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Forbes
12 hours ago
- Sport
- Forbes
The Improbability Of Canada's Stanley Cup Drought
The Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers for the second straight year in a row to capture the Stanley Cup on June 17. This marks the sixth Stanley Cup final in a row featuring a hockey team from the Sunshine State. It has been an incredible stretch of hockey at the highest levels for both the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning. On the other side of the emotional spectrum, Canadians are once again left waiting to bring the Cup back to the birthplace of ice hockey. There was a sense that this might finally be the year Canada broke its long, frustrating drought. Hopes were high going into this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, as five of seven Canadian NHL teams qualified for the postseason. The last time a Canadian team won the cup was in 1993 when the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Los Angeles Kings. That was also the debut season for the Tampa Bay Lightning and came just one year before the Florida Panthers joined the league. In the time since, teams from Florida have hoisted the Cup five times. For Canadian hockey fans, this is not just another painful moment, it is a gut punch laced with irony. The notion that teams from sun-soaked Florida could be celebrating year after year while Canada remains empty-handed feels almost cruel. And yet, as improbable as it seems, this run of southern dominance is very real. This is where probability theory can offer a new perspective. What are the odds that Canada could go over three decades without a Stanley Cup? How likely is it that two relatively young franchises from a non-traditional hockey market could have this much success? And perhaps most importantly: when, statistically speaking, might Canadian fans finally get to celebrate again? To put a number to Canada's hockey heartbreak, I built a Bayesian model. This is a statistical approach that is designed to capture long-term trends while staying grounded in a fair and interpretable framework. At its core, a Bayesian approach is a way of updating a belief state in light of new evidence. It starts with a prior belief which is an initial estimate of how likely something is to happen. As new data comes in, that belief is updated to form a posterior belief, which becomes a more refined, data-informed estimate. The model begins with a neutral prior belief known as a Beta(1, 1) distribution, which assumes no preconceived belief about whether Canadian teams are more or less likely to win the Stanley Cup in a given season. This assumption that replicates the extreme uncertainty inherent in sports. From there, each season after the NHL-WHL merger becomes a data point. The model looks at whether a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup. If one of them did, that year adds a 'success' to the tally. If not, it's another 'miss.' With each new season, the model refines its estimate of how likely it is that a Canadian team will win in a given year. The beauty of the Bayesian approach is that it balances the weight of history with the possibility of change. What emerges is a dynamic, evolving probability. It is a quantifiable value that captures just how long the Cup has stayed away from Canada, and how likely it is to come home anytime soon. Between 1980 and 1993, Canadian teams were a dominant force in the NHL, capturing eight Stanley Cups in just 14 seasons. The Edmonton Oilers led the charge with five titles during their dynasty years, followed by the Montreal Canadiens with two, and the Calgary Flames with one. At the time, it felt like the Cup belonged to Canada. Heading into the 1993–1994 season and fresh off the Canadiens' most recent Cup win, the Bayesian model, would have estimated about a 60% chance that a team from Canada would win the Cup that year. But as the seasons passed and the Cup stayed south of the border, that probability began to fall. Over time, it gradually leveled off around 20%, aligning closely with what you would expect if every NHL team had an equal shot in a 32-team league. Using this model, the probability that no Canadian team has won a Stanley Cup since 1993 is 0.0000037 or roughly 1 in 300,000. That is roughly the same odds as flipping a fair coin and getting heads 18 times in a row. In a sport defined by randomness and parity, this kind of losing streak is not just heartbreaking. It is statistically absurd. The same Bayesian model that tracks Canada's teams' annual probability to win the Stanley Cup can be used to predict when a Canadian NHL team will win again. In simple terms, the expected wait time is just the inverse of the annual win probability. After updating the model following the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, the estimated probability that a Canadian team wins in any given season is 19%. Flip that number, and the math tells us something hopeful, if not immediate: on average, we can expect a Canadian team to bring home the Cup in about 5.2 years. Of course, this is just an average. Canada could win as soon as next season, or the drought could drag on longer. Canada's Stanley Cup drought is more than just a sporting oddity. It is a statistical anomaly that defies expectation. For a country that lives and breathes hockey, the fact that no Canadian team has lifted the Cup since 1993 feels more like a cosmic joke than a cold streak. The numbers suggest that Canada's fortunes will eventually turn. And when a Canadian captain finally hoists the Cup again, it will not just be a victory for one team. Rather, it will feel like the end of a national exile, long overdue and deeply earned.
