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The U.S. Gave Up Its Lead in Clean Energy Sectors Before. It Might Be Doing It Again.
The U.S. Gave Up Its Lead in Clean Energy Sectors Before. It Might Be Doing It Again.

Wall Street Journal

time10 hours ago

  • Business
  • Wall Street Journal

The U.S. Gave Up Its Lead in Clean Energy Sectors Before. It Might Be Doing It Again.

The U.S. is the world leader in clean hydrogen and carbon-capture production, but President Trump's move to roll back green-energy subsidies could mean giving up that position to rivals. It wouldn't be the first time the country has fallen from the top spot in the clean-energy sector. Right now, the U.S. is the unambiguous leader in just a few energy-transition technologies, said Julio Friedmann, chief scientist at Carbon Direct, a consulting firm focusing on decarbonization. 'We have surrendered leadership on EVs, on batteries, on wind and on nuclear,' Friedmann said, adding the U.S. was also once a key player in solar energy. 'In all these cases we had led significantly, and we abdicated that leadership.' The Manhattan Project played a crucial role in the advancement of nuclear energy. The first practical solar cell was developed by Bell Labs in the 50s. The first large-scale wind farm was built in California in the 80s. In the 90s, the U.S. led the world on electric-vehicle battery development—in 2008, Tesla made the first EV able to travel more than 200 miles. More recently, under the Biden administration, a combination of tax credits, subsidies and grants have helped the U.S. to take the lead in clean hydrogen and carbon capture, even as China remains the largest producer of clean energy overall. According to a study published last year by consulting firm group McKinsey & Co., North America is set to produce 52% of the world's clean hydrogen by 2030, while China is on course for 30%. When it comes to carbon capture and storage technology, nearly half of all projects are set to be based in North America by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, with Europe next highest with 31% of projects. Most of the North American projects are in the U.S., largely in Republican States and counties. But over the past month, the Trump administration has set about rolling back Biden's incentives, canceling grants and removing tax credits that helped to spur production across the country. 'On their current course, the administration will again abdicate leadership,' Friedmann said. Last month, Energy Secretary Chris Wright moved to cut $3.7 billion of grants and subsidies authorized under the previous administration that were designed to get clean-energy projects off the ground. Those included a carbon capture and storage project in Indiana, plastics recycling projects in Texas and a green cement project in California. Under the 'Big Beautiful Bill' proposal, hydrogen tax credits are set to end by the end of the year and clean-energy tax credits face a de facto repeal for projects coming online next year and in 2027. The Trump administration said the technologies were costly, burdening ratepayers and consumers, calling the sector a scam. Gregory Nemet, author of the book 'How Solar Energy Became Cheap,' likened the current rollback to policies that were put in place by President Richard Nixon but rolled back in 1981 by President Ronald Reagan, when subsidies for solar were axed. The U.S. had been the leader in solar technologies, thanks to research from NASA. But withdrawal in government-led support meant the industry moved abroad, he said. 'That was the end of the line for the U.S. solar industry for quite a while. Japan picked it up, then Germany, then China,' Nemet said. Currently, China dominates production of solar equipment, making up nearly 75% of modules, 85% of cells and 97% of wafer production, according to data from the International Energy Agency. It is a similar situation in batteries, with 70% of all electric vehicle batteries ever produced coming from China. 'The main loss is the reset in market expectations,' Nemet added. 