Latest news with #grainfutures
Zawya
09-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Funds' bearish sentiment on US grains and oilseeds hits nine-month high: Braun
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.) NAPERVILLE, Illinois - Speculators dug deeper into bear territory last week across U.S. grain and oilseed futures, and with this time of year known to feature plenty of uncertainties, investors must keep their eyes glued on upcoming weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt. In the week ended June 3, money managers' combined net short position across U.S. grain and oilseed futures and options surpassed 400,000 contracts, up more than 90,000 on the week. That marks their most bearish collective position since early September and their most bearish open to June in eight years. Just four months ago, the combined net long topped out at 300,000 contracts. Last week's move was driven by heavier selling in corn, soybeans and soybean oil. Money managers maintained bullish CBOT soybean oil bets through the week ended June 3, but they slashed their net long futures and options contracts by 22,000 to 31,990 contracts due to negative sentiment on the U.S. biofuels front. Money managers nearly erased bullish bets in CBOT soybean futures and options, reducing their net long to 8,601 contracts from 36,697 a week earlier. Funds' bearish soymeal position remained near-record large as prices have traded sideways over the last several weeks, and they also maintained sizable net shorts across the wheat flavors. CORN FOCUS Last week's net selling in corn was primarily driven by a large wave of new gross short positions, a trend that has been present in six of the last seven weeks. As of June 3, money managers' net short in CBOT corn futures and options hit a nine-month high of 154,043 contracts, up from 100,760 a week earlier. Recent heavy speculative selling in corn comes against the backdrop of a wildly strong U.S. export program and similarly robust U.S. ethanol grind. These factors have pared 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stock predictions significantly over the last year. However, the futures market does not seem to be reflecting a terribly tight situation. Late last week, CBOT July corn opened up a discount to December corn, not suggestive of imminent concern over supplies. Funds' building bearishness in corn as well as the newly established market carry could be hinting at the expectation that last year's U.S. corn crop was larger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated. The agency's June 30 stocks report could potentially validate this notion. But in the meantime, traders will need to be watching the U.S. weather forecasts, which as of Friday suggested a potential dry spell for the western Corn Belt over the next two weeks. Heat risks were relatively low, though corn and soybean crop conditions are sitting at just average levels. In the week ahead, the market will be anticipating USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday, and traders expect a further contraction in old-crop U.S. corn supply. All eyes will turn toward London on Monday, where top U.S. and Chinese officials will hold talks aimed at resolving trade disputes. Pending the outcome, this could have markets starting off the week with a bang. But whether that trajectory is higher or lower is anyone's guess. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Writing by Karen Braun; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)
Reuters
08-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Funds' bearish sentiment on US grains and oilseeds hits nine-month high
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 8 (Reuters) - Speculators dug deeper into bear territory last week across U.S. grain and oilseed futures, and with this time of year known to feature plenty of uncertainties, investors must keep their eyes glued on upcoming weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt. In the week ended June 3, money managers' combined net short position across U.S. grain and oilseed futures and options surpassed 400,000 contracts, up more than 90,000 on the week. That marks their most bearish collective position since early September and their most bearish open to June in eight years. Just four months ago, the combined net long topped out at 300,000 contracts. Last week's move was driven by heavier selling in corn, soybeans and soybean oil. Money managers maintained bullish CBOT soybean oil bets through the week ended June 3, but they slashed their net long futures and options contracts by 22,000 to 31,990 contracts due to negative sentiment on the U.S. biofuels front. Money managers nearly erased bullish bets in CBOT soybean futures and options, reducing their net long to 8,601 contracts from 36,697 a week earlier. Funds' bearish soymeal position remained near-record large as prices have traded sideways over the last several weeks, and they also maintained sizable net shorts across the wheat flavors. Last week's net selling in corn was primarily driven by a large wave of new gross short positions, a trend that has been present in six of the last seven weeks. As of June 3, money managers' net short in CBOT corn futures and options hit a nine-month high of 154,043 contracts, up from 100,760 a week earlier. Recent heavy speculative selling in corn comes against the backdrop of a wildly strong U.S. export program and similarly robust U.S. ethanol grind. These factors have pared 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stock