Latest news with #Yemen
ABC News
6 hours ago
- Politics
- ABC News
Who are Iran's key allies in the Middle East and globally?
Iran has spent decades propping up militant groups and political regimes across the Middle East, forming its so-called "Axis of Resistance", while pursuing close relationships with other global powers. Yet after Israel attacked multiple sites in Iran last weekend, sparking a fierce exchange of missiles, those allies were largely silent. Israel's powerful ally the US has openly discussed attacking, yet only one Iran-backed militant group has stepped in to defend it. Here's a closer look at the key alliances in the Iran-Israel conflict and how these allies are responding. Iran's so-called 'Axis of Resistance' Since the 1970s, Iran has projected its power across the Middle East using a network of close allies that share its aim of countering US and Israeli influence across the region. This so-called "Axis of Resistance" threatened that any strikes against Iran or its affiliates would trigger a formidable response. The network grew to include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, some armed groups in Iraq and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank. But over the past two years, the "axis" has been dealt some severe blows, with many of Iran's allies in the region either weakened or ousted from power. Andreas Krieg, a security expert and associate professor at King's College London, says Iran's ties have unravelled. "It is not really an 'axis' anymore as [much as] a loose network where everyone largely is occupied with its own survival," he says. According to Ian Parmeter, a Middle East scholar at the Australian National University (ANU) and a former Australian ambassador to Lebanon, that leaves Iran in its "weakest state" in more than 40 years. "None of its allies are able to support it in a way that they could previously," he says. "That's why the Israel Defense Forces have been able to launch these attacks on Iran now." Click on the cards below to read more about Iran's remaining allies. Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem vowed retaliation for recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon would be carried out in central Tel Aviv. ( Reuters: Al Manar TV ) Hezbollah has long been considered Iran's first line of defence in case of a war with Israel, but the Lebanese militant group has stayed out of the latest conflict. At one point, Hezbollah was believed to have around 150,000 rockets and missiles, and its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, once claimed to have 100,000 fighters. The group was drawn into a full-scale war with Israel last September after it tried to help its ally, Hamas, fight off Israel's offensive in Gaza, which was sparked by the Palestinian militants' October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel. Israel's daring attack, which involved remotely detonating pagers and walkie-talkies armed with explosives that had been distributed to Hezbollah members, killed key members of the armed group as well as some civilians. While a US-brokered ceasefire halted the Israel-Hezbollah conflict last November, Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and carries out near-daily air strikes. Hezbollah's current leader, Naim Qassem, has condemned Israel's attacks on Iran and offered condolences for the senior Iranian officers who were killed. But Qassem did not suggest Hezbollah would take part in any retaliation against Israel. ANU's Mr Parmeter says it is because Hezbollah is still reeling from its losses, with Israel having killed most of its top leaders and destroying much of its arsenal. "Hezbollah has been very badly degraded, and Iran hasn't been able to resupply it with rockets and missiles," Mr Parmeter says. "So Hezbollah is not able to create a diversionary attack on Iran's behalf." Still, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, told the Associated Press a role for the militant group in the Israel-Iran conflict should not be ruled out. "This depends on political and field developments," he said. "Anything is possible." Iran-backed: Iraqi militias show solidarity The US launched strikes against the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah. ( Reuters: Thaier al-Sudani ) Unlike Hezbollah, whose military wing has operated as a non-state actor in Lebanon, the main Iraqi militias are members of a coalition that is officially part of the state defence forces. For their part in Iran's "axis", the Iraqi militias have occasionally struck bases housing US troops in Iraq and Syria. One of these militias, Kataib Hezbollah, said it was "deeply regrettable" that Israel allegedly fired at Iran from Iraqi airspace in the last week. The armed group called on the Iraqi government to "urgently expel hostile forces from the country," which is a reference to US troops in Iraq, but it made no threat of force. Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at the British think tank Chatham House, told the Associated Press that Iraq's militias did not want to pull their country into a major conflict. "Things in Iraq are good for them right now, they're connected to the state — they're benefiting politically, economically," Dr Mansour said. "They've seen what's happened to Iran, to Hezbollah, and they're concerned that Israel will turn on them as well." Iran-backed: Houthis still attacking The strike was the third US attack on Houthi targets in Yemen in recent days. ( AP Photo ) The Houthis remain the only Iran-backed group still firing missiles at Israel as part of a campaign that began with the Gaza war in solidarity with Palestinians. "Triumphing for the oppressed Palestinian and Iranian peoples … This operation was coordinated with the operations carried out by the Iranian army," a military spokesperson said after targeting central Israel's Jaffa. The Houthis are mountain fighters who have been battling Saudi-led forces for control of Yemen, in what is widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. They have been the de facto government in north Yemen since a 2022 ceasefire. The group has a large arsenal of armed drones and ballistic