Latest news with #fundmanagers
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Most investors see international stocks beating US peers over the next 5 years, BofA survey shows
Most investors think the US stock market will underperform global stocks over the next five years 54% of fund managers believe international stocks will be the top-performing asset, BofA's latest survey found. Investors see a global recession triggered by tariffs as the largest tail risk for markets. Investors see years of US stock outperformance coming to an end, with most respondents in a survey from Bank of America eyeing international stocks as the top performer in the coming years. Global fund managers surveyed by the bank indicated they felt more optimistic about international stocks than US equities this month. More than half of investors—54%—surveyed from June 6 to June 12 said they believe international equities would be the best-performing asset over the next five years, BofA strategists wrote on Tuesday. That compares to just 23% of investors who think US stocks will be the best-performing asset, and a combined 18% of investors who believed the best-performing asset would be either gold, government bonds, or corporate bonds. The pessimism hanging over US markets appears to stem from President Donald Trump's trade war and concerns about the effects of tariffs on the global economy. 47% of fund managers said they believe a trade war triggering a global recession was the largest "tail risk" to markets. A worldwide recession has been the largest perceived tail risk to markets for three months in a row. Other prominent tail risks investors were eying this month include the Fed hiking interest rates to combat inflation, or a credit event triggered by the "disorderly" rise in bond yields, the bank said. Still, strategists said that investor sentiment had picked up in Bank of America's June survey compared to recent months, and the mood has recovered back to pre-Liberation Day levels. A sentiment gauge that tracks investors' growth expectations, cash level, and allocation to stocks also rose to 5.4 in June, the gauge's highest level since before Trump's April 2 tariff unveiling. "Investor sentiment back to pre-Liberation Day 'Goldilocks bull' levels, but not worrying bullish," strategists wrote. 66% of surveyed investors also said they believe the global economy would avoid a recession and secure a soft landing over the next 12 months, up from 37% of investors who felt that way in BofA's April survey. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Janus Henderson: Market Mayhem Opens New ETF Entry Points
Market volatility in 2025 has created entry points for exchange-traded fund investors as trade tensions and global uncertainty drive down stock and bond prices. The first half of this year saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 fall 24% from its peak while the S&P 500 dropped 19%, creating opportunities for investors who had been waiting for better entry points, according to Janus Henderson Investors's recent mid-year outlook. These temporary declines allowed investors to purchase quality companies at reduced prices. The market stress stems from concerns about new tariffs and shifting global politics, which continue to create uncertainty, according to the report. While most investors dislike volatility, these price swings actually create opportunities for fund managers to find undervalued investments. The investment firm's analysis shows that major economic changes could benefit the types of investments that have been overlooked, while a handful of large technology stocks dominated returns, creating opportunities for more diversified ETF strategies. This year marks a shift away from the mega-cap stocks that led markets for years, the outlook found. Half of all S&P 500 companies now outperform the index over the calendar year, up from 40% in recent years. This broadening gives active ETF managers more opportunities to identify winners and losers. Small-cap ETFs look particularly appealing after declining in the recent selloff, which created entry points into quality smaller firms at discounted valuations, according to the analysis. These funds have twice the exposure to industrial and materials companies compared to large-cap funds, sectors that could benefit as companies relocate production. International ETFs are also attracting investor interest, with European and emerging markets stocks trading at lower valuations compared to U.S. shares, the report notes. Historical data show U.S. and foreign stocks alternate leadership about every eight years, and U.S. stocks have led for 14 consecutive years. Corporate bond markets experienced dramatic swings this year, with investment-grade company debt starting at tight pricing before spreads widened and then narrowed again, according to Janus Henderson's data. These moves pushed more investors toward bond ETFs that diversify across different debt types rather than focusing on one sector, the firm noted. The multi-sector category has become one of the fastest-growing areas in fixed income as managers adapt to changing market conditions. Bond ETFs focused on asset-backed debt demonstrated defensive characteristics during the recent stock market decline, posting small gains or flat returns while the S&P 500 fell nearly 19% from its February high, the analysis found. These specialized debt funds have outperformed corporate bonds during the five most recent market corrections, with only Treasury bonds performing better. The report indicates volatility will continue creating opportunities for ETF investors who remain selective in both U.S. and international markets as policy uncertainty persists through the remainder of | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Sign in to access your portfolio
