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Why Tom Lee says the odds favor a stock-market rally after the Fed decision
Why Tom Lee says the odds favor a stock-market rally after the Fed decision

Yahoo

time15 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Why Tom Lee says the odds favor a stock-market rally after the Fed decision

Happy Fed Day to all who observe, and at least one widely followed analyst says there's potential for market fireworks despite the 98.8% probability (according to futures markets) the central bank won't move interest rates. That analyst is none other than Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, whose enthusiasm for stocks generally extends to any day ending with the letter 'Y.' 'I'm at my wit's end': My niece paid off her husband's credit card but fell behind on her taxes. How can I help her? 'I prepaid our mom's rent for a year': My sister is a millionaire and never helps our mother. How do I cut her out of her will? Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make. I'm 51, earn $129K and have $165K in my 401(k). Can I afford to retire when my husband, 59, draws Social Security at 62? Why Tom Lee says the odds favor a stock-market rally after the Fed decision Lee, like most everyone, isn't expecting the Fed to cut interest rates later on Wednesday. But he does make a notable case for why the market may react positively. 'We believe the Fed will acknowledge that inflation is undershooting their expectations. Recall the Fed has argued that tariff uncertainty causes them to be on hold. But incoming inflation has been soft,' says Lee. The consumer price index rose a scant 0.1% on a monthly basis in May. Import prices were flat. A real-time measure of import prices, updated through data last week, also has shown little pass through from tariffs to end prices. Market-based measures have fallen to the lowest level in a year, he adds. 'So we think Fed will have to acknowledge this. And we know there is a lot of partisan bias in the inflation consumer surveys,' says Lee. 'So markets likely realize Fed will have to relent eventually and return to a dovish bias.' Lee expects the stock market to return to all-tim highs (the S&P 500 was only 3% away anyway) — he said bitcoin is a leading indicator and the cryptocurrency achievved a record last week. He still has a 6,600 target for the S&P 500 by year end. Stock-market futures ES00 NQ00 were flipping between small gains and losses after an 0.8% retreat for the S&P 500 SPX on Tuesday. Oil CL00 edged higher. Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 5982.72 -0.93% 0.71% 1.72% 9.03% Nasdaq Composite 19,521.09 -0.98% 1.98% 1.09% 9.29% 10-year Treasury 4.382 -4.50 -22.30 -19.40 15.50 Gold 3396.8 0.62% 2.42% 28.70% 44.90% Oil 72.63 6.34% 18.41% 1.06% -10.09% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern. At pixel time, the U.S. military still has not joined Israel's fight with Iran, which continued into Wednesday. Iran's supreme leader said the country would not surrender, replying to U.S. President Donald Trump's demand on Tuesday. The Fed decision — and importantly, the dot plot of interest-rate projections — is coming at 2 p.m. Eastern, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. Morgan Stanley's economists say they still expecting the dot plot to forecast two rate cuts this year. Weekly jobless claims dipped by 5,000 to 245,000, while housing starts tumbled 9.8% in May to an annual rate of 1.26 million. The Senate passed the stablecoin bill, which creates a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency tokens, and now goes to the House. Goldman ditches ban on SPACs as blank-check firms stage comeback. Jamie Dimon wants workers in the office. So why is he letting JPMorgan's European chief work remotely? The bigger picture from Bulgaria joining the euro Data on the U.S. economy is clearly deteriorating, says Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro. This chart plots the decline in building material sales, which at a seasonally adjusted annual rate have tumbled 7.7% over the last six months. 'Recall that building material store sales represent an intermediate product that ultimately affects residential investment,' he says. Besides the retail sales report, Dutta also noted the New York Fed's service sector index points on ongoing contraction, industrial production fell for the second time in three months and home builder confidence fell to the lowest level since 2022. Here were the top stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern. Ticker Security name TSLA Tesla NVDA Nvidia GME GameStop PLTR Palantir Technologies AMD Advanced Micro Devices AAPL Apple TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing AMZN MLGO MicroAlgo CRCL Circle Internet Group An Italian museum had a crystal-covered chair on display, and the inevitable happened. An 80-year old man tried driving down the famous Spanish Steps in Rome, and it didn't go well. This elderly dog, however, had more success taking on a wild bear. For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, . I'm 75 and have a reverse mortgage. Should I pay it off with my $200K savings — and live off Social Security instead? 20 companies in the S&P 500 whose investors have gained the greatest rewards from stock buybacks Israel-Iran conflict poses three challenges for stocks that could slam market by up to 20%, warns RBC 'I'm 68 and my 401(k) has dwindled to $82,000': My husband committed financial infidelity and has $50,000 in credit-card debt. What now? 'It might be another Apple or Microsoft': My wife invested $100K in one stock and it exploded 1,500%. Do we sell?

