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Economic Times
5 days ago
- Politics
- Economic Times
World citizens, G7 has left the building
Leaders of some of the world's richest - a few of which also happen to be the most influential - countries met in Kananaskis, Canada, over the week. International muscle memory would have us believe that the G7 summit was still a powwow of global movers and shakers. Instead, it was more a tea-party. Like in the Carrollian version, G7 had its Mad Hatter (who left early), dozing Dormouse, enthusiastic March Hare, and inquisitive Alice. But a summit without a communique, and agreeing on not much beyond stating Iran is to blame for the latest global instability is hardly the stuff to bring credibility to a 20th-c. antique trying to look like the Avengers. Like other post-WW2 institutions, the convening power of the US was critical to G7's functioning. Tweaks over time, like inviting leaders from emerging and developing economies to join in discussions, were a function of the US world view. With the waning of American power, no other fulcrums have actually emerged - certainly not within G7. Being an old boys' club (with some old girls in it) that extols democratic values, it becomes a bit hard to digest when the military of one member state is let loose in downtown LA, and the government of another G7 nation deems any criticism of Israel verboten. An easy solution is to write G7's obituary, and make adjustments, with as much effect as rearranging the Titanic's deck. It has been tried before - say, G20 and BRICS, neither of which can be deemed as successful successors. But the idea may not be to replace but to build new neural networks connecting those who believe - through their actions - in open societies, democratic values, and free and fair trade. These new networks can ensure there is a functional collective in the first place.
Economic Times
08-06-2025
- Politics
- Economic Times
Before G7 turned out to be fine on Friday...
Just when we were ready to expose G7 as a fuddy-duddy boys' club, comprising post-WW2 'school prefect' countries plus two Marshall Planned members, we now have to hold our horses. That the Indian PM hadn't got an invitation from the Canadian PM-Canada is hosting the summit at Kananaskis in Alberta-to be a guest at the powwow starting this coming weekend got us riled up. Finally, we could call the old shovel a shovel-or, more to the point, a group of zamindars clinging to their titles in a world that has moved on 'upper east side'. We were all ready to rail against how 'emerging' economies like China, India, Brazil are kept forever 'emerging'-never to emerge-by G7ers, despite reshaping trade, tech and geopolitics. 'G7 can get stuffed!' our almost-unfurled banners read. On a more bilateral note, we were raring to trash-talk Canada for their 'anti-India' views. With no invitation even by midweek, we were all set to broker a deal with Trump to make that country the 51st US state. 'Holding lavish summits where the world's most privileged discuss inequality over champagne is a poor look. Disband G7, or reflect...' was the opening to our anti-G7 manifesto that would have been approved by some key ministers. And then, Mark Carney invited Narendra Modi. Yes, we wasted our time. Because you see, G7 is, after all, very, very fine.
Economic Times
25-05-2025
- Science
- Economic Times
Jayant Vishnu Narlikar: The great astrophysicist believed it's essential to have voices who question mainstream dogma
In June 1995, Cambridge University's Institute of Astronomy (IoA) celebrated the 80th birthday of its founder, the renowned physicist Fred Hoyle. Members of the original team who helped establish one of the world's leading scientific institutions in 1972 were invited. Among them was Jayant Vishnu Narlikar, one of the founding faculty of IoA, and one of Hoyle's old research students. Narlikar was then founding director of Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) in Pune, a place modelled closed after IoA. At the summer garden party on one of those rare English sunny afternoons, Hoyle, the most important figure in Britain's post-WW2 astronomy and space sciences establishment, was asked to speak about his life in science. In a letter to Robert Hooke in 1675, another Cambridge scientist, Isaac Newton, had famously said, 'If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' Hoyle started his speech about his main contributions to astronomy by saying, 'If I have seen further than others, it is by standing on the shoulders of a Jayant.' In the 1960s, Narlikar, with his mentor Hoyle, developed a work that's arguably the finest among their scientific oeuvres. Hoyle-Narlikar theory of gravity presented an alternative to Einstein's general relativity by fundamentally incorporating Mach's Principle. Think of it this way: what if the weight and mass (inertia) of an object isn't just something it has by itself, but is actually influenced by everything else in the universe? Unlike Einstein's theory of relativity, which sees gravity as a warping of space and time, Hoyle and Narlikar proposed that gravity is a direct interaction between all particles in the universe, near and far. Their theory also included a unique concept called the 'creation field', which meant new matter constantly appearing to keep the universe expanding without becoming empty. This was consistent with their model of the universe-steady state theory-which believes the universe to be infinite in age and expanse. While we now have strong evidence for the Big Bang model-which believes the universe began from a point almost 14 bn years ago-this theory was a bold and thought-provoking alternative that pushed scientists to think differently about how our universe works. Celebrity came early to Jayant Narlikar. He was a decorated student, a senior wrangler in Cambridge mathematics with lots of prizes under his belt. With his work on cosmology with Hoyle being discussed in the halls of science across the world, the Indian government