Latest news with #geopoliticalrisk
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Accenture says CEOs are postponing hiring consultants due to uncertainty
A 'significantly elevated' level of economic and geopolitical uncertainty is causing business leaders to hold off on hiring consultants for Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Zawya
13 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
Oil, war and tariffs tear up markets' central bank roadmap
LONDON - Investor unease about an increasingly uncertain environment is rising, as Norway's shock rate cut on Thursday highlights how U.S. tariffs, Middle East conflict and a shaky dollar make global monetary policy and inflation even harder to predict. Norway's crown slid roughly 1% against the dollar and the euro in a sign of how unexpected the move was. And Switzerland, which cut borrowing costs to 0% on Thursday, confounded some expectations among traders for a return to negative rates in the deflation-hit nation, as its central bank warned of a cloudy global outlook. Just a day earlier the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates on hold and chair Jerome Powell said "no one" had conviction on the rate path ahead. The conclusion for markets: monetary policy uncertainty is one more headwind to navigate against a backdrop of geopolitical and trade risks. Global stocks pulled away from recent peaks, a gauge of expected volatility in European equities touched a two-month high as stocks across the region fell and government bonds, usually geopolitical risk havens, sold off. "We're at a moment of considerable policy and macro uncertainty," said BlueBay chief investment officer at RBC Global Asset Management Mark Dowding. "We can't see a clear trend on interest rates," he added, which meant he was holding back from active market bets across the group's investment portfolios. Volatility was set to rise, some investors said, because a choppy dollar and oil prices whipped around by geopolitics meant that central banks were far less able to provide markets and investors a clear route map for the future. "You cannot just take your cues from the central banks anymore as they are facing a harder job of reading the economy themselves," T.S. Lombard director of European and global macro Davide Oneglia said. BROKEN MODELS Rate-cutting European central banks are not just diverging from the Fed, which is grappling with the inflationary risks of President Donald Trump's tariffs. They are also struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar, the lynchpin of world trade, commodity prices and asset valuations, has turned weaker and more volatile under trade war stress and government debt anxiety. "That's a massive, massive fundamental shift in global markets that everyone is trying to assess," Monex Europe head of Macro Research Nick Rees said. "All of those standard economic rules of thumb we use for forecasting are completely broken right now." The dollar is down almost 9% against other major currencies this year but has risen following the outbreak of a war between Israel and Iran. European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday the ECB might have to adapt its rate cut plans if oil price volatility was long-lasting. The new status quo in markets could well be an era of central bank surprises that create rapid shifts in the market narrative, asset pricing and volatility trends, analysts said. "We're getting into this next cycle in which variables are much more volatile, because, rather than (monetary policy) being just easily predictable, events just take over and policy and human factors, as we now know with Donald Trump, play an important role," Oneglia said. Norway's surprise cut came because the crown was a "runaway top currency" of the trade-war era, added Societe Generale's head of FX strategy Kit Juckes. With investors chasing around the world to identify stores of wealth that are not U.S. dollars, meanwhile, the Swiss franc has soared, cutting the costs of imports and pushing the economy into deflation. On Thursday, the franc rose against the dollar as traders saw the SNB's cut as too small to keep deflation at bay. Ninety One multi-asset head John Stopford said the hazard risk was rising for global stocks and that options products that aim to offer protection from incoming volatility looked fairly cheap. He was buying bonds issued in nations where inflation and rates could come down materially, such as New Zealand, but was negative on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds where economic uncertainty was higher and government borrowing was likely to rise. Global stocks remain almost 20% above their April trough, after investors relaxed about tariffs. Stopford said there was more to worry about in the short term. "The stock market feels like it's a thatched house in a hot country with a fire hazard risk, and people aren't charging much to insure the house," Stopford added. (Reporting by Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Toby Chopra)
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-Oil, war and tariffs tear up markets' central bank roadmap
By Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON (Reuters) -Investor unease about an increasingly uncertain environment is rising, as Norway's shock rate cut on Thursday highlights how U.S. tariffs, Middle East conflict and a shaky dollar make global monetary policy and inflation even harder to predict. Norway's crown slid roughly 1% against the dollar and the euro in a sign of how unexpected the move was. And Switzerland, which cut borrowing costs to 0% on Thursday, confounded some expectations among traders for a return to negative rates in the deflation-hit nation, as its central bank warned of a cloudy global outlook. Just a day earlier the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates on hold and chair Jerome Powell said "no one" had conviction on the rate path ahead. The conclusion for markets: monetary policy uncertainty is one more headwind to navigate against a backdrop of geopolitical and trade risks. Global stocks pulled away from recent peaks, a gauge of expected volatility in European equities touched a two-month high as stocks across the region fell and government bonds, usually geopolitical risk havens, sold off. "We're at a moment of considerable policy and macro uncertainty," said BlueBay chief investment officer at RBC Global Asset Management Mark Dowding. "We can't see a clear trend on interest rates," he added, which meant he was holding back from active market bets across the group's investment portfolios. Volatility was set to rise, some investors said, because a choppy dollar and