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Arabian Post
a day ago
- Business
- Arabian Post
Citi Warns Hormuz Closure Could Propel Oil Near $90
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai Citigroup analysts warn that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could lift Brent crude prices to approximately $90 a barrel, although they expect any halt to shipping to be brief. They cite the strategic importance of the strait—through which nearly 20 million barrels per day flow—suggesting market reaction would be sharp but short-lived as global efforts would swiftly aim to reopen the passage. Citigroup's forecast is embedded in a wider reassessment of global oil dynamics amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly stemming from the Israel‑Iran conflict. With around 3 million barrels per day of output at potential risk and Iran among OPEC's top producers, disruptions—even temporary—could reverberate across the energy market. Citi's base-case scenario projects Brent at $75–78 per barrel if approximately 1.1 million barrels daily of Iranian exports are affected. ADVERTISEMENT A total 3 million bpd disruption, sustained over months, could even hit the $90 mark, Citi warns. Still, analysts emphasise that broader supply resilience, including increased output from non‑OPEC producers and reduced demand growth—due in part to slowing Chinese purchases—might temper a sustained rally. Other leading financial institutions draw a similar line: Goldman Sachs and Barclays point to heightened geopolitical risk premiums, respectively estimating $10 and $15–20 per barrel add-ons if Iran's exports are severely cut—a situation that could push prices above $100 in extreme scenarios. JPMorgan outlines a worst-case blockade of the Hormuz strait leading to a $120‑130 spike, though such events would likely be fleeting. Analysts and experts stress that while short-term oil supply disruptions would sharply affect spot prices, structural market factors could offset prolonged volatility. OPEC has spare capacity; U.S. shale output remains nimble; and China has begun trimming its purchases as inventories fill, helping absorb supply shocks. Geosphere Capital's Arvind Sanger assesses a 25 percent likelihood of an actual tactical attack on critical infrastructure such as Kharg Island or Hormuz, but holds that there is a 75 percent chance hostilities do not directly impact supply chains. Shipping insurance and risk premiums are rising, though long‑term disruption remains unlikely. Diplomatic signals, particularly from Washington playing a stabilising role in response to Iranian threats, may also help contain risks. Historical precedent—such as Rapid US naval deployments near the strait in 2008—reinforces the view that any attempt to close Hormuz by Tehran would quickly provoke international counter‑measures. Market movements reflect this delicate balance. Brent futures recently climbed above $78 before easing to the low‑to mid‑$70s, as traders weighed the potential for escalation against buffer capacity and broader production trends. Estimates from Rystad Energy suggest oil will likely remain capped below $80 unless dramatic escalation occurs—a view echoed by Midland Reporter‑Telegram coverage. Citi's note, authored by Anthony Yuen and Eric Lee, highlights that even though Hormuz closure would trigger a pronounced price spike, global strategic response and logistical imperatives would likely curtail its duration. They describe that, in their bullish scenario, 'any closure of the Strait could lead to a sharp price spike … but … it should not be a multi‑month closure.' Investors are advised to monitor diplomatic channels, oil inventories, and production shifts in Saudi Arabia, UAE and the US. While a temporary supply squeeze may lift prices—potentially to the $90 level—structural growth in non‑OPEC output and strategic reserves may prevent a prolonged energy shock.
Arabian Post
09-06-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
OPEC+ Quota Increases Yet to Yield Production Gains
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai OPEC+ has escalated production quotas by roughly one million barrels per day from March to June, aiming to reactivate idled capacity, yet actual output across the group remains flat, according to data from Morgan Stanley analysts led by Martijn Rats. Saudi Arabia in particular shows no detectable uptick, underscoring a lag between policy shifts and market reality. The decision to accelerate quota rollbacks follows sustained cuts totalling around 2.2 million b/d, initiated in early 2023 to support prices. With non‑OPEC supply growing and global demand weakening, the efficacy of supply restraint has waned, prompting OPEC+ to pivot back to restoring output gradually. Despite headline quota increases of approximately 137,000 b/d per month since April, actual deliveries appear limited. ADVERTISEMENT Underlying structural factors are at play. Several members—most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq—have reportedly exceeded their quotas, diluting the announced gains. Saudi Arabia, with substantial spare capacity, stands out as the most capable contributor to any genuine rise in output. However, its contribution remains muted so far. Analysts suggest this reflects a strategic choice to reclaim market share rather than an immediate scale-up. Analysts at Morgan Stanley project modest growth: between June and September, OPEC+ core members may add around 420,000 b/d—approximately half of which could originate from Saudi Arabia. Even then, actual production may fall well short of quotas, with implementation challenges persisting. This gap between policy and output carries market implications. With more supply forecast, Morgan Stanley predicts a surplus of roughly 800,000 b/d in Q4 and 1.5–2.0 million b/d in early 2026, pressuring Brent crude prices down toward the mid‑$50s. Currently, Brent trades near $66 per barrel—11% below its level at the start of the year. In parallel, geopolitical friction between Saudi Arabia and Russia surfaced during policy talks. Riyadh favoured a more aggressive quota rollback, while Moscow, alongside Oman and Algeria, urged caution amid worries about demand resilience. The compromise settled on another 411,000 b/d increase for July, a repetition of earlier monthly hikes. Markets initially responded positively: oil prices climbed 3–4% following the July quota announcement, with Brent touching the mid‑$60s. That rebound, however, reflected relief over continuity rather than enthusiasm over fresh supply. Wildfires in Canada and refinery maintenance cycles were also cited as supporting factors. Across OPEC+, reliability of quotas remains a concern. While some members exceed limits, others—constrained by infrastructure or investment—may struggle to ramp up. Saudi Arabia's spare capacity remains central, but constraints on countries like Russia complicate the outlook even as OPEC+ restores cut volumes faster than planned. Meanwhile, non‑OPEC supply continues to grow, particularly in the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil—with forecast increases of about 1.1 million b/d in 2025. That expansion alone could outpace expected global demand growth of 800,000 b/d, risking oversupply irrespective of OPEC+ decisions. With a full quota restoration now likely by September 2025—months ahead of the original schedule—and non‑OPEC volumes outweighing demand growth, the market faces a mounting supply glut heading into late 2025 and 2026. Analysts caution that idled capacity may remain untouched for months beyond official quotas, delaying meaningful production gains. As OPEC+ enters this intensified phase of quota reopening, its central challenge remains execution rather than announcement. High-profile policy shifts are yet to translate into barrels at market, and the divergence between targets and reality could widen over the coming quarters. Market players are now watching whether Saudi Arabia leads by example or the rhetoric fades before the pumps do.
