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a day ago
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Dollar and Gold Slide on Hopes of De-Escalation in Israel-Iran Conflict
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.16%. The dollar is under pressure today on an easing of safe-haven demand as stocks rose after Reuters reported that the Iranian government said it is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment levels. Also, President Trump said he is willing to give diplomacy more time and won't decide to strike Iran for another two weeks. In addition, dovish comments today from Fed Governor Waller weighed on the dollar when he said, "I think we have room to bring interest rates down as early as July." The dollar remained lower on the weaker-than-expected Philadelphia Fed business outlook report. Dollar and Gold Slide on Hopes of De-Escalation in Israel-Iran Conflict Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. The US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey was unchanged at -4.0, weaker than expectations of an increase to -1.5. US May leading economic indicators index fell -0.1% m/m, right on expectations, and the sixth consecutive month that the LEI has declined. Fed Governor Waller said, "I think we have room to bring interest rates down as early as July, and then we can see kind of see what happens with inflation." The markets are discounting the chances at 15% for a -25 bp rate cut after the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.10%. The euro is moving higher today due to weakness in the dollar. However, gains in the euro are limited after the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell and after German May producer prices posted their biggest decline in eight months, which were dovish factors for ECB policy. The Eurozone June consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.1 to -15.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to -14.9. German May PPI fell -1.2% y/y, right on expectations and the biggest decline in 8 months. Swaps are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.31%. The yen gave up overnight gains and fell to a 3-week low against the dollar today as an easing of Middle East tensions curbed safe-haven demand for the yen. Reuters reported that the Iranian government said it is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment levels, and President Trump said he's willing to give two weeks to see if diplomacy will work before attacking Iran. Higher T-note yields today are also weighing on the yen. The yen initially moved higher today after Japan's May national CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose more than expected, the most in 16 months, a hawkish factor for BOJ policy. Also, comments from BOJ Governor Ueda were positive for the yen when he said the BOJ will raise the benchmark interest rate if its economic outlook is realized. Japan's May national CPI rose +3.5% y/y, right on expectations. May national CPI ex-fresh food and energy rose +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.2% y/y and the largest increase in 16 months. BOJ Governor Ueda said Japan's real interest rate is significantly low, and the BOJ will raise the benchmark interest rate if its economic outlook is realized. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -21.00 (-0.62%), and July silver (SIN25) is down -0.923 (-2.50%). Precious metals are retreating today, with gold sliding to a one-week low and silver falling sharply to a two-week low. An easing of Middle East tensions sparked long liquidation in precious metals after President Trump signaled he wants to give diplomacy a chance and will wait two weeks before deciding if the US would strike Iran. Precious metals also fell on today's report from Reuters that the Iranian government said it is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment levels, a sign that Iran may want to negotiate its way out of war with the US. In addition, hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Ueda undercut precious metals when he said the BOJ will raise the benchmark interest rate if its economic outlook is realized. Today's dollar weakness is supportive of metals prices. Also, dovish comments today from Fed Governor Waller boosted demand for gold as a store of value when he said, "I think we have room to bring interest rates down as early as July." In addition, Thursday's report from Bloomberg that said senior US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals. Industrial metals demand concerns also weighed on silver prices due to the weaker-than-expected US Jun Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey and the weaker-than-expected UK May retail sales report. Fund buying of silver continues to support prices as silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-1/4 year high Thursday. UK May retail sales ex-auto fuel fell -2.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m and the biggest decline in nearly 1-1/2 years. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Rebounds on Hawkish Powell
The dollar index (DXY00) Wednesday recovered from early losses and rose by +0.09%. The dollar moved higher Wednesday afternoon due to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said, 'We expect a meaningful amount of inflation in the coming months.' Mr. Powell's comments signal the Fed is not close to cutting interest rates and is supportive of the dollar. Also, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East support safe-haven demand for the dollar. The dollar on Wednesday initially moved lower on the weaker-than-expected reports on US May housing starts and building permits. Also, the action by the FOMC to cut its US 2025 GDP forecast was bearish for the dollar. In addition, the FOMC's dot-plot that projects two 25 bp interest rate cuts by the end of the year is negative for the dollar. A Look Ahead at the Fed Dollar Rebounds on Hawkish Powell Dollar Slips Ahead of FOMC Meeting Results Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -5,000 to 245,000, right on expectations. US May housing starts fell -9.