BridgeWise launches SignalWise to deliver AI-driven, real-time market intelligence for investors
BridgeWise launches SignalWise to deliver AI-driven, real-time market intelligence for investors

Zawya

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Zawya

BridgeWise launches SignalWise to deliver AI-driven, real-time market intelligence for investors

Since entering the MENA region in April 2025 with the launch of its regional headquarters in Dubai, the AI-powered investment intelligence platform has unveiled a cutting-edge solution that provides personalized alerts and contextual insights across asset classes, empowering trading platforms and wealth advisors to boost user engagement and help investors make timely, informed decisions in volatile markets. UAE, Dubai – BridgeWise, the leading global AI investment intelligence platform, today announced the launch of SignalWise, a next-generation personalized alerts and insights system designed for digital trading platforms and financial advisors. SignalWise enables platforms and investment professionals to deliver timely, transparent, and highly relevant market intelligence that engages clients, activates trading, and supports confident decision-making. Unlike conventional alert systems, SignalWise combines real-time event detection with first-of-its-kind AI-powered predictive analysis and deep personalization, correlating events and asset types with the right audience segments, based on their portfolios and behavior. SignalWise provides context and perspective, sharing historical analyses and insights in multiple languages for any given security, from stocks to ETFs and mutual funds, forex pairs, crypto indices, and commodities. 'In today's climate of geopolitical uncertainty, guesswork has no place in investing. Confident investment decisions require clear data-driven intelligence that builds trust,' said Ayush Khatri, Regional Head for the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey (MENAT) at BridgeWise. 'SignalWise delivers an AI-empowered investment experience that transforms real-time market data into intelligent, contextual alerts, equipping investors to navigate volatility with precision and act decisively across multiple asset classes.' BridgeWise has deepened its presence in the MENA region with its regional HQ established in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), supported by a strategic investment from Emirates NBD. Trusted by leading institutions worldwide and in the UAE, BridgeWise is bringing its proven technology – including SignalWise, alongside AI-powered investment chat and analytics — to one of the region's most sophisticated financial hubs. Promoting Timely, Confident Decision-Making For the first time with SignalWise, trading platforms and advisors can fully control the trading cycle and activate investors with personalized, interest and behavioral-based alerts. SignalWise introduces a multi-tiered architecture that separates it from traditional alerting tools: Live event detection: Identifies and broadcasts major market movements—such as price breakouts, range shifts, or volatility spikes—in near real time. Contextual insight layer: Adds reasoning, as well as historical and statistical analysis, to help investors act swiftly on market opportunities. Deep personalization: Segments notifications and insights for relevant investors based on their interests, activity level, and behavior, optimizing for maximum impact. This intelligent stack enables trading platforms to communicate with users more meaningfully and empowers advisors to speak with confidence about market activity, even in moments not covered by traditional research desks. A Strategic Solution for Platforms and Advisors For trading platforms, SignalWise drives growth by increasing trading volumes, improving retention, and reactivating dormant users with intelligent, event-based triggers. Alerts are fully customizable and can be delivered via push notifications, email, SMS, or in-platform integrations. For financial advisors, SignalWise fills a critical gap between long-term strategy and day-to-day market developments. It provides scalable, compliant, and ready-to-share talking points that position advisors as proactive partners in their clients' investment journey, allowing for a superior customer experience. SignalWise has already shown strong traction in early-stage implementations, validating that it is not just a notification tool, but a conversion and retention engine across multiple user segments: As high as ~15% average click-through rate on market alerts $3 in revenue per notification, driven by increased user activity Noticeable increases in client deposits, directly attributed to alerts BridgeWise plans to extend SignalWise coverage and utility in the coming months, including its integration with Bridget, the world's first AI-powered investment chat that provides regulatory-compliant investment recommendations. About BridgeWise BridgeWise is a global leader in AI-driven investment intelligence, transforming how investors and institutions access and act on financial insights. Through advanced multilingual tools, equity and fund analysis, and transparent AI, BridgeWise empowers over 50 institutional clients and 25 million end users across more than 15 languages. With offices in Singapore, London, Brazil, Thailand, Japan, the US, and Dubai, BridgeWise partners with leading global institutions, including Japan Exchange Group, SIX Swiss Exchange, B3, eToro, TASE, Rakuten, KBank, and Interactive Brokers. More about BridgeWise and SignalWise can be found here. Media contact: Jensen Matthews PR Loredana Matei contact@

