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The Guardian
11 hours ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
We're on the brink of a disastrous, illegal conflagration in the Middle East. Trump must be stopped
Like the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, Israel's war on Iran is neither legal nor just. It is a war of choice, not of necessity – and should the US or its European allies, particularly Britain, join in, they risk being dragged into another disastrous and unlawful conflict in the Middle East. A US military intervention would be in direct contravention of international law. Already, the US, once the architect and guardian of the international order, is now among its chief violators. Instead of pressuring Benjamin Netanyahu to end his siege and destruction of Gaza, Donald Trump has fully sided with Netanyahu and called Israel's attacks on Iran 'excellent'. He has demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender'. Trump is considering military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Doing so is explicitly prohibited under article 56 of the additional protocol to the Geneva conventions because of the danger of nuclear contamination. Britain, meanwhile, must tread carefully. The attorney general has reportedly warned that any UK military involvement beyond defensive support would be illegal. Richard Hermer, the government's top legal adviser, is said to have raised internal concerns about the legality of joining a bombing campaign. The foundation of Israel's justification for launching pre-emptive strikes and of Washington's quiet complicity is alarming. The core claim is that Iran was rapidly taking steps to 'weaponise its uranium', with Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, repeatedly warning that Tehran is approaching a point of no return in developing a nuclear bomb. But Netanyahu's narrative flatly contradicts the US intelligence assessment, which found that not only is Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it remains at least three years away from having the capability to do so. The CIA disputes the Israeli claim that Iran is close to crossing a nuclear threshold. Trump's director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, had not authorised a nuclear programme, one that was in fact suspended in 2003. Even if Iran was making a bomb, international law doesn't give Israel and the US the right to bomb Iran. The UN charter is clear on the use of force in international relations. Yet, when pressed about this contradiction, Trump dismissed the intelligence outright. 'I don't care what she said,' he told reporters. 'I think they were very close to having it.' Netanyahu and Trump's narrative also stands in direct opposition to findings by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose director general, Rafael Grossi, confirmed on 17 June that there was 'no proof' Iran was systematically developing nuclear weapons. Set against this backdrop, US military intervention would rupture the rules-based international order further and make future conflicts more unpredictable and dangerous. Other powerful states could launch offensive wars under the pretext of pre-empting real or imagined threats to their national security. Today, it's Israel and the US. Tomorrow, China could use the same rationale to justify attacking Taiwan. The echoes of the Iraq war should also raise alarm bells. Then, as now, war was sold on manufactured intelligence. Netanyahu was a vocal supporter of the neoconservative movement that led the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq and justified it with claims about Saddam Hussein's possession of weapons of mass destruction and ties to terrorism. George W Bush sold that war with the now-infamous line about Hussein's 'massive stockpile' of biological weapons, despite the CIA stating it had 'no specific information' on quantities or types. Bush went further, claiming: 'We do not know whether or not [Iraq] has a nuclear weapon,' contradicting his own intelligence. He knew, and he lied. Trump, for his part, publicly criticised that very deception, saying Bush's decision to invade Iraq was 'the worst decision any president has made in the history of this country [the US]', adding: 'There were no weapons of mass destruction, and they knew there were none.' Yet Trump today appears to borrow a page from Bush's playbook. Although there is no plan for a US ground invasion of Iran, any attack on Tehran risks spiralling into a full-blown regional war. Iran has repeatedly threatened to retaliate against US bases in Iraq, Bahrain and the wider Gulf. A mission creep could easily escalate, triggering a cycle of strikes and counterstrikes. For example, Iran could mine the strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for global energy flows. The effects could reverberate globally, hitting energy markets and causing an inflationary cycle, weakening confidence in the US dollar, and potentially plunging the US economy into stagflation. Even the Houthis, with far fewer military capabilities than Iran, have managed to severely inflict damage and disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. If the US joins Israel's war, Iran could cripple global trade routes and send oil prices soaring. If the US joins Israel's war on Iran, it could backfire spectacularly, and potentially strengthen the regime rather than weakening it. One likely outcome is that the clerics will dash forward towards making a nuclear bomb, pointing to Israel's attack and attempt at regime change as justification. Meanwhile, in the UK, Keir Starmer would do well to remember the bitter legacy of Tony Blair, who led Britain into Iraq alongside the US. Fawaz Gerges is professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. His most recent book is The Great Betrayal: The Struggle for Freedom and Democracy in the Middle East