'There was a market for clean technologies that was huge and growing. If you were going to make a long-term investment based on long-term incentives, the last four years was meant to build that and this is a pretty big setback to those incentives.' For carbon capture and storage in particular, a number of startups like Climeworks, Heirloom and Air Products had looked to base their first-of-a-kind plants in the U.S. That was in part because of its favorable geography, including plentiful underground storage, but also because of the funding and research on offer at America's universities. 'The U.S. federal government began investing in technologies like direct air capture back in 2015, 2016, way before anyone else was thinking about this, and it really led in public investment and innovation,' said Giana Amador, executive director at the Carbon Removal Alliance, a non profit promoting carbon removals. She said this led to companies wanting 'to build their first-of-a-kind projects here, and doing so in partnership with the federal government and in particular the Department of Energy.' Amador pointed to programs like the 45Q tax credit, the carbon negative shot pilots program, and other policies that support carbon removal. But climate startups in the clean energy sector have already started to feel the effects of Trump's push against clean tech. Battery recycler Li-Cycle has filed for bankruptcy, while job cuts have been seen at direct air capture startups Climeworks and Heirloom. Meanwhile, Group14, a Seattle-based silicon-battery maker said it was delaying opening its battery factory in Moses Lake, Washington, due to uncertainty over Trump's tariffs. Share prices have fallen sharply too, with hydrogen startup Plug Power down about 50% this year. Industrial-gases supplier Air Products & Chemicals had planned to build a $4.5 billion hydrogen facility in Louisiana, but that project price tag has now ballooned to $8 billion, the construction timeline has slipped and the company is still seeking customers. Similarly, Nel Hydrogen has hit the brakes on a $400 million factory in suburban Detroit, due to policy uncertainty. 'This is an investment in the U.S. going forward and that's got to be in the mind of those who are making final decisions,' said Frank Wolak, president of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association. 'If we don't make this investment now, we will be looking at more and more Chinese and even European activities, and you won't be able to recover that ground. This is an investment in the U.S. future.' For local policymakers, the move to push back against green energy production has also resulted in thousands of job cuts. So far 45 announced projects have been canceled, closed or downsized resulting in 20,000 jobs being lost and $16.7 billion in investments abandoned according to environmental policy advocacy group E2. Of those, 72% of all jobs and 82% of investments were located in Republican congressional districts, E2 added. One of the other notable parts of the previous policy program was that it also had strong backing from fossil fuel, chemicals and other heavy polluting industries. The axed projects by Energy Secretary Wright included carbon capture and hydrogen proposals from Exxon Mobil, Eastman and Heidelberg Cement. 'With the current situation, the whole of this is in jeopardy,' said Sunita Satyapal, former Director of the U.S. DOE's hydrogen and fuel cell office. She said that in particular the 45V tax credit had made U.S. hydrogen production some of the cheapest in the world — an important driver in jump-starting the industry and encouraging industries to use the fuel source. 'Regardless of the technology, industry always needs a runway before take off and that is what subsidies provide.' Satyapal added that in the wake of the U.S.'s possible move away from the sector, regions like Canada and China could stand to benefit. China already makes up 65% of global electrolyser capacity, a key component in hydrogen production. Meanwhile, Canada's new Prime Minister Mark Carney has indicated supporting carbon capture projects tied with oil production. 'Companies are going to go where business is most favorable and I think that that in itself is a policy choice,' Carbon Removal Alliance's Amador said. 'The U.S. is at this critical window where we either continue to create a market and a policy environment that helps companies scale solutions here, or we give up that leadership and let other countries take the helm.' Write to Yusuf Khan at