Retirement Doesn't Always Go As Planned—Here's 4 Ways To Pivot
Retirement Doesn't Always Go As Planned—Here's 4 Ways To Pivot

Forbes

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Forbes

Retirement Doesn't Always Go As Planned—Here's 4 Ways To Pivot

Plans change. Your retirement date doesn't always arrive when—or how—you expect it. Retirement planning is built on numbers—not just dollars, but dates. When will I retire? At what age can I afford to stop working? Increasingly, longevity risk isn't just about outliving your money. It's also about the risk that the year you planned to retire might not be yours to decide. When I was a young analyst, I worked alongside a senior engineer who embodied every engineer cliché: black glasses, short-sleeve dress shirt with a tie that was too short, and a pocket protector filled with mechanical pencils. He radiated the calm of someone who had everything calculated and figured out. Above his desk, pinned to a bulletin board, was a scrap of graph paper with a number scribbled on it: 11896. After a few weeks, my curiosity got the better of me; I finally asked him what it meant. Looking over his glasses at the graph paper, he said, 'That,' he said with a grin, 'is my retirement date.' Fresh out of grad school, I couldn't imagine retirement, let alone planning for it more than a decade away. But he had it all mapped out—visualized and posted like a mission launch. There's something admirable about that kind of certainty. That kind of certainty makes spreadsheets hum, financial planners smile, and it is a fixed objective that can be quantified with precision. Millions of people have a version of it: a date circled, an age bookmarked, or a vague plan to 'retire at 65.' But for all the timelines, charts, and calculators we throw at retirement, reality often has other plans for our plan. Over the years, I've learned something that every future retiree, adult child, advisor, or employer should remember: Retirement doesn't always arrive when—or how—you expect it. We've been taught to view retirement as a milestone you arrive at right on schedule. A cultural clock chimes at 65, and off you go to travel, golf, or take up pickleball. But in reality, retirement looks a lot more like air travel—subject to delays, getting bumped, reroutes, bad weather, and last-minute changes. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), nearly half (47.5%) of retirees exit the workforce sooner than planned—a figure that's held remarkably steady for over 15 years. Why? Retirement, it turns out, isn't a clean exit. It's messy, often emotional, and frequently out of your control. Early retirement sounds like a dream come true—until it isn't. Someone who retires at 59 instead of 65 loses six prime years of earning, saving, and compounding. They may be forced to tap assets early, turning a 30-year financial plan into a 40-year cash flow puzzle. But beyond the numbers lies something deeper: the emotional transition from 'I am' to 'I was.' Friday at 4:59 PM, you're a mechanic, a teacher, a lawyer, a CEO. At 5:01 PM, you're retired. And that shift—so simple in language—can shake the core of identity. Too many retirees go from professional purpose to passive drift. One report indicates that 28% of retirees experience depression, often fueled by a loss of structure, social interaction, and relevance. On the flip side, some delay retirement for good reasons: financial necessity, meaning, or social connection. According to Gallup, the average expected retirement age has risen from 60 in 1995 to 66 today. But the actual retirement age still hovers around 62, suggesting that plans and reality remain out of sync. For many, staying in the workforce is the new safety net. However, that strategy comes with its own risks, including health surprises, employer buyouts, family caregiving, or burnout. Not every 'I'll work a few more years' plan ends on your terms. The smartest strategy? Ditch the illusion of precision. Embrace adaptability. Here are four pivots that can make retirement planning more resilient: My engineer friend with '11896' taped to the wall had a plan. But as most of us have learned, life introduces variables that our spreadsheets don't anticipate. That's why modern retirement planning must go beyond projections and drawdowns. It has to account for uncertainty, longer life, changing identities, and the need for flexibility and resilience. Whether you retire earlier, later, or somewhere in between, one truth remains: The plan will change. The question is: Will you be ready for the retirement that shows up?

