Latest news with #interestRates
Reuters
39 minutes ago
- Business
- Reuters
Slow rate hikes could cause wage-price spiral, BOJ paper says
TOKYO, June 20 (Reuters) - Hiking interest rates only gradually as raw material costs rise could heighten the risk of an upward spiral in wages and consumer prices, the Bank of Japan said in a research paper released this week. The paper's publication on Thursday comes as the central bank faces an increasingly complicated policy environment, with inflation at a more than two-year high and U.S. tariffs fanning economic uncertainty. While the staff papers do not represent the BOJ's official view on monetary policy, they provide hints on key topics of attention within the central bank in setting interest rates. The BOJ staff paper, using data from 2002 to 2024, analysed trends in Japan and Europe - which both rely heavily on imported commodities - to study the extent to which rising material costs led to second-round effects on inflation. In Japan, the pass-through of prices from rising raw materials was more moderate than in Europe, the paper said. The second-round effects were moderate but sustained in both Japan and Europe, it said. "Both in Japan and Europe, the initial effects of high raw material costs were the main cause of inflationary trends since 2020. The second-round effects may have heightened the sustainability of price rises," the paper said. Central banks typically raise interest rates to avoid second-round effects on inflation, or a state in which initial price shocks like higher energy costs trigger a spiral of rising wages and inflation that could lead to a broad-based, persistent inflationary environment. A closer look at Japan's data suggested the BOJ's slow pace of interest rate hikes could be enhancing the second-round effects on inflation, the paper said. Structural changes in Japan's labour market could also be making wages less rigid - or more likely to move flexibly reflecting a tight job market - and enhancing the second-round effects on inflation than in the past, the paper said. The analysis comes amid heightening attention within the BOJ board on how persistent rises in food and raw material costs could affect underlying inflation, and households' perception of future price moves. While uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy has put the BOJ on hold in raising interest rates, Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled the bank's resolve to keep pushing up borrowing costs if Japan stays on course to durably hit the bank's 2% inflation target. Japan's core inflation hit a more than two-year high in May and exceeded the central bank's 2% target for well over three years, keeping it under pressure to resume rate hikes despite economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs.
CNA
an hour ago
- Business
- CNA
Slow rate hikes could cause wage-price spiral, BOJ paper says
TOKYO :Hiking interest rates only gradually as raw material costs rise could heighten the risk of an upward spiral in wages and consumer prices, the Bank of Japan said in a research paper released this week. The paper's publication on Thursday comes as the central bank faces an increasingly complicated policy environment, with inflation at a more than two-year high and U.S. tariffs fanning economic uncertainty. While the staff papers do not represent the BOJ's official view on monetary policy, they provide hints on key topics of attention within the central bank in setting interest rates. The BOJ staff paper, using data from 2002 to 2024, analysed trends in Japan and Europe - which both rely heavily on imported commodities - to study the extent to which rising material costs led to second-round effects on inflation. In Japan, the pass-through of prices from rising raw materials was more moderate than in Europe, the paper said. The second-round effects were moderate but sustained in both Japan and Europe, it said. "Both in Japan and Europe, the initial effects of high raw material costs were the main cause of inflationary trends since 2020. The second-round effects may have heightened the sustainability of price rises," the paper said. Central banks typically raise interest rates to avoid second-round effects on inflation, or a state in which initial price shocks like higher energy costs trigger a spiral of rising wages and inflation that could lead to a broad-based, persistent inflationary environment. A closer look at Japan's data suggested the BOJ's slow pace of interest rate hikes could be enhancing the second-round effects on inflation, the paper said. Structural changes in Japan's labour market could also be making wages less rigid - or more likely to move flexibly reflecting a tight job market - and enhancing the second-round effects on inflation than in the past, the paper said. The analysis comes amid heightening attention within the BOJ board on how persistent rises in food and raw material costs could affect underlying inflation, and households' perception of future price moves. While uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy has put the BOJ on hold in raising interest rates, Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled the bank's resolve to keep pushing up borrowing costs if Japan stays on course to durably hit the bank's 2 per cent inflation target. Japan's core inflation hit a more than two-year high in May and exceeded the central bank's 2 per cent target for well over three years, keeping it under pressure to resume rate hikes despite economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
HELOCs rise but home equity loans are steady as Fed leaves interest rates unchanged
The Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates for the fourth meeting in a row, and home equity loans were flat — but HELOCs bumped up a bit. The average rate on the $30,000 HELoan remained at 8.25 percent for the third straight week. Meanwhile, the average rate on a $30,000 home equity line of credit rose five basis points to 8.27 percent, according to Bankrate's national survey of lenders. While the central bank took a cautionary stance on inflation and the impact of President Trump's tariffs this time, it also signaled that two interest rate cuts could be in the cards by the end of 2025. Forecasts by the CME FedWatch tool predict the Fed lowering lower rates by a half point by year's end. 'That would likely push home equity loan and line of credit rates down by a similar amount,' says Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. 'There's a good chance rates will remain pretty flat through the summer and cuts could come into play more in the September to December timeframe.' Current 4 weeks ago One year ago 52-week average 52-week low HELOC 8.27% 8.20% 9.17% 8.58% 7.90% 5-year home equity loan 8.25% 8.23% 8.60% 8.42% 8.23% 10-year home equity loan 8.41% 8.38% 8.74% 8.55% 8.38% 15-year home equity loan 8.31% 8.32% 8.73% 8.49% 8.32% Keep your financial options open and put your equity to use with a flexible HELOC. Explore HELOC offers Rates on HELOCs and home equity loans are being driven primarily by two factors: lender competition for new customers and the Federal Reserve's actions. The Fed especially impacts the cost of variable-rate products like HELOCs. While they've ticked up lately, HELOCs and home equity loans have fallen substantially from the highs they hit at the beginning of 2024, with HELOC rates in particular reaching lows not seen since 2023. Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride forecasts that rates will continue to decline in 2025 — especially those on HELOCs, potentially to their lowest level in three years. Learn more: How the Federal Reserve affects HELOCs and home equity loans Because HELOCs and home equity loans use your home as collateral, their rates tend to be much less expensive — more akin to current mortgage rates — than the interest charged on credit cards or personal loans, which aren't secured. Average rate HELOC 8.27% Home equity loan 8.25% Credit card 20.12% Personal loan 12.65% Of course, the individualized offer you receive on a particular HELOC or new home equity loan reflects additional factors like your creditworthiness and financials. Then there's the value of your home and your ownership stake. Lenders generally limit all your home-based loans (including your mortgage) to a maximum 80 to 85 percent of your home's worth. Even if you are able to secure a good rate from a lender, home equity products are still relatively high-cost debt, notes Rossman. 'With average home equity loan and line of credit rates in the 8 percent range right now, that's close to the border of what distinguishes between lower- and higher-cost debt,' he says. 'It's not nearly as low as the sub-4 percent rates we saw three years ago, but not as high as the 10+ percent rates that we observed a year and a half ago.' Home equity trends Real estate is Americans' second-most popular long-term investment, according to Bankrate's 2025 Long-Term Investment Survey. 1.2 million homeowners with mortgages have negative equity in their homes (the outstanding loan balance totals more than their homes are worth), according to Cotality. Originations of home equity products (HELOCs, home equity loans and cash-out refinances) rose 11% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to TransUnion. U.S. mortgage-holders collectively possessed $11.5 trillion worth of tappable home equity in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor. Methodology The national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We've conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it's consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Australian
3 hours ago
- Business
- The Australian
Smaller banks offering lowest home loan interest rates after RBA rate cuts: canstar
Making one simple change could save tens of thousands of dollars, and that's even before making extra repayments or throwing money into an offset account. The average owner-occupier variable home loan rate is now at 5.8 per cent, comparison group Canstar estimates. So if you're on that rate or above, and especially if you're in the early years of a 30-year mortgage, it might be time to shop around for a better deal. To give you an idea of what you could be paying, the lowest variable offering currently in the market is 5.34 per cent. For first home buyers it's even lower at 5.24 per cent. Who's offering the best rates? Smaller banks and non-bank lenders are offering the most competitive rates. Non-bank lender Pacific Mortgage Group is leading the pack with its 5.34 per cent variable loan but there are plenty of others sitting just slightly higher, per the table below. Again, keep in mind that Horizon's offering is only for first-home buyers. All up, eight lenders are currently offering rates of 5.39 per cent, including People's Choice, RACQ Bank and Australian Mutual, while a handful more have rates as low as 5.44 per cent. All up, 34 lenders now offer at least one variable rate under 5.5 per cent, according to Sally Tindall, head of research at Canstar. 