Latest news with #non-Opec
The Star
2 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Oil prices capped despite geopolitical conflict
TA Research has retained its 'neutral' view on the O&G sector. PETALING JAYA: Any further upside to the price premium of crude oil prices fuelled by the Iran-Israel conflict is constrained by ample spare capacity among Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its members (Opec) members as well as non-Opec suppliers, TA Research states in its oil and gas (O&G) sector report. It said global demand for energy also remains weaker due to slower economic activity and the increased use of electric vehicles. The research house added the geopolitical premium put on crude oil prices since the conflict erupted is more likely to be transient rather than transformative. 'The global oil supply backdrop remains relatively resilient despite the geopolitical turmoil. Opec, led by Saudi Arabia, holds sufficient spare production capacity to offset most short term disruptions from Iran,' it stated. TA Research added US shale producers continue to deliver robust output levels, averaging a steady 13.4 million barrels per day while other non-Opec producers like Brazil, Canada, and Guyana are also ramping up supply, contributing to a broader narrative of a well-supplied global market. While supply-side fears can generate temporary price rallies, the demand picture remains insufficiently supportive for a sustained oil bull cycle without further macroeconomic improvement, TA Research opined. 'While the war may add volatility, the probability of a sustained supply shock remains relatively low unless additional producers or infrastructure become targets,' it summarised. Hence, TA Research has maintained its average Brent crude oil price forecast of US$73 a barrel for 2025. 'We retain our 'neutral' view on the O&G sector, as we believe the risk-reward balance remains evenly poised. 'We reiterate our preference for oil and gas players with strong export linkages and robust cash generation, such as Pantech Group Holdings Bhd and MISC Bhd ,' the research house noted. It explained that MISC ('buy', target price: RM8.40) stands to benefit from increased demand for tanker freight and floating solutions, particularly as shipping markets remain volatile. Additionally, Pantech ('buy', target price: 96 sen), meanwhile, is well placed to ride on higher project flows for pipeline and industrial fittings, driven by infrastructure upgrades and intensified maintenance cycles in response to supply chain vulnerabilities. That said, TA Research said should diplomacy prevail and the war drums go quiet, it forecasts crude oil prices to correct to US$60 to US$65 a barrel level for the Brent contract. Furthermore, should there be complications in the Straits of Hormuz which disrupt supply lines out of the region, prices could spike to US$100 to US$120 a barrel levels.
Business Times
28-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Oil gains on supply concerns, investors await July Opec+ output decision
[NEW YORK] Oil prices gained more than 1 per cent on Wednesday on supply concerns as Opec+ agreed to leave their output policy unchanged and as the US barred Chevron from exporting Venezuelan crude. Investors previously anticipated members of Opec+ would agree to a production increase later this week. Brent crude futures settled up 81 cents, or 1.26 per cent, to US$64.90 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 95 cents, or 1.56 per cent, to stand at US$61.84 a barrel. Opec+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, did not change output policy. It agreed to establish a mechanism for setting baselines for its 2027 oil production. Most oil-producing countries at the meeting do not have flexibility to adjust their output, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. 'They were hoping to slow the pace of production increases and stop the slide in price. But that's not the way it panned out,' he added. A separate meeting on Saturday of eight Opec+ countries is expected to decide on an increase in oil output for July. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Goldman Sachs analysts saw the group of eight keeping production steady after the July hike. 'However, we see the risks to our Opec8+ supply path as skewed to the upside, especially if compliance doesn't improve or if hard demand data surprise further to the upside,' they added. Coming demand for the summer driving season is significant, and with non-Opec+ crude output flat in the first half of the year, coupled with risks of Canadian wildfires hurting supply, the call on crude is stronger from Opec+, said Janiv Shah, vice-president of oil commodity markets analysis at Rystad Energy. On Wednesday, Chevron terminated the oil production, service and procurement contracts it had to operate in Venezuela, but it plans to retain its direct staff in the country, sources said. Both benchmarks ticked up in the previous session on concerns of tighter supply after the US barred Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela under a new authorisation on its assets there. Analysts also said prices could respond positively if there was progress on global trade talks or resolving US-Iranian friction. Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami said on Wednesday it might allow the UN nuclear watchdog to send US inspectors to visit nuclear sites if Tehran's talks with Washington succeed. US crude stocks fell by 4.24 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. Market participants now await government data on crude inventories due on Thursday. REUTERS