John De Goey is questioning long-held beliefs within the financial services industry
John De Goey is questioning long-held beliefs within the financial services industry

Globe and Mail

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

John De Goey is questioning long-held beliefs within the financial services industry

In the first episode of season two, Brenda speaks with John De Goey, a well-known advisor and author who isn't afraid to question industry norms. John's bold ideas and critical perspective have set him apart from most of his peers in the financial services world. With books like 'The Professional Financial Advisor' and 'Stand Up to the Financial Services Industry,' he pushes for changes that better serve investors. John talks about his upbringing on a southwestern Ontario farm, explains why he thinks advisors paint an overly optimistic picture of the market, and outlines what red flags to look out for when choosing your advisor.

5 lessons for advisors talking retirement with transgender clients
5 lessons for advisors talking retirement with transgender clients

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

5 lessons for advisors talking retirement with transgender clients

Retirement planning with clients is never simply about the numbers, advisors say. That's equally the case when it comes to advising transgender people for retirement. More than 9% of U.S. adults identified as LGBTQ+ in 2024, up 66% from 2020, according to the most recent Gallup poll. Transgender people make up about 14% of all LGBTQ+ Americans and 1.3% of all U.S. adults. As more people openly identify as trans, financial advisors can help their practices and their clients by better understanding some of the unique considerations that come up when advising trans clients. Financial advisors specializing in LGBTQ+ clients often find that retirement planning for transgender individuals isn't fundamentally different from working with others. But staying attuned to a few essential considerations can make what might otherwise be an overwhelming process much smoother. Advisors say that broaching the retirement conversation can be difficult for trans clients whose attention is on more immediate needs, like obtaining gender-affirming surgery or relocating to more accepting places. "For clients who are pre-transition or in transition, I don't think focusing on retirement makes sense," said Lindsey Young, founder of Quiet Wealth in Baltimore, Maryland. "First of all, most trans people pre-transition, they're constantly thinking about transition, and so they can't think longer term because it's constantly on their mind. And when they're in transition, they're thinking about transition a lot more. When people get through transition and they're a lot happier and they feel a lot more stable, then they're in a place where you can start thinking about long-term planning." READ MORE: LGBTQ retirees face specific challenges. Here's how advisors can help For Landon Tan, founder of Query Capital in Brooklyn, New York, potential relocation costs have become an increasingly common consideration for many of his trans clients. "I think as the climate of transphobia increases, there are more people who are leaving their communities to go find a place where they're going to be kind of legally allowed to exist," Tan said. "I also have a lot of clients who are thinking about leaving the country because of the increasing transphobic climate federally as well." Making that move can be a costly but necessary decision for some clients, Tan said. "The decision to move to another country is not really a financial decision, per se, because it's so deeply personal," Tan said. "It … really kind of defines your day-to-day experience of existing. So I definitely talk it over with clients, if they're thinking about it, and then other clients who really know that that's what they want to do, then I would kind of take their lead, and I would point them in the right direction." Financial planning for trans clients can look very different depending on whether they've already transitioned or not, advisors say. Planning for pre-transition clients can involve a variety of financial considerations including and beyond gender-affirming surgeries, Young said. For married clients, transitioning can often result in divorce. And depending on the types of medical procedures a client would like to have, transitioning can involve job disruptions or even necessitate career changes, Young said. "As a financial planner, what you're trying to do is help a person come up with a game plan for … how to go through this transition, because this is typically a multiyear process," Young said. "And so in that respect, I think that helping someone who is transgender go through that, it's a very specific thing." READ MORE: Addressing post-election fears for LGBTQ clients Because of the unique considerations that come with transitioning, Young said pre-transition clients are generally