Latest news with #currency
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Currency Traders Are Ditching Dollar for Euro on Options Bets
(Bloomberg) -- The euro is taking on a bigger role in the global currency options market as traders skirt around the dollar given the risks from unpredictable US policy and a global trade war. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown There's been a shift in trading volumes. Around 15% to 30% of contracts tied to the dollar versus major currencies were switched to the euro, looking at data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation for the first five months of this year versus the final five months of 2024. There are also signs the euro is being used as a haven — traditionally the dollar's role — and for bets on big moves. While deals involving the dollar still dominate in the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency market, this could be early evidence that the greenback is facing greater competition as the world's reserve currency. Traders are sidestepping the dollar after its biggest slump in years, with Europe's common currency looking like a key beneficiary as the region's markets benefit from billions in government stimulus spending. 'If we're moving to an environment in which the European flow story is more important, then we could be moving to an environment in which it's euro pairs which are driving everything,' said Oliver Brennan, options strategist at BNP Paribas SA. So far this year, Europe's common currency has rallied 11% against the dollar, hitting its highest since 2021 at above $1.16. Meanwhile the dollar has slid against every major currency, with a gauge down over 7% to its lowest since 2022. That's undermining trust in US assets. And the slump may not be over yet. Hedge fund heavyweight Paul Tudor Jones just predicted another 10% drop for the dollar over the next year. Risk reversals, a gauge of options sentiment, are becoming increasingly negative on the dollar against the yen, whereas they are turning less bearish on euro-yen — a 'really important signal' on the euro for Brennan. As markets question the dollar's stability, implied volatility in the euro against the yen is looking the calmest in nearly four years relative to swings between the greenback and Japanese currency. 'The market is thinking that dollar-yen will be more volatile than euro-yen in a negative market shock, which is the opposite to how the market has traded these events in the past,' said Brennan. 'If that's the thinking, then it means the market sees the euro as more of a safe haven than the dollar.' The cost of options is also a driver, said Ben Ford, currency strategist at Macro Hive. While implied volatility generally has eased after spiking in April's market chaos, it stands at nearly 11% over three months for dollar-yen, compared with under 9% for euro-yen. 'The market is finding cheaper ways to express its view, especially given the view is probably for euro outperformance,' Ford said. Traders also seem to be favoring the euro over the dollar when it comes to hedging or betting on big directional moves on the yen. That's evident in so-called 10-delta fly spreads, a gauge of demand for outsized swings, where the gap between euro-yen and dollar-yen has been steadily widening since April. Of course, the dollar has been written off many times before. Just at the start of this year, the euro was languishing near parity with the greenback, with many investors certain the common currency's value would fall below its US peer. Instead Trump's April's tariff announcements saw investors dump dollar assets. While US stocks have recovered since then, the dollar risk premium remains elevated, and it may require a return to US exceptionalism to reverse the trend, according to Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Meanwhile the European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde has called on policymakers to seize the moment and increase the euro's global profile. 'There's a push and a pull — the pull has been that there's potentially more safe assets to buy in Europe and more growth expectations in Europe,' said BNP's Brennan. 'And the push has been tariff uncertainty, risks to US exceptionalism, and the macro story.' Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? How a Tiny Middleman Could Access Two-Factor Login Codes From Tech Giants ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Reuters
6 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Kenyan shilling flat Vs dollar
NAIROBI, June 20 (Reuters) - The Kenyan shilling was flat against the dollar on Friday from the previous session, data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) showed. At 0717 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.00/129.50, same level as Thursday's close.
Bloomberg
6 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Currency Traders Are Ditching Dollar for Euro on Options Bets
The euro is taking on a bigger role in the global currency options market as traders skirt around the dollar given the risks from unpredictable US policy and a global trade war. There's been a shift in trading volumes. Around 15% to 30% of contracts tied to the dollar versus major currencies were switched to the euro, looking at data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation for the first five months of this year versus the final five months of 2024. There are also signs the euro is being used as a haven — traditionally the dollar's role — and for bets on big moves.
Bloomberg
6 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Hong Kong Dollar Drops to Weak End of Its Fixed Trading Range
The Hong Kong dollar dropped to the weak end of its fixed trading range against the greenback, as cheap funding costs encouraged investors to borrow it and buy the US currency. The city's dollar weakened to trade briefly at 7.85 against its US equivalent on Friday, for the first time since 2023, according to traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they weren't authorized to speak publicly. It has tumbled over 1% from an early May high when it touched the strong end of its 7.75-to-7.85 permitted range against the US dollar.
Malay Mail
13 hours ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
Ringgit rises in uncertain waters as markets eye Iran-Israel tensions
KUALA LUMPUR, June 20 — The ringgit opened higher against the US dollar on Friday as investors remained in cautious mode amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, said an analyst. At 8 am, the local note rose to 4.2490/2700 against the greenback from yesterday's close of 4.2590/2625. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said market sentiment will likely be cautious as traders and investors watch the evolving Israel-Iran conflict, while the US is considering its response to the currency pressures. 'Still, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering below 100 points signals that traders may be going to different major currencies or asset classes to seek protection,' he told Bernama. However, in light of the heightened uncertainties, Mohd Afzanizam said the ringgit could remain weak in the near term. At the opening, the ringgit traded mostly lower against a basket of major currencies. It declined versus the British pound to 5.7264/7547 from 5.7164/7211 at Thursday's close and fell against the euro to 4.8910/9152 from 4.8868/8908 previously. However, it was slightly higher against the Japanese yen at 2.9257/9404 from 2.9286/9312 previously. Conversely, the local note trended higher against its Asean counterparts. It appreciated against the Singapore dollar to 3.3051/3219 from 3.3072/3102 at yesterday's close, climbed to 12.9883/13.0593 from 12.9966/13.0513 versus the Thai baht, inched up vis-a-vis the Indonesian rupiah to 258.9/260.3 from 259.5/259.9 and gained against the Philippine peso to 7.39/7.44 from 7.41/7.42. — Bernama