laid out a red carpet for him to return to India and set up a strong group in physics and astronomy research at Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), from which would hopefully spawn many others. In 1988, UGC created for him his own institution, IUCAA, in Pune, to help build astronomy and cosmology teaching and research in all the universities across India. At 27, he had been awarded the Padma Bhushan, which later became a Padma Vibhashan as he stepped off his 3-term stint as director of IUCAA. Narlikar's approach to the nature of gravity, even at an early stage of his career, showed that at heart, he was a maverick. As most cosmologists grew comfortable accepting the Big Bang model, Narlikar held his ground that the steady state had to be the answer. As more evidence was unearthed in favour of Big Bang, he responded with alternative explanations. With Geoff Burbidge and others, he proposed the quasi-steady state model, a universe that contracts and expands, cycling endlessly, with no beginning. The cosmic microwave background, which is the strongest evidence in support of the Big Bang, was elegantly explained with a kind of interstellar dust. Models of dust led to more problems. But Narlikar was undeterred. He refused to stop thinking, or reimagining. He was not a contrarian, but somebody who believed that it's essential to have voices who question mainstream IUCAA director, I cherished Narlikar's daily presence at the institute in his office next to the library, where I would regularly go for discussions and advice. In the entire time I worked with him, I found his allegiance to his theories never to be dogmatic. In front of students and other academics, he would be open to all-out debate about anything he did or did not believe in. He would argue with impeccable rigour, ever fact that I often contradicted him in academic debates was never held personally against me, or anybody else. Narlikar was a professional academic in every sense of the term.I got interested in astronomy as a child from his books, and Carl Sagan, whose TV series, 'Cosmos,' he brought to Doordarshan audiences. Later on, as I worked alongside him to bring science to the public, especially to young people, I saw the true Jayant Narlikar-the maverick who was not afraid to question the core dogmas of science, as well as all-pervasive pseudo-science in society, embodied in astrology and general was truly a giant, not just of astrophysics or academia, but of rational thought and expression, and spent a lifetime very effectively communicating this to the rest of the world. There won't be another of his kind. Adieu.
Business Wire
06-05-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Barclays Research Expects AI to Recast Global Supply Chains and Labor Markets
LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In this year's edition of the Equity Gilt Study, Barclays Research analysts delve into the transformational power of AI, offering a long-term view on how AI-driven disruption and other structural forces are likely to shape the global economy in the years ahead. Beyond the technological shifts, analysts find that AI will accelerate major changes across supply chains, labor markets and the future of work. 'AI is already changing many aspects of the modern economy and financial markets and will continue to do so for years to come,' says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research. "The end result promises to be fascinating – and most likely a net positive for the world at large.' The Geopolitics of Minerals and Minds Barclays Research highlights the strategic vulnerabilities created by the global reliance on a handful of countries for critical rare earth elements and skilled talent. Barclays analysts warn that this concentration threatens supply chain stability amid rising geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and climate-related shocks. AI and the New Skills Divide Drawing on eight years of data, Barclays analysts find that while AI's overall effect on employment remains modest, it is already reshaping expectations of skills and tasks, especially in higher-paid, white-collar roles. As adoption accelerates, the potential for broader macroeconomic effects continues to grow. AI's Market Divide Barclays analysts argue that the spread of AI could have far-reaching implications for investment returns, drawing parallels to past technological revolutions such as the post-WW2 revolution in durable goods, the rise of the internet in the 1990s and the data boom of the 2010s. AI could drive gains in equities, upward pressure on yields across the curve and a moderately stronger dollar. Deep Impact The sudden emergence of DeepSeek from China was a 'Sputnik moment' for the US and other developed markets, galvanizing a new wave of investment in AI infrastructure. Barclays analysts believe that the capital expenditure arms race has further to run, not least due to the vast computing power needed for emerging, multi-step workloads. Notes to editors: Barclays Equity Gilt Study is a flagship annual publication that combines market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset dataset spanning over 100 years. It provides uniquely rich data and commentary on long-term asset returns in the UK and US. Data for the UK goes back to 1899, while the US data, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago, runs from 1925. About Barclays Investment Bank Our vision is to be the UK-centred leader in global finance. We are a diversified bank with comprehensive UK consumer, corporate and wealth and private banking franchises, a leading global investment bank and a strong, specialist US consumer bank. Through these five divisions, we are working together for a better financial future for our customers, clients and communities. The Investment Bank helps money managers, financial institutions, governments, supranational organisations and corporate clients manage their funding, investing, financing, and strategic and risk management needs.
