Latest news with #globalwarming
Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Climate
- Bloomberg
Climate Change Increases Intensity of Heat Wave Scorching UK
Climate change is likely intensifying the heat wave scorching the UK, increasing temperatures by as much as 4C (7.2F), according to new research. High pressure over the UK, along with a stream of air that is rapidly warming as it descends from over Greenland, will bring highs of 33C to London on Saturday, with 34C for parts of eastern England, Met Office forecasts show.
CBC
5 hours ago
- Science
- CBC
After the puzzling warmth of Earth in 2023 and 2024, what could 2025 have in store?
After 12 consecutive months with temperatures 1.5 C above the 1850-1900 average, Earth's temperature has now fallen — thanks in part to the end of a natural cycle. According to Berkeley Earth, a non-profit climate analysis organization, the global average temperature was 1.33 C above the pre-industrial average in the month of May, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) found that the monthly average was 1.40 C above the pre-industrial average. (Climate agencies around the world use different methods to analyze global temperatures, hence the difference). While that may seem like good news, the fact is that 2025 is still on track to be one of the top three warmest years on record, according to Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth. "With El Niño being firmly over, it is very unlikely at this point that 2025 is going to set a new record, but I still think it's the odds-on favourite to be the second-warmest on record, and it is virtually certain to be a top three warmest year," Hausfather said. El Niño, a natural, cyclical warming in a region of the Pacific Ocean that, coupled with the atmosphere, can cause global temperatures to rise, began in the middle of 2023 and then peaked in 2024, which could account for some of the record warmth that puzzled climate scientists. What was particularly interesting about the month of May is that land surface temperatures dropped quite a bit compared to the months prior. However, it was still the second warmest on record, after 2024. Hausfather said the sharp drop could have been some "internal variability" that had kept the land surface temperatures elevated and that perhaps last month was a result of the end of that variability. An important thing to also keep in mind when it comes to what we can expect in terms of 2025 making the record books, winter is when we see the greatest temperature anomalies, Hausfather said. So that could push 2025 even higher than what we're seeing now. On the road to warming trend of 1.5 C Ocean temperatures have decreased in part due the end of El Niño, but remain near record highs. In May, the average ocean temperatures were 0.99 C above the 1850-1900 average, according to Berkeley Earth. "At the moment, we are seeing, or we have just seen, a significant ocean heat wave in the North Atlantic," said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). "[Ocean temperatures are] cooler than last year and the previous one, but it's warmer than any other years we have in the record. So this is one of these things where it depends [whether] we like to see the glass half full or half empty. It's still a very warm ocean." Though Earth did hit a 12-month average of 1.5 C, that doesn't necessarily mean failure on the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below a threshold of 1.5 C. That would have to happen over a longer period, though there is no set timeframe set out in the agreement. Climate is looked at over long periods, typically spanning 20 or 30 years. Carbon budget running out However, a study published on Wednesday in the journal Earth System Science Data, found that — if emissions continue at 2024 rates — we have only three years until we exhaust our carbon budget to keep warming below that 1.5 C threshold. "Record-high greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly narrowing the chance of limiting warming to 1.5 C," Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London and co-author of the report, said in a statement. "The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing. Global warming is already affecting the lives of billions of people around the world." Though the that threshold may be breached, climate scientists like to stress that every tenth of a degree matters. But to keep warming below 2 C — the threshold initially set by the Paris Agreement — there needs to be a concerted effort to drastically cut CO2 emissions, as Antonio Gutteres, secretary-general of the United Nations, has continually stressed. Buontempo said that he's hopeful that the tools we have today will at least help us deal with dealing with the outcomes of rising temperatures. "I'm an optimist. I've always been an optimist, and my feeling is that, you know, there are plenty of positives in this terrible situation, including the fact that we never had so much information about our planet," Buontempo said.
