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GCC economies buck global downturn; GDP to hit 4.4% in 2025
GCC economies buck global downturn; GDP to hit 4.4% in 2025

Zawya

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Zawya

GCC economies buck global downturn; GDP to hit 4.4% in 2025

Economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are bucking the trend of downgraded growth, with regional gross domestic product (GDP) poised to expand by 4.4% this year, an upgrade from previous forecasts. The stronger-than-expected growth will be driven primarily by higher oil output and robust non-oil sectors, especially in the region's two largest economies, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to ICAEW and Oxford Economics. "We have upgraded our GCC forecast due to faster OPEC+ output increases and sustained non-oil momentum in key economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE," said Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Advisor and Chief Economist and Managing Director, Oxford Economics Middle East. Last week, the World Bank slashed its projection for global GDP to 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than the forecast in the beginning of the year. The downgrade was attributed to heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Saudi, UAE economies Saudi Arabia is now expected to see its oil economy grow by 5.2% in 2025, a sharp increase from 1.9% previously, as oil output averages higher at 9.7 million barrels per day and non-oil sectors continue to expand, ICAEW and Oxford Economics noted. The kingdom's non-oil activities are projected to grow by 5.3%, while investor sentiment remains upbeat, with S&P recently upgrading the country's credit rating to A+. In the UAE, the economy will expand by 5.1% on the back of an oil output recovery, a 4.7% growth in non-oil GDP and deepening trade ties. The growth will also be driven by strong tourism, with international visitor spending expected to account for nearly 13% of GDP in 2025. "The GCC economies are showing remarkable adaptability amid shifting global trade dynamics. Investments in tourism, technology and infrastructure continue to pay dividends, strengthening resilience and laying the groundwork for long-term growth," said Hanadi Khalife, Head of Middle East, ICAEW. (Writing by Cleofe Maceda; editing by Seban Scaria)

OPEC oil output in May rises less than planned, Reuters survey finds
OPEC oil output in May rises less than planned, Reuters survey finds

Reuters

time09-06-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

OPEC oil output in May rises less than planned, Reuters survey finds

LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - OPEC oil output rose in May by less than the volume planned, a Reuters survey found, as Iraq made further cuts to compensate for earlier pumping above target and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates made smaller hikes than allowed. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.75 million barrels per day last month, up 150,000 bpd from April's total, the survey showed on Monday, with Saudi Arabia making the largest increase. OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and its allies, including Russia, is accelerating its plan to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts. At the same time, some members are required to make extra cuts to compensate for earlier overproduction, in theory limiting the impact of the hikes. Under an agreement by eight OPEC+ members covering May output, the five of them that are OPEC members - Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - were to raise output by 310,000 bpd. According to the survey, the actual increase by the five was 180,000 bpd, as compensation cuts by Iraq and lower exports by Saudi Arabia limited the increase. The biggest hike of 130,000 bpd came from Saudi Arabia, the survey found. Iraq, which is under pressure to boost compliance with OPEC+ output quotas, curbed output, the survey found, to meet its commitment for compensation cuts in May. The United Arab Emirates also pumped below its OPEC+ quota in May, the survey found, to reflect the country's relatively low commitments for compensation cuts, a source with knowledge of the issue said. There is a wide range of estimates of output in Iraq and the UAE with many outside sources putting the countries' output higher the the countries themselves. While the Reuters survey and April data provided by OPEC's secondary sources show they are pumping close to the quotas, other estimates, such as those of the International Energy Agency, say they are pumping significantly more. The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on flows data from financial group LSEG, information from other companies that track flows such as Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.

Opec+ agrees on sharp increase in July oil production to deepen price slump
Opec+ agrees on sharp increase in July oil production to deepen price slump

South China Morning Post

time31-05-2025

  • Business
  • South China Morning Post

Opec+ agrees on sharp increase in July oil production to deepen price slump

Opec+ has agreed to surge oil output by 411,000 barrels a day for the third month in a row, doubling down on a historic policy shift that has sent crude prices sinking. Advertisement Key nations led by Saudi Arabia agreed during a video conference on Saturday to add that amount to the market in July, according to delegates. The surge follows equally sized increases scheduled for May and June, marking a clear break with years of efforts by the group to support global oil prices. 'Opec+ isn't whispering any more,' said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy A/S, who previously worked at the Opec secretariat. 'May hinted, June spoke clearly, and July came with a megaphone.' In a statement issued after the meeting, Opec+ cited a 'steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories' as its reasoning for the July increase. While there was ultimately a consensus for the July increase, some members expressed reservations. During Saturday's discussions, Russia was among members that recommended a pause in the supply increases, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information was private. Advertisement Oil briefly crashed to a four-year low under US$60 a barrel in April after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies first announced that they would bolster output by triple the scheduled amount, even as faltering demand and President Donald Trump's trade war were already crushing the market.

OPEC+ Agrees on Third Oil Supply Surge to Deepen Price Slump
OPEC+ Agrees on Third Oil Supply Surge to Deepen Price Slump

Bloomberg

time31-05-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

OPEC+ Agrees on Third Oil Supply Surge to Deepen Price Slump

OPEC+ agreed to surge oil output by 411,000 barrels a day for the third month in a row, doubling down on a historic policy shift that has sent crude prices sinking. Key nations led by Saudi Arabia agreed during a video-conference on Saturday to add that amount to the market in July, according to delegates. The hike follows equally sized increases scheduled for May and June, which broke with years of efforts by the group to support global oil prices and dragged crude to a four-year low.

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