Latest news with #speculators
Reuters
5 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Raging bulls: Funds pad historic longs in CME livestock
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 15 (Reuters) - Speculators have held unusually bullish views in U.S. cattle futures since late last year, which was perfect timing as the domestic herd hit a 74-year low at the beginning of 2025. Since then, U.S. beef prices have hit all-time highs, yet consumers have not relinquished their taste for the premium protein, and cattle futures have continued their climb. In the week ended June 10, money managers boosted their net long in CME live cattle futures and options to a 10-week high of 137,836 contracts. That is a record for the date but comparable with 2017 and 2014, both of which featured a steady easing of bullish bets from here. Funds' net long in CME feeder cattle hit a record high as of June 10, and they also extended bullish bets in CME lean hog futures and options for a ninth consecutive week. That brought their hog net long to 118,218 contracts, easily the highest ever for this time of year. Spot live cattle futures are up about 16% so far this year and hogs have jumped by a third. Both inked fresh contract highs within the last week. Over in grains and oilseeds, speculators were net buyers in the week ended June 10 of everything but corn and soybean oil, the latter perhaps regrettable given Friday's events. Money managers were net sellers of CBOT soybean oil futures and options for a fourth consecutive week through June 10, leaving them with a modest net long of 24,768 contracts. However, soyoil futures surged the daily limit on Friday, reaching one-month highs, as the Trump administration proposed higher-than-expected requirements for U.S. biofuel blending in 2026 and 2027. This could boost the demand for domestic soybean oil, particularly as foreign feedstock including used cooking oil from China would be discouraged. Despite the optimism, there was no word yet regarding small refinery exemptions, which could effectively reduce demand. The biofuel news lifted soybeans, which on Friday notched their highest closing price in a month at $10.69-3/4 per bushel. Money managers had increased their near-flat soybean position through June 10 to a net long of 25,639 futures and options contracts. Despite global soybean supplies set to hit record levels this year, speculators have maintained a mildly optimistic stance in recent weeks. U.S. crop prospects are relatively modest and depend on a record yield and a certain acreage, the latter of which could be at risk in favor of corn acres. The big U.S. corn crop expectations have turned funds into bears, as they have been net sellers in 15 of the last 18 weeks. Through June 10, they lifted their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 164,020 contracts, up about 10,000 on the week. This increases investors' risk of having to abruptly cover corn shorts should U.S. weather turn unfavorable, but current forecasts do not suggest this is very likely in the near-term. Supportive spring weather boosted U.S. winter wheat conditions to the highest early-June levels in six years, and funds have noticed. Last month they established an all-time net short in Kansas City wheat futures and options, well past the previous record. Although they have been net buyers of K.C. wheat in the latest four weeks, their net short remains extremely heavy. Funds also bought Chicago wheat in the latest four weeks, cutting their net short to 94,011 futures and options contracts from 126,895 over that period. CBOT wheat futures surged more than 3% on Friday, motivated by strength in both the soy complex and crude oil. Crude contracts on Friday posted their largest intraday moves since 2022 after Israel conducted strikes on Iran, and both sides were still trading blows as of Sunday. Aside from the fresh Middle East conflict and any further U.S. biofuel news, grain traders must continue to monitor how U.S. weather is shaping up for the rest of June. Grain and oilseed futures have a history of crashing whenever nonthreatening weather is on tap for the U.S. Corn Belt into early July, when crops are setting up for the critical pollination phase. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Raging bulls: Funds pad historic longs in CME livestock: Braun
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.) NAPERVILLE, Illinois - Speculators have held unusually bullish views in U.S. cattle futures since late last year, which was perfect timing as the domestic herd hit a 74-year low at the beginning of 2025. Since then, U.S. beef prices have hit all-time highs, yet consumers have not relinquished their taste for the premium protein, and cattle futures have continued their climb. In the week ended June 10, money managers boosted their net long in CME live cattle futures and options to a 10-week high of 137,836 contracts. That is a record for the date but comparable with 2017 and 2014, both of which featured a steady easing of bullish bets from here. Funds' net long in CME feeder cattle hit a record high as of June 10, and they also extended bullish bets in CME lean hog futures and options for a ninth consecutive week. That brought their hog net long to 118,218 contracts, easily the highest ever for this time of year. Spot live cattle futures are up about 16% so far this year and hogs have jumped by a third. Both inked fresh contract highs within the last week. Over in grains and oilseeds, speculators were net buyers in the week ended June 10 of everything but corn and soybean oil, the latter perhaps regrettable given Friday's events. Money managers were net sellers of CBOT soybean oil futures and options for a fourth consecutive week through June 10, leaving them with a modest net long of 24,768 contracts. However, soyoil futures surged the daily limit on Friday, reaching one-month highs, as the Trump administration proposed higher-than-expected requirements for U.S. biofuel blending in 2026 and 2027. This could boost the demand for domestic soybean oil, particularly as foreign feedstock including used cooking oil from China would be discouraged. Despite the optimism, there was no word yet regarding small refinery exemptions, which could effectively reduce demand. The biofuel news lifted soybeans, which on Friday notched their highest closing price in a month at $10.69-3/4 per bushel. Money managers had increased their near-flat soybean position through June 10 to a net long of 25,639 futures and options contracts. Despite global soybean supplies set to hit record levels this year, speculators have maintained a mildly optimistic stance in recent weeks. U.S. crop prospects are relatively modest and depend on a record yield and a certain acreage, the latter of which could be at risk in favor of corn acres. The big U.S. corn crop expectations have turned funds into bears, as they have been net sellers in 15 of the last 18 weeks. Through June 10, they lifted their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 164,020 contracts, up about 10,000 on the week. This increases investors' risk of having to abruptly cover corn shorts should U.S. weather turn unfavorable, but current forecasts do not suggest this is very likely in the near-term. Supportive spring weather boosted U.S. winter wheat conditions to the highest early-June levels in six years, and funds have noticed. Last month they established an all-time net short in Kansas City wheat futures and options, well past the previous record. Although they have been net buyers of K.C. wheat in the latest four weeks, their net short remains extremely heavy. Funds also bought Chicago wheat in the latest four weeks, cutting their net short to 94,011 futures and options contracts from 126,895 over that period. CBOT wheat futures surged more than 3% on Friday, motivated by strength in both the soy complex and crude oil. Crude contracts on Friday posted their largest intraday moves since 2022 after Israel conducted strikes on Iran, and both sides were still trading blows as of Sunday. Aside from the fresh Middle East conflict and any further U.S. biofuel news, grain traders must continue to monitor how U.S. weather is shaping up for the rest of June. Grain and oilseed futures have a history of crashing whenever nonthreatening weather is on tap for the U.S. Corn Belt into early July, when crops are setting up for the critical pollination phase. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. (Writing by Karen Braun; Editing by Matthew Lewis)