Japan seeks gas past 2050, with AI and data centers set to lift demand
Japan seeks gas past 2050, with AI and data centers set to lift demand

Japan Times

time15 hours ago

  • Business
  • Japan Times

Japan seeks gas past 2050, with AI and data centers set to lift demand

Japan is encouraging energy importers to secure liquefied natural gas (LNG) past 2050 — the deadline the second-biggest buyer of the fossil fuel has set itself for net zero emissions. Several of the country's largest LNG buyers are considering 20-year supply deals with projects that would start after 2030, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, who asked not to be named as the negotiations are private. They aim to deploy technology such as carbon capture and storage to mitigate the emissions from burning the super-chilled fossil fuel under Japan's national target. The government expects a boom in artificial intelligence, data centers and semiconductor chip-making factories to revive power demand, which has been tracking a declining population for years. It sees LNG as vital to energy security, even as it works on increasing renewable energy generation and restarting nuclear reactors idled after the 2011 Fukushima No. 1 disaster. "During the transition period toward carbon neutrality by 2050, we believe LNG will continue to play an important role,' Nobuhiro Sugesawa, a senior managing executive officer at Tokyo Gas, said in an interview. "Even with 15- or 20-year contracts, long-term contracts should remain a core part of our strategy.' In order to adhere to climate commitments and continue using gas-fired power plants, companies are looking to use carbon capture systems or mix the fuel with green ammonia and hydrogen. These technologies have yet to be deployed on a significant scale in Japan. The state-backed Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security is providing financial support for importers seeking to invest in overseas LNG projects but is also assisting with negotiations, said Hiroyuki Mori, an executive vice president at the organization. "We have to also take care of environmental issues,' like methane emissions control or carbon capture, he said. Japan will require about 74 million metric tons of LNG by fiscal year 2040 if it only curbs greenhouse gas emissions by 61% from 2013 levels, the trade ministry said in an estimate released earlier this year. Japan imported 65 million metric tons last calendar year, according to ship-tracking data. The companies are also looking for LNG supply that is flexible, like that being offered from the U.S. Gulf Coast, as that will allow them to divert shipments to other nations should domestic demand falter, the people said. "Even as we push forward with decarbonization, it remains extremely important to continue utilizing fossil fuels,' Yoshifumi Murase, the commissioner of the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy within the trade ministry, said at a conference in Tokyo this week.

Japan Seeks Gas Past 2050 as AI, Data Centers Set to Lift Demand
Japan Seeks Gas Past 2050 as AI, Data Centers Set to Lift Demand

Bloomberg

time16 hours ago

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Japan Seeks Gas Past 2050 as AI, Data Centers Set to Lift Demand

Japan is encouraging energy importers to secure liquefied natural gas past 2050 — the deadline the second-biggest buyer of the fossil fuel has set itself for net zero emissions. Several of the country's largest LNG buyers are considering 20-year supply deals with projects that would start after 2030, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, who asked not to be named as the negotiations are private. They aim to deploy technology such as carbon capture and storage to mitigate the emissions from burning the super-chilled fossil fuel under Japan's national target.

Did Trump's assault on regs just knock out CCS?
Did Trump's assault on regs just knock out CCS?

E&E News

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • E&E News

Did Trump's assault on regs just knock out CCS?