Zawya
06-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
South Africa Fuel price relief: petrol and diesel costs to decrease in May
Motorists will breathe a sigh of relief from Wednesday as the cost of all grades of petrol is set to come down. This is as the Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Gwede Mantashe, announced the adjustment of fuel prices based on current local and international factors with effect from Wednesday, 7 May 2025. The price of petrol 93 (ULP and LRP) will decrease by 22c a litre while the price of 95 (ULP and LRP) will also come down by 22c a litre. Currently, a litre of petrol 95 costs R21.62 in Gauteng. As of Wednesday, this will come down to R21.40 a litre. At the coast, a litre of 95 petrol, which costs R20.79 a litre, will cost R20. 57 as of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the price of Diesel (0.05% sulphur) will decrease by 42c a litre and that of Diesel (0.005% sulphur) will come down by 41c a litre. The price of Illuminating Paraffin (wholesale) will decrease by 31c per litre. The Single Maximum National Retail Price (SMNRP) for illuminating paraffin will see a 41c decrease and the maximum LPGas Retail Price will increase by 46c per kilogram. 'The average Brent Crude oil price decreased from $71.04 to $66.40 during the period under review,' said the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. It added that the tariff and trade war initiated by the United States which has raised global economic recession concerns, and a possible lower demand for crude oil, and oversupply of oil from non-Opec countries and the anticipated increase in oil production by Opec+ members were the main contributing factors for the fuel price adjustments. 'The average international petroleum product prices of petrol and diesel followed the decreasing trend of crude oil prices while the price of LPG increased due to higher freight (shipping costs) during the period under review,' said the department. All rights reserved. © 2022. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
The National
05-05-2025
- Business
- The National
Oil prices slump on Opec+ decision to accelerate production
Oil prices slumped sharply on Monday after the Opec+ alliance of oil-producing countries agreed to increase production for a second month in a row. Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was down 3.65 per cent at 8.35am UAE time to $59.06 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, sank almost 4 per cent to $55.99 a barrel. Oil prices have taken a hammering over the past few weeks, and both benchmarks were down about 17 per cent year-to-date, as of close on Friday. The Opec+ group of producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, on Friday said it would add 411,000 barrels a day to the market next month. The announcement after an online meeting of the countries, which was brought forward from Monday, followed the larger-than-planned output rise, also of 411,000 bpd, for May. The group said it has taken the decision to increase crude output 'in view of the current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories'. The Opec+ decision follows the December 5 agreement to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments that started from April 1. 'The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,' Opec said in the statement. However, the accelerated hike in the output, together with US trade tariffs that has dampened economic growth expectations, has clouded demand outlook for crude, dragging prices below $60 a barrel to a four-year low. 'Crude futures were back on a slippery slope early Monday in response to Saturday's decision by the Opec/non-Opec group of eight members to accelerate the phase-out of their production cuts for a second consecutive month,' Singapore-based oil markets consultancy Vanda Insights wrote in a note on its website. The group's combined output target for June, at 31.375 million bpd, is about 411,000 bpd higher than May and triple what had been planned in March, when the group laid out a plan to gradually unwind its 2.2 million bpd of cuts over 18 months, according to Vanda Insights. 'Sentiment got a fresh bearish jolt from media reports after Saturday's meeting that the G8 could bring back the entire 2.2 million bpd into the market by November,' the consultancy said. On Sunday, Barclays lowered its Brent oil price forecast by $4 per barrel to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 per barrel for 2026, citing the decision by Opec+ to accelerate oil production hikes. 'Tariff-related developments have certainly been a drag but the Opec+ pivot has also been a significant driver of the move lower in oil prices of late,' Reuters cited Barclays as saying in a note to investors. Barclays also revised its baseline view on Opec+, expecting the group to continue its accelerated path of phasing out additional voluntary adjustments, and now sees it taking effect in six months from the initial plan of 18.