Globe and Mail
6 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Gold is the most crowded trade, say global fund managers
Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow BofA Securities strategist Michael Hartnett summarizes his monthly survey of global fund managers and finds, among other things, that gold is the most crowded trades according to money managers, 'Investor sentiment recovers to pre-Liberation Day 'Goldilocks bull' levels as trade war & recession fears abate; cash level drops to 4.2 per cent (was 4.8 per cent in April) but not worrying low … Investor UW [underweight] in US$ largest in 20 years … Biggest summer pain trade is long the buck … Global growth expectations improve but still weak (net 46 per cent); big reversal in recession odds (net 42 per cent 'likely' in April to 36 per cent 'unlikely' in June); 66 per cent expect soft landing (8-month high - 16 per cent = no landing, 13 per cent = hard landing); One Big Beautiful Bill to increase U.S. growth say 33 per cent vs 81 per cent to increase U.S. deficit; investors say corporate balance sheets in best health since Dec'15, and most since Jul'13 want companies to return cash to shareholders. On Returns, Risks, Crowds: best performing asset next 5 years … 54 per cent say international stocks, 23 per cent U.S. stocks, 13 per cent gold, 5 per cent bonds; expectation of higher bond yields most since Aug'22; most crowded trades…long gold (41 per cent), long Magnificent 7 (23 per cent), short US$ (20 per cent); #1 tail risk still trade war recession, but down from 80 per cent in April to 47 per cent' *** Purpose-built rental housing construction is supporting the real estate construction sector, 'Canadian housing starts continue to hold up despite weak buyer demand. Starts for homeownership and condos have trended at around 110k annualized units (seasonally adjusted) so far this year, which is down more than 20 per cent from recent norms through 2022 and 2023. Purpose-built rental starts, however, have filled the gap, also trending at right around 110k annualized units so far this year. In fact, the longstanding gap between ownership/condo starts and purpose-built rental starts has now closed. The supply-demand dynamic for the rental market— a sudden cooling of immigration-led demand, but long lead times on supply—is likely to pressure rents down in the year (or more) ahead. At the same time, this does little to alleviate shortages of family-sized single-detached housing, especially in the major cities' 'BMO: Purpose-built rental construction holding up the sector' – (research excerpt, chart) Bluesky *** Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, respects strong technicals but does not love the longer-term market outlook, 'Survey-based sentiment suggests ample room for equities to climb the 'wall of worry,' and better financial conditions have helped normalize implied stock volatility, fueling the rally. Market-leadership factor composition suggests a tilt toward economic reacceleration and upside surprises. Tactically, we must respect these technical … Not only has reduction of tariff and tax policy uncertainty been limited, but geopolitical risks have persisted, as the labor market hints at a turn. We also remain skeptical that improved operating margin leverage is imminent. Last week, we outlined potential contours of a new bull case dependent on 'ooking through' 2025 and faith in capex-fueled productivity gains. That remains plausible, but for now we are proceeding with caution given limited visibility. Consider increasing active stock-picking, as the passive index undergoes compositional rotation, with the Magnificent Seven no longer a correlated block. Use risk-asset repricing to rebalance and position for potential 5–10-per-cent U.S. equity returns amid more volatility, higher real rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, noting this isn't the time to count on valuation expansion. Add diversifying positions in international equities, commodities and hedge funds. Energy/energy infrastructure is our most favored tactical long recommendation. Overweighting short-to-neutral-duration investment grade and municipal bonds still makes sense' *** Bluesky post of the day: Diversion: 'AI transforms new drug development with simultaneous analysis of 21 chemical reactions' –
Bloomberg
05-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Private Credit Rolls Loans Into New Funds to Pay Back Investors
Private credit firms are flooding the market with continuation funds, as a lack of mergers and acquisitions, a fundraising drought and US tariff-induced volatility force them to find other ways to return cash to investors. These vehicles are a type of secondary transaction, once reserved for private equity firms that needed to hold on to their investments longer. Managers can roll over an existing portfolio of assets into a new fund with new investors. Existing limited partners can cash out without waiting for loans to be paid off or refinanced.