'If your rate's above 5.8 per cent, alarm bells should be ringing. That's just the average, it's not even competitive,' she says. If you're keen to stick with the big four banks, CBA, Westpac and ANZ are currently offering variable rates of 5.59 per cent, while NAB is the outlier at 5.94 per cent. These are the advertised rates but there's often wriggle room for the bank to do a better deal if, for example, your loan-to-value ratio is particularly low. For those looking at fixed rates, there's a handful offering just under 5 per cent. But the cash rate is widely expected to fall further in the near term, meaning variable rates will continue to drop. Refinancing options Do-it-yourself refinancing, that's dealing with the bank yourself rather than through a broker, can be a bit of a pain and time consuming but it can also pay off. Your broker isn't always going to tell you the absolute lowest rates on the market, only the ones they can get for you. But if you've got a broker who can get you a competitive rate, it means they do all the legwork and you don't have to spend hours calling up each lender to get the best deal. Keep in mind, broker or not, switching lenders comes with fresh credit checks and invasive financial questions, as well as refinance fees that can range from $500 to $2000. There's also the risk that you refinance and the Reserve Bank cuts rates but your new lender doesn't pass the cuts on. We may not see this in the current cycle, especially since Treasurer Jim Chalmers was straight onto the banks in February ordering them to pass the RBA cut on, but it's a risk to be aware of. If you can't get a lender to give you a rate near the lowest in the market (5.34 per cent), getting it down from say, 6 to 5.5 per cent, will still mean a big saving. But there are traps to watch for, including the impact of stretching out your loan term back to 30 years. Crunching the numbers for The Australian, Canstar has come up with a couple of scenarios that illustrate the point. A borrower with a $600,000 home loan and 25 years left on their mortgage who refinances to 5.5 per cent and keeps their current loan term will potentially save almost $52,000 in interest. But if that same borrower extended the loan term back out from 25 to 30 years, their monthly repayments would drop by $459 but over the life of the loan they'd actually end up paying $55,000 more than if they'd done nothing at all. Canstar's scenario assumes there's two more RBA rate cuts (which we expect this year), bringing the cash rate to a neutral 3.35 per cent. It also assumes the banks pass on these cuts. No frills, digital only Other offerings in the market to look at are the no-frills, digital-only products like CBA's digi home loan and digital bank Up, which is backed by Bendigo Bank. CBA's digi home loan rate for owner-occupiers is at 5.59 per cent while its offering for investors is a competitive 5.69 per cent. Unloan, another digital-only offering backed by CBA is even lower, at 5.49 per cent. Like other lenders, CBA has seen a pick-up in customers looking to refinance since the RBA kicked off its rate-cutting cycle in February, according to its executive general manager for home buying, Dr Michael Baumann. 'It's a good trigger for customers to look at the interest rate they're paying and figure out whether they're on a good deal,' Baunmann says. The bank has seen a doubling of applications on the digital home loan product in the past year. And in a sign of an increasingly competitive market, CBA recently slashed its rates more than the RBA's 0.25 per cent May rate cut. Over the past six weeks the rate for owner occupiers has come down 31 basis points, while for investors it's down 43 basis points. With market watchers tipping two more RBA rate cuts in the next few months, if you get your lender down to a rate of 5.49 or less before the next cut you could be looking at a rate that starts with a 4 within a few months. Business The latest surge in Bitcoin, along with big players making investments in the sector, is retesting interest in the mysterious asset class. But is it for you? Business From July 1 the way the ATO enforces unpaid debts is changing. For some, it means their interest bill is poised to double.
Free Malaysia Today
4 hours ago
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Euro zone bond yields nudge up following Fed decision
The Swiss central bank is expected to cut its policy rate to zero from 0.25% today. (EPA Images pic) BRUSSELS : Euro zone yields were slightly higher today after the US Federal Reserve held rates steady the day before, with investors still nervously watching developments in the Middle East. The US central bank kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected yesterday, with chair Jerome Powell saying he expected to see more tariff-driven price hikes in the coming months. Meanwhile, financial markets were on edge over the possible entry of the US into the week-old Israel-Iran air war, ahead of central bank policy decisions in Switzerland, Norway and the UK later in the day. Germany's 10-year bond yield was up 2.4 basis points on the day at 2.52%, retracing some of the previous day's fall, but still trading within its recent range. The yield on the two-year Schatz was up 1 bp at 1.856%. The Swiss central bank is expected to cut its policy rate to zero from 0.25% today, but with a strong chance that rates return to negative territory at some point this year. Markets anticipate the Norges Bank and the Bank of England will leave their respective rates unchanged, and investor focus will be on their policy outlooks for the rest of the year. Italy's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone periphery, was 4 bps higher at 3.526%, leaving the gap between Italian and German yields wider at 99.50.
