Latest news with #ballisticMissiles
The Guardian
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Israel's attack has exposed Iran's lack of firepower – but conflict could yet turn in Tehran's favour
It is a week since Israel began its largest attack ever on Iran, and in conventional military terms it is clear that Tehran is under extreme pressure. Israel has been able to achieve superiority over Iran's skies at extraordinary speed, within hours of launching its surprise assault. Its military claimed on Monday to have knocked out 120 Iranian air defence systems through a mixture of air and drone strikes, about a third of Tehran's pre-war total. In response, Iran's most effective weapon has been its stock of high-speed ballistic missiles, estimated at about 2,000 by Israel's Defence Force (IDF) at the outset of hostilities last week. But the heavy targeting by Israel of launch sites in western Iran, in underground bases such as at Kermanshah – coupled with Israel's grimly effective targeted killing of Iran's top military commanders – have left Iran struggling to respond militarily and presenting a significant threat. Iran has so far launched more than 400 missiles at Israel, but half, about 200, were launched in the initial retaliatory barrages last Friday. Since Monday the size of its missile barrages has reduced to a maximum of 15 to 20 (including 15 on Thursday afternoon), compared with up to 40 during the weekend, according to a count compiled by a US thinktank, the Institute for the Study of War. Iran's ability to manufacture new weapons is also likely to be limited, estimated by the US to be 50 a month before the hostilities broke out. The sheer speed of ballistic missiles makes them dangerous weapons and a number – about 10% – continue to evade Israel's sophisticated air defences, including a strike on the Soroka Medical Center in the southern city of Beersheba on Thursday that wounded 76. But the munitions mostly do not appear to be effectively targeted at Israel's military-industrial complex, aside from an attack on the refinery at Haifa in northern Israel on Sunday that led to the shutting down of the facilities there. Intercepting ballistic missiles is primarily the task of Israel's newest air defence system, Arrow 3, which have a 1,500-mile range and can knock out incoming missiles beyond the Earth's atmosphere, and its predecessor Arrow 2, though the US has been providing help with a Thaad system and destroyers based in the eastern Mediterranean. Neither Arrow system is cheap – the cost of an Arrow 3 interceptor has been put at $3.5m each, though other estimates suggest a figure of $2m and $1.5m for Arrow 2. The Israeli business magazine Globes has suggested that the total cost to Israel of Arrow interceptors has been $1bn to $1.5bn since October 2023. A key question, however, is how many interceptors does Israel's military have available, worries compounded by a report in the Wall Street Journal, which cited an anonymous US official as saying that Israel was running low. Stock levels are kept secret and that Israel, well aware of the Iranian ballistic missile threat, is considered unlikely to have chosen to attack Iran without at least enough interceptors to match its assessment of the likely threat. Nevertheless, sophisticated defensive missiles take time to manufacture, a problem long revealed in Ukraine, where Russia continues to fire more missiles than Kyiv has available air defences. In less than a week, Israel has told allies that it is further ahead in its attack than it expected to be, having killed 21 out of 22 senior military figures in the first 24 hours and 10 out of 12 nuclear scientists. The country's jets face almost no air defence threat as they fly over western and central Iran – Israel has so far acknowledged the loss of one drone – meaning they are able to target sites in the country with apparent impunity. Even if Israeli stockpiles of attack missiles run down in the next week or two, and there is no US intervention, its air dominance means it can continue to attack at a slower rate. Iran's capabilities have been 'exposed as inefficient', concluded the missile analyst Fabian Hinz in a paper for the International Institute of Strategic Studies, while the 'Israeli leadership, at least for the time being, [is] accepting the risks of ballistic missile strikes on its population centres'. As Hinz puts it, the 'deterrence balance' between the two countries is unravelling – and it may only change back in Tehran's favour if a suddenly a greater number or higher proportion of its remaining ballistic missiles strike population centres or key sites in Israel. There is no sign of that yet.
Reuters
3 days ago
- Politics
- Reuters
North Korea fired multiple-launch rockets from near Pyongyang, South Korea says
SEOUL, June 19 (Reuters) - North Korea fired more than 10 multiple-launched rockets on Thursday morning from Sunan near the capital Pyongyang in a north-westerly direction, South Korea's military said. It did not immediately provide other details. The weapons used by the North's military are typically categorized as short-range ballistic missiles by South Korea. North Korea is banned by U.N. Security Council resolutions from using ballistic missiles.
