Latest news with #YvesGiroux
CTV News
12 hours ago
- Business
- CTV News
PBO Yves Giroux on whether the government is on track to meet its fiscal targets
Politics Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux explains why it is difficult to assess the government's projected operating budget.
Global News
a day ago
- Business
- Global News
Canada's economic growth likely to stall in Q2 as trade war bites
The parliamentary budget officer said Thursday he expects the federal government's deficit will balloon this year thanks to ramped-up defence spending — but without a spring budget or more clarity from Ottawa, he can't say for sure. Yves Giroux, the government's fiscal watchdog, issued a new economic and fiscal update Thursday that omits the usual deficit projections for future years. Giroux said in an interview Thursday that the lack of a spring budget leaves him unable to offer a concrete analysis to Parliamentarians about the sustainability of the government's finances. 'Being the parliamentary budget officer, not having a budget is a big gap,' he said. Giroux said his office could use the Liberals' costed spring election platform as a basis for its analysis, but those plans have already shifted just a few weeks into the new government's tenure. Story continues below advertisement Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans earlier this month to reach the NATO defence spending target of two per cent of GDP this fiscal year with $9.3 billion in new funding — a rapid expansion of his own previous promise to hit those levels by the end of the decade. 9:55 Former Chief of the Defence Staff reacts to spending plans The prime minister also promised $4.3 billion in aid for Ukraine at the G7 summit earlier this week. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy In pre-election estimates that did not account for the impacts of the trade war, the PBO predicted the federal deficit would come in at $42 billion for this fiscal year. Based on new spending announced since then, Giroux said he now pegs that figure at between $60 billion and $70 billion. The final number could be lower, Giroux said, if the government implements cost cutting somewhere this year. But he noted Ottawa's revenues are also under pressure. Story continues below advertisement The PBO expects economic growth to stall in the second quarter of the year as Canada's trade war with the United States sinks exports. The federal government also has introduced plans for a one-percentage-point cut to the bottom income tax bracket, the net cost of which the PBO pegged at $28 billion over five years in a separate report released Wednesday. Giroux said Thursday he also can't properly assess whether the federal government is on track to meet its fiscal targets because the Liberals haven't defined their new budget benchmarks. Carney announced a plan before the spring election to split Ottawa's budget into operating and capital streams, and to balance the operating side in three years. Giroux said in an updated economic and fiscal monitor report that the Liberals haven't yet said what will be included in this operating budget. 1:57 Prime Minister Carney races to dismantle trade barriers before Canada Day 'In the absence of a clear set of criteria as to what would constitute operating versus capital spending, it's not possible to determine whether they would be on track to meet that,' he said. Story continues below advertisement Parliamentarians 'may wish to seek additional clarity' on how the government intends to define these measures and keep federal finances stable, Giroux's report concludes. The government's old fiscal anchors were based on keeping annual budget deficits below one per cent of GDP and maintaining a declining debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term. The PBO report notes that the federal government could hit its operating budget targets but still see the debt-to-GDP ratio rise due to additional borrowing to fund, for example, accelerated military spending. 'The debt-to-GDP ratio being on the declining trend, it's not clear that would still be met if that was to still be the anchor, considering the recent announcements for defence spending,' Giroux said. The same goes for keeping deficits at one per cent of GDP, he added. The Liberal government has had a busy first few weeks, Giroux said, with King Charles' visit for the throne speech, the G7 summit, the upcoming NATO summit in Europe and a trade war with the U.S. But that's no excuse to not publish some kind of fiscal update, he said. 'We would have expected, at the very least, an economic and fiscal update to be tabled before the House rises,' Giroux said. 'And I'm confident that the good public servants at the Department of Finance would have been able to provide that type of information to ministers for them to table in the House or in another forum.' Story continues below advertisement The PBO does say the federal government's deficit for the last fiscal year likely came in at $46 billion, roughly $4.3 billion lower than estimates in March, thanks in part to higher corporate tax revenues and the imposition of counter-tariffs on the United States. The Canadian Press reached out to Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne for comment but has not yet received a response.
