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Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
An early look at the 2026 midterm elections
This article was first published in the On the Hill newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Friday mornings here. Hello, friends. We're officially halfway through 2025 and it's been … an interesting year thus far. There was a lot of news this week, stretching from the Oval Office to Capitol Hill, which I'll try to unpack below with an assist from my colleague Lauren Irwin. But first, I thought it might be helpful to take a look at the elephant in the room: the upcoming midterm elections that will soon dictate everyone's behaviors and talking points. — Cami Mondeaux It's more than a year until Election Day on Nov. 3, 2026. But for those unaccustomed to Washington, D.C., an important note: It's always campaign season in the nation's capital. Both chambers of Congress will be up for grabs next fall, and both parties are already strategizing on how they're going to defend their slim majorities or topple their opponents to regain at least a sliver of control. It could be too early to determine which issues will be the selling points for next year. After all, voters historically have short-term memories and it's often the biggest news cycle closest to Election Day that sways opinions the most. But it's clear that Republicans and Democrats are already trying to make their jobs easier for when campaign season begins in earnest — especially for those in the most vulnerable seats. So let's start off with the math. Republicans currently control both the House and the Senate, albeit by the slimmest of margins. There are 35 seats up for reelection in the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority. However, that makes it seem like there is opportunity for a bigger shake-up than there actually will be. To put into context, only about six of these races will actually be competitive. And only two — both held by Democrats — are considered 'toss-ups.' Those are the seats held by Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and the open Michigan seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters. So it puts Democrats in a bit of a defensive posture. Making things more difficult, they'll also need to defend Minnesota's and New Hampshire's Senate seats, which will both be open next year — ridding them of any incumbent advantage. Republicans, meanwhile, will have their work cut out for them in the House. The party currently holds only a 220-212 majority (three seats are absent because of recent deaths, but are likely to lean Democratic) and there are a fair share of competitive races ahead. There are 19 seats expected to be 'toss-ups' in the House next year, 10 held by Democrats and nine by Republicans. But if history tells us anything, Republicans could be the ones at a disadvantage. Historical trends show that the party of the sitting president typically loses control of the House during the midterm elections, giving the minority party an edge. One of the exceptions to that came during George W. Bush's first term, when Republicans actually gained seats in the House after the 9/11 attacks. Then again, Democrats had significant messaging struggles during the 2024 cycle, and it's not clear if they've been able to overcome those to make any gains. But there are some clues as to what they may be looking at to help win over voters who turned against them last November. One area they'll likely try to work on: transgender rights. Democrats have amplified that messaging over the last several years, even though polling shows their stance on the issue has gotten less popular among voters. Democratic Rep. Sarah McBride, who made history as the first transgender member of Congress last year, explained why she thinks Democrats lost ground on the issue. 'Candidly, I think we've lost the art of persuasion. We've lost the art of change-making over the last couple of years,' McBride told The New York Times this week. 'There was a very clear, well-coordinated, well-funded effort to demonize trans people, to stake out positions on fertile ground for anti-trans politics and to have those be the battlegrounds — rather than some of the areas where there's more public support.' Some Democrats have already started to temper their stances on transgender issues, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is considered a top contender for the party should he choose to run for president. Newsom made headlines in March when he admitted he believed transgender athletes playing in women's sports was 'deeply unfair' and criticized Democrats' practice of declaring pronouns in professional introductions. 'I had one meeting where people started going around the table with the pronouns,' Newsom told conservative influencer Charlie Kirk in March. 'I'm like ... 'Why is this the biggest issue?'' Democrats have also made it clear they plan to hammer Republicans on policy issues tucked into President Donald Trump's tax bill — particularly those putting programs such as Medicaid or SNAP at risk. Some Republicans have conceded the giant tax bill could put some of their members at risk. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., for one, has not been shy to rail against a proposal to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion or $5 trillion — predicting that would later be used against them if they vote for it. 'We roll around to 2026 elections, what are they going to say? 'Oh, Democrats, you know, they're for borrow(ing) and spend(ing),'' Paul said. 'But now the Republicans will have joined the Democrats in being for borrow(ing) and spend(ing).' Republicans' performance (and Democrats', too) could depend on what Trump does over the next year and a half. We'll look at how voters view the president so far below. As the election season nears, I'll be keeping a close eye on these issues. Reach out if you have specific policy questions you're interested in or want answers from your representatives. — Cami Mondeaux Lee in the hot seat: Sen. Mike Lee deleted a series of social media posts about a double homicide in Minnesota over the weekend after he was confronted by two of his Senate colleagues over what they said were 'cruel' and insensitive posts. The Deseret News editorial board urged Lee to publicly apologize. Security brief: Lawmakers are pushing for increased security while in Washington and at home after those shootings in Minnesota rattled several members who say they have received similar threats in recent weeks. No decisions have been made about how to counter potential threats, but members said there was bipartisan support for increased resources. Tax bill trouble: Senate Republican leaders are in crunch time as they attempt to get all corners of their party to agree on key provisions of President Donald Trump's signature tax bill. But some provisions have not been met with open arms … and could push lawmakers past their July 4 deadline. As Trump reaches the five-month mark of his second term, much of his legacy can be described as 'a frenetic pace of executive orders and action on issues related to culture as well as immigration and foreign policy,' my colleague Lauren Irwin writes. The Deseret News conducted polling about how Utah voters feel about his term so far — here's a recap of what Lauren found: 'A reliably red state, Utah voters generally approve of Trump's job performance, while a sizable minority still disapproves of his action. Among those surveyed, a majority, 56%, approve of Trump's job as president, which is up from 54% in an April survey. 