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Xi and Putin present united front over Israel-Iran crisis, in veiled message to Trump
China and Russia positioning themselves as voices of reason, calling for de-escalation of a conflict the United States is contemplating on entering — these are the optics Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin sought to project during a phone call on Thursday. As US President Donald Trump weighs joining Israel in attacking Iran, the fast-spiralling conflict between two sworn enemies in the Middle East has presented Beijing and Moscow another opportunity to cast themselves as an alternative to US power. In their call, Putin and Xi strongly condemned Israel's actions, calling them a breach of the UN Charter and other norms of international law, according to the Kremlin. (The elephant in the room, of course, is Russia's own violations of international law in its ongoing war against Ukraine — which Beijing has consistently refused to condemn.) In Beijing's readout, Xi struck a more measured tone and stopped short of explicitly condemning Israel — unlike his foreign minister, who did just that in a call with his Iranian counterpart last week. Instead, the Chinese leader urged the warring parties, 'especially Israel,' to cease fire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation and regional spillover. And notably, in a veiled message to Trump, Xi emphasized that 'major powers' that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict should work to 'cool the situation, not the opposite.' Beijing has long accused Washington of being a source of instability and tensions in the Middle East — and some Chinese scholars are now seizing on the Iran crisis to underscore that point. Liu Zhongmin, a Middle East expert at the Shanghai International Studies University, attributed the latest flareup to the uncertainty created by Trump's second presidency and the chaotic, opportunistic and transactional nature of his Middle East policy. '(Trump) has seriously undermined the authority and credibility of US policy in the Middle East, eroded America's leadership and image among its allies while also weakening its ability to threaten and deter regional adversaries,' Liu wrote in state media this week. Some Chinese online commentators have noted that Trump appears on the brink of pulling the US deeper into another so-called forever war in the Middle East. At the outset of his second term, officials close to Trump repeatedly stressed the need for Washington to redirect its focus and resources toward countering China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. Yet five months in, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to rage on — and Trump is now weighing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Beijing has no interest in seeing an all-out war against Iran that could topple the regime. Under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has emerged as a formidable power in the Middle East and a vital counterweight to US dominance — just as China is working to expand its own diplomatic and economic footprint in the region. In 2023, Beijing helped broker a surprise rapprochement between arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran – a deal that signaled its ambition to emerge as a new powerbroker in the region. China has long backed Iran through sustained oil imports and its seat on the UN Security Council. In recent years, the two countries have deepened their strategic ties, including holding joint naval exercises alongside Russia. Beijing welcomed Tehran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS – groupings led by China and Russia to challenge the US-led world order. Iran is also a critical node in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its global infrastructure and investment drive. The country lies near the strategic Gwadar port — a key BRI outpost in Pakistan that gives China access to the Indian Ocean — and borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for Chinese oil imports from the Persian Gulf. Like Russia, China has offered to be a potential mediator in the Israel-Iran conflict, casting its role as a peace broker and an alternative to US leadership. During his call with Putin, Xi laid out four broad proposals to de-escalate tensions, including resolving the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and safeguarding civilians, according to the Chinese readout. Meanwhile, Xi's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has had a busy week on the phone, speaking with his counterparts in Iran, Israel, Egypt and Oman in a flurry of diplomatic outreach. Yet it remains unclear what Beijing is willing and able to do when it comes to actually mediating the conflict. In the early stages of Israel's war on Gaza, China made a similar offer and dispatched a special envoy to the region to promote peace talks — efforts that ultimately yielded little in terms of concrete results. Brokering peace in the Middle East is a tall order, especially for a country with little experience or expertise in mediating protracted, intractable conflicts – in a deeply divided region where it lacks a meaningful political or security presence. And in the one conflict where China does hold significant leverage — the war in Ukraine — Xi has offered diplomatic cover and much-needed economic support to help sustain Putin's war effort, even as China continues to cast itself as a neutral peace broker. Still, at a time when America's global leadership is under growing scrutiny, particularly in the eyes of the Global South, presenting itself as a voice of restraint in the Iran conflict may already count as a symbolic win for Beijing.
