Latest news with #armscontrol
The Guardian
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
The Guardian view on Israel, the US and Iran: you can't bomb your way out of nuclear proliferation
Eighty years after the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and 40 years after the US and Soviet Union pledged to reduce their arsenals, the threat of nuclear war has resurged with a vengeance. The age of disarmament is over, a prominent thinktank warned this week: 'We see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements,' said Hans M Kristensen of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The world's nine nuclear-armed states have amassed the equivalent of 145,000 Hiroshima bombs. Israel's illegal attack upon Iran is purportedly a last-ditch attempt to prevent it joining this club – as Israel did long ago, though does not admit it. While Tehran possesses the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon if it chose to, US intelligence believes it has not made that decision – and would still need up to three years to build and deploy one. Israel does not appear to be striking Iran because US nuclear diplomacy has failed, but because it fears it might succeed. Many of its targets are unrelated to the nuclear programme, and some even to Iran's military. Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly invoked regime change: more honestly, regime collapse. Few believe Israel can destroy Iran's nuclear programme without the US. The Israeli prime minister seeks to bait Donald Trump into joining this assault: if he can't get one of the peace deals he wants, how about taking a military triumph? Mr Trump's shifting rhetoric has suggested he is being dragged along, to the alarm of Maga isolationists and others who recognise the folly of seeing an easy win. But he may still hope to threaten Iran into a deal. The bigger threat is nuclear proliferation globally. The remaining US-Russian nuclear arms control treaty, New Start, is due to lapse in February – leaving them without limits on their arsenals for the first time in half a century. Both are already pursuing extensive modernisation programmes. China is still far behind, but its armoury is growing fastest, at around 100 warheads a year. This month's strategic defence review commits the UK to spending £15bn on new submarine-launched warheads and opens the door to the reintroduction of air-launched nuclear weapons. North Korea appears to be building a third uranium enrichment site. Taboos elsewhere are eroding, in an increasingly unstable world where impunity reigns. Support for an independent deterrent has soared in South Korea, no longer confident of the US umbrella. Weapons are becoming not only deadlier, but riskier, with the integration of nuclear and conventional capabilities increasing the prospect of miscalculations. And potential flashpoints dot this bleak landscape. Russia has repeatedly talked up the threat of nuclear war in Ukraine – but that does not guarantee it is an empty one. India's unprecedented use of Brahmos cruise missiles in last month's clash with Pakistan signals a new and dangerous phase in south Asia's strategic balance. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq, coupled with the survival of North Korea, sent the message that the safest course is not to shun weapons of mass destruction but to pursue and cling to them at all costs. Attacking Iran, which limited its programme in exchange for sanctions relief, will only fuel that conviction. It may set back Tehran's nuclear progress somewhat, but makes it more likely to rush for the bomb – and avoid the international scrutiny it previously accepted. Saudi Arabia and others would surely follow fast. Arab and Muslim countries have rightly denounced Israel's strikes and called for disarmament 'without selectivity'. The current crisis makes that look a more hopeless cause than ever – but is the clearest evidence of why it is needed in place of a nuclear race which can have no winners.
Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Times
How the world could start a nuclear war by accident
The growing use of artificial intelligence in military planning could increase the risk of accidental nuclear war, a leading arms control monitor has said. In its annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the leading independent body assessing worldwide nuclear forces, says the world's nuclear stockpiles are about to be no longer in decline. The stocks had been declining since the end of the Cold War. It highlights the fast-increasing stocks of China, which have grown from 500 to 600 warheads in the year, and the imminent expiry of the last remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The institute's director, Dan Smith, also warns that the new arms race 'carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one', not least because of the development of new technologies. 'One component of the coming arms race will be the attempt to gain and maintain a competitive edge in artificial intelligence (AI), both for offensive and defensive purposes,' he writes in the report's introduction. 'There are benefits to be found but the careless adoption of AI could significantly increase nuclear risk.' He says that AI and quantum technologies could make it easier to assess compliance with any nuclear agreements that are forged. But they encourage speedier — and possibly less considered — decision-making. 