The Trump administration is telling the world that carbon capture and storage at power plants is not ready for prime time, delivering a major setback to a technology that's struggling to find a foothold. EPA proposed a repeal last week of the Biden administration's climate rule on electricity producers, which called CCS the 'best system of emission reduction' for long-running coal plants and new gas turbines. In a new proposed rule, EPA said capturing 90 percent of carbon emissions at power plants hasn't been 'adequately demonstrated and its costs are not reasonable.' It's 'extremely unlikely that the infrastructure necessary for CCS can be deployed' by a 2032 compliance date set under the Biden rule, EPA said. Advertisement The Trump administration's proposed rollback — which EPA touted in a news release Friday with more than 50 supportive quotes from lawmakers and trade groups — comes amid scant deployment to date of carbon capture projects on U.S. power generation. Fewer projects in the electricity sector could impede broader CCS efforts nationwide, whether they involve storing carbon dioxide underground or using it to pump out more oil and gas. 'Power plants are large emitters, and sequestering CO2 from these facilities would have required significant investment in transport and storage infrastructure, most likely in the form of [carbon capture] hubs or clusters,' Brenna Casey, an associate at BloombergNEF, said in a recent note to clients. 'Other industrial emitters, like cement plants and petrochemicals producers, could have piggybacked on the infrastructure built to serve these power plants.' In a report last fall, the Global CCS Institute — a think tank that supports the industry — said 19 commercial-scale CCS facilities were operational in the United States. Only one, the Petra Nova facility in Texas, is on power generation, the assessment showed. Analysts offered mixed views on how much of a setback the proposed repeal of the Biden rule could deliver to power sector CCS — with some saying it could push plant operators to rethink investing in the technology or hold off on plans, while others said they didn't expect the Biden rule to speed up CCS deployment on fossil power plants. Under the Biden rule, new combined-cycle natural gas plants that run more than 40 percent of the time would also have needed to curb their emissions by 90 percent by 2032. EPA's repeal 'could be a large blow' to the U.S. CCS sector, Brendan Cooke, vice president for new energies at research firm Rystad Energy, said in a statement. 'A little over half of the announced capture capacity for the power sector is for plants that would be regulated under the rules put in place last year' by former President Joe Biden's EPA, Cooke said. 'For these plants, the absence of regulation, plus challenging economics, may be enough for operators to reconsider investments.' Others, however, see a more muted effect from retracting the Biden rule, in part because of the current interest in developing natural-gas-fueled power plants known as peakers that typically only run during periods of high demand. 'Our original view was that the EPA regulations would not accelerate CCS deployment on power plants as we expect the majority of future gas plants to be peakers and expected the rule to cause coal retirements to accelerate rather than install CCS,' said Jeffery Jen, a senior analyst with Enverus Intelligence Research, in an email. 'Based off this, the repealing of the regulation should not materially impact CCS deployment on power.' The 'most prominent business case' for CCS deployment on power plants is helping to give data centers 'clean' and 'dispatchable' baseload power, according to Jen. In an analysis last June, the Rhodium Group research firm came to a similar conclusion, finding that fossil generation 'with carbon capture generally plays a small role on the grid in 2035.' While there's been 'limited' announcements of CCS for new gas-fired power generation so far, 'the impact to potential growth in this area would be the most significant as all new baseload gas generation would have been mandated to install CCS,' said Cooke at Rystad. 'Without regulation we should not expect near term growth in this area.' While the federal 45Q tax credit — the main incentive for CCS projects in the United States — has stayed relatively unharmed thus far in Congress' reconciliation package, high costs and difficulty building new pipelines to carry captured CO2 are also headwinds that have blunted deployment. The U.S. power sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — behind only the transportation sector. Last week, the Carbon Capture Coalition, a group that works to build federal policy support for carbon management projects, highlighted announced CCS plans in the U.S. power sector. 'Regardless of the administration's decision on how or if to regulate CO2 emissions from the power sector, carbon capture and storage technologies are here to stay,' said Jessie Stolark, the coalition's executive director, in a statement. Still, Stanford University professor Rob Jackson said companies won't pay for CCS when they can pollute for free. Jackson is a senior fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment, as well as its Precourt Institute for Energy. Last week, Alex Bond, executive director of legal and clean energy policy at the Edison Electric Institute, said the group supports CCS technology but 'appreciates EPA's acknowledgment that carbon capture and storage technologies are not yet viable for widespread deployment.' 'Electric companies need standards for natural gas facilities that are attainable to plan and permit new facilities, along with flexible regulatory approaches that help maintain dispatchable generation,' Bond said in a statement. In a statement Monday, an unnamed EPA spokesperson said the agency's regulatory agenda under Biden 'was to kill off the coal, oil and gas sectors with costly regulations and mandates.' The U.S. hit record oil and gas production levels during the Biden administration, however. DOE didn't provide comments to POLITICO's E&E News on the outlook for the CCS industry. The Global CCS Institute, however, said some customers will continue to look for low-carbon power, regardless of EPA's position, and will be interested in natural gas plants with CCS. 