CNN
15 hours ago
- Politics
- CNN
Xi and Putin present united front over Israel-Iran crisis, in veiled message to Trump
China and Russia positioning themselves as voices of reason, calling for de-escalation of a conflict the United States is contemplating on entering — these are the optics Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin sought to project during a phone call on Thursday. As US President Donald Trump weighs joining Israel in attacking Iran, the fast-spiralling conflict between two sworn enemies in the Middle East has presented Beijing and Moscow another opportunity to cast themselves as an alternative to US power. In their call, Putin and Xi strongly condemned Israel's actions, calling them a breach of the UN Charter and other norms of international law, according to the Kremlin. (The elephant in the room, of course, is Russia's own violations of international law in its ongoing war against Ukraine — which Beijing has consistently refused to condemn.) In Beijing's readout, Xi struck a more measured tone and stopped short of explicitly condemning Israel — unlike his foreign minister, who did just that in a call with his Iranian counterpart last week. Instead, the Chinese leader urged the warring parties, 'especially Israel,' to cease fire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation and regional spillover. And notably, in a veiled message to Trump, Xi emphasized that 'major powers' that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict should work to 'cool the situation, not the opposite.' Beijing has long accused Washington of being a source of instability and tensions in the Middle East — and some Chinese scholars are now seizing on the Iran crisis to underscore that point. Liu Zhongmin, a Middle East expert at the Shanghai International Studies University, attributed the latest flareup to the uncertainty created by Trump's second presidency and the chaotic, opportunistic and transactional nature of his Middle East policy. '(Trump) has seriously undermined the authority and credibility of US policy in the Middle East, eroded America's leadership and image among its allies while also weakening its ability to threaten and deter regional adversaries,' Liu wrote in state media this week. Some Chinese online commentators have noted that Trump appears on the brink of pulling the US deeper into another so-called forever war in the Middle East. At the outset of his second term, officials close to Trump repeatedly stressed the need for Washington to redirect its focus and resources toward countering China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. Yet five months in, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to rage on — and Trump is now weighing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Beijing has no interest in seeing an all-out war against Iran that could topple the regime. Under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has emerged as a formidable power in the Middle East and a vital counterweight to US dominance — just as China is working to expand its own diplomatic and economic footprint in the region. In 2023, Beijing helped broker a surprise rapprochement between arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran – a deal that signaled its ambition to emerge as a new powerbroker in the region. China has long backed Iran through sustained oil imports and its seat on the UN Security Council. In recent years, the two countries have deepened their strategic ties, including holding joint naval exercises alongside Russia. Beijing welcomed Tehran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS – groupings led by China and Russia to challenge the US-led world order. Iran is also a critical node in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its global infrastructure and investment drive. The country lies near the strategic Gwadar port — a key BRI outpost in Pakistan that gives China access to the Indian Ocean — and borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for Chinese oil imports from the Persian Gulf. Like Russia, China has offered to be a potential mediator in the Israel-Iran conflict, casting its role as a peace broker and an alternative to US leadership. During his call with Putin, Xi laid out four broad proposals to de-escalate tensions, including resolving the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and safeguarding civilians, according to the Chinese readout. Meanwhile, Xi's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has had a busy week on the phone, speaking with his counterparts in Iran, Israel, Egypt and Oman in a flurry of diplomatic outreach. Yet it remains unclear what Beijing is willing and able to do when it comes to actually mediating the conflict. In the early stages of Israel's war on Gaza, China made a similar offer and dispatched a special envoy to the region to promote peace talks — efforts that ultimately yielded little in terms of concrete results. Brokering peace in the Middle East is a tall order, especially for a country with little experience or expertise in mediating protracted, intractable conflicts – in a deeply divided region where it lacks a meaningful political or security presence. And in the one conflict where China does hold significant leverage — the war in Ukraine — Xi has offered diplomatic cover and much-needed economic support to help sustain Putin's war effort, even as China continues to cast itself as a neutral peace broker. Still, at a time when America's global leadership is under growing scrutiny, particularly in the eyes of the Global South, presenting itself as a voice of restraint in the Iran conflict may already count as a symbolic win for Beijing.