better served by LGBTQ-supportive advisors who have specific knowledge around the factors involved in transitioning. But for clients who have already transitioned, Young said that advisors generally don't encounter many trans-specific issues. "For people who are through transition, there's really no reason why any LGBTQ-supportive advisor can't work with them. [For] most folks who are through … transition, there's not really a lot of issues specific to trans folks," Young said. "There are LGBTQ-specific issues quite frequently, even after transition. But there really isn't any transgender-specific related thing besides, you know, having an understanding [of] the community and the challenges that the community is facing." Even well-intentioned advisors can make mistakes when it comes to using a trans client's chosen name and preferred pronouns. For advisors who may not interact with many trans or nonbinary people in their daily life, learning to use the singular gender-neutral pronoun "they" can be like learning a second language, Tan said. "I have these conversations all the time with people who are trying to be allies to trans people and really struggling to, you know, address people by their chosen name or use their gender pronouns, and they really want to, but they really struggle with it," Tan said. "And I think those are actually skills that get practiced a lot when you are in the queer community, because you know a lot of your friends … use gender-neutral pronouns, and so you just get a ton of practice, so it's very second nature." READ MORE: For Gen Z, retirement feels out of reach. Can advisors bring it closer? "And I think that people who are allies can absolutely improve in that, and they can just set aside time to practice," Tan added. "They don't have a lot of people in their lives who are kind of forcing them to practice, but it is just going to be more of like learning a language, right?" Along with an advisor improving their own skills, Tan said it's important for a firm to build support for trans clients into their infrastructure. On a basic level, that means creating space for things like chosen names and pronouns on a client's profile and displaying those details prominently to make sure the entire advisory team addresses the client in a respectful way. Well-intentioned allyship can also go too far if an advisor ends up attributing everything about a client to their identity as a transgender person, Tan said. For example, an advisor who is overly focused on their client's trans identity could listen to that client talk about a disagreement with a family member and automatically assume that the conflict has to do with them being trans, even if that's totally irrelevant to the situation. "Sometimes when people are allies they will sort of fixate on certain prominent aspects of being trans, or think that everything kind of goes back to their transness," Tan said. "[It's important] to remind yourself to view the person as a whole person. You don't have to deny that they are trans. But … allyship is about showing up and treating someone as a person, and making sure that you're creating an environment where they can feel at home." Planning for retirement with trans clients is often more of an imagination issue than a financial one, advisors say. For pre-transition clients, thinking about retirement can be especially difficult, Young said. But even for clients who have already transitioned, it can be difficult for them to see themselves growing old and needing retirement funds. "I think with all of the anti-trans legislation, it's easy to think … that we don't have a future," Tan said. "And so I think that that is really common, that people are not thinking about the future. And I think it's also a legacy of the AIDS epidemic that it really knocked out an entire generation of elders. I mean, obviously not an entire generation, but there are a lot of voices missing. And I think that can be hard to see your future." READ MORE: LGBTQ Americans are less prepared for and confident about retirement That's especially true for younger trans people, Tan said. Many Generation Z investors broadly are struggling to plan for retirement, disillusioned with the idea that they'll ever be able to quit working. Tan said even his young, trans clients in high-paying jobs are often "shocked" when he tells them that they will be able to retire at 65 after completing a financial plan for them. "It doesn't take nearly as much as people imagine, just because they're so used to thinking that it's not possible, even though they've never really tried to calculate it before," Tan said. "It's just like a fruit dangling from a branch right in front of their face, and they just don't believe that it might exist, and so they don't think that they should reach for it. I really want people to dream of their futures and believe that aging as a queer, trans person is possible."

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