'Trump still remains popular with Republicans in Utah. Nearly 80% of Utah Republicans approve of the job he's doing as commander in chief, with 47% of them who say they 'strongly approve' of his performance. 'The president performs best with white Utahns, males and with Utahns who are 35-49, the survey found. 'According to the survey, 61% approve of Trump's handling of immigration, while 35% disapprove. Republicans in the state overwhelmingly support Trump on immigration, while just 21% of Democrats approve. Independents were fairly split down the middle on Trump's immigration policy. 'Utahns also strongly approved of Trump's efforts to reduce the cost of government, with 59% job approval compared to 34% who don't approve, and of his administration of the government, with 55% approval compared to 40% who don't approve.' Read Lauren's full analysis here. — Cami Mondeaux and Lauren Irwin From the Hill : Senate Democrat pushes to restrict U.S. military involvement in Iran. … Majority of Utahns support DOGE spending cuts. … House Republicans launch an investigation into LA riots. From the White House: Trump administration eyes Greenland over security concerns. … Trump Organization launches smartphone. … Key moments from the U.S. Army's 250th birthday event. From the courts: Supreme Court upholds ban on medical treatment for transgender minors. … SCOTUS orders review over religious challenge to New York abortion law. The House will be back next week. The Senate will continue deliberations on Trump's 'big, beautiful bill.' Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., hopes to bring that package up for a vote sometime next week. But some Republicans are balking at the suggestion, arguing they need more time to hash out the details. As always, feel free to reach out to me by email with story ideas or questions you have for lawmakers. And follow me on X for breaking news and timely developments from the Hill.
Reuters
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Argentina ban on former president Kirchner reshapes political landscape
BUENOS AIRES, June 11 (Reuters) - Argentina's supreme court has effectively banned former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner from government, a move that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the opposition Peronist party ahead of crunch midterm elections this year. The court upheld a six-year jail term against Kirchner for graft on Tuesday, barring one of the country's most high-profile politicians from holding public office. In the short-term, the decision may enable libertarian President Javier Milei to cement his power base in the October midterm vote, but over the long run it could help revamp the Peronist movement, which was Argentina's most powerful political bloc for decades before being ousted by outsider Milei in 2023. Kirchner, a two-term president from 2007-2015 and a senator and vice president from 2019-2023, faces the possibility of jail time. She will likely be able to push for house arrest because of her age, 72, and the court will decide within five working days whether to grant that request. But she will not be able to run as a legislative candidate in the midterm elections in the province of Buenos Aires, a Peronist stronghold, as she had planned. Nonetheless, the leftist Kirchner, the president and one of the leaders of the Peronist party, may still be able to pull political strings given her strong popular support, especially if she remains out of jail. "Cristina will continue her political career; that's why she's choosing to stay in Buenos Aires, in her department of San José," a source close to the former president told Reuters. Kirchner did not respond to a Reuters interview request. Peronists are divided over whether her political ban will help the movement reinvent itself or if she will cast an even longer shadow than before, hurting up-and-comers like Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof who have clashed with her. "This is detrimental to the renewal, because she's now the martyred leader. She's the center of attention," said a source from Kicillof's Buenos Aires provincial government. Kirchner still enjoys significant popular support from close to 30% of the population, polls show, although she is highly divisive - in part due to the corruption cases against her - and would likely struggle to win election. Analysts said that the court ruling could ultimately allow for the party's modernization, at a time some of its leaders, like Kicillof, claim Peronism as a movement is being banished. "For Peronism, it represents the possibility of renewal. Kicillof is playing the victim and, at the same time, becoming independent," said political scientist Andrés Malamud. The ban against Kirchner will take some of the sting out of her bitter rivalry with Milei, but a new more moderate challenger from the Peronist left could hurt the Argentine president if he slips up. "If Milei can keep the economy steady, nothing will happen, but if this doesn't work, it will probably strengthen Kicillof," said analyst Mariel Fornoni from consultancy Management & Fit. The latest polls showed a tie in the important province of Buenos Aires between Milei's La Libertad Avanza and the Peronist opposition for the midterm elections, according to data from the Electoral Observatory. Victory would not give the ruling party a majority in either chamber of Argentina's Congress, but a larger number of legislators would make it easier for the government to approve privatizations of public companies and tax and labor reforms. "Cristina's conviction gives the government a campaign argument it didn't have. Now it won't need to discuss the economic model," said the Buenos Aires government source.