'As the new technologies speed up decision-making in a crisis, there is also the risk of a war as a result of miscommunication, misunderstanding or even a technical accident,' he says. Nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Five are the permanent members of the United Nations security council, and signatories of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT): the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. Two declared nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, did not sign the NPT, while a third, North Korea, withdrew before conducting its first nuclear test. Israel neither signed the NPT, nor declared its nuclear weapons, but is believed to possess about 90 warheads. China has been expanding its arsenal fastest. President Xi ordered a modernisation of China's entire military but particularly its missile and nuclear capabilities, reportedly after details emerged about the decay of its missile silos. The modernisation appears to be working. The Sipri report says 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos have been completed, or are near completion, as of January this year. However, its total number of warheads remains a fraction of those possessed by either America or Russia: together they hold nine in ten of the world's nuclear weapons. As their relations have worsened since 2000, and an aggressive new breed of American strategists have questioned whether US choices should be restrained by international treaties, their existing arms control measures have fallen away. The so-called 'New Start' (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) agreed by Presidents Obama and Putin in 2010 expires next February with no sign that it will be renewed in any form. Until now, the disposal of old nuclear warheads has meant that the total arsenal has declined rapidly since the fall of the Berlin Wall. That trend is now over, the report suggests. 'The sizes of their respective military stockpiles seem to have stayed relatively stable in 2024 but both states are implementing extensive modernisation programmes that could increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future,' it says. The Sipri report raises the case of Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the Soviet officer sometimes heralded as the man who saved the world from nuclear Armageddon. In 1983, Petrov decided unilaterally but correctly that a computer which told him five American nuclear missiles were on their way to strike Russia was wrong. Jeffrey Kaplow, who researches nuclear security at the University of William and Mary in Virginia, said AI , if programmed well, could be used to assess risk in such circumstances better than humans. 'There's this idea that human decision-making in a crisis is not that great,' he said. AI could help leaders navigate the cultural context and goals of their 'opposition' more clearly, he said.'The signs are that a new nuclear arms race is gearing up,' Smith concludes. 'Compared to the last one, the risks are likely to be more diverse and more serious.'
Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Times
China's nuclear buildup raises fears of AI-driven war
The growing use of artificial intelligence in military planning could increase the risk of accidental nuclear war, a leading arms control monitor has said. In its annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the leading independent body assessing worldwide nuclear forces, says the world's nuclear stockpiles are about to be no longer in decline. The stocks had been declining since the end of the Cold War. It highlights the fast-increasing stocks of China, which have grown from 500 to 600 warheads in the year, and the imminent expiry of the last remaining arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. The institute's director, Dan Smith, also warns that the new arms race 'carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one', not least because of the development of new technologies.
Arab News
5 days ago
- Politics
- Arab News
World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals — SIPRI think tank
STOCKHOLM: The world's nuclear-armed states are beefing up their atomic arsenals and walking out of arms control pacts, creating a new era of threat that has brought an end to decades of reductions in stockpiles since the Cold War, a think tank said on Monday. Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in its yearbook, an annual inventory of the world's most dangerous weapons. Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, nearly all belonging to either the US or Russia. SIPRI said global tensions had seen the nine nuclear states — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — plan to increase their stockpiles. 'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,' SIPRI said. 'Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.' SIPRI said Russia and the US, which together possess around 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, had kept the sizes of their respective useable warheads relatively stable in 2024. But both were implementing extensive modernization programs that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future. The fastest-growing arsenal is China's, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads per year since 2023. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade. According to the estimates, Russia and the US held around 5,459 and 5,177 nuclear warheads respectively, while China had around 600.
Malay Mail
5 days ago
- Politics
- Malay Mail
World nuclear arsenal grows for first time since Cold War; China expands fastest, US and Russia modernise arsenals, says Stockholm think tank
Nuclear states are modernizing arsenal Russia and US hold 90per cent of nuclear warheads China's nuclear arsenal growing the fastest STOCKHOLM, June 16 — The world's nuclear-armed states are beefing up their atomic arsenals and walking out of arms control pacts, creating a new era of threat that has brought an end to decades of reductions in stockpiles since the Cold War, a think tank said on Monday. Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in its yearbook, an annual inventory of the world's most dangerous weapons. Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, nearly all belonging to either the US or Russia. SIPRI said global tensions had seen the nine nuclear states - the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel - plan to increase their stockpiles. 'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,' SIPRI said. 'Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.' SIPRI said Russia and the U.S., which together possess around 90per cent of all nuclear weapons, had kept the sizes of their respective useable warheads relatively stable in 2024. But both were implementing extensive modernization programmes that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future. The fastest-growing arsenal is China's, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads per year since 2023. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade. According to the estimates, Russia and the US held around 5,459 and 5,177 nuclear warheads respectively, while China had around 600. — Reuters