Zawya
26-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Kenya's financial regulators seek to boost issuers' victim compensation
Kenya's financial sector regulators are discussing a proposal to require fund managers, investment banks and stockbrokers to make full disclosures of their clients whose funds are invested in corporate bonds. This is in an attempt to improve the value of compensation to victims of distressed bond issuers and save the corporate bond market from further crisis of confidence. The customer disclosures, the regulators say, will help to ensure bondholders of collapsed or defaulting issuers receive maximum compensation. Currently, fund managers pool together resources from several clients and make investments in corporate bonds as single investments and usually in their name, without disclosing the identities of the investors. This means that in the event an issuer falls into distress, the investment will be treated as a being from a single investor—the fund manager. Therefore, in the case of the Capital Markets Authority (CMA), the fund manager's compensation will be limited to a maximum of Ksh200,000 ($1,550.38), and this has to be shared among the many investors whose resources had been pooled to invest in the bond. Assuming the fund manager collected hundreds of millions from investors and bought a corporate bond, the investors would lose heavily. The financial regulators believe if the identities of the investors in the pooled investment are disclosed, each of them can be treated as an independent bondholder and thus minimise losses.'I think this has been a very good discussion largely and a lot of progress has been made. So, I need to confirm where we are, but I think these discussions have been very helpful. They have involved, of course, all the parties under the joint financial sector regulators and I think they made very good progress,' CMA Chief Executive Wycliffe Shamiah told The EastAfrican in an interview.'The issues of disclosures are the ones we are trying to see how we can make it easier for those who are making these investments, and it has sort of been agreed,' he added. He indicated that discussion among all financial sector regulators—CMA, Central bank of Kenya, Insurance Regulatory Authority, Retirement Benefits Authority and Sacco Societies Regulatory Authority—are centered on full disclosure of the investors whose money is invested by fund managers, investment banks and brokers in bond issues.'We have learnt from experience. For instance, if you find fund manager A has put Ksh100 million ($775,193.79) in a corporate bond. This fund manager is not using money from one person. There are many people who have given him money, so when the Ksh100 million goes bust there are many people who have burnt their fingers because the money was for many investors,' said Mr Shamiah.'So what we were discussing is how we can make it so that when people are being compensated you don't just look at the fund manager alone. You have a way of the fund manager sharing with the rest of the people who are the specific investors so that each of them can be seen as a separate investor,' he added. These discussions follow public outcry over the loss of investor funds in several companies that collapsed or defaulted on their debt repayments after issuing bonds. For instance, in 2015, Chase and Imperial banks were given the go-ahead to issue Ksh4.8 billion ($37.2 million) and Ksh2 billion ($15.5 million) bonds, respectively, only for the two lenders to be pushed into receivership in quick succession by the Central Bank as a result of financial and corporate governance issues. Other companies that have in the past defaulted on their obligations in the corporate debt market include Nakumatt (collapsed), ARM Cement (in liquidation), Real People Kenya Ltd and Consolidated Bank of Kenya, which was later bailed out by the National Treasury. Attempts by the CMA to amend the deposit protection law - separating fund managers' bond investments from customer deposits and other bank liabilities to protect bondholders in case of a bank collapse -have been unsuccessful. The absence of a compensation scheme for bondholders in collapsed companies has instilled fear of investing in corporate bonds. Treasury bonds remain dominant in the Kenyan bond market, accounting for about 99.93 per cent of the debt market. As of December 31, 2024, there were five active listed corporate bond issuers on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, with the total outstanding amount of bond issues at Ksh19.5 billion ($151.16 million). These are East African Breweries Ltd (Ksh11 billion or $85.27 million), Real People Kenya Ltd (Ksh390.93 million or $3.03 million), Family Bank Ltd (Ksh4 billion or $31 million), Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company (Ksh1.1 billion or $8.52 million) and Linzi Sukuk (Ksh3 billion or $23.25 million). © Copyright 2022 Nation Media Group. All Rights Reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