Wall Street Journal
07-06-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Trump Warns Musk of ‘Serious Consequences' if He Backs Democrats
BEDMINSTER, N.J.—President Trump warned former right-hand-man Elon Musk to stay out of the midterm elections, threatening 'very serious consequences' if he backed Democrats in the campaign. Musk, who crossed Trump by staunchly opposing his 'big, beautiful' tax-and-spending bill over deficit concerns, said last week that anyone who votes for this bill should be fired. Some Democrats have suggested that they try to win Musk over to their side, despite his being villainized by the party for his sweeping cuts to government staff. The billionaire spent about $300 million backing Trump and Republican candidates in the 2024 elections.
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The Independent
05-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Bill Clinton worries the ‘courts won't hold until the midterm election' in terms of checking Trump
Bill Clinton told The View on Thursday his biggest concern right now with the Trump administration is that 'the courts won't hold until we have the midterm elections' and this is something everyone 'should be worried about' regardless of their politics. Appearing on the daytime ABC talk show alongside novelist James Patterson to promote their upcoming thriller The First Gentleman, the 42nd president was first asked to weigh in on Donald Trump's first few months back in office. The former commander-in-chief, whose wife lost the 2016 presidential election to Trump, laid out a fairly dark vision of the current state of the country. 'I agree with you that we need to talk about the future and beyond President Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill,'' co-host Sunny Hostin noted. 'He is working to dismantle, in my view, our foundational institutions, right?' She continued: 'He's intimidating law firms and universities. He's stifling media. He's illegally disappearing people and deporting people. And he's now threatening to impeach judges. So are you confident that the courts will hold, and what concerns you most about what he's doing now?' Reacting to Hostin's question, which referenced the administration's complaints about a 'judicial coup' amid a spate of unfavorable court decisions over Trump's executive orders and policies, the former president wondered what would happen if the White House just outright defied the judicial branch. 'That the courts won't hold until we have the midterm elections,' he replied to the View host. 'Because they've made – the Supreme Court has made some good decisions which so far have been ignored.' Clinton then brought up the case surrounding Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland man who was wrongfully deported to El Salvador's notorious CECOT mega-prison despite a 2019 court order barring his deportation. The Supreme Court affirmed a ruling in April that the administration must 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's return to the United States, but he is yet to be sent back. The federal judge in the case ruled this week that Abrego Garcia's lawyers can seek sanctions against the government. 'They sent him away, then manufactured a picture that made it look like he had MS-13 on his hands, which he didn't, and the guy is still there in jail,' the former president declared. 'And so I'm worried about that. And you should be worried about that, whatever your politics.' Still, as Clinton expressed fear that the judicial branch may be eradicated within the next year, he did offer up a glimmer of hope that a Trump exit from the White House will eventually bring about strengthened checks and balances. 'I have a sinking suspicion if we – if our party wins the White House in the next election, there will be a hallelujah moment and the Supreme Court will rediscover the Constitution,' he said to applause. 'I'll be happy if that happens, because all of us should operate under guardrails,' Clinton concluded. 'The whole purpose of the Constitution was to repeal royal governments, unaccountable governments that no Democrat or Republican can be without accountability. That's what I think, so we'll see what happens. But I'm pretty upbeat about it.' With the White House increasingly attempting to undermine the courts and casting the federal judges as corrupt and impeachable, legal experts told The Independent that 'Trump could be on a path to contempt of court or his own impeachment,' but that 'nobody knows where a 'dangerous moment for democracy' is headed.' Additionally, the administration's relentless attacks on the courts for not rubber-stamping the president's agenda ignore 'the fact that Trump's unprecedented usage of executive actions could itself be responsible for his sky-high rate of failure in court,' The Independent's John Bowden notes. Clinton's fears about what the Trump administration will unleash in the coming months echo his warnings just ahead of last year's election. Campaigning for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris at the time, Clinton told CNN, 'What has surprised so many people – although I'm sure this happened in the '30s throughout Europe, when they were considering things with fascism – a lot of people just can't believe how many voters in America agree that he doesn't make sense, agree that he's advocating things that would be bad, but somehow think that if the experience was good for them back then, it was magically his doing and everything was fine.' He added, 'So, I don't know what's going to happen.'
