Latest news with #globalWarming
Washington Post
2 days ago
- Science
- Washington Post
Scientists warn that greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come
WASHINGTON — Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study to be released Thursday. The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year. 'Things aren't just getting worse. They're getting worse faster,' said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. 'We're actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there's a silver lining. I don't think there really is one in this one.' That 1.5 goal , first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures. In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said. The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data , shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said. 'It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,' said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. 'I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.' The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth's energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said. Earth's energy imbalance 'is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,' Hausfather said. Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. 'It is very clearly accelerating. It's worrisome,' he said. The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year . The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works. That 1.5 is 'a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,' said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded. Crossing the threshold 'means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,' said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study. Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn't focus on that particular threshold. 'Missing it does not mean the end of the world,' Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that 'each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.' ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at .
CTV News
2 days ago
- Science
- CTV News
Scientists warn that greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come
WASHINGTON — Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study to be released Thursday. The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year. 'Things aren't just getting worse. They're getting worse faster,' said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. 'We're actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there's a silver lining. I don't think there really is one in this one.' That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures. In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said. Earth's energy imbalance The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said. 'It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,' said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. 'I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.' The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth's energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said. Earth's energy imbalance 'is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,' Hausfather said. Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. 'It is very clearly accelerating. It's worrisome,' he said. Crossing the temperature limit The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works. That 1.5 is 'a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,' said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded. Crossing the threshold 'means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,' said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study. Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn't focus on that particular threshold. 'Missing it does not mean the end of the world,' Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that 'each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.' Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press
Daily Mail
12-06-2025
- General
- Daily Mail
Prince William looks the part in a flat cap and wellington boots as he visits a muddy Dartmoor after unveiling 'ambitious' 20-year plan to restore 'special' landscape
Prince William has stepped out in Dartmoor today after unveiling an 'ambitious' 20-year plan to restore the 'special' landscape. Looking the part in a pair of wellington boots and a flat cap, the Prince of Wales, known also as the Duke of Cornwall, visited Tor Bog, an area of restored peatland on the moor. His outing comes as the royal's estate, Duchy of Cornwall, launched a new project to 'create a resilient environment' and meet the changing needs of Dartmoor's communities. In a foreword to the Landscape Vision project, designed as a 20-year roadmap, William said that restoring nature and tackling global warming are key to keeping the area 'special'. His statement read: 'Dartmoor is a magnificent and complex ecosystem – the balance between nature and people has evolved for thousands of years to shape the landscape we recognise today. 'To keep Dartmoor special, we must respond to the twin challenges of global warming and the requirement to restore nature, while ensuring the communities on Dartmoor can thrive. 'The Dartmoor Vision shows us what might be possible and how that might be achieved. 