CNN
15 hours ago
- Politics
- CNN
Xi and Putin present united front over Israel-Iran crisis, in veiled message to Trump
China and Russia positioning themselves as voices of reason, calling for de-escalation of a conflict the United States is contemplating on entering — these are the optics Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin sought to project during a phone call on Thursday. As US President Donald Trump weighs joining Israel in attacking Iran, the fast-spiralling conflict between two sworn enemies in the Middle East has presented Beijing and Moscow another opportunity to cast themselves as an alternative to US power. In their call, Putin and Xi strongly condemned Israel's actions, calling them a breach of the UN Charter and other norms of international law, according to the Kremlin. (The elephant in the room, of course, is Russia's own violations of international law in its ongoing war against Ukraine — which Beijing has consistently refused to condemn.) In Beijing's readout, Xi struck a more measured tone and stopped short of explicitly condemning Israel — unlike his foreign minister, who did just that in a call with his Iranian counterpart last week. Instead, the Chinese leader urged the warring parties, 'especially Israel,' to cease fire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation and regional spillover. And notably, in a veiled message to Trump, Xi emphasized that 'major powers' that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict should work to 'cool the situation, not the opposite.' Beijing has long accused Washington of being a source of instability and tensions in the Middle East — and some Chinese scholars are now seizing on the Iran crisis to underscore that point. Liu Zhongmin, a Middle East expert at the Shanghai International Studies University, attributed the latest flareup to the uncertainty created by Trump's second presidency and the chaotic, opportunistic and transactional nature of his Middle East policy. '(Trump) has seriously undermined the authority and credibility of US policy in the Middle East, eroded America's leadership and image among its allies while also weakening its ability to threaten and deter regional adversaries,' Liu wrote in state media this week. Some Chinese online commentators have noted that Trump appears on the brink of pulling the US deeper into another so-called forever war in the Middle East. At the outset of his second term, officials close to Trump repeatedly stressed the need for Washington to redirect its focus and resources toward countering China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. Yet five months in, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to rage on — and Trump is now weighing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Beijing has no interest in seeing an all-out war against Iran that could topple the regime. Under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has emerged as a formidable power in the Middle East and a vital counterweight to US dominance — just as China is working to expand its own diplomatic and economic footprint in the region. In 2023, Beijing helped broker a surprise rapprochement between arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran – a deal that signaled its ambition to emerge as a new powerbroker in the region. China has long backed Iran through sustained oil imports and its seat on the UN Security Council. In recent years, the two countries have deepened their strategic ties, including holding joint naval exercises alongside Russia. Beijing welcomed Tehran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS – groupings led by China and Russia to challenge the US-led world order. Iran is also a critical node in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its global infrastructure and investment drive. The country lies near the strategic Gwadar port — a key BRI outpost in Pakistan that gives China access to the Indian Ocean — and borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for Chinese oil imports from the Persian Gulf. Like Russia, China has offered to be a potential mediator in the Israel-Iran conflict, casting its role as a peace broker and an alternative to US leadership. During his call with Putin, Xi laid out four broad proposals to de-escalate tensions, including resolving the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and safeguarding civilians, according to the Chinese readout. Meanwhile, Xi's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has had a busy week on the phone, speaking with his counterparts in Iran, Israel, Egypt and Oman in a flurry of diplomatic outreach. Yet it remains unclear what Beijing is willing and able to do when it comes to actually mediating the conflict. In the early stages of Israel's war on Gaza, China made a similar offer and dispatched a special envoy to the region to promote peace talks — efforts that ultimately yielded little in terms of concrete results. Brokering peace in the Middle East is a tall order, especially for a country with little experience or expertise in mediating protracted, intractable conflicts – in a deeply divided region where it lacks a meaningful political or security presence. And in the one conflict where China does hold significant leverage — the war in Ukraine — Xi has offered diplomatic cover and much-needed economic support to help sustain Putin's war effort, even as China continues to cast itself as a neutral peace broker. Still, at a time when America's global leadership is under growing scrutiny, particularly in the eyes of the Global South, presenting itself as a voice of restraint in the Iran conflict may already count as a symbolic win for Beijing.
