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BBC News
a day ago
- Science
- BBC News
Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn
EPA The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions. That's the stark warning from more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming. Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change. But countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests - leaving that international goal in peril. Climate change has already worsened many weather extremes - such as the UK's 40C heat in July 2022 - and has rapidly raised global sea levels, threatening coastal communities. "Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. "We're seeing some unprecedented changes and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well." These changes "have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions", he added. At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the most important planet-warming gas - for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C. But by the start of 2025 this so-called "carbon budget" had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new study. That reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific estimates. If global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted. This could commit the world to breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, the researchers say, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later. Last year was the first on record when global average air temperatures were more than 1.5C above those of the late 1800s. A single 12-month period isn't considered a breach of the Paris agreement, however, with the record heat of 2024 given an extra boost by natural weather patterns. But human-caused warming was by far the main reason for last year's high temperatures, reaching 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers estimate. This current rate of warming is about 0.27C per decade – much faster than anything in the geological record. And if emissions stay high, the planet is on track to reach 1.5C of warming on that metric around the year 2030. After this point, long-term warming could, in theory, be brought back down by sucking large quantities of CO2 back out of the atmosphere. But the authors urge caution on relying on these ambitious technologies serving as a get-out-of-jail card. "For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today's emissions," warned Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London. 'Every fraction of warming' matters The study is filled with striking statistics highlighting the magnitude of the climate change that has already happened. Perhaps the most notable is the rate at which extra heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system, known as "Earth's energy imbalance" in scientific jargon. Over the past decade or so, this rate of heating has been more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than the late 2000s and 2010s. "That's a really large number, a very worrying number" over such a short period, said Dr Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office, and associate professor at the University of Bristol. The recent uptick is fundamentally due to greenhouse gas emissions, but a reduction in the cooling effect from small particles called aerosols has also played a role. This extra energy has to go somewhere. Some goes into warming the land, raising air temperatures, and melting the world's ice. But about 90% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans. That not only means disruption to marine life but also higher sea levels: warmer ocean waters take up more space, in addition to the extra water that melting glaciers are adding to our seas. The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide. PA Media While this all paints a bleak picture, the authors note that the rate of emissions increases appears to be slowing as clean technologies are rolled out. They argue that "rapid and stringent" emissions cuts are more important than ever. The Paris target is based on very strong scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change would be far greater at 2C of warming than at 1.5C. That has often been oversimplified as meaning below 1.5C of warming is "safe" and above 1.5C "dangerous". In reality, every extra bit of warming increases the severity of many weather extremes, ice melt and sea-level rise. "Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," said Prof Rogelj. "Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire," he added. Sign up for our Future Earth newsletter to keep up with the latest climate and environment stories with the BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside the UK? Sign up to our international newsletter here.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Science
- Yahoo
Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn
The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions. That's the stark warning from more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming. Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change. But countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests - leaving that international goal in peril. "Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. "We're seeing some unprecedented changes and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well." These changes "have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions", he added. At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the most important planet-warming gas - for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C. But by the start of 2025 this so-called "carbon budget" had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new study. That reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific estimates. If global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted. This could commit the world to breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, the researchers say, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later. Last year was the first on record when global average air temperatures were more than 1.5C above those of the late 1800s. A single 12-month period isn't considered a breach of the Paris agreement, however, with the record heat of 2024 given an extra boost by natural weather patterns. But human-caused warming was by far the main reason for last year's high temperatures, reaching 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers estimate. This current rate of warming is about 0.27C per decade – much faster than anything in the geological record. And if emissions stay high, the planet is on track to reach 1.5C of warming on that metric around the year 2030. After this point, long-term warming could, in theory, be brought back down by sucking large quantities of CO2 back out of the atmosphere. But the authors urge caution on relying on these ambitious technologies serving as a get-out-of-jail card. "For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today's emissions," warned Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London. The study is filled with striking statistics highlighting the magnitude of the climate change that has already happened. Perhaps the most notable is the rate at which extra heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system, known as "Earth's energy imbalance" in scientific jargon. Over the past decade or so, this rate of heating has been more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than the late 2000s and 2010s. "That's a really large number, a very worrying number" over such a short period, said Dr Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office, and associate professor at the University of Bristol. The recent uptick is fundamentally due to greenhouse gas emissions, but a reduction in the cooling effect from small particles called aerosols has also played a role. This extra energy has to go somewhere. Some goes into warming the land, raising air temperatures, and melting the world's ice. But about 90% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans. That not only means disruption to marine life but also higher sea levels: warmer ocean waters take up more space, in addition to the extra water that melting glaciers are adding to our seas. The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide. While this all paints a bleak picture, the authors note that the rate of emissions increases appears to be slowing as clean technologies are rolled out. They argue that "rapid and stringent" emissions cuts are more important than ever. The Paris target is based on very strong scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change would be far greater at 2C of warming than at 1.5C. That has often been oversimplified as meaning below 1.5C of warming is "safe" and above 1.5C "dangerous". In reality, every extra bit of warming increases the severity of many weather extremes, ice melt and sea-level rise. "Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," said Prof Rogelj. "Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire," he added. A simple guide to climate change What is the Paris climate agreement? 2024 first year to pass 1.5C global warming limit Coastlines in danger even if climate target met, scientists warn Sign up for our Future Earth newsletter to keep up with the latest climate and environment stories with the BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside the UK? Sign up to our international newsletter here.
