Latest news with #fiscalsurplus
Zawya
4 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
UAE's economic growth forecast to remain resilient at 4% until 2028
The UAE's economic growth is expected to remain resilient at around 4% from 2025 to 2028, supported by buoyant non-oil sector activity and rising oil output, according to S&P Global. 'Despite lower oil prices and headwinds from a global economic slowdown, we expect continued fiscal surpluses at the consolidated federal government and individual emirates level,' said Zahabia S Gupta, Director in Sovereign team at S&P Global Ratings. Investment income on liquid assets will support an increase in the net asset position to an estimated 177% of GDP through 2028, she said. S&P assigned 'AA/A-1+' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings to the UAE. The stable outlook reflects the rating agency's expectation that the UAE's consolidated fiscal and external positions will remain strong over the next two years amid continued prudent policymaking and resilient economic growth. However, downside risks remain. A significant drop in per capita GDP due to slower-than-expected growth or higher population inflows could weigh on the outlook. Additionally, a notable increase in government interest costs from higher borrowing or external funding needs could add pressure, Gupta said. S&P expects the general government (the federal government and its seven emirates) will run fiscal surpluses averaging 3.2% of GDP until 2028, assuming Brent oil prices of $60 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel through 2028. Government debt is expected to remain stable at about 28% of GDP over the next four years as the federal government and emirates, such as Abu Dhabi, plan to issue local currency debt to develop domestic capital markets, Gupta said. The rating agency forecasts that rising oil production and robust prospects in the non-oil sector will underpin relatively strong economic growth in 2025-2026. 'The UAE continues to implement structural policies to improve the business environment, encourage foreign investment, and attract skilled foreign labour,' she said. Gupta stated that S&P expects regional geopolitical tensions to have a limited effect on the UAE, given its strong asset base and record of domestic stability.
Zawya
02-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Oman posts $1bln surplus on oil gains
MUSCAT: Oman posted a fiscal surplus of RO 540 million at the close of 2024, outperforming initial expectations and reversing a projected deficit of RO 640 million. The stronger-than-anticipated outcome was fuelled by robust oil revenues and disciplined expenditure, reinforcing the Sultanate's progress towards fiscal sustainability under Oman Vision 2040. Citing the audited financial performance of the State General Budget for 2024, the Ministry of Finance noted that total state revenues reached RO 12.78 billion, representing a 16 per cent increase over the budgeted RO 11.01 billion. The uptick was largely attributed to favourable oil market dynamics. Oman's average oil price stood at USD 82 per barrel—well above the assumed USD 60—adding significant upside despite a decline in production volumes. Daily output averaged 997,000 barrels, compared to the budgeted 1.031 million barrels per day, reflecting Oman's continued adherence to voluntary OPEC+ cuts. Oil revenues rose by 26 per cent year-on-year to RO 7.45 billion, while gas revenues climbed to RO 1.82 billion, marking a 16 per cent gain from budget estimates. Non-oil revenues remained broadly stable at RO 3.51 billion, marginally below expectations. On the spending side, total public expenditure reached RO 12.24 billion, exceeding the original allocation of RO 11.65 billion by five per cent. The rise in expenditure was driven primarily by a surge in development spending, which grew by 31 per cent to RO 1.5 billion. Contributions and other payments increased 14 per cent to RO 2.2 billion, while current expenditure was maintained within target, declining slightly to RO 8.53 billion. The Ministry of Finance stated that the increase in development spending reflects the government's ongoing efforts to support infrastructure expansion, social protection, and economic diversification. Additional spending was directed towards accelerating project delivery, enhancing public services, and stimulating domestic growth—all core objectives under Oman Vision 2040. In parallel with its revenue performance, Oman made further progress on debt reduction. More than RO 660 million in public debt repayments were made during the year, bringing total outstanding debt down to approximately RO 14.6 billion. Additionally, over RO 1.6 billion in private sector obligations were fully settled through the automated financial cycle system, helping improve liquidity and bolster confidence among contractors and service providers. The Ministry affirmed its commitment to responsible fiscal management and stated that the 2024 performance demonstrates the effectiveness of its macro-fiscal strategy. The combination of higher revenues, contained spending, and debt reduction enhances Oman's credit outlook and positions the economy for greater resilience in the years ahead. As oil markets stabilise and domestic reforms advance, Oman's ability to generate fiscal space while investing in development priorities signals growing alignment with its long-term transformation goals. The 2024 budget execution stands as a key milestone in the country's journey towards balanced growth and economic diversification.