'Some states may also continue to promote policies that require or incentivize CCS, and the administration is prioritizing Class VI primacy, which will help states move forward where CCS is a priority,' the institute said in a statement. 'Strong market signal' On Earth Day this year, the White House used the term 'cutting-edge' to describe CCS. The emissions-trapping technology was on a list of sectors — including nuclear and geothermal energy — that the Trump administration said it supports in pursuit of greater energy production and 'environmental innovation.' The inclusion of CCS didn't go unnoticed among industry members or its proponents, including the developer of a major carbon dioxide pipeline project in the Midwest. Since that April proclamation, however, the administration's mashup of policies around carbon capture has elicited both praise and disappointment. One development cheered by CCS supporters has been EPA's push to grant top oversight of wells used for geologic storage of carbon dioxide to state agencies. This year, EPA has bestowed that authority to West Virginia and proposed doing the same for Arizona and Texas, clearing the path for those states to issue permits for CO2 storage wells instead of the federal government. The Department of Energy, meanwhile, has announced its intention to remove carbon management from its Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management; proposed cutting the office's budget by about $270 million; and said its work would include 'promoting carbon capture, transport and storage with a focus on enhanced oil and gas recovery,' where CO2 is used to produce more oil. In May, DOE terminated nearly $3.7 billion in awards — including several on carbon capture projects. Carbon management backers called the cancellations a 'major step backward' for national deployment. Then came EPA's proposed rule last week, which said greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel-fired power plants don't contribute significantly to dangerous air pollution. Although it's 'disappointing to see the [Trump] administration send mixed signals on its support for carbon management, the industry has proven that it's still 'all in', including through an unprecedented number of announced projects and pending Class VI wells,' said Stolark at the Carbon Capture Coalition in an email Friday. There's a 'strong market signal' for CCS deployment through the 45Q credit, as well as bipartisan support from lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Stolark also said. Peter Findlay, director of carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) economics at research firm Wood Mackenzie, said the Trump administration's exact strategy on carbon capture isn't crystal clear. But he said it's one of three decarbonization target areas the administration backs, along with nuclear and geothermal. As far as CCS can help to foster energy independence, the Trump administration 'sees it as favorable, but not invest vast sums in the technology development,' Findlay said. While the United States remains a leader in operational CCS projects globally, Findlay said the potential is there for China to move past the U.S. if there's not sufficient federal support for early stage technologies. The Trump administration hasn't prioritized carbon capture in terms of its budget, said Ryan Fitzpatrick, senior director of domestic policy for the climate and energy program at Third Way, a national think tank and advocacy organization. 'I think a lot of the support that it's had and the protection that it's had in things like the reconciliation bill has come from Congress,' Fitzpatrick said. 'But I do think the administration is missing the bigger picture here, that whether it's the U.S. or other countries, CCS is going to be deployed and equipment is going to be purchased, technology is going to be licensed. 'There is money to be made, and the U.S. is currently well situated to compete for that, but that's not guaranteed,' he added. 'We have to have public support for this as well.' This week, the Senate Finance Committee's portion of the Republican reconciliation bill included some changes to the 45Q credit, including increasing the credit value for CO2 used in products or enhanced oil recovery. Promoting CCS tied to enhanced oil recovery fits into President Donald Trump's focus on expanding oil production, Fitzpatrick said. Still, he said, if CO2 storage via enhanced oil recovery is how Trump can support carbon capture, that's not the worst thing, as that will still prove beneficial for the sector overall. Project ups and downs Despite the fanfare, the only operational CCS facility at a U.S. power plant has less than six years combined under its belt. The Petra Nova project, which captures CO2 from a coal-fired unit at a power plant southwest of Houston, started operating around the beginning of 2017. While DOE put out a happy third birthday to the facility in January 2020, the CCS facility would soon shut down. Beginning that May, Petra Nova took a hiatus of more than three years after low oil prices, induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, hurt the project's economics. The Petra Nova facility, which has cumulatively captured 5 million metric tons of CO2 since it started up, is owned by ENEOS Xplora, formerly JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration. Meanwhile, at least one CCS project in the power sector is no longer moving ahead. Project Diamond Vault — a CCS retrofit of a Louisiana plant mainly fueled by petroleum coke announced in 2022 — is no more. 