The Guardian
8 hours ago
- Health
- The Guardian
Deadly weekend heat in England ‘100 times more likely' due to climate crisis
The dangerous 32C heat that will be endured by people in the south-east of England on Saturday will have been made 100 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists have calculated. Global heating, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is making every heatwave more likely and more intense. The 32C (89.6F) day forecast on Saturday would have been expected only once every 2,500 years without the climate crisis, the researchers said, and June heatwaves are now about 2-4C (3.6-7.2F) hotter than in the past. The heat is expected to cause premature deaths, particularly among older and vulnerable people. More than 10,000 people died before their time in summer heatwaves between 2020 and 2024, according to the UK Health Security Agency, and the UK government has been heavily criticised for failing to properly prepare people for extreme weather. Prolonged heat is especially dangerous as it gives no time for people's bodies to cool off. Maximum temperatures in the south-east are expected to be above 28C for three consecutive days. The scientists said this heatwave was made 10 times more likely by the climate crisis. Dr Ben Clarke at Imperial College London, who was part of the research team, said the culprit for the extreme heat was clear. 'This weather just wouldn't have been a heatwave without human-induced warming,' he said. Climate breakdown drove the annual global temperature in 2024 to a new record and carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and gas are still rising. If that continues for just two more years, passing the internationally agreed limit of 1.5C above preindustrial levels will be inevitable, intensifying the extreme weather already taking lives in the UK and across the globe. Clarke said: 'With every fraction of a degree of warming, the UK will experience hotter, more dangerous heatwaves. That means more heat deaths, more pressure on the NHS, more transport disruptions, and tougher work conditions. The best way to avoid a future of relentless heat is by shifting to renewable energy.' Dr Friederike Otto, also at Imperial College London, said: 'It is really important to highlight this early summer heatwave because the impacts of heat are still severely underestimated, and the UK is not prepared for this type of weather.' The Climate Change Committee, the government's official advisers, said in April that the UK's preparations for adapting to a changing climate were 'inadequate, piecemeal and disjointed'. Otto said: 'Heatwaves are called the silent killer, because we don't see people dropping dead on the street, but killers they are. In Europe in 2022, more than 60,000 people died in the summer from extreme heat.' Maja Vahlberg at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre said: 'Sadly most people die from heat indoors and alone, especially older people and those with underlying health conditions, such as lung or heart disease.' Prof Mike Tipton, a physiologist at Portsmouth University, said: 'The human body is not designed to tolerate prolonged exposure to this sort of extreme heat. It is undeniable that climate change is now costing British lives. Those politicians and commentators who pour scorn on climate action should reflect on this fact because, until we stop emitting greenhouse gases, these episodes are only likely to become more extreme.' The extremely dry spring, combined with soaring temperatures, means the UK is also facing a high risk of wildfires, said Theodore Keeping, also at Imperial College London: 'We've already seen the highest burnt area on record in the UK this year.' People should take extreme care with fires, barbecues and cigarettes, he said. Sign up to Down to Earth The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential after newsletter promotion The rapid study of the role of global heating in the predicted weekend heatwave compared the likelihood of the high temperatures in today's hotter climate with that in the cooler preindustrial period. The team, part of the World Weather Attribution group, was also able to reuse detailed climate modelling undertaken for a similar heatwave in 2022, speeding up their conclusions. They said older people were at greatest risk from the high temperatures, but that others with existing vulnerabilities could also be affected, with the effectiveness of some medications being changed by the heat or affecting people's ability to cool down. Sweating is how the body cools so it is vital to drink plenty of water, the researchers said. Closing windows and curtains during the day and opening them in the cool of the night can help keep temperatures in homes down, they said. A recent study estimated that 80% of UK homes overheat in the summer. Temperatures in the UK rose above 40C for the first time in 2022. The Met Office said on Wednesday that the UK had a 50/50 chance of temperatures soaring to 40C again in the next 12 years as the climate crisis worsens and that 45C could not be ruled out. Extreme heat is more deadly than floods, earthquakes and hurricanes combined, according to a report by the insurance giant Swiss Re published on 12 June. 'Up to half a million people globally succumb to the effects of extreme heat each year,' it said. 'Extreme heat used to be considered the 'invisible peril' because the impacts are not as obvious as of other natural perils,' said Jérôme Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re. 'With a clear trend to longer, hotter heatwaves, it is important we shine a light on the true cost to human life, our economy, infrastructure, agriculture and healthcare.'
The Guardian
8 hours ago
- Science
- The Guardian
Researchers call for urgent exploration of methods to cool Earth
It is already obvious that some governments are not acting fast enough to keep the planet's temperature from rising dangerously. While it is essential to continue to concentrate on reducing methane and carbon dioxide emissions as quickly as possible, other methods of cooling the planet need to be urgently explored, according to academics at the University of Cambridge's engineering department. One of the problems is that many of the ideas put forward so far, including injecting sulphates into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space, could do more harm than good. This is because sulphates cause acid rain and interfere with rainfall patterns. To avoid controversy researchers are experimenting with alternatives to sulphates, substances that reflect sunlight but are benign. They will hoist them into the stratosphere using weather balloons then recover them to see what changes this exposure causes. No materials will be released but their cooling effect and whether they could otherwise be harmless can be gauged. Other ideas like drilling holes in the Arctic ice in the winter and pumping seawater over existing ice floes in below freezing air temperatures to thicken them are also being tried, along with spraying seawater to form clouds over the ocean, also to reflect sunlight. If these ideas are otherwise harmless, and work, they might yet save us.