CNN
16 hours ago
- Politics
- CNN
Xi and Putin present united front over Israel-Iran crisis, in veiled message to Trump
China and Russia positioning themselves as voices of reason, calling for de-escalation of a conflict the United States is contemplating on entering — these are the optics Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin sought to project during a phone call on Thursday. As US President Donald Trump weighs joining Israel in attacking Iran, the fast-spiralling conflict between two sworn enemies in the Middle East has presented Beijing and Moscow another opportunity to cast themselves as an alternative to US power. In their call, Putin and Xi strongly condemned Israel's actions, calling them a breach of the UN Charter and other norms of international law, according to the Kremlin. (The elephant in the room, of course, is Russia's own violations of international law in its ongoing war against Ukraine — which Beijing has consistently refused to condemn.) In Beijing's readout, Xi struck a more measured tone and stopped short of explicitly condemning Israel — unlike his foreign minister, who did just that in a call with his Iranian counterpart last week. Instead, the Chinese leader urged the warring parties, 'especially Israel,' to cease fire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation and regional spillover. And notably, in a veiled message to Trump, Xi emphasized that 'major powers' that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict should work to 'cool the situation, not the opposite.' Beijing has long accused Washington of being a source of instability and tensions in the Middle East — and some Chinese scholars are now seizing on the Iran crisis to underscore that point. Liu Zhongmin, a Middle East expert at the Shanghai International Studies University, attributed the latest flareup to the uncertainty created by Trump's second presidency and the chaotic, opportunistic and transactional nature of his Middle East policy. '(Trump) has seriously undermined the authority and credibility of US policy in the Middle East, eroded America's leadership and image among its allies while also weakening its ability to threaten and deter regional adversaries,' Liu wrote in state media this week. Some Chinese online commentators have noted that Trump appears on the brink of pulling the US deeper into another so-called forever war in the Middle East. At the outset of his second term, officials close to Trump repeatedly stressed the need for Washington to redirect its focus and resources toward countering China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. Yet five months in, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to rage on — and Trump is now weighing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Beijing has no interest in seeing an all-out war against Iran that could topple the regime. Under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has emerged as a formidable power in the Middle East and a vital counterweight to US dominance — just as China is working to expand its own diplomatic and economic footprint in the region. In 2023, Beijing helped broker a surprise rapprochement between arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran – a deal that signaled its ambition to emerge as a new powerbroker in the region. China has long backed Iran through sustained oil imports and its seat on the UN Security Council. In recent years, the two countries have deepened their strategic ties, including holding joint naval exercises alongside Russia. Beijing welcomed Tehran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS – groupings led by China and Russia to challenge the US-led world order. Iran is also a critical node in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its global infrastructure and investment drive. The country lies near the strategic Gwadar port — a key BRI outpost in Pakistan that gives China access to the Indian Ocean — and borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for Chinese oil imports from the Persian Gulf. Like Russia, China has offered to be a potential mediator in the Israel-Iran conflict, casting its role as a peace broker and an alternative to US leadership. During his call with Putin, Xi laid out four broad proposals to de-escalate tensions, including resolving the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and safeguarding civilians, according to the Chinese readout. Meanwhile, Xi's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has had a busy week on the phone, speaking with his counterparts in Iran, Israel, Egypt and Oman in a flurry of diplomatic outreach. Yet it remains unclear what Beijing is willing and able to do when it comes to actually mediating the conflict. In the early stages of Israel's war on Gaza, China made a similar offer and dispatched a special envoy to the region to promote peace talks — efforts that ultimately yielded little in terms of concrete results. Brokering peace in the Middle East is a tall order, especially for a country with little experience or expertise in mediating protracted, intractable conflicts – in a deeply divided region where it lacks a meaningful political or security presence. And in the one conflict where China does hold significant leverage — the war in Ukraine — Xi has offered diplomatic cover and much-needed economic support to help sustain Putin's war effort, even as China continues to cast itself as a neutral peace broker. Still, at a time when America's global leadership is under growing scrutiny, particularly in the eyes of the Global South, presenting itself as a voice of restraint in the Iran conflict may already count as a symbolic win for Beijing.