Al Arabiya
3 days ago
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
North Korea fired multiple-launch rockets from near Pyongyang, South Korea says
North Korea fired more than 10 multiple-launched rockets on Thursday morning from Sunan near the capital Pyongyang in a north-westerly direction, South Korea's military said. It did not immediately provide other details. The weapons used by the North's military are typically categorized as short-range ballistic missiles by South Korea. North Korea is banned by UN Security Council resolutions from using ballistic missiles. Developing
National Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- National Post
Strikes in Iran to continue, Israeli foreign minister tells diplomats
Israel's military operation in Iran will continue until its objectives are met, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said on Wednesday. Article content During a meeting with more than 30 foreign ambassadors at the scene of an Iranian rocket impact in Bat Yam, near Tel Aviv, Sa'ar said that the Iranian regime was 'making a mistake.' Article content 'The Iranian regime deliberately targets population centres and murders civilians,' he said. 'They do not understand that the Israeli people are strong and massively support Operation Rising Lion,' he added. Article content Article content The operation, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said is aimed at ending the threat to Israel posed by Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles, will continue until those objectives are met, said Sa'ar. Article content Article content 'We are determined to continue until we reach our objectives. There are no negotiations,' he added. Article content Eight people were killed on Sunday when an Iranian ballistic missile fell in a residential area of Bat Yam. A ninth person is still missing. Article content It was the deadliest single hit since Operation Rising Lion began on June 13. So far, 24 Israelis have been killed and some 1,500 wounded by Iran's ballistic missile assault, according to Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS.) Article content Nearly 4,000 Israelis have had to leave their homes as a result of Iranian attacks. From June 13 to noon local time on June 18, Iran had launched 19 barrages of over 400 projectiles at the Jewish state. Between 80 per cent and 90 per cent of the projectiles were intercepted, but more than 40 penetrated Israel's air defences. Article content Article content The largest share of the projectiles, or 45 per cent, were aimed at the centre of the country. Another 38 per cent targeted northern Israel and the rest its south, according to the INSS. Article content Article content In Iran, Israeli strikes have reportedly killed some 600 people, including more than 25 high-ranking military officers and 14 nuclear scientists, INSS wrote. Israeli aircraft and other forces have engaged more than 1,100 targets, including five sites connected with the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Article content
Reuters
5 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Israel-Iran war already takes toll on oil and gas sector
LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - Critical energy infrastructure in Israel and Iran has not escaped unscathed from the first few days of the countries' escalated conflict. Worst-case scenarios have yet to be realized, but the war is already having a notable impact on energy production and exports in both countries. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices jumped 7% to over $74 a barrel on Friday after Israel launched an unprecedented wave of airstrikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to fire hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. Some energy facilities have been hit in both countries since then, leading to significant disruptions to production. However, prices receded slightly on Monday, as it appeared that both sides were not immediately targeting the most sensitive energy infrastructure and supply routes, and following a report that Iran was seeking ceasefire mediation. Investor focus remains squarely on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow and vital waterway between Iran and Oman in the Mideast Gulf through which between 18 and 19 million barrels per day of crude oil and fuels flow, nearly a fifth of the world's consumption. Another 85 million tons of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were also sent through the strait last year, equivalent to around 20% of global demand. Disrupting maritime activity through the strait would thus severely impact oil and gas markets, pushing prices much higher, possibly into three-digit territory. This doomsday scenario has not yet played out, but disruption to both Iran's and Israel's energy industries has been meaningful nonetheless. Perhaps most notably, Iran's oil exports appear to have essentially ground to a halt in recent days. Total Iranian crude and condensate oil exports this week are currently forecast to reach 102,000 bpd, compared with a weekly average of 1.7 million so far this year, according to analytics firm Kpler. Critically, exports from Kharg Island from which Iran exports over 90% of its oil, appear to have completely halted since Friday. No tankers were anchored at Kharg Island as of Monday, according to LSEG satellite ship tracking data. However, Iran has roughly 27.5 million barrels stored in tankers outside the Gulf, according to Kpler data, which would enable it to sell oil for a few weeks. Iran has produced an average of 3.4 million bpd of crude oil and another 1.3 million bpd of condensate so far in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, with China appearing to be the main buyer. Israel has also directly targeted some Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran on Saturday partially suspended, opens new tab gas production at the South Pars gas field in the Mideast Gulf, in what was probably Israel's first strike on the country's oil and gas sector. South Pars, which is shared with Qatar, is the world's biggest gas field. It produces around 610 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, accounting for around 80% of Iran's total gas output, opens new tab. The portion controlled by Qatar, referred to as the North Field, provides the natural gas for the Gulf state's enormous LNG industry. The field also produces around 700,000 barrels of per day of condensate, a light oil that is used as feedstock to produce fuels and petrochemicals. The Persian Gulf Star condensate refinery, which became Iran's largest refinery when it came online in 2017, can process 420,000 bpd of condensates from South Pars. While the extent of the damage to the South Pars field is unknown, any serious issues could meaningfully impact condensate production. In addition, Israel has targeted the Shahr refinery outside Tehran as well as a number of fuel depots around the capital city. Again, the full impact of these strikes on production is unknown. The conflict has also already had a significant effect on Israel's energy industry. Israel on Friday shut down two of its three offshore natural gas fields, the Chevron-operated Leviathan field, opens new tab and Energean's Karish field, reducing Israel's supply by nearly two thirds. While the country's Tamar field continues to operate, Israel will have to turn to coal and fuel oil as a substitute for the gas in its power plants. These supply outages have had a meaningful impact on Israel's gas exports. Leviathan produced 11.33 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024, most of which is exported to neighbouring Egypt and Jordan. Israeli gas accounts for about 15-20% of Egypt's consumption, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) shows. The disruption of Israel's gas supply led Egyptian fertilizer producers to halt operations on Friday. Finally, the ORL oil refinery in Haifa, one of Israel's two refineries, said on Monday it had shut down all its facilities after a power station used to produce steam and electricity was significantly damaged in an Iranian missile strike. It remains to be seen how long the two sides will continue to exchange blows. If a ceasefire is quickly reached, the ultimate impact on energy markets could be relatively limited. But given how much this conflict has escalated in only a few days, the worst-case scenarios cannot be fully discounted. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab, opens new tab can help you keep up. 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