National Post
2 days ago
- Sport
- National Post
Edmonton Oilers already picked as early Stanley Cup favourites in 2026
Cue the doom and gloom. Article content The Edmonton Oilers lost in the Stanley Cup Final. Article content Again. Article content Again. Article content And somehow, this time seems even worse than the last time around, when they bounced back from a 3-0 series deficit to force Game 7, only to end up losing by the slimmest of margins, 2-1, in their first trip back to the championship round in 18 years. Article content This time, well, it's still too soon to talk about, really. What is there to say when your team didn't bother to show up for the most important game of the season? And the one before that, while we're at it. Article content Article content A 5-2 loss in Game 5 followed by a 5-1 loss in Game 6 to bump them in their first and last elimination scenario of these playoffs saw the Oilers go quietly into the night, making for another long flight home to a city whose heart was broken once again as the 35-year Stanley Cup drought continues. But hang on. Article content Don't be so quick to abandon all hope just yet. Article content While the dust has yet to settle on another unsuccessful Stanley Cup Final, maybe don't scrap that map with the planned parade route through the heart of Alberta's capital entirely. Out of the darkness, a faint beacon can be seen, as the oddsmakers at already picked the Oilers as the early favourite to be the last team standing in 2025-26. Article content That's right. They're expected to not only go on another long run all the way back to what would be their third consecutive Cup final appearance, but to finally get over the hump and win it all next year. Article content You thought they were hungry this season? Just wait and see the team that shows up champing at the bit in the starting gates in October. Article content And if you're playing these odds, chances are the Oilers don't even have to do anything to get better for next season. They just have to stand pat and stay the course while Florida and the rest of the field gets worse. Article content 2026 Stanley Cup champion odds Article content Edmonton Oilers 6/1 Florida Panthers 13/2 (+650) Carolina Hurricanes 15/2 (+750) Dallas Stars 9/1 Colorado Avalanche 10/1 Vegas Golden Knights 12/1 Tampa Bay Lightning 16/1 Los Angeles Kings 20/1 New Jersey Devils 20/1 Toronto Maple Leafs 20/1 Winnipeg Jets 22/1 Ottawa Senators 25/1 Washington Capitals 28/1 Minnesota Wild 33/1 New York Rangers 33/1 Utah Mammoth 40/1 St. Louis Blues 45/1 New York Islanders 50/1 Vancouver Canucks 50/1 Montreal Canadiens 60/1 Nashville Predators 66/1 Columbus Blue Jackets 75/1 Detroit Red Wings 75/1 Boston Bruins 80/1 Calgary Flames 80/1 Philadelphia Flyers 80/1 Anaheim Ducks 100/1 Buffalo Sabres 100/1 Pittsburgh Penguins 100/1 Seattle Kraken 200/1 Chicago Blackhawks 300/1 San Jose Sharks 500/1
National Post
3 days ago
- Sport
- National Post
Oilers in must-win mode tonight as Panthers aim to claim Stanley Cup at home
Hockey fans in Sunrise are preparing for a trophy-hoisting party inside Amerant Bank Arena tonight as the Florida Panthers aim to wrap up the Stanley Cup final series against the Edmonton Oilers. Article content The defending champion Panthers grabbed a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven championship after whipping the Oilers 5-2 on Saturday in Edmonton. Article content Three of the first four games were decided in overtime, but the Panthers crushed the Oilers 6-1 in Game 3 in Sunrise. Article content Article content Article content The Panthers, who beat the Oilers in seven games last year to win their first Stanley Cup, are looking to become just the third team to go back-to-back since the NHL's salary cap era began in 2005. Article content History and oddsmakers are not favouring the Oilers to bounce back. Only eight of the 44 teams to fall behind 3-2 in the final have gone on to win. Boston was the last to do it in 2011 against Vancouver, extending Canada's Cup drought that goes back to 1993. Article content Edmonton will need a much better start to make sure hockey's holy grail gets put back in its case and loaded onto a plane for a potential Game 7 in the Alberta capital on Friday. Article content Article content
BBC News
4 days ago
- Sport
- BBC News
Can Canada break its Stanley Cup curse?