Daily Mail
9 hours ago
- Climate
- Daily Mail
Scientists blame climate change for the UK heatwave: 32°C temperatures were made 100 TIMES more likely by global warming.
As the UK braces for the first heatwave of 2025, scientists warn that climate change is responsible. This weekend's 32°C (90°F) forecast was made 100 times more likely by global warming, according to the research group World Weather Attribution. Before humans began to alter the climate with fossil fuels, the UK would only see these temperatures in June once every 2,500 years. Today, Britons should expect to be hit by similar life-threatening extremes once every 25 years. Due to human activity, the planet's climate is now 1.3°C (2.34°F) warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution. This has made heatwaves like the one the UK is currently facing both more severe and more frequent. Historically, a June heatwave with three or more days above 28°C (82.4°F) would only happen about once every 50 years in the UK. Now, every June has a 20 per cent chance of experiencing a heatwave - 10 times more likely than in the pre-industrial period. Scientists found that three-day heatwaves in southeast England are now 3°C (5.4°F) hotter due to human-caused climate change heating the planet This week, the UK has experienced prolonged and intense heat building to a peak over the weekend. The current forecast predicts maximum temperatures to reach 32°C (90°F) in some locations, with heatwave thresholds likely to be exceeded across the country. The hottest area, Humberside, is predicted to reach 33°C (91.4°F) on Saturday, while London exceeds 30°C (86°F) until Monday. On Thursday, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued an amber heat alert for the whole of the UK, warning that there could be a 'rise in deaths'. In a new report, World Weather Attribution finds that these temperatures were made hotter and more likely by human-caused climate change. Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-lead of World Weather Attribution, says: 'We know exactly what has intensified this heatwave - burning oil, gas and coal, which has loaded the atmosphere with planet-heating greenhouse gases.' Overall, June heatwaves are now about 2-4°C (3.6-7.2°F) more intense due to climate change. In the report, the researchers warn that this is enough of a difference to turn June's forecast from 'warm sunny weather into dangerous heat'. While many people might be looking forward to enjoying the hot weather over the weekend, heatwaves are the deadliest extreme event in the world and kill hundreds of thousands each year. Professor Mike Tipton, a human physiologist from the University of Portsmouth who was not involved with the study, says: 'The human body is not designed to tolerate prolonged exposure to this sort of extreme heat. 'We know that when temperatures rise above 30 degrees there is a spike in excess deaths, particularly in vulnerable groups, and unfortunately we are likely to see that again in the coming days and weeks as the mercury once again rises to these dangerous levels.' Heatwaves are especially dangerous in June when people have not yet had a chance to acclimate to the heat. This is especially problematic for the elderly and infirm who might not be able to get outside to cool off or monitor their own temperature. During 2022, the UK experienced its most deadly heatwave on record when a record temperature of 40.3°C (104.5°F) was recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire. More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the four-day peak of the heatwave, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022. Professor Tipton says: 'With the evidence that 32-degree days in June are now 100 times more likely, it is undeniable that climate change is now costing British lives.' This comes after a study conducted by the Met Office predicted that summers rivalling the famous 1976 heatwave could become the norm as the climate continues to warm. During that summer, the UK spent a sweltering fortnight above the heatwave threshold of 28°C (82°F). Looking ahead, the Met Office warns that the UK might spend two-thirds of the summer at those temperatures, with continuous heatwaves lasting up to a month. The study warned there is now a 50/50 chance of the UK hitting 40°C again in the next 12 years, with a maximum of 46.6°C (115.9°F) now 'plausible' in today's climate. World Weather Attribution also warns that climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires in the UK. Theodore Keeping, wildfire researcher at Imperial College, says: 'Hotter temperatures mean an exponential increase in the evaporation of moisture from vegetation. 'This leads to much drier conditions, and results in a higher chance of wildfires starting and spreading as leaf litter and grasses become tinder dry.' The UK is already in the midst of a record year for wildfires, smashing the all-time record in the first four months of the year. Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, says: 'We're in the midst of a record-breaking year for wildfires, with exceptionally severe fire risk forecast for this weekend, bringing home the reality of continuing to pump carbon emissions into the atmosphere.' Ahead of this weekend's heatwave, emergency services around the country have issued warnings about the increased risk of fires. According to the Met Office, the fire severity risk is currently 'very high' in many places and 'high' in others. Mr Keeping adds: 'People going outside to enjoy the warm weather should not be using fire or disposable barbecues, dispose of cigarette butts carefully and should immediately notify emergency services if they do notice a fire.