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.256 million, weaker than expectations of 1.350 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly fell -2.0% m/m to a 4-3/4 year low of 1.393 million, weaker than expectations of no change at 1.422 million. As expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds target rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% and said the uncertainty about the economic outlook has 'diminished but remains elevated.' The statement removed the language that the committee 'judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.' The FOMC cut its US 2025 GDP estimate to 1.4% from 1.7% in March and raised its 2025 core inflation estimate to 3.1% from 2.8% in March. The Fed's dot plot of interest rate projections shows the median fed funds rate forecast at the end of 2025 at 3.875%, implying two quarter-point cuts this year, the same as they expected in March. Fed Chair Powell said, 'We expect a meaningful amount of inflation in the coming months' as the increases in tariffs are likely to boost prices and that their effects on inflation could be more persistent. The markets are discounting the chances at 10% for a -25 bp rate cut after the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Wednesday fell by -0.04%. The euro on Wednesday gave up an early advance and finished slightly lower due to a rebound in the dollar. The euro was also under pressure Wednesday due to dovish comments from ECB Governing Council member Panetta, who stated that the Eurozone's economic prospects face 'substantial' risks due to US tariffs and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Swaps are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Wednesday fell by -0.09%. The yen posted modest gains on Wednesday as heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East have prompted safe-haven buying of the yen. Wednesday's report showing a smaller-than-expected decline in Japan's Apr core machine orders was also supportive of the yen. The yen fell back from its best level when T-note yields rose on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Japan Apr core machine orders fell -9.1% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -9.5% m/m. Japanese trade news was mixed as Japan's May exports fell -1.7% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -3.7% y/y. However, May imports fell -7.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -5.9% y/y and the biggest decline in 16 months. August gold (GCQ25) Wednesday closed up +1.20 (+0.04%), and July silver (SIN25) closed down -0.238 (-0.64%). Precious metals on Wednesday settled mixed. Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East support safe-haven demand for precious metals as the war between Israel and Iran continues for a sixth day with no end in sight. In addition, global trade uncertainty is boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump indicated last Wednesday that he is moving ahead with his reciprocal tariffs. Fund buying of silver continues to support prices as silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-1/4 year high Tuesday. Wednesday's recovery in the dollar from early losses to higher on the day undercut precious metals prices. Also, gold prices fell more than -$10 an ounce in after-hours trading Wednesday afternoon due to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said, 'We expect a meaningful amount of inflation in the coming months' due to tariffs. Silver prices also fell back after the FOMC cut its US 2025 GDP forecast and following Wednesday's weaker-than-expected reports on US May housing starts and building permits, which showed weakness in industrial metals demand. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Rallies as Middle East Tensions Intensify and Stocks Fall
The dollar index (DXY00) Tuesday rose by +0.83%. The dollar moved higher on Tuesday on an increase in liquidity demand for the dollar as stocks fell after President Trump downplayed the chance of an early end to the Israel-Iran war and said he wants "unconditional surrender" from Iran. Gains in the dollar accelerated Tuesday afternoon on an increase in safe-haven demand as President Trump was set to meet his national security team, fueling speculation that the US may be on the verge of joining the attack against Iran. The dollar rallied Tuesday despite weaker-than-expected US retail sales and NAHB housing market reports. The dollar continues to be undercut by expectations of weaker US economic growth and reduced foreign investment in the US caused by President Trump's tariffs. Dollar Rallies as Middle East Tensions Intensify and Stocks Fall Weak Stocks Boost Liquidity Demand for the Dollar Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. US May retail sales fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m. May retail sales ex-autos unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m versus expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase. The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.2% m/m, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. The US June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -2 to a 2-1/2 year low of 32, weaker than expectations of an increase to 36. President Trump played down the chance of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war when he said that he hasn't reached out to Iran for peace talks "in any way, shape or form" and that a "permanent end and not a ceasefire" to the nuclear dispute with Iran would be the goal. The markets are discounting the chances at 0% for a -25 bp rate cut after the Tue-Wed FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Tuesday fell by -0.72%. The euro retreated Tuesday due to a stronger dollar. Also, dovish comments Tuesday from ECB Governing Council member Stournaras weighed on the euro when he said the ECB may proceed with additional interest rate cuts if economic growth and inflation slow more than expected. The euro fell despite the German June ZEW survey expectations of economic growth climbing more than expected. The German June ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index rose +22.3 to 47.5, stronger than expectations of 35.0. ECB Governing Council member Stournaras said the ECB has found "equilibrium" on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, but "if the Eurozone economy weakens further, if inflation decreases further below the target, then we may proceed to further rate cuts." Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Tuesday rose by +0.42%. The yen on Tuesday gave up overnight gains and turned lower after the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged as expected and after BOJ Governor Ueda said he couldn't comment on the possibility of a rate hike coming in the near term. The yen initially moved higher against the dollar Tuesday on increased safe-haven demand after President Trump downplayed the possibility of an early end to the Israel-Iran war. Also, Tuesday's action by the BOJ to cut its bond purchases for Q3 was supportive of the yen. In addition, lower T-note yields on Tuesday are bullish for the yen. As expected, the BOJ voted 9-0 to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and voted to cut its Q3 monthly bond purchases to 3.705 trillion yen from 4.105 trillion yen in Q2. The BOJ also announced it will trim its monthly bond purchases from April 2026 at a quarterly pace of 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) from the current 400 billion yen. BOJ Governor Ueda said he can't comment on the possibility of a rate hike coming in the near term, and any move in interest rates will hinge on the BOJ's assessment of the economic data. August gold (GCQ25) Tuesday closed down -10.40 (-0.30%), and July silver (SIN25) closed up +0.703 (+1.93%). Precious metals on Tuesday settled mixed, with silver soaring to a 13-year high. Tuesday's dollar strength was negative for precious metals. Gold prices were also pressured after the BOJ announced it was cutting its bond purchases for Q3. Precious metals have safe-haven support from Middle East hostilities after President Trump today downplayed the chance of an early end to the Israel-Iran war and said he wants "unconditional surrender" from Iran. Also, lower global bond yields Tuesday were supportive of precious metals. In addition, global trade uncertainty is boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump indicated last Wednesday that he is moving ahead with his reciprocal tariffs. Gold garnered some support Tuesday as an inflation hedge after the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1-week high. Silver garnered support Tuesday after US May manufacturing production rose as expected, and after the German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose more than expected, positive factors for industrial metals demand. Silver prices added to their gains Tuesday on technical buying after prices posted a new 13-year high. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Slips Ahead of FOMC Meeting Results
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.21%. The dollar is under pressure ahead of the results of today's 2-day FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The dollar dipped to its lows today on the weaker-than-expected reports on US May housing starts and building permits. Losses in the dollar are contained as heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East support safe-haven demand for the dollar. US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -5,000 to 245,000, right on expectations. Sprott Stock Glitters Like Gold Dollar Rallies as Middle East Tensions Intensify and Stocks Fall A Look Ahead at the Fed Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! US May housing starts fell -9.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.256 million, weaker than expectations of 1.350 million. May building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly fell -2.0% m/m to a 4-3/4 year low of 1.393 million, weaker than expectations of no change at 1.422 million. The markets are discounting the chances at 0% for a -25 bp rate cut after today's FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.29%. The euro is moving higher today due to weakness in the dollar. Gains in the euro are limited due to dovish comments from ECB Governing Council member Panetta, who stated that the Eurozone's economic prospects face "substantial" risks due to US tariffs and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.29%. The yen is climbing today as heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East have prompted safe-haven buying of the yen. Today's report showing a smaller-than-expected decline in Japan's Apr core machine orders is also supportive of the yen. In addition, lower T-note yields today are bullish for the yen. Japan Apr core machine orders fell -9.1% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -9.5% m/m. Japanese trade news was mixed as Japan's May exports fell -1.7% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -3.7% y/y. However, May imports fell -7.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -5.9% y/y and the biggest decline in 16 months. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -2.90 (-0.09%), and July silver (SIN25) is down -0.146 (-0.39%). Precious metals today are slightly lower. Expectations that the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged following today's 2-day policy meeting are weighing on precious metals. Today's weaker-than-expected reports on US May housing starts and building permits show weakness in industrial metals demand and are undercutting silver prices. Lower global bond yields and a weaker dollar today are limiting losses in precious metals. Also, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East support safe-haven demand for precious metals as the war between Israel and Iran continues for a sixth day with no end in sight. In addition, global trade uncertainty is boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump indicated last Wednesday that he is moving ahead with his reciprocal tariffs. Gold garnered some support today as an inflation hedge after the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high. Fund buying of silver continues to support prices as silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-1/4 year high Tuesday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Free Malaysia Today
13-06-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Dollar and other safe havens rise as Israel strikes Iran
The dollar index hit multi-year lows earlier in the week as investors shrugged off the US-China trade truce. (EPA Images pic) NEW YORK : The US dollar rallied alongside the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc, with currency markets abruptly reversing direction on news Israel had launched strikes on Iran. Israel has begun carrying out strikes on Iran, two US officials told Reuters, adding that there was no US assistance or involvement in the operation. Another report suggested that explosions were heard northeast of Iran's capital Tehran. An index that measures the dollar against six other currencies gained 0.4%, and was last at 98.07, in early Asia trading. Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.35% to 143 per dollar, while the Swiss franc tumbled 0.39% to 0.807 per dollar. Risk-sensitive Asian currencies such as the Aussie dollar and the New Zealand dollar weakened 0.9% each. Earlier in the week, the dollar index hit multi-year lows as investors were not impressed by a US-China trade truce, while cooler-than-expected inflation data fuelled expectations of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The dollar is on track for weekly declines against the yen, the Swiss franc and the euro. Crude prices LCOc1 jumped more than US$4 on the news as investors priced in potential supply disruptions from the oil-rich region, while gold prices climbed 0.8% to their strongest since early May.