BBC News
2 days ago
- Science
- BBC News
Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, top scientists warn
The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide the stark warning from more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests - leaving that international goal in peril. "Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds."We're seeing some unprecedented changes and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well."These changes "have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions", he the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the most important planet-warming gas - for a 50% chance of keeping warming to by the start of 2025 this so-called "carbon budget" had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is could commit the world to breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, the researchers say, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later. Last year was the first on record when global average air temperatures were more than 1.5C above those of the late 1800s.A single 12-month period isn't considered a breach of the Paris agreement, however, with the record heat of 2024 given an extra boost by natural weather human-caused warming was by far the main reason for last year's high temperatures, reaching 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers current rate of warming is about 0.27C per decade – much faster than anything in the geological if emissions stay high, the planet is on track to reach 1.5C of warming on that metric around the year this point, long-term warming could, in theory, be brought back down by sucking large quantities of CO2 back out of the the authors urge caution on relying on these ambitious technologies serving as a get-out-of-jail card."For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today's emissions," warned Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London. 'Every fraction of warming' matters The study is filled with striking statistics highlighting the magnitude of the climate change that has already the most notable is the rate at which extra heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system, known as "Earth's energy imbalance" in scientific the past decade or so, this rate of heating has been more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than the late 2000s and 2010s."That's a really large number, a very worrying number" over such a short period, said Dr Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office, and associate professor at the University of recent uptick is fundamentally due to greenhouse gas emissions, but a reduction in the cooling effect from small particles called aerosols has also played a extra energy has to go somewhere. Some goes into warming the land, raising air temperatures, and melting the world's about 90% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans. That not only means disruption to marine life but also higher sea levels: warmer ocean waters take up more space, in addition to the extra water that melting glaciers are adding to our rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide. While this all paints a bleak picture, the authors note that the rate of emissions increases appears to be slowing as clean technologies are rolled argue that "rapid and stringent" emissions cuts are more important than Paris target is based on very strong scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change would be far greater at 2C of warming than at has often been oversimplified as meaning below 1.5C of warming is "safe" and above 1.5C "dangerous".In reality, every extra bit of warming increases the severity of many weather extremes, ice melt and sea-level rise."Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," said Prof Rogelj."Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire," he added. Sign up for our Future Earth newsletter to keep up with the latest climate and environment stories with the BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside the UK? Sign up to our international newsletter here.
BBC News
2 days ago
- Climate
- BBC News
Will heatwaves become our new normal?
The world is getting hotter, and the rate of temperature rise is faster than at any point in recorded history. According to climate scientists at NASA, external, the speed of change since the mid-20th century is a weather forecaster I'm all too aware how we are already feeling the impact of higher temperatures. What would have been a 'hot' day 30 years ago, would now be considered pretty normal - during our cooler spells people often tell me they feel 'hard-done by'. Whilst it is nice to be the bearer of 'good' weather news, it is becoming harder to report on heatwaves as a good news story without talking about the bigger picture of our changing climate and addressing the impact it is having on our lives In the filming of 'Heatwaves: The New Normal' I had the chance to delve deeper into the issues facing us as a society about coping with spells of extreme heat. From the physical impacts on our bodies, to rethinking the way we build our homes, to exacerbating the spread of wildfires - this issue affects so many aspects of our lives. How often do we see extreme heat in the UK? The average global temperature has risen by just over 1.1C since the pre-industrial era. This might not sound like a lot but it is enough to drive a large increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves. In the UK, a number of major heatwaves have occurred in recent years, including during the record-breaking summer of July 2022 in which we saw the first official recording of temperatures exceeding 40°C.I was working at the BBC Weather Centre when we hit that record temperature. A national emergency was declared and The Met Office issued the first Red Extreme Heat Warning. It was something I never thought I would experience during my heatwave of summer 2022 was described by the Met Office as "a milestone in UK climate history" and deemed "virtually impossible" without human-induced climate fact the Met Office says that heatwaves are now 30 times more likely than before the industrial revolution and are projected to potentially occur every other year by the 2050s. How do our bodies handle this heat? Like many people, I love getting outside to walk or run, and I was interested to know what effect higher temperatures would have on me doing these things I love.I visited Loughborough University and had the chance to try out their heat chambers which can simulate a range of weather conditions.I got a taste of how it felt to exercise in temperatures of up to 40C - simulating the UK's hottest ever day - whilst running on a treadmill. It was an eye opening heart rate increased rapidly and I started to feel really thirsty and exhausted as my body tried to process the extra heat. I experienced a very mild taste of how 'heat stress' can affect the body - and see just how anyone and everyone can become vulnerable very quickly. The impact of extreme heat on drought and the spread of wildfires Of course it is not just the body that extreme heat affects. Droughts and wildfires can also be associated with factors affect droughts. Scientists are still studying the links between human-induced climate change and the risk of drought events. What we do know is that extreme heat increases evaporation of moisture from the ground leading to drier ground. Drier ground heats up more quickly, which in turn pushes the temperature of the air above it even the UK's warmest and sunniest spring on record, and the driest in more than 130 years, drought has been officially declared by the Environment Agency in north-west England and Yorkshire. Much of Scotland is experiencing moderate or significant water scarcity, and Welsh Water have also declared a drought developing zone for parts of the end of April this year the area of the UK burnt by wildfires was already higher than any year for more than a decade. During filming, I saw first hand the devastation caused, fuelled by dried out vegetation. Scientists expect the UK to see an increase in weather conditions conducive to extreme wildfires as the temperature increases, even though there's variation from year to year.A study led by the Met Office, external, found that the extreme "fire weather" that helped spread the destructive blazes of July 2022 when we experienced those record breaking temperatures were made at least six times more likely by human-caused climate change.
