Latest news with #nuclearforces
Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Times
How the world could start a nuclear war by accident
The growing use of artificial intelligence in military planning could increase the risk of accidental nuclear war, a leading arms control monitor has said. In its annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the leading independent body assessing worldwide nuclear forces, says the world's nuclear stockpiles are about to be no longer in decline. The stocks had been declining since the end of the Cold War. It highlights the fast-increasing stocks of China, which have grown from 500 to 600 warheads in the year, and the imminent expiry of the last remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The institute's director, Dan Smith, also warns that the new arms race 'carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one', not least because of the development of new technologies. 'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence (AI), both for offensive and defensive purposes,' he writes in the report's introduction. 'There are benefits to be found but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk.' He says that AI and quantum technologies could make it easier to assess compliance with any nuclear agreements that are forged. But they encourage speedier — and possibly less considered — decision-making. 'As the new technologies speed up decision-making in a crisis, there is also the risk of a war as a result of miscommunication, misunderstanding or even a technical accident,' he says. Nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Five are the permanent members of the United Nations security council, and signatories of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT): the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. Two declared nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, did not sign the NPT, while a third, North Korea, withdrew before conducting its first nuclear test. Israel neither signed the NPT, nor declared its nuclear weapons, but is believed to possess about 90 warheads. China has been expanding its arsenal fastest. President Xi ordered a modernisation of China's entire military but particularly its missile and nuclear capabilities, reportedly after details emerged about the decay of its missile silos. The modernisation appears to be working. The Sipri report says 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos have been completed, or are near completion, as of January this year. However, its total number of warheads remains a fraction of those possessed by either America or Russia: together they hold nine in ten of the world's nuclear weapons. As their relations have worsened since 2000, and an aggressive new breed of American strategists have questioned whether US choices should be restrained by international treaties, their existing arms control measures have fallen away. The so-called 'New Start' (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) agreed by Presidents Obama and Putin in 2010 expires next February with no sign that it will be renewed in any form. Until now, the disposal of old nuclear warheads has meant that the total arsenal has declined rapidly since the fall of the Berlin Wall. That trend is now over, the report suggests. 'The sizes of their respective military stockpiles seem to have stayed relatively stable in 2024 but both states are implementing extensive modernisation programmes that could increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future,' it says. The Sipri report raises the case of Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the Soviet officer sometimes heralded as the man who saved the world from nuclear Armageddon. In 1983, Petrov decided unilaterally but correctly that a computer which told him five American nuclear missiles were on their way to strike Russia was wrong. Jeffrey Kaplow, who researches nuclear security at the University of William and Mary in Virginia, said AI , if programmed well, could be used to assess risk in such circumstances better than humans. 'There's this idea that human decision-making in a crisis is not that great,' he said. AI could help leaders navigate the cultural context and goals of their 'opposition' more clearly, he said.'The signs are that a new nuclear arms race is gearing up,' Smith concludes. 'Compared to the last one, the risks are likely to be more diverse and more serious.'
Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Times
China's nuclear buildup raises fears of AI-driven war
The growing use of artificial intelligence in military planning could increase the risk of accidental nuclear war, a leading arms control monitor has said. In its annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the leading independent body assessing worldwide nuclear forces, says the world's nuclear stockpiles are about to be no longer in decline. The stocks had been declining since the end of the Cold War. It highlights the fast-increasing stocks of China, which have grown from 500 to 600 warheads in the year, and the imminent expiry of the last remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The institute's director, Dan Smith, also warns that the new arms race 'carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one', not least because of the development of new technologies.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The estimated cost for US nuclear weapons nears $1 trillion in new report
May 11—Rising prices aren't just coming for eggs and avocados. The estimated price tag for the country's nuclear forces is 25% more than it was in 2023, according to a new Congressional Budget Office report. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates nuclear forces will cost $946 billion from 2025 through 2034, about $95 billion every year. In 2023, the 10-year estimate was $756 billion for 2023-2032. Some of those increases are coming from the cost for modernizing production facilities for nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Projected costs for command, control, communications and early-warning systems have also seen a substantial increase. The co-founder of an anti-nuclear nonprofit called the increase staggering. A higher bar for laboratory safety standards contributes to the high price for producing new nuclear warheads, according to a professor on nuclear engineering. Many of the country's nuclear forces, including submarines that launch ballistic missiles, land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, long-range bomber aircraft and shorter-range tactical aircraft carrying bombs and nuclear warheads, will need to be refurbished or replaced over the next 20 years, according to the report. "Over the coming years, lawmakers will need to decide what nuclear forces the United States should field in the future and therefore the extent to which the nation will continue to modernize, and perhaps expand, those forces," the report states. Some of the cost increase, at least $65 billion, does not reflect actual rising costs. Instead, it's simply because the new estimate focuses on a slightly later time period when nuclear arsenal modernization will be further along. Later development and production phases tend to be more expensive, according to the report. Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, overseen by the National Nuclear Security Administration, is one of two sites that will produce new plutonium pits to replace old warheads. Last year, the lab made its first new production unit plutonium pit. Spherical plutonium pits cause nuclear fission when compressed and are at the core of every nuclear explosive. The majority of the projected cost increases are associated with Department of Defense programs. But the "laboratories, plants, and sites across the nation are an integral part of our nuclear security program," an NNSA spokesperson said in a statement. President Donald Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are committed to "modernizing our nuclear deterrent," the spokesperson said. "NNSA is currently executing seven different warhead modernization programs which require the national security laboratories' expertise in weapons programs, design and engineering, and production," the spokesperson said. The first-ever plutonium pits were made during the Manhattan Project at Los Alamos, but many subsequent pits were produced in Colorado until the 1980s. The way pits are manufactured now has changed significantly from how it was done decades ago, said Carl Willis, a professor in the University of New Mexico's Department of Nuclear Engineering. What is considered acceptable in terms of safety for human health and the environment has changed since the country previously made plutonium pits, contributing to a higher production cost, Willis said. "We're building these new facilities from scratch, and the understanding of industrial hygiene, and particularly the hygiene of handling plutonium, has changed, and our ability to detect plutonium in the environment has gotten a lot better," Willis said. Greg Mello, with the anti-nuclear nonprofit Los Alamos Study Group, called for Congress to kill the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program based on the CBO report. The Sentinel program is replacing Minuteman III missiles with Sentinel missiles, as well as upgrading missile silos and launch control centers. Los Alamos is building plutonium pits to be used in Sentinel missiles. The CBO report does not include all the cost growth that the Sentinel program is likely to experience, because the Department of Defense is restructuring the program after its cost increases triggered a review. "As CBO notes, there will be increased competition for defense dollars as nuclear weapons programs grow. The huge expenses tallied in this report were not anticipated at the outset of the nuclear modernization program," Mello said in a statement. "Since 2015, and with every report, estimated nuclear weapons costs have increased beyond prior predictions, from $348 billion in 2015 to $946 billion today. The opportunity costs are staggering." The cost for nuclear weapons could be even higher in the next CBO estimate, Willis said, because the latest report does not consider Trump administration priorities.
Russia Today
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
North Korea holds ‘nuclear counterattack' drills (PHOTOS)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has overseen a military exercise simulating a nuclear counterattack, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). The drill, conducted on Thursday, involved the launch of short-range ballistic missiles and long-range artillery to assess the readiness of the nation's nuclear forces. The exercise featured 600mm multiple-launch rocket systems and the Hwasong-11 (KN-23) tactical ballistic missile, both with alleged nuclear capabilities. The missiles reportedly flew approximately 800 kilometers before landing in the sea, demonstrating the operational capacity of North Korea's missile systems. The drill also included an inspection of the 'nuclear trigger' system, designed to manage and control the nation's deterrence arsenal and ensure rapid deployment if necessary. 'The goal of the drill was achieved, and the reliability of the command and mobilization system capable of quickly reacting to any nuclear crisis was verified,' KCNA reported. Kim emphasized the importance of maintaining the combat readiness of the country's nuclear forces, highlighting the need to enhance long-range precision strike capabilities and overall weapons efficiency. Last month, the North Korean leader called for accelerated efforts to arm the country's navy with nuclear weapons, while attending a weapons systems test aboard the DPRK's Choe Hyon multi-mission destroyer. After witnessing the demonstration, he reportedly noted that the warship's firepower still relied on conventional weaponry and 'cannot be called a reliable means of maritime defense.' The United States and South Korea have been conducting regular joint military exercises in the region, which North Korea has repeatedly condemned as provocative. In response, Pyongyang has increased its missile testing, asserting its right to self-defense and deterrence. Russia has also pledged to help protect North Korea if it comes under attack, under a mutual defense agreement signed last year. The treaty obligates both parties to provide immediate military assistance to each other if necessary. The agreement was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim in June 2024, after which North Korean troops officially joined Moscow's military operation aimed at repelling a Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk Region. Putin later expressed gratitude for the role Pyongyang's troops played in liberating the region, noting that they had demonstrated 'heroism, a high level of specialized training, and bravery.'
Japan Times
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
North Korea's Kim leads missile test, stresses nuclear force readiness
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a test of a short-range ballistic missile and long-range artillery on Thursday and stressed the importance of combat readiness of the country's nuclear forces, state media reported Friday. The test, which also included an inspection of the operational reliability of its "nuclear trigger" system, was designed to ensure the rapid response posture to counter the sensitive regional military climate, the official Korean Central News Agency said. South Korea and Japan on Thursday reported multiple ballistic missiles were fired from North Korea's east coast in what was believed to be a performance test of short-range missiles that had been already deployed. KCNA said the 600 mm multiple launch rocket systems and tactical ballistic missile Hwasong-11 were mobilized for the test. Hwasong-11 is known internationally as KN-23, a series of the North's short-range ballistic missiles that Ukraine and Western officials have said were being supplied to Russia and used by Moscow to strike Ukraine. Ahead of the missile launches, there was an inspection of a nuclear defense system, dubbed by the North as "nuclear trigger," KCNA said. "Kim Jong Un said that it is very important to steadily perfect the normal combat readiness of the nuclear force to deter war and fight war," KCNA said. "He said that the DPRK should continue to direct efforts to steadily improving the long-range precision striking capability and efficiency of weapons systems," KCNA said, using the short form for the country's official name. A South Korean military official and an analyst said Thursday's missile launches were was likely to test the performance of a short-range missile arsenal, possibly to upgrade them for export.