CBC
a day ago
- Business
- CBC
Deficit to be $4.3B smaller than predicted, but spending plans remain obscure: budget report
Social Sharing The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) says the deficit will be smaller than predicted but the Liberal government's lack of clarity on fiscal planning has left Yves Giroux's office unable to determine if the government's spending plans are sustainable. The Economic and Fiscal Monitor released by Giroux's office Thursday morning says that the deficit for 2024-25 will be $46 billion — $4.3 billion lower than it had predicted during the election and $2.3 billion lower than was estimated in the fall economic statement. "The revision to our estimated deficit reflects a $5.2-billion increase in our estimate for revenues in 2024-25, somewhat offset by a $1-billion increase in our estimate for expenses," the report said. The PBO said that while it predicted the Canadian economy would only grow by 1.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 1.6 per cent in the first three months of the year, real gross domestic product actually grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent. The report said the improved fiscal position of the federal government can be explained by stronger than expected corporate income tax revenues and the money collected from Canada's counter-tariffs on U.S. goods. Improved growth in the first three months of the year, Giroux's office said, can be partly explained by companies rushing to buy inventory before tariffs were imposed. The PBO is predicting that real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 will likely remain flat, with an expected decline in exports acting as a drag on the economy. "Business investment is also expected to remain subdued due to elevated uncertainty," the report said. Fiscal sustainability During the election campaign, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced his plan to separate "operational spending" — the day-to-day running of government programs and departments — from "capital spending," which is anything that builds an asset the government holds. The Liberal platform pledged that it would cut the growth of government spending from nine to two per cent by eliminating waste, duplication and deploying technology to balance operational spending by 2028. But the PBO says the Liberal government has complicated its ability to track that fiscal anchor by not fully explaining how it will define operating and capital spending. "Hence the PBO is unable to assess whether the Government's recent fiscal policy initiatives presented in Parliament … are consistent with achieving its new fiscal objective," the report said. Because of the lack of clarity, the government's spending plans could be fiscally unsustainable, Giroux's office said. "Parliamentarians may wish to seek additional clarity regarding how the government plans to measure its fiscal anchor and how it will ensure federal finances remain sustainable.
Vancouver Sun
a day ago
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
Ottawa's fiscal watchdog says it's in the dark on federal government's fiscal targets
The parliamentary budget officer says he can't properly assess whether the federal government is on track to meet its fiscal targets because the Liberals' new budget benchmarks haven't been defined. Without a spring budget, that means Ottawa's budgetary watchdog is in the dark on how recently announced plans to boost Canada's defence spending and cut income taxes will affect the government's fiscal position. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a plan before the spring election to split Ottawa's budget into operating and capital streams, and to balance the operating side in three years. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux says in a new analysis that the Liberals haven't yet defined what will be included in this operating budget, so there's no way to say if the federal government is on track to meet its new fiscal targets. The government's old fiscal anchors were based on keeping annual budget deficits below one per cent of GDP and keeping debt-to-GDP on a declining path over the medium term. Giroux does say the federal government's deficit for the last fiscal year likely came in at $46 billion, roughly $4.3 billion lower than estimates in March, thanks in part to higher corporate tax revenues and the imposition of counter-tariffs against the United States. Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
National Post
a day ago
- Business
- National Post
Ottawa's fiscal watchdog says it's in the dark on federal government's fiscal targets
The parliamentary budget officer says he can't properly assess whether the federal government is on track to meet its fiscal targets because the Liberals' new budget benchmarks haven't been defined. Article content Without a spring budget, that means Ottawa's budgetary watchdog is in the dark on how recently announced plans to boost Canada's defence spending and cut income taxes will affect the government's fiscal position. Article content Article content Article content Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a plan before the spring election to split Ottawa's budget into operating and capital streams, and to balance the operating side in three years. Article content Article content Parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux says in a new analysis that the Liberals haven't yet defined what will be included in this operating budget, so there's no way to say if the federal government is on track to meet its new fiscal targets. Article content The government's old fiscal anchors were based on keeping annual budget deficits below one per cent of GDP and keeping debt-to-GDP on a declining path over the medium term. Article content Giroux does say the federal government's deficit for the last fiscal year likely came in at $46 billion, roughly $4.3 billion lower than estimates in March, thanks in part to higher corporate tax revenues and the imposition of counter-tariffs against the United States. Article content