'In 2022, Cleco Power announced it would be initiating a two-year study to explore retrofitting the company's existing Madison 3 plant to reduce carbon emissions' through CCS, the power company said in a statement this week. In 2024, Cleco Power 'discontinued the study because it was found that the project wasn't economic and in the best interest of our customers.' But other projects are still working to join Petra Nova's ranks. Those include a CCS project at a California Resources (CRC) gas plant in California's Kern County, which announced plans to start construction in the second quarter of this year and begin CO2 injection before the end of 2025. The project was hit with a lawsuit in November over allegations that Kern County officials didn't properly weigh its environmental risks. On Monday, CRC spokesperson Richard Venn said construction of the CCS project is expected to begin in the next several weeks and will last roughly six months. That work includes well drilling, grading, trenching, foundations and installation of CO2 capture equipment, he said. 'CRC remains focused on advancing CCS as a critical tool for reducing emissions in California and supporting the state's ambitious climate goals,' Venn said in an email. Other proposals to tack on CCS technology are further out on the horizon. Developers of Project Tundra, which would add carbon capture to the coal-fired Milton R. Young Station in North Dakota, have declined to say when they could reach a final investment decision on the project. They failed to reach that milestone in 2024 and the project lost energy company TC Energy as one of its developers last year. 'We remain focused on Project Tundra and look forward to a final investment decision when the necessary conditions align, ensuring that the project fits our long-term goals,' said Ben Fladhammer, a spokesperson for Minnkota Power Cooperative, which operates the Young plant and is a developer of Project Tundra. Fladhammer said the estimated cost of Project Tundra is now $2 billion, up from an earlier estimate of $1.4 billion. Minnkota had opposed the power plant rule finalized by EPA last year. Fladhammer criticized the Biden rule as 'unworkable,' pointing to 'aggressive timelines and requirements' that would 'push dependable power plants toward retirement at a time when electricity demand is rising and the grid is already under strain.' 'Project Tundra was initiated well before the current power plant regulations were finalized,' Fladhammer said, adding that the project 'remains an option under active evaluation as we assess technologies that can support reliable, lower-carbon energy production.' Meanwhile, a natural gas power plant in West Virginia with CCS — the CPV Shay Energy Center — 'remains in active development,' said Matthew Litchfield, vice president of external and regulatory affairs at Competitive Power Ventures, in a statement Friday. Announced in 2022 shortly after Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the plant would have a capacity of about 2,000 megawatts. It's in the process of working through the interconnection process with regional grid operator PJM Interconnection, according to Litchfield. Construction on the plant is slated to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. 'We look forward to continuing to advance the project and help the region address the critical need for more large dispatchable power projects like CPV Shay,' he said. Meanwhile, utility Duke Energy is working on a front-end engineering and design study for a CCS project at the Edwardsport coal-to-gas plant in Indiana, and that's expected to wrap in the third quarter of 2026. Duke welcomed EPA's announcement last week. 'Last year's power plant rule unnecessarily puts pressure on customer affordability and grid reliability with little to no environmental benefits,' Duke spokesperson Angeline Protogere said in an email Friday. 'We appreciate EPA's ongoing efforts to address these concerns.' Separately, Entergy said an engineering study for a potential CCS project at the Lake Charles Power Station in Louisiana is still ongoing and is expected to be completed this summer. 'While we are currently reviewing EPA's proposal for fossil fuel-powered generating plants, Entergy has long supported the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and we remain committed to transitioning to modern low- and zero carbon-emitting generating resources,' said Neal Kirby, an Entergy spokesperson, in a statement about EPA's proposed repeal. In Florida, Tampa Electric spokesperson Cherie Jacobs said the utility currently has 'no plans to move forward with CCS,' but is planning to drill two test wells near the Polk Power Station in central Florida to better understand the area's geology. Tampa Electric could decide to pursue CCS in the future 'if it's in the best interest of our customers,' Jacobs said. This story also appears in Climatewire. Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the timing of Project Tundra's cost increase.

Saskatchewan government plans to extend life of coal plants: Minister
Saskatchewan government plans to extend life of coal plants: Minister

Yahoo

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Saskatchewan government plans to extend life of coal plants: Minister

REGINA — Saskatchewan's government says it's planning to extend the life of the province's coal plants before moving to nuclear power generation. Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison says in a letter to SaskPower employees that the decision will maintain jobs while keeping electricity affordable and reliable. Harrison did not provide details on the costs of the plan or timelines, but says the province will explore the viability of adding carbon capture units. The province already operates the units at the Boundary Dam Power Station, which has sometimes struggled to meet carbon capture targets. SaskPower, the province's electrical utility, operates three coal-fired plants and some units were scheduled to go offline in the coming years. The province signed a deal with Ottawa in 2019 recognizing some units could run beyond the phaseout deadline of 2030, but Harrison says Saskatchewan has constitutional authority over electricity generation. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 18, 2025. Jeremy Simes, The Canadian Press Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data

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