Zawya
02-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Lower fuel costs emerge short-term positive factor for global air cargo
A cargo handler prepares air freight containers for a British Airways flight at Heathrow Airport, in London. The latest IATA data for global air cargo markets showed total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, increased by 4.4% compared to March 2024 levels ( 5.5% for international operations), a historic peak for March. Jet fuel is one of the largest cost components for air carriers—often up to 30–40% of total operating expenses. When fuel prices drop, airlines obviously save significantly on expenses, especially for long-haul or frequent routes. Margins also improve, allowing carriers to stay profitable even with competitive pricing. Stronger load factors so far in 2025, combined with decreased fuel costs have contributed to a rise in air cargo yields globally, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which is the global body of airlines. Oil markets experienced significant changes in March this year, primarily driven by increased production from non-Opec+ nations, amid slower global demand due to trade friction, IATA noted in a recent report. Brent crude's average price in March fell to $72.6, marking eight straight months of y-o-y decline. This represents a 15.1% decrease compared to last year and a 3.5% drop from February. Jet fuel costs plunged even more sharply, falling 17.3% y-o-y to $88.9 and decreasing 6% m-o-m—marking the second month in a row of declines, IATA data reveal. This sharper fall in jet fuel compared to oil narrowed the crack spread to $16.3, a 26.2% drop from $22.1 in March, 2024. Like fuel prices, the spread saw its second straight monthly fall, sliding 3.5%. Meanwhile, stronger load factors (so far) in 2025, combined with decreased fuel costs, contributed to a rise in air cargo yields. These yields jumped 3.8% from last year and 6.6% from February. This rebound ends a three month streak of monthly yield declines that lasted through February. Meanwhile, the latest IATA data for global air cargo markets showed total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 4.4% compared to March 2024 levels (+5.5% for international operations), a historic peak for March. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), expanded by 4.3% compared to March 2024 (+6.1% for international operations). Typically, March volumes rise after a lull in February, driven by the easing of holiday demand. This year's modest single-digit increase aligns with trends observed in years not influenced by post-Covid recovery factors, where such gradual gains were common. Moreover, a frontloading effect could be implemented to mitigate the tariff impacts in April. Air shipments increased by 3.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) from February to March, after seasonal adjustments. This jump matches past trends, but current events may have contributed to the boost. 'The sharp rise in US tariffs may have prompted companies and buyers to make purchases in advance to avoid significant import fees,' IATA said and noted air cargo demand grew across most regions in March. Asia Pacific led the growth with a 9.3% increase, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean at 5.6%. North American carriers rebounded from a decline (- 1.3%) in February to achieve a growth rate of 3.7%. European airlines experienced a 4.4% increase. However, carriers in the Middle East and Africa faced ongoing challenges for the third consecutive month. The Middle East recorded its smallest decline so far at 3.3%, while Africa saw its sharpest drop at 13.4%. Both regions are experiencing the effect of a strong 2024, which suggests that 2025 will be a challenging year. IATA's Director General Willie Walsh said, 'March cargo volumes were strong. It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed 2 April tariff announcement by the Trump Administration. The uncertainty over how much of the 2 April proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade. 'In the meantime, the lower fuel costs — which are also a result of the same uncertainty — are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains.' Analysts believe that lower transport costs via air cargo will encourage more international trade, especially of high-value or time-critical goods. Therefore, many forwarders are likely to make air freight a more attractive option compared to slower modes (e.g., sea freight). This enhances the resilience and flexibility of global supply chains. Lower jet fuel price help carriers either improve their bottom line or slash prices to attract more customers, gaining market share. This is especially important in air cargo, where price sensitivity among logistics providers and shippers is high. © Gulf Times Newspaper 2022 Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
