. We clash on many issues, but this is something where we're united and where we're literally speaking with one voice.' 'The agriculture industry and farmworkers are both under attack, with federal agencies showing up at the door," Zucker said later. "Nothing brings people together like a common enemy.' This article is part of The Times' equity reporting initiative, funded by the James Irvine Foundation, exploring the challenges facing low-income workers and the efforts being made to address California's economic divide. Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week. This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
The Immigration Crackdown Is Full of Economic Contradictions
Like it or not, parts of the US economy depend on undocumented and other low-wage immigrant workers. The system has evolved to assume they would always be here, especially in areas such as agriculture, hospitality and construction. You can't strip them of their status, deport them or scare them into the shadows without unleashing a wave of complications. It's no wonder that President Donald Trump's xenophobic immigration policy is suddenly dotted with holes and internal contradictions. While he continues to advertise the 'largest Mass Deportation Program in History,' Trump is now also calling for carve-outs for key industries and political constituencies. 'Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,' he wrote Thursday on Truth Social. According to a New York Times report Saturday, senior Immigration and Customs Enforcement official Tatum King sent an email the same day to regional leaders directing them to 'hold on all work site enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels.'
South China Morning Post
11-06-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Korean-American merchants in Los Angeles fear ‘devastation' as ICE raids, protests deepen
A wave of immigration raids in Los Angeles' Fashion District, commonly known as 'The Santee Alley' or 'Java Market', has sparked anxiety and economic disruption among Korean-American merchants, with many shuttering their stores in fear of further crackdowns. Advertisement Last Friday, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted coordinated raids across the district, detaining more than 40 undocumented immigrants, including over 20 workers at a Korean-owned wholesale clothing business. The raids also extended to nearby locations such as a Home Depot, prompting protests throughout the city and raising concerns within the immigrant business community. 'There's barely a soul on the streets. Some stores haven't reopened since the weekend,' said Yoon, a 62-year-old Korean-American merchant who has run a women's fashion store in the area for 30 years. 'We're scared they'll raid us again.' ICE appears to have focused its enforcement efforts on the Fashion District, where many garment businesses depend on Hispanic labour, some of whom are believed to be undocumented. Advertisement Merchants said it has long been an open secret that undocumented workers are employed across the district due to labour shortages and the area's demographic reality – roughly half of Los Angeles' population is of Latin American descent. 'You can't run a business here without Hispanic workers,' said one merchant. 'It's not like before. Sales are down, but we still need people to run operations. Sometimes you hire people even if you're unsure about their status.'
Yahoo
08-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Vanishing immigration is the ‘real story' for the economy and a bigger supply shock than tariffs, analyst says
Protests over ICE raids in the Los Angeles area this weekend highlight the crackdown on undocumented workers at businesses and the overall impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, on the economy. The collapse in immigration represents a bigger negative supply shock than President Donald Trump's tariffs do, Deutsche Bank said. President Donald Trump's mobilization of California National Guard troops to protect immigration officers from protesters highlights his crackdown on undocumented workers and the economic impact of a sudden drop in labor supply. Protests in Los Angeles began on Friday, when armed federal agents clad in camouflage uniforms, tactical vests, and helmets arrived in armored vehicles to carry out a raid on a clothing wholesaler. It was the latest in a series of similar high-profile operations at businesses around the country. Also on Friday, the Labor Department issued its monthly jobs report, which showed the U.S. workforce shrank in May as the number of foreign-born workers saw the biggest back-to-back declines since 2020. That comes after a surge in immigration during the Biden administration helped boost economic activity. According to a Deutsche Bank analysis of data from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, the number of encounters at the Southwest border has plunged to 12,000 people per month since Trump's inauguration from an average of 200,000 during the year-and-a-half period between January 2022 and June 2024. 'While everyone is focused on the impact of tariffs, the real story for the US economy is the collapse in immigration: down more than 90% compared to the run rate of previous years, equivalent to a slowing in labour force growth of more than 2 million people,' George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note on Friday. 