4 days ago
2025 NHL Draft comparables: Which NHL players do top prospects resemble?
You've finally broken me, loyal (and sick) readers.
After years of protesting player comps or begrudgingly including them in my final column before the draft, the pressure to do them reached a critical mass. So fine, I've decided to provide them for the top 20 players on my list this year. I've also tried fleshing them out more so that you're not just getting a one-to-one name, and I can offer the comps the appropriate cloudiness.
Note, as a general rule, that these comps are meant to be more stylistic (similar look, attributes or profile) than projection.
If you want to understand why I've always been so reluctant to use them in my work, it's fully explained in my guide to scouting.
And if you're just a sucker for a quick one-to-one mental image and you want to browse through the names and skip the explainer, then I suppose I can't stop you.
Either way, consider this my final gift to you before the draft.
I don't always agree with the default, common comp, but when people draw a line between Heiskanen and Schaefer, I can absolutely see it. I've heard others use Jake Sanderson, but I think Schaefer and Sanderson defend differently, and I think Schaefer has more natural offense and gets even higher grades for his skating and smarts (two attributes which were Sanderson's calling card).
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Misa was the player I had the toughest time with in this exercise. I think there's a little Dylan Larkin in his profile. I think there's a little Sam Reinhart in his profile (though he's a much better skater than Reinhart was). I think there's some early years Paul Stastny to him when Stastny was a 70-plus point guy, but again, he's a better skater and will have a better career and a high peak in all likelihood. I think there's some Logan Couture, but again, I didn't love it. And then I started going back in time and arrived at Hossa, which felt too lofty as a Hall of Famer but fit for me as a player type. Both are 6-foot-1 and are skilled, but can play in different ways. I've always admired Hossa's career for the different chapters it had and the different players he was over time. I think Misa could become different things depending on his linemates, his role and his usage. It's still not perfect, but it was the closest I came.
Hagens uses the middle Hughes brother, and that's a comp you heard people use about him early on at the program. But despite the similarities in the way they handle the puck and their skating style, I think Hughes is more gifted/talented as a game-breaker, and I think Hagens has shown a more competitive spirit at the same age, which aligns him closer to Cooley's style of play. I think Cooley's a pretty close comp, though I do think Hagens has room to produce a little bit more if he reaches his ceiling.
Martone uses the Tkachuk brothers and Corey Perry as his comps, and I've had other people use each of those as well, but those guys run hotter than he does. I've often thought about Scheifele — the No. 7 pick in his draft year — with his 6-foot-3, 200-pound listing, his 35-40 goals and 70-80 points per season, and his combination of skill, size and leadership with average skating. The position is the difference there.
Some have used Jonathan Toews, and while I get it, I'm not going to position Desnoyers as a future Hall of Famer here. The names above feel more natural and likely comps. All are around 6-1 and are two-way centers who understand the details, the little things that contribute to winning and have provided legit offense (though in Monahan's case, it's been more inconsistent). Monahan was taken sixth and Lindholm was taken fifth. I think Desnoyers probably has a better career than Monahan and Lindholm and is a better prospect at the same age, but there are a lot of lines to draw between him and them. Hischier is within reach as well, though I don't think they fit together quite as well stylistically.
I've had people toss around Aleksander Barkov and Anze Kopitar, but I don't think we're talking about that level of defensive conscience/impact. They're perennial Selke favorites and two of the best two-way centers in the history of the game. I thought about Sean Couturier, but that didn't feel like a fit either. I think Lundell or Schenn with a bigger shot and a little more offense (Schenn has been a high-50s guy who broke 60 twice and hit 70 once, and I think Frondell can be a consistent 60s guy) feels closer.
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There aren't many players of Mrtka's size in the NHL, and I don't think he has the hardness that guys such as Colton Parayko, Aaron Ekblad, Nikita Zadorov and Erik Cernak do, or the offensive ceiling that we've seen Dougie Hamilton get to. I see some Power and Simon Edvinsson in his length, skating and poise, but Power had more pedigree at the same age, and Edvinsson is more physical (the same goes for Moritz Seider). Dobson isn't a perfect one-to-one, but I think there are some similarities there as well. Both of those names feel a little too high-end for Mrtka, but I don't think they're unreasonable.
Eklund's comp for himself is Konecny because of his motor, but I don't think Eklund quite has that level of rat. I thought about Conor Garland and Brendan Gallagher for the same reasons, but his game isn't as muddy and chippy as theirs either. He has the non-stop hunting and tracking, but it's more direct from one battle to the next, and he's not trying to hold and pin guys down in quite the same way to be effective on the forecheck. He wants to get in and out of his battles quicker, and there's more smarts and execution in between, which brought me to Marchessault.
There are a lot of parallels between O'Brien and Johnston. Both are 6-foot-1 and will play at about the same weight (a lean 180-something pounds). They impact the game primarily through their offensive and defensive IQs, are above-average skaters and played in the OHL. They're both from Toronto and have almost the same birthdays. Johnston's a little more well-rounded, I think. O'Brien has shown more puck skill/playmaking at the same age, but Johnston's pre-draft profile was obviously impacted by the pandemic, and I think O'Brien should be reaching for the 124-point post-draft campaign that Johnston had in Windsor.