predictions significantly over the last year. However, the futures market does not seem to be reflecting a terribly tight situation. Late last week, CBOT July corn opened up a discount to December corn , not suggestive of imminent concern over supplies. Funds' building bearishness in corn as well as the newly established market carry could be hinting at the expectation that last year's U.S. corn crop was larger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated. The agency's June 30 stocks report could potentially validate this notion. But in the meantime, traders will need to be watching the U.S. weather forecasts, which as of Friday suggested a potential dry spell for the western Corn Belt over the next two weeks. Heat risks were relatively low, though corn and soybean crop conditions are sitting at just average levels. In the week ahead, the market will be anticipating USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday, and traders expect a further contraction in old-crop U.S. corn supply. All eyes will turn toward London on Monday, where top U.S. and Chinese officials will hold talks aimed at resolving trade disputes. Pending the outcome, this could have markets starting off the week with a bang. But whether that trajectory is higher or lower is anyone's guess. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Globe and Mail
19-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
What 3 Key ‘Outside' Commodity Markets Are Telling Us About Grains Prices This Week
Grain futures market prices are impacted daily and on a longer-term basis by how a select number of other important commodity markets are behaving. Let's look at three key 'outside markets,' their present price postures, and how they relate to corn (ZCN25), soybean (ZSN25), wheat (ZWN25) (KEN25), and oats (ZON25) futures. U.S. Dollar Index Bulls Working on a Price Uptrend The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) (DXM25) is a basket of six major global currencies weighted against the greenback. It's an important market for grain traders because most grain traded on world markets is priced in U.S. dollars. The USDX had been trending down from January to late April. That meant U.S. grains were less expensive to purchase on the world markets, in non-U.S. currency. However, present near-term chart posture for the USDX has turned bearish for grains. The USDX is presently in a price uptrend on the daily chart and prices last week hit a four-week high. If the USDX continues to trend higher, the upside potential for grain futures markets may be limited. Resumed and sustained USDX weakness would be bullish for grains. Crude Oil Trading Likely to Turn Choppier and More Sideways June Nymex crude oil futures (CLM25) made a good rebound from the early May low but late last week sputtered after the International Energy Agency lowered its global crude oil demand growth forecast. The lower outlook is due to broad economic uncertainty amid a global tariff war led by the U.S. and China. Also, the U.S. and Iran have been in talks to ease their tensions. The U.S. says Iran must stop its progress toward making a nuclear bomb or suffer dire consequences. The U.S., in turn, would lift economic sanctions on Iran, including its crude oil exports. It appears Iran is heeding the U.S. threat and wants to talk more about the matter. Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil would put significantly more crude oil on the world market. The factors mentioned above suggest less demand and more supply, which is price-bearish for crude oil. It's likely that Nymex and Brent crude oil futures prices will trade only sideways at best in the coming weeks or few months, barring a breakthrough on better global trade relations, which cannot be ruled out. Crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector and if crude can't sustain a price uptrend, then other raw commodity markets, including the grains, are also much less likely to do so. Conversely, uptrending crude oil prices would be a significantly bullish element for the grains as well as other commodities. Such could indeed occur in the coming weeks if the U.S. and its major trading counterparts, namely China, continue significantly easing trade tensions. U.S. Stock Indexes Are Rallying and That's Limiting Selling Interest in Grains The major U.S. stock indexes last week hit 2.5-month highs and are trending up. That strongly suggests better trader and investor risk appetite in the general marketplace and that's bullish for commodity markets, including the grains. If the U.S. stock indexes continue to trend higher, then speculative grain market bulls will be more compelled to play the long sides in grain futures. Significant selling pressure in the U.S. stock market would re-energize the grain market bears. My Bias on the Key Outside Markets Is Grain-Markets Bullish If U.S.-China trade relations continue to improve, and I believe they will, that would be stock-market bullish, USDX bullish and crude oil bullish. Trader and investor risk appetite would continue to improve. Given the turmoil in global markets leading up to the recent thawing in U.S.-China trade relations, it sure seems U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will want to keep the ball rolling on better trade relations. So, two of the three outside markets for grains would be bullish (higher oil and higher U.S. stock indexes), while one would be bearish (higher USDX). In such a scenario, I believe the outcome would be significantly more bullish for grains market futures than bearish.