'This represents a far more sustained negative supply shock for the economy than tariffs.' While Trump has pointed to weaker payroll growth as reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, his immigration crackdown gives the central bank, which is already wary of the inflationary effect of his tariffs, another reason to wait and see. That's because a workforce that is growing more slowly doesn't need as much hiring to absorb the additional labor supply. In fact, even as average payroll gains have cooled to 124,000 a month this year from 250,000 in 2024, the jobless rate has hovered around 4.2% since last summer. Wall Street sees a lower breakeven rate for job growth, or the amount of hiring need to keep the unemployment rate steady. By the end of this year, that pace should fall to 90,000 per month from 170,000 now and 210,000 last year, according to Morgan Stanley, which cited deportations and slower immigration. Deutsche Bank warned the collapse of immigration will have broader implications in financial markets, including on the dollar, which has already been battered by Trump's aggressive tariff campaign. 'Last year we were writing that the US was benefitting from a goldilocks mix of high employment growth and low wages precisely because of high immigration numbers,' Saravelos said. 'If recent immigration trends continue, it must follow that over the course of the year the reverse will happen. As the 2022 energy shock showed, a negative supply shock is not good news for a currency.' This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
08-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Vanishing immigration is the ‘real story' for the economy and a bigger supply shock than tariffs, analysts says
Protests over ICE raids in the Los Angeles area this weekend highlight the crackdown on undocumented workers at businesses and the overall impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, on the economy. The collapse in immigration represents a bigger negative supply shock than President Donald Trump's tariffs do, Deutsche Bank said. President Donald Trump's mobilization of California National Guard troops to protect immigration officers from protesters highlights his crackdown on undocumented workers and the economic impact of a sudden drop in labor supply. Protests in Los Angeles began on Friday, when armed federal agents clad in camouflage uniforms, tactical vests, and helmets arrived in armored vehicles to carry out a raid on a clothing wholesaler. It was the latest in a series of similar high-profile operations at businesses around the country. Also on Friday, the Labor Department issued its monthly jobs report, which showed the U.S. workforce shrank in May as the number of foreign-born workers saw the biggest back-to-back declines since 2020. That comes after a surge in immigration during the Biden administration helped boost economic activity. According to a Deutsche Bank analysis of data from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, the number of encounters at the Southwest border has plunged to 12,000 people per month since Trump's inauguration from an average of 200,000 during the year-and-a-half period between January 2022 and June 2024. 'While everyone is focused on the impact of tariffs, the real story for the US economy is the collapse in immigration: down more than 90% compared to the run rate of previous years, equivalent to a slowing in labour force growth of more than 2 million people,' George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note on Friday. 'This represents a far more sustained negative supply shock for the economy than tariffs.' While Trump has pointed to weaker payroll growth as reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, his immigration crackdown gives the central bank, which is already wary of the inflationary effect of his tariffs, another reason to wait and see. That's because a workforce that is growing more slowly doesn't need as much hiring to absorb the additional labor supply. In fact, even as average payroll gains have cooled to 124,000 a month this year from 250,000 in 2024, the jobless rate has hovered around 4.2% since last summer. Wall Street sees a lower breakeven rate for job growth, or the amount of hiring need to keep the unemployment rate steady. By the end of this year, that pace should fall to 90,000 per month from 170,000 now and 210,000 last year, according to Morgan Stanley, which cited deportations and slower immigration. Deutsche Bank warned the collapse of immigration will have broader implications in financial markets, including on the dollar, which has already been battered by Trump's aggressive tariff campaign. 'Last year we were writing that the US was benefitting from a goldilocks mix of high employment growth and low wages precisely because of high immigration numbers,' Saravelos said. 'If recent immigration trends continue, it must follow that over the course of the year the reverse will happen. As the 2022 energy shock showed, a negative supply shock is not good news for a currency.' This story was originally featured on