Irish Times
02-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Scientists accuse Ireland and New Zealand of using ‘accounting trick' to justify livestock emissions
Leading climate scientists have accused politicians in New Zealand and Ireland of using an 'accounting trick' to back their sheep and cattle industries, warning their support for methane-emitting livestock could undermine global efforts to fight climate change . In an open letter shared with the Financial Times, 26 climate scientists from around the world warned that New Zealand's proposed new methane targets risk setting a dangerous precedent. Scientists have separately raised concerns about Ireland's approach. Governments with large livestock sectors, including those of Ireland and New Zealand, are increasingly using a new method for calculating methane's effect on climate change, which estimates its contribution to warming based on how emissions are changing relative to a baseline. This differs from the long-established approach, which compares the total warming impact of a given mass of methane to the same mass of CO₂ over a 100-year period. READ MORE Proponents argue the newer method, known as global warming potential star (GWP*), better reflects methane's shortlived nature in the atmosphere compared to the long-lasting effects of CO₂. But scientists warn that some governments are misapplying it to justify 'no additional warming' targets, which allow emissions to remain flat rather than decline — potentially enabling high levels of methane emissions and climate damage to continue. 'It's like saying 'I'm pouring 100 barrels of pollution into this river, and it's killing life. If I then go and pour just 90 barrels, then I should get credited for that',' said Paul Behrens, global professor of environmental change at Oxford university and a signatory of the letter. Drew Shindell, professor of climate science at Duke University and another signatory, said assessing future emissions purely in terms of the difference from current levels can amount to an 'accounting trick' when misused. That 'lets you off the hook, and 'grandfathers in' any emissions that are already going on', he said. New Zealand and Ireland are among the world's highest per capita agricultural methane emitters, largely due to their export-focused meat and dairy industries. In New Zealand, agriculture accounts for nearly half of total greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from livestock. Ireland's agriculture sector is its largest emitter, with dairy cows producing significantly more methane per animal than beef cattle. The scientists' letter argues the approach preferred by Dublin and Wellington could set a precedent, allowing other countries to justify minimal reductions in methane emissions and jeopardising commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement as well as the Global Methane Pledge, which was launched in 2021. Paul Price, a climate change researcher at Dublin City University, said Ireland needs sharp near-term cuts in agricultural methane to have any chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, as called for under the Paris Agreement. Instead, he said, the country is expanding production — 'exactly the opposite' of what's needed. While herd sizes have declined elsewhere in Europe, the number of dairy cows in Ireland has increased over the past 15 years, according to the country's state agricultural research agency. New Zealand is expected to formalise new methane targets later this year, following a government-commissioned review suggesting reductions of 14 to 24 per cent by 2050 would suffice under the 'no additional warming' goal. This is lower than the 35-47 per cent cuts recommended by the country's Climate Change Commission. The governments of Ireland and New Zealand did not respond to requests for comment. Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at Oxford university's physics department and one of the scientists behind GWP*, said governments — not scientists — must decide whether farmers should undo past warming from herd growth. He supported separate targets for methane and CO₂, calling the older approach 'a dodgy speedometer' that overstated the warming impact of constant methane emissions and was slow to reflect the impact of changes. But scientists behind the letter said that the weaker methane target could act as a tool to justify richer and higher-emitting countries failing to lead the way in cutting emissions. 'If you're a rich farmer that happens to have a lot of cows, then you can keep those cows forever,' said Shindell. This approach 'penalises anybody who's not already a big player in agriculture', including 'poor farmers in Africa that are trying to feed a growing population'. —Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