Richards and Bennett were two of the comps I arrived at most easily. They're both ultimate competitors who were/are the heart and soul of their teams, elevated in tough moments, and played with an undying intensity and physical edge despite their average size. I think Martin can be that guy for a team.
McQueen gave Ryan Getzlaf to teams and the media, but I'm not sure I see him as a captain or the competitive center of a team in the same way Getzlaf was. He also doesn't fit the Tage Thompson or Mikko Rantanen comp that all of the tall forwards in every class seem to give now, and Aliaksei Protas is 240-plus pounds. Vilardi, Hayes and Wheeler are the three I kept coming back to (and not because of Vilardi's back history, but because of the player). Wheeler also had some of the Getzlaf intensity that I'm not quite sure McQueen has, but all three are really smart offensive thinkers of the game for their size who made a career of having great poise and feel on the puck. I think McQueen's got a higher ceiling than Vilardi and Hayes, but those guys feel like his floor.
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Carbonneau was one of the tougher players to come up with a proper comp for. I thought about Jake DeBrusk and Rakell, but Carbonneau has more pure puck skill than those two did at the same age. I think there's a little J.T. Miller or Alex Tuch to his game, but those guys have a couple of inches on him. Ultimately, Rakell felt the closest. He has broken 60 points three times and 70 points once, and has been a consistent 45-50-point guy in between. He has also scored 30-plus goals three times. I think Carbonneau can have a career like that.
Aitcheson uses Charlie McAvoy as his comp, but I don't think he rises to that No. 1 level. In terms of his physicality and hardness, he actually reminds me of players such as Radko Gudas and Tyler Tucker, but Aitcheson's ceiling is way higher than those two, and he has shown much more offense than they ever did in junior. The two I've gone to are Montour and Dumba, two 6-foot-1ish D who play staunch and competitive styles (Montour has really leaned into his physical nature more in the last few years) and play firm on both sides of the puck. They have each had very productive seasons over the course of their careers, but can also just give you 30-40 points and focus on defending hard. I think Aitcheson will have a better, more consistent career than Dumba, but probably never reach the heights that Montour did when he had 70-plus points that one year in Florida. He's meaner than Montour, even today, too. I see a little Rasmus Andersson and Bowen Byram as well.
Holloway had more strength/power at the same age, but otherwise, there are some similarities in their games, toolkits, style of play and approach. They're also obviously both left-handed wingers. I think Bear has a little more sense/skill than Holloway did at the same age, but Holloway had a bit more pop to his shot/stride. They play driven, competitive, physical, straight-line games.
This is one of a couple of comps that I actually used in my reports this year. I see some similarities between Reschny and Jarvis at the same age as 5-foot-10 WHL centers who produced 90-plus points in their draft years. They were among the best two-way forwards in their class, earning high marks for their work ethic, competitiveness, defensive commitment and smarts on both sides of it, and were real drivers for their teams at an early age. Jarvis would be a best-case outcome for Reschny and has become a top two-way forward in the NHL while still providing skill and offense, but I think that's what Reschny should be reaching for/who he should be studying.
I don't think Nazar or Skinner are perfect. Nazar's a little more competitive/interior driven than Potter, but Nazar went 13th, and Potter is going to go later than that. There are similarities in size, skating and handling (Potter might actually be even faster than Nazar, which is saying something).
Thomas Harley has been a common comp for Smith, and while there are similarities in the athletic profile and the decision-making learning that both needed at the same age, Harley was much more active/ambitious in transition at the same age. Chychrun's a more natural comp for me. They're really strong, well-built, athletic players who faced questions about their reads/decision-making, but have clear tools and ability.
The big thing teams have wanted to see out of Lakovic is just more consistency and competitiveness shift to shift and game to game. He's big and has all of the tools of skill, skating, scoring, etc. That has been Dubois throughout his career. I think there's a little bit of that in Jason Robertson, Tomas Hertl and Drake Batherson as well, but I think Dubois' play style/tools are closer to Lakovic's.
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I had someone float Josh Morrissey with me, but I don't think Reid has that level of offense in his projection. Mateychuk is actually a player comp I used in my Reid draft profile throughout the year (which is normally something I try to avoid). I think it's a very close comp. Mateychuk had more pedigree at the same age, but he also went 12th, and Reid is going to go in the mid-teens. They're 5-foot-11/6-foot D who are plus-level skaters and thinkers of the game, excel on offense and in defending and are very well-regarded for the way they carry themselves and lead. I'm really comfortable with this comp.
I think Skjei and Severson both work. They're 6-2/6-3 and play between 200-210 pounds (which is where I think Hensler will get, though more likely around 200). They have good tools (skating, passing, carrying, etc.). But they're also the classic what I like to call 'in-between defensemen' who can give you 30-40 points, have played in the top four on their teams and can contribute on both special teams but have never elevated to true PP1/PK1/first-pairing studs and are paid accordingly (Severson made around $4.17 million per year and then $6.25 million on his two big contracts, and Skjei made $5.25 million and then $7 million on his).
(Photos of Matthew Schaefer, Miro Heiskanen: Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