Yahoo
31-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
With Riggs in place, NC Democrats launch Anita Earls' 2026 Supreme Court campaign
The midterm elections are well over a year away, but North Carolina Democrats have already begun one campaign in earnest. With national interest attuned to the courts as federal judges seek to limit President Donald Trump's unprecedented efforts to reshape government and North Carolina still reeling from a lengthy battle over the 2024 state Supreme Court election results, Justice Anita Earls kicked off her reelection campaign Friday with a sobering message: 'Our courts are the last hope as the guardians of our democracy — and that is no exaggeration,' Earls, a Democrat seeking her second term on the state's high court, told supporters at a fundraiser in Durham. The state Supreme Court has been front-and-center over the last six months as Republican candidate Jefferson Griffin unsuccessfully sought to overturn his 2024 loss to Democratic incumbent Allison Riggs. With Riggs's victory now safely certified, the party shifts its attention to defending Earls' seat — the first step in its long term plan to regain control of the powerful court in 2028. Republicans gained a 5-2 majority on the court after the 2022 midterms. Shortly after taking office, the new majority reversed previous rulings on gerrymandering and election law, upholding the Republican-controlled legislature's ability to draw maps that favor their own party and their push to require ID at the polls. 'They have wielded the courts in political power, and they have utilized the fact that they have extreme Republicans on these benches right now that are willing to bend the knee to do anything for the state legislature,' Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, told The News & Observer. Three Republican justices are up for reelection in 2028. If Democrats can defend Earls' seat in 2026, they'll only have to win two of those races to retake control of the court. The stakes are high in a state where most major legislation and electoral maps are challenged in court. Earls said voters need look no further than the Supreme Court's handling of the election dispute over one of its own seats to understand why a change is needed. When Griffin's case came before the high court, it dismissed his most sweeping challenge to the election results. However, all but one of the Republican justices agreed to allow a 30-day ballot review period for challenged military and overseas votes that could have resulted in thousands of votes being cancelled. A federal judge later reversed this ruling and ordered the state to certify Riggs as the winner of the election. 'Four members of my court were willing to throw out the legitimate ballots of voters who voted in accordance with the laws in effect at the time,' Earls told the N&O, 'And these include military people who serve our country at great sacrifice to themselves overseas.' Only one Republican has announced a campaign to challenge Earls so far: Rep. Sarah Stevens, a nine-term state lawmaker and attorney from Surry County. 'On the Supreme Court I will be a conservative voice for justice and families,' Stevens said last month in her campaign announcement. 'My experience as a family law attorney and a state legislator has prepared me to be a voice for those who cannot advocate for themselves.' At her event on Friday, Earls railed against Stevens' record in the legislature, noting she voted for electoral maps that a court later ruled were gerrymandered and supported efforts to spent millions on private school vouchers. 'She's a career politician and there are real choices that voters have to make in November of 2026,' Earls said. While Republicans may have to wait for a primary to rally around a candidate, the party is already pushing against Earls. 'Justice Earls is responsible for years of N.C. Supreme Court decisions in which Democrats pushed radical left-wing politics under the guise of dubious legal theories,' Matt Mercer, a spokesperson for the NC GOP said in a statement. 'The voters of North Carolina won't be fooled and will elect a new conservative Justice in 2026 who will follow the law.' Earls said she was proud of her record on the court, even if much of it has been served in the minority. As the only Black member of the Supreme Court, Earls said she was grateful to have 'been able to bring a measure of perspectives that helps ensure that our court is serving a broad base of the entire state.' While the Trump administration continues to target diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives nationwide, Earls has previously been outspoken about the need for diversity in the judicial system, prompting rebukes from Republicans and even an investigation. In 2023, Earls announced she was suing the Judicial Standards Commission, a body that handles ethics complaints against judges, after it threatened disciplinary action against her for critical comments she made about diversity in the state's judicial system. Earls later withdrew her lawsuit after the commission informed her it had dismissed the complaint. She said the specter of that investigation as well as Griffin's attempts to overturn the 2024 election add pressure to her campaign, but will not silence her. 'I will always endeavor to make sure that I speak in a way that never causes the courts to be called into disrepute,' Earls said Friday. 'But as a justice, I'm allowed to write dissents and I'm allowed to tell the public what those dissents say. '...I'm going to continue to make people aware of what matters to me and what my vision is of what our court system should provide for the people of the state. That seems, to me, fundamental to our democracy.' In the Spotlight designates ongoing topics of high interest that are driven by The News & Observer's focus on accountability reporting.