The Edmonton Oilers are heading south to Miami to fight to bring the Stanley Cup back to Canada for the first time since 1993. They will be hoping to avoid a repeat of last year when they made the same trip and over 30 years, the winner of the National Hockey League's top prize has gone to an American team. It's a sorry legacy for a country where ice hockey is not just a sport, but part of the national identity. About 40% of players in the NHL, across all teams, are Canadian - more than any other year, the Oilers flopped during the final game of the seven-game series against the Florida was a "heartbreaking" loss for Carson Duggan, who grew up in rural Alberta and now lives in the US. She had travelled all the way to Miami to watch that final game, where she says she was joined by thousands of other Canadians. It's a sore point for many Canadians that the league's most die-hard fans have gone so long without a trophy, and yet remain willing to spend big money and travel big distances to support their Edmonton has a second chance at breaking the losing streak this year, but heading into Game 6, there are concerns that history could indeed repeat itself. While the Oilers began the series strong, winning the first game 4-3, the Panthers demolished Edmonton 5-2 on Saturday, giving them a 3-2 series game, in Miami, will be do-or-die. The repeated losses have, in a way, united Canadians against a common enemy – the US. Although there are seven Canadian teams in the NHL for Canadian fans to cheer for, when it comes to the playoffs most get behind whichever Canadian team goes the farthest. Thus, in this year's final series, the Edmonton Oilers have been christened, by elimination, Canada's team."I think it's just like, we need a cup as Canada," Ms Duggan said. "A lot of Canada is cheering for Edmonton."This is especially true because of tensions between Canada and the US, which have heightened amidst a testy trade international rivalry really came to a head during the winter's 4 Nations Face Off, when Trump was repeatedly making digs at Canada by calling it the "51st state". Canadians booed the American national anthem during the game, and three fights broke out on the ice during the first nine seconds of one game. Shortly after Canada won the 4Nations, Canadian comedian Mike Meyers appropriated the hockey term "elbows up" as a rallying cry for Canadian sovereignty. The slogan was adopted by Prime Minister Mark Carney (whose hometeam is Edmonton) during his election US President Donald Trump has personally called the Panthers, who play about an hour away from his estate Mar-A-Lago, to offer his between the two countries have seemed to cool a bit, Ms Duggan said. But that doesn't mean that a Canadian win wouldn't be a "cherry on top"."We're not going to be bullied," she said, adding that she thinks "most Canadians know that most Americans are good people". Every Canadian has their own hypothesis as to why Canadian teams have not won the Cup since 1993, from the mundane to the downright starters, under the eye of NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, American franchises have vastly overtaken the league, with seven out of eight new teams since 1993 going to sunshine states like Nevada, Florida and most recently, Utah. Now there are just seven Canadian teams compared to America's point to the mild temperatures and lucrative tax breaks in many US states as a draw for free Duggan likes to think it's at least partly because of ice hockey's uniquely egalitarian gameplay - players are only on the ice for 45 seconds at a time, typically, which means that even a star player, like the Oiler's captain Connor McDavid, can't monopolise the rink. The 28-year-old, whose been compared to Hall of Famer Wayne Gretzky, has been playing with the team since he was first draft pick in the NHL during the 2015-2016 season. While it's taken the Oilers years to get to the level that they're playing at now, even then it was clear he would be a star."If he was drafted to Boston or Chicago or Philly or Rangers, or really any team in the United States, I think hockey would have grown exponentially," Ms Duggan said. "You could know absolutely nothing about hockey and watch five minutes and see [he's] the best player."Now living in New Hampshire, after moving to the US to play university-level ice hockey and coach, Ms Duggan - whose great-grandfather was a mayor of Edmonton - said the Oilers are still her home team."I think that was a piece of home that was always there," she said. "They've probably taken years off my life, because some of their puck drops are at like, 10pm, and I stay up and watch every single game."
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
NHL fan goes viral for Oilers-Panthers jersey change during Stanley Cup Final Game 5
The post NHL fan goes viral for Oilers-Panthers jersey change during Stanley Cup Final Game 5 appeared first on ClutchPoints. The Florida Panthers took a massive step towards winning the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, as they picked up a 5-2 victory over the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 on Saturday night. And in the process, it looks like they may have gained a new fan. With the win in the bag for the Panthers, a fan at Rogers Place went viral for switching his rooting allegiance in front of the entire world. Advertisement From the start of the game, Florida controlled the proceedings in Game 5, as they quickly raced out to a 2-0 lead by the end of the first period. They didn't look back from there, and while Edmonton hung around late in this one, they ultimately weren't able to replicate their stunning rally from Game 4. As a result, a frustrated Oilers fan was caught on live television taking off his team's jersey, only to have a Panthers jersey on underneath it. Panthers looking to wrap up Stanley Cup Final vs. Oilers in Game 6 Mandatory Credit: Walter Tychnowicz-Imagn Images This isn't the first time we've seen a fan do this, but to do it at Edmonton's home arena in the wake of a crushing result is pretty gutsy. At the end of the day, though, the Oilers and their fans won't pay much attention to this move, as they will instead have to turn their focus to a do-or-die Game 6 contest, as they will be looking to force a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row. Advertisement With their fanbase turning on them, though, it remains to be seen if Edmonton has enough juice left in them to extend their season (although it's worth noting this game will be played in Florida at Amerant Bank Arena). The Panthers, on the other hand, will be looking to wrap things up in front of their home crowd for the second year in a row. Puck drop is currently scheduled for Tuesday, June 17 at 8 p.m. ET. Related: NHL's Wayne Gretzky recounts unreal story how he got 'Great One' nickname. Related: 3 best destinations for Stars' Jason Robertson amid growing trade buzz