oil prices whipped around by geopolitics meant that central banks were far less able to provide markets and investors a clear route map for the future. "You cannot just take your cues from the central banks anymore as they are facing a harder job of reading the economy themselves," T.S. Lombard director of European and global macro Davide Oneglia said. BROKEN MODELS Rate-cutting European central banks are not just diverging from the Fed, which is grappling with the inflationary risks of President Donald Trump's tariffs. They are also struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar, the lynchpin of world trade, commodity prices and asset valuations, has turned weaker and more volatile under trade war stress and government debt anxiety. "That's a massive, massive fundamental shift in global markets that everyone is trying to assess," Monex Europe head of Macro Research Nick Rees said. "All of those standard economic rules of thumb we use for forecasting are completely broken right now." The dollar is down almost 9% against other major currencies this year but has risen following the outbreak of a war between Israel and Iran. European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday the ECB might have to adapt its rate cut plans if oil price volatility was long-lasting. The new status quo in markets could well be an era of central bank surprises that create rapid shifts in the market narrative, asset pricing and volatility trends, analysts said. "We're getting into this next cycle in which variables are much more volatile, because, rather than (monetary policy) being just easily predictable, events just take over and policy and human factors, as we now know with Donald Trump, play an important role," Oneglia said. Norway's surprise cut came because the crown was a "runaway top currency" of the trade-war era, added Societe Generale's head of FX strategy Kit Juckes. With investors chasing around the world to identify stores of wealth that are not U.S. dollars, meanwhile, the Swiss franc has soared, cutting the costs of imports and pushing the economy into deflation. On Thursday, the franc rose against the dollar as traders saw the SNB's cut as too small to keep deflation at bay. Ninety One multi-asset head John Stopford said the hazard risk was rising for global stocks and that options products that aim to offer protection from incoming volatility looked fairly cheap. He was buying bonds issued in nations where inflation and rates could come down materially, such as New Zealand, but was negative on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds where economic uncertainty was higher and government borrowing was likely to rise. Global stocks remain almost 20% above their April trough, after investors relaxed about tariffs. Stopford said there was more to worry about in the short term. "The stock market feels like it's a thatched house in a hot country with a fire hazard risk, and people aren't charging much to insure the house," Stopford added. 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
Argaam
a day ago
- Business
- Argaam
Oil prices climb as Brent tops $77
Oil prices rose on Thursday after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites and both sides continued exchanging missile fire, while markets watched for any US decision on formally entering the conflict. Brent crude futures for August delivery climbed 1.15%, or 89 cents, to $77.59 a barrel by 02:44 p.m. Mecca time. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July delivery also gained 1.52%, or $1.14, to $76.28 per barrel. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Wednesday that the geopolitical risk premium is currently estimated at around $10 per barrel, driven by reduced Iranian supply and the possibility of wider disruptions that could push Brent prices above $90. RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft told Reuters that any perception of an existential threat in Iran could increase the risk of attacks on oil tankers and energy infrastructure, particularly if the US intervenes militarily.
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
Oil prices jump as Israel-Iran conflict enters seventh day
Oil prices rose on Thursday after Israel and Iran continued to exchange missile attacks overnight and U.S. President Donald Trump's stance on the conflict kept investors on edge. Brent crude futures rose $1.06, or 1.4%, to $77.76 a barrel by 1151 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July was up $1.26, or 1.7%, at $76.40. Brent had surged to its highest in nearly five months at $78.50 on June 13, when Israel began its attacks. The conflict entered its seventh day on Thursday after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites and Iranian missiles hit an Israeli hospital. There is still a "healthy risk premium baked into the price as traders wait to see whether the next stage of the Israel-Iran conflict is a U.S. strike or peace talks", said Tony Sycamore, analyst at trading platform IG. Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that a geopolitical risk premium of about $10 a barrel is justified, given lower Iranian supply and risk of wider disruption that could push Brent crude above $90. President Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he had yet to decide whether the U.S. will join Israel in its attacks on Iran. As a result of the unpredictability that has long characterised Trump's foreign policy, "markets remain jittery, awaiting firmer signals that could influence global oil supply and regional stability" said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova. The risk of major energy disruption will rise if Iran feels existentially threatened, and U.S. entry into the conflict could trigger direct attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure, said RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft. Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. About 18 million to 21 million bpd of oil and oil products move through the Strait of Hormuz along Iran's southern coast and there is widespread concern the fighting could disrupt trade flows. Separately, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday but pencilled in two cuts by the end of the year. Lower interest rates could stimulate the economy, helping to support demand for oil. On the supply side, U.S. crude stockpiles fell sharply last week, registering the largest decline in a year, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Russia, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia could act jointly to stabilise oil markets if needed, Russia's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev told Reuters.