'It is bold and ambitious and something that I hope, by working together, can be delivered for not just the current generation but for generations to come.' Researchers found the average number of frost days in Dartmoor is expected to halve over the next 40 years while the odds of a dry summer will rise by 30 per cent, the Duchy of Cornwall said. It added that 2C of global warming could prevent Dartmoor being suitable for blanket peatland, which stores carbon and water and sustains biodiversity. The project - which outlines a set of guiding principles to inform the future environmental management of the Duchy's Dartmoor estate - will focus on 'coordinated public and private investment' to restore peatlands and upland mosaic habitats in the south Devon area. Convened by the Duchy of Cornwall and Central Dartmoor Landscape Recovery Project, it is also seeking to create 'partnerships between landowners, farmers and wildlife teams' and foster 'collaboration and mutual respect in what has historically been a contested landscape'. The duchy said it will promote sustainable farming as well as initiatives to provide affordable housing for landscape managers and retiring workers. Around 35,000 people live in Dartmoor and more than two million people visit each year. Dartmoor provides essential resources such as clean water, timber and grazing land, with its vast peatlands also acting as an important store of carbon and water. The Landscape Vision has been developed to support the creation of a resilient environment for the future, based on input from those who know, rely on, and care for Dartmoor - including graziers, foresters, ecologists, farmers, peatland restorers, hydrologists, water companies, soldiers, fire services, conservationists, and custodians. William's outing comes as the royal's estate, Duchy of Cornwall, launched a new project to 'create a resilient environment' and meet the changing needs of Dartmoor's communities Claire Hyne, project manager at Central Dartmoor Landscape Recovery Project, said: 'The Central Dartmoor Landscape Recovery Project plans to continue to work alongside the duchy, farmers and commoners to co-create integrated land management plans whilst identifying opportunities for green finance and funding to help sustain farm businesses, test new ideas and deliver positive environmental outcomes.' Matthew Morris, rural director at the Duchy of Cornwall, said they want to set up a 'shared and multifunctional approach to the way the land is farmed, managed, and used, and in doing so create a more resilient Dartmoor environment'. Mr Morris added: 'With the Dartmoor landscape increasingly vulnerable to climate change, the need to build resilience is clearer than ever.' Meanwhile, Tony Juniper, Chair of Natural England, said: 'The historic and beautiful landscapes of Dartmoor can once again be vibrant with characteristic wildlife, if common cause can be forged among those who work in and enjoy this wonderful place. 'I commend the inclusive approach taken by the Duchy of Cornwall and Central Dartmoor Landscape Recovery project in shaping this vision for Dartmoor. 'Natural England supports the key principles and actions, and we look forward to supporting its implementation both directly and alongside those people who live and work in this special place.'
Free Malaysia Today
11-06-2025
- Science
- Free Malaysia Today
Emperor penguin populations declining faster than expected
Some emperor penguin colonies have lost all their chicks from thinning ice plunging hatchlings into the sea before they were old enough. (Envato Elements pic) PARIS : Emperor penguin populations in Antarctica have shrunk by almost a quarter as global warming transforms their icy habitat, according to new research today that warned the losses were far worse than previously imagined. Scientists monitoring the world's largest penguin species used satellites to assess sixteen colonies in the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea, representing nearly a third of the global emperor penguin population. What they found was 'probably about 50% worse' than even the most pessimistic estimate of current populations using computer modelling, said Peter Fretwell, who tracks wildlife from space at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). Researchers know that climate change is driving the losses but the speed of the declines is a particular cause for alarm. The study, published in the journal Nature Communications: Earth & Environment, found that numbers declined 22% in the 15 years to 2024 for the colonies monitored. This compares with an earlier estimate of a 9.5% reduction across Antarctica as a whole between 2009 and 2018. Warming is thinning and destabilising the ice under the penguins' feet in their breeding grounds. In recent years some colonies have lost all their chicks because the ice has given way beneath them, plunging hatchlings into the sea before they were old enough to cope with the freezing ocean. Fretwell said the new research suggests penguin numbers have been declining since the monitoring began in 2009. That is even before global warming was having a major impact on the sea ice, which forms over open water adjacent to land in the region. But he said the culprit is still likely to be climate change, with warming driving other challenges for the penguins, such as higher rainfall or increasing encroachment from predators. 'Emperor penguins are probably the most clear-cut example of where climate change is really showing its effect,' said Fretwell. 'There's no fishing. There's no habitat destruction. There's no pollution which is causing their populations to decline.' 'It's just the temperatures in the ice on which they breed and live, and that's really climate change.' Emperor penguins, aka Aptenodytes forsteri, number about a quarter of a million breeding pairs, all in Antarctica, according to a 2020 study. A baby emperor penguin emerges from an egg kept warm in winter by a male, while the female in a breeding pair embarks on a two-month fishing expedition. When she returns to the colony, she feeds the hatchling by regurgitating. To survive on their own, chicks must develop waterproof feathers, a process that typically starts in mid-December. Fretwell said there is hope that the penguins may go further south in the future but added that it is not clear 'how long they're going to last out there'. Computer models have projected that the species will be near extinction by the end of the century if humans do not slash their planet-heating emissions. The latest study suggests the picture could be even worse. 'We may have to rethink those models now with this new data,' said Fretwell. 'We really do need to look at the rest of the population to see if this worrying result transfers around the continent,' he added. But he stressed there was still time to reduce the threat to the penguins. 'We've got this really depressing picture of climate change and falling populations even faster than we thought but it's not too late,' he said. 'We're probably going to lose a lot of emperor penguins along the way but if people do change, and if we do reduce or turn around our climate emissions, then then we will save the emperor penguin.'