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's Why We Think NiSource (NYSE:NI) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else investors will move on and the company will wither away. In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like NiSource (NYSE:NI), which has not only revenues, but also profits. Even if this company is fairly valued by the market, investors would agree that generating consistent profits will continue to provide NiSource with the means to add long-term value to shareholders. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. Even with very modest growth rates, a company will usually do well if it improves earnings per share (EPS) year after year. So it's easy to see why many investors focus in on EPS growth. It's good to see that NiSource's EPS has grown from US$1.61 to US$1.84 over twelve months. This amounts to a 14% gain; a figure that shareholders will be pleased to see. Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. Not all of NiSource's revenue last year was revenue from operations, so keep in mind the revenue and margin numbers used in this article might not be the best representation of the underlying business. NiSource shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 25% to 27%, and revenue is growing. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in our book. In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image. View our latest analysis for NiSource In investing, as in life, the future matters more than the past. So why not check out this free interactive visualization of NiSource's forecast profits? We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a US$19b company like NiSource. But we are reassured by the fact they have invested in the company. To be specific, they have US$45m worth of shares. That shows significant buy-in, and may indicate conviction in the business strategy. Even though that's only about 0.2% of the company, it's enough money to indicate alignment between the leaders of the business and ordinary shareholders. While it's always good to see some strong conviction in the company from insiders through heavy investment, it's also important for shareholders to ask if management compensation policies are reasonable. Our quick analysis into CEO remuneration would seem to indicate they are. Our analysis has discovered that the median total compensation for the CEOs of companies like NiSource, with market caps over US$8.0b, is about US$14m. NiSource's CEO took home a total compensation package worth US$13m in the year leading up to December 2024. That is actually below the median for CEO's of similarly sized companies. While the level of CEO compensation shouldn't be the biggest factor in how the company is viewed, modest remuneration is a positive, because it suggests that the board keeps shareholder interests in mind. Generally, arguments can be made that reasonable pay levels attest to good decision-making. One positive for NiSource is that it is growing EPS. That's nice to see. The fact that EPS is growing is a genuine positive for NiSource, but the pleasant picture gets better than that. With company insiders aligning themselves considerably with the company's success and modest CEO compensation, there's no arguments that this is a stock worth looking into. Still, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with NiSource (including 1 which is potentially serious). While opting for stocks without growing earnings and absent insider buying can yield results, for investors valuing these key metrics, here is a carefully selected list of companies in the US with promising growth potential and insider confidence. Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Should You Be Adding Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) To Your Watchlist Today?
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up. If this kind of company isn't your style, you like companies that generate revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH). While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has undergone a massive growth in earnings per share over the last three years. So much so that this three year growth rate wouldn't be a fair assessment of the company's future. As a result, we'll zoom in on growth over the last year, instead. Impressively, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' EPS catapulted from US$0.81 to US$1.91, over the last year. It's not often a company can achieve year-on-year growth of 137%. Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. The music to the ears of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings shareholders is that EBIT margins have grown from 13% to 15% in the last 12 months and revenues are on an upwards trend as well. Both of which are great metrics to check off for potential growth. You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart. View our latest analysis for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting. We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a US$8.4b company like Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. But we do take comfort from the fact that they are investors in the company. Holding US$59m worth of stock in the company is no laughing matter and insiders will be committed in delivering the best outcomes for shareholders. This should keep them focused on creating long term value for shareholders. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' earnings have taken off in quite an impressive fashion. That sort of growth is nothing short of eye-catching, and the large investment held by insiders should certainly brighten the view of the company. The hope is, of course, that the strong growth marks a fundamental improvement in the business economics. So at the surface level, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is worth putting on your watchlist; after all, shareholders do well when the market underestimates fast growing companies. We should say that we've discovered 1 warning sign for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here. While opting for stocks without growing earnings and absent insider buying can yield results, for investors valuing these key metrics, here is a carefully selected list of companies in the US with promising growth potential and insider confidence. Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
13-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Options Signal Emerging-Market Stock Outperformance Could Fade
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump's trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index. But if options are any guide, that outperformance may soon be a thing of the past. With President Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs slated to end in early July, speculators are now bracing for more turbulence in emerging markets. An ETF tracking the segment has rallied 14% this year, beating the S&P 500 by the most since 2009. Open interest in put options on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is hovering close to the highest since December relative to bullish call contracts. Rising open interest means new positions are being added in a particular contract.