Economic Times
04-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India needs more guard rails to address concerns of equity in the wake of Trump's trade war
Just a day after Donald Trump patted himself on the back for completing what he called, in his usual humble style, 'the most successful first 100 days of any administration', the US economy gave him a rude wake-up call. US GDP, a measure of the money-value of goods and services produced in the economy, contracted for the first time in three years during Q1 (Jan-Mar 2025). Against expectations of a growth of 0.3%, the world's largest economy contracted 0.3%, a sharp fall from the 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 part of the contraction can be explained by American companies importing more in a bid to beat tariff deadlines. Imports reportedly grew 41%, the fastest since 2020, chipping away five percentage points from Q1 growth. Optimists hope the dramatic increase in imports will reverse in Q2, once the uncertainty over tariffs ends, although that is yet to be regardless of whether trade deals are struck, or the 90-day pause on tariffs that comes to an end early July is extended, US imports will face higher tariffs than before. Thanks to a flat import duty of 10%, higher tariffs on China and a complex web of sector-specific tariffs, US consumers will face higher prices that will, in turn, hit domestic demand and as with all things macroeconomic, there is no consensus on whether Q1's GDP contraction is only a one-off, or whether the next quarter will also see a contraction, tipping the US into a recession (two consecutive quarters of fall in GDP). So, if NYU Stern Business School 's 'Dr Doom' Nouriel Roubini expects to see the US economy 'thrive' after an initial period of pain, Yale's Stephen Roach sees the US heading for a 'long period of stagflation' (lower growth and higher inflation).What is undeniable is that regardless of whether the US economy goes into a recession or not, Trump's trade wars, and even more his policy flip-flops and accompanying uncertainty, will impact global growth adversely. Last fortnight, IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) downgraded its forecast for world economic growth. Growth is now expected at 2.8%, down from 3.3% earlier (January WEO), while US economic growth is expected to be impacted even more adversely. US GDP is now expected to expand by only 1.8 % this year, down from the January estimate of 2.7%.Unfortunately, for now, Trump seems unfazed. Arguing that US Q1 GDP numbers had nothing to do with his tariff policies, and brushing them off as part of 'transition pain' from the overhang of Biden's policies, Trump has promised more of the same. Despite turmoil in world financial markets in April that forced him to backtrack on his egregious tariff proposals, at the celebrations marking his first 100 days in the White House, he remained upbeat. 'We've just gotten started. You haven't even seen anything yet.'Presumably, Trump is hell-bent on continuing down his chosen path of knocking down the building blocks on which the post-WW2 world economy has been founded. And that spells trouble for the world at more important question for us in India is whether we can hope to grow at 6%-plus, as projected by RBI, finmin and IMF. Can we really expect to escape unscathed when the US - the main driver of post-WW2 growth - slows, or worse, enters a recession?Sure, we are largely a domestic-driven economy, and our exposure to the US, especially in terms of goods exports, is not significant. Sure, we are reportedly in the final stages of signing a trade deal with the US that will limit the damage from higher tariffs on our US-bound exports. But the collateral damage from trade wars, and dismantling of the world economic order as we know it today, cannot be contained by bilateral deals, with the US or any other what are the other options beyond trade deals before our policy authorities? What, if anything, can monetary and fiscal policy do in the face of such an unprecedented extraneous shock? Not much, really. RBI has cut interest rates twice in succession - in February and April 2025 - and modified its monetary policy stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative', infusing almost as much liquidity as during the pandemic, and over a shorter period. In contrast, GoI has been combination of loose monetary policy and relatively restrained fiscal policy worked during Covid, even though we paid a price in the form of a K-shaped recovery and high inflation subsequently. Whether the same policy combination will do the trick this time round remains to be seen. What is certain is that we will need more guard rails to address legitimate and pressing concerns of equity in the aftermath of Trump's trade war.