RNZ News
11-06-2025
- Science
- RNZ News
Emperor penguin populations in Antarctica declining faster than expected
Photo: AFP / Biosphoto By Kelly Macnamara , AFP Emperor penguin populations in Antarctica have shrunk by almost a quarter as global warming transforms their icy habitat, according to new research on Tuesday that warned the losses were far worse than previously imagined. Scientists monitoring the world's largest penguin species used satellites to assess sixteen colonies in the Antarctic Peninsula, Weddell Sea and Bellingshausen Sea, representing nearly a third of the global emperor penguin population. What they found was "probably about 50-percent worse" than even the most pessimistic estimate of current populations using computer modelling, said Peter Fretwell, who tracks wildlife from space at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). Researchers know that climate change is driving the losses but the speed of the declines is a particular cause for alarm. The study, published in the journal Nature Communications: Earth & Environment , found that numbers declined 22 percent in the 15 years to 2024 for the colonies monitored. This compares with an earlier estimate of a 9.5-percent reduction across Antarctica as a whole between 2009 and 2018. Warming is thinning and destabilising the ice under the penguins' feet in their breeding grounds. In recent years some colonies have lost all their chicks because the ice has given way beneath them, plunging hatchlings into the sea before they were old enough to cope with the freezing ocean. Fretwell said the new research suggests penguin numbers have been declining since the monitoring began in 2009. That is even before global warming was having a major impact on the sea ice, which forms over open water adjacent to land in the region. But he said the culprit is still likely to be climate change, with warming driving other challenges for the penguins, such as higher rainfall or increasing encroachment from predators. "Emperor penguins are probably the most clear-cut example of where climate change is really showing its effect," Fretwell told AFP. "There's no fishing. There's no habitat destruction. There's no pollution which is causing their populations to decline. "It's just the temperatures in the ice on which they breed and live, and that's really climate change." Some colonies have lost all their chicks in recent years because the ice has given way beneath them. Photo: AFP / Biosphoto Emperor penguins, aka Aptenodytes forsteri, number about a quarter of a million breeding pairs, all in Antarctica, according to a 2020 study. A baby emperor penguin emerges from an egg kept warm in winter by a male, while the female in a breeding pair embarks on a two-month fishing expedition. When she returns to the colony, she feeds the hatchling by regurgitating and then both parents take turns to forage. To survive on their own, chicks must develop waterproof feathers, a process that typically starts in mid-December. The new research uses high-resolution satellite imagery during the months of October and November, before the region is plunged into winter darkness. Fretwell said future research could use other types of satellite monitoring, like radar or thermal imaging, to capture populations in the darker months, as well as expand to the other colonies. "We really do need to look at the rest of the population to see if this worrying result transfers around the continent," he said, adding however that the colonies studied were considered representative. He said there is hope that the penguins may go further south to colder regions in the future but added that it is not clear "how long they're going to last out there". Computer models have projected that the species will be near extinction by the end of the century if humans do not slash their planet-heating emissions. The latest study suggests the picture could be even worse. "We may have to rethink those models now with this new data," said Fretwell. But he stressed there was still time to reduce the threat to the penguins. "We've got this really depressing picture of climate change and falling populations even faster than we thought but it's not too late," he said. "We're probably going to lose a lot of emperor penguins along the way but if people do change, and if we do reduce or turn around our climate emissions, then then we will save the emperor penguin." - AFP
