Latest news with #ZillowEconomists
Fast Company
16 hours ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Heading into the year, Zillow economists forecasted that U.S. home prices were likely to rise 2.6% in 2025. However, this year, the housing market—in particular in the Sun Belt—was softer than expected and Zillow has made several downgrades to its forecast for national home prices. This week, newly released data from Zillow shows that U.S. home prices have decelerated to a year-over-year increase of just 0.4%. Zillow economists now expect U.S. home prices to decline by 0.7% between May 2025 and May 2026. 'With inventory up nearly 20% over the previous year, buyers had more options in May than at any time since July 2020. Despite higher sales, sellers still outnumber buyers,' wrote Zillow economists. 'This gives buyers more time to decide and more power in negotiations. Zillow's market heat index shows a balanced market nationwide, one that's a lot more buyer-friendly than in recent years. Competition among buyers declined to the lowest level seen in May in Zillow records, reaching back through 2018.' Not only do Zillow economists predict soft national home price growth this year, but they're also predicting that the housing market will only see 4.1 million U.S. existing home sales in 2025. That would mark the third-straight year of suppressed existing home sales. For comparison, in pre-pandemic 2019, there were 5.3 million existing home sales in the U.S. Zillow economists added: 'Home values have fallen in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas over the past year, and sellers cut prices on almost 26% of listings nationwide—another May high in Zillow records. Homes that sell typically do so in 17 days, about four more than last year and only two days fewer than pre-pandemic averages.' Among the 300 largest U.S. housing markets, Zillow expects the strongest home price appreciation between May 2025 and May 2026 to occur in these 10 areas: Atlantic City, New Jersey → 3.4% Kingston, New York → 2.7% Knoxville, Tennessee → 2.6% Pottsville, Pennsylvania → 2.5% Torrington, Connecticut → 2.4% Rochester, New York → 2.2% Syracuse, New York → 2.1% Fayetteville, Arkansas → 2.1% Rockford, Illinois → 2.1% Yuma, Arizona → 2.0% Among the 300 largest U.S. housing markets, Zillow expects the weakest home price appreciation between May 2025 and May 2026 to occur in these 10 areas: Houma, Louisiana → -9.4% Lake Charles, Louisiana → -8.9% New Orleans → -7.2% Alexandria, Louisiana → -6.7% Lafayette, Louisiana → -6.6% Shreveport, Louisiana → -6.4% Beaumont, Texas → -6.2% San Francisco → -5.5% Midland, Texas → -5.3% Odessa, Texas → -5.3% While Zillow expects home prices across most of Florida to be flat over the coming year, ResiClub remains skeptical. After all, Florida has experienced a significant increase in active inventory and months of supply over the past year, which could signal potential pricing weakness. Indeed, .
Fast Company
2 days ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Buyer's or seller's housing market? Zillow's new rating for 250 major markets
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists use an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers. Higher scores point to hotter, seller-friendly metro housing markets. Lower scores signal cooler markets where buyers hold more negotiating power. According to Zillow: Score of 70 or above = strong seller's market Score from 55 to 69 = seller's market Score from 44 to 55 = neutral market Score from 28 to 44 = buyer's market Score of 27 or below = strong buyer's market Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at 55 in its May 2025 reading, published this week. That said, Zillow's reading varies significantly across the country. Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the HOTTEST markets, where sellers have the most power: Rochester, NY → 145 Buffalo, NY → 110 Syracuse, NY 100 Charleston, WV → 99 Albany, NY → 97 Hartford, CT → 89 Lansing, MI → 85 Anchorage, AK → 83 Springfield, MA → 82 Manchester, NH → 81 Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the COLDEST markets, where buyers have the most power: Macon, GA → 23 Jackson, TN → 24 Brownsville, TX → 27 Gulfport, MS → 27 Naples, FL → 27 Longview, TX → 27 Daphne, AL → 29 Punta Gorda, FL → 29 Beaumont, TX → 30 Cape Coral, FL → 31 Does ResiClub agree with Zillow's assessment? Directionally, I believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most power—particularly around the Gulf—as well as markets where sellers have maintained (relatively speaking) somewhat of a grip, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest. Based on my personal housing analysis, I consider Southwest Florida the weakest/softest chunk of the U.S. housing market. Not too far behind are pockets of Texas, Colorado, and Arizona markets where there's built up unsold spec inventory. In my view, many West Coast markets are softer right now than Zillow's analysis suggests—in particular, the areas that have recently seen big jumps in active inventory for sale. What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2021 during the Pandemic Housing Boom? Below is Zillow's May 2021 reading—published in June 2021.
Fast Company
20-05-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. This week, Zillow economists published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will fall by 0.9% between April 2025 and April 2026. After a series of downward revisions—beginning in January, when Zillow's 12-month national home price forecast was +2.9%, and subsequently lowered each month until reaching -1.7% last month—Zillow has finally stopped downgrading its outlook. That said, it's fair to call the Zillow economist bearish, given that for this forecast to be correct, 2025 would mark the first calendar-year home price decline since 2011. Why did Zillow downgrade its forecast for national home prices so many times this year? 'The rise in [active] listings is fueling softer price growth, as greater supply provides more options and more bargaining power for buyers,' Zillow economists wrote in March. 'Potential buyers are opting to remain renters for longer as affordability challenges suppress demand for home purchases.' Zillow thinks strained housing affordability—caused by U.S. home prices rising over 40% during the pandemic housing boom and mortgage rates spiking from 3% to 6% in 2022—is weighing on price growth. 'Affordability is still challenging buyers. A mortgage payment on a typical home in March required about 35.3% of median household income nationwide when using a 20% down payment,' wrote Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen last month. 'That's a slight improvement over last year, but is still unaffordable. Spending more than 30% of income on housing is considered a financial burden, and a 20% down payment is a steep entry fee, coming out to about $72,000 on the typical U.S. home.' According to Zillow's home price model, the listing site also believes that weakening and softening housing markets across the Sun Belt will weigh on nationally aggregated home prices this year. Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the strongest home price appreciation between April 2025 and April 2026 to occur in these 10 areas: Atlantic City, NJ: 3.2% Kingston, NY: 2.6% Torrington, CT: 2.4% Knoxville, TN: 2.3% Rochester, NY: 2.2% Syracuse, NY: 2.0% Vineland, NJ: 2.0% Fayetteville, AR: 1.9% Concord, NH: 1.9% Hilton Head Island, SC: 1.8% And these are the 10 housing markets where Zillow expects the weakest home price appreciation over that time period: Houma, LA: -10.2% Lake Charles, LA: -8.4% Alexandria, LA: -7.5% New Orleans, LA: -7.1% Lafayette, LA: -7.0% Shreveport, LA: -6.9% Beaumont, TX: -6.2% Midland, TX: -6.1% Monroe, LA: -5.5% Odessa, TX: -5.3% Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. Florida is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now.