missiles largely supplied by Iran, which it has previously used to fire at ships in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route. But the ANU's Mr Parmeter says the Houthis are too geographically removed to strategically harm Israel beyond the rebels' sporadic missile attacks. "Yemen is certainly supported by Iran, but it's too far away to be able to do much damage to Israel," he says. The US has thwarted most of the previous attacks and carried out retaliatory strikes with Israel on Houthi bases. Could Iran's global allies step in? Iran is also part of an informal network of "CRINK" countries, which is an acronym for China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. So far, China has condemned Israel's attacks on Iran but it has limited its response to supporting a diplomatic solution. North Korea has also condemned the attacks as a "crime against humanity" without offering Iran further support. It's Russia, however, that has stepped in by offering to mediate the conflict. Vladimir Putin has close ties with both Iran and Israel's leader. ( Reuters: Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool ) President Vladimir Putin has denounced the attacks on Iran and has reportedly warned that any US intervention would be a "terrible spiral of escalation". "Russia is certainly very close to Iran at the moment and it's playing a very important role in supplying drones to Russia for the war in Ukraine," Mr Parmeter says. "So Russia owes Iran for its drones, but, at the same time, Putin and Netanyahu get on very well personally." According to Mr Parmeter, Russia's offer to mediate is unlikely to "go anywhere" and "it's just a good way for Putin to present as an international statesman". Mr Parmeter says it is also unlikely that other Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan or the United Arab Emirates would support Iran because they are not close and would not want further escalation. Israel and US 'extraordinarily close' Donald Trump shares a close relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu. ( Reuters ) As for Israel, it has the militarily and politically powerful United States as a close ally. "Netanyahu won't do anything without first clearing it with Trump, he has an extraordinarily close relationship with him," Mr Parmeter says. US President Donald Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" and raised the idea that its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, would be an "easy target" if he were to be assassinated. But the US says it is maintaining a "defensive" position in the Iran–Israel conflict for now, meaning it is only focused on deterring or intercepting attacks on Israel. Still, Mr Trump has teased that the US "may or may not" strike Iran and would make a decision "within two weeks". The US currently holds a significant military presence in more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries and on ships throughout the region's waters, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr Parmeter says Israel would want the US to get involved because it needs the American "bunker-buster" bombs to finish destroying Iran's nuclear sites. These bombs are designed to penetrate deep below the surface before exploding, making them ideal for attacking hardened bunkers and tunnels. In this case, Mr Parmeter says Israel needs them to significantly damage Iran's Fordow nuclear fuel enrichment plant, built deeply into a mountain. "The big risk is the United States will get involved in some way, but I don't see it getting involved with boots on the ground or much more than using their bunker-buster bombs," he says. That's because Mr Trump is facing domestic pressure from within his own Republican base, which is "divided" on whether to get involved in another war, Mr Parmeter says. Meanwhile, the G7 countries have also expressed their support for the security of Israel, but have urged for "a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza".
ABC News
15 hours ago
- Politics
- ABC News
Its defences are smashed, its allies are quiet. No-one is going to help Iran
Iran's skies are open, its missile launchers are destroyed, and its allies are silent. Meanwhile, in Israel, restrictions are being relaxed, and citizens are returning to work and public spaces – although Iranian strikes have continued, with some hitting multi-storey buildings and a major hospital. Israel had been expecting a longer campaign and more intense retaliation from the Iranians, but Israeli intelligence operations and a series of strikes last year appear to have successfully weakened Iran's defences. Israeli jets and drones have needed only a few days to do the rest. Iran's "Axis of Resistance", a key tenet of its strategy of "forward defence", has proven impotent. The Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah, which Israel previously considered a more immediate danger than Iran, has done nothing. The group's guided missiles were thought to be Iran's insurance policy against an Israeli or United States attack. But Hezbollah's missile arsenal and weapons factories were badly damaged by a crushing Israeli air campaign last year, and the group felt abandoned by its Iranian sponsors during its hour of need. Now, Hezbollah knows any intervention in this conflict would see the group lose any chance of recovering, most likely dying out as both a political and military force with a whimper rather than a roar. The Shia militias in Iraq — supposedly powerful, heavily armed and aggressive — have also not acted. Only the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who were already firing ballistic missiles at Israel and attacking shipping in the Red Sea before Israel's attack, have maintained some form of token action, with the occasional missile or drone launch. Another ally, the Assad regime in Syria, collapsed late last year, in part because of Israel's success against Hezbollah. Iran's most powerful allies, China and Russia, have not intervened either. Iran has been supplying Russia with drones to use against Ukraine, but Russia has not helped defend against Israeli attacks. "Throughout the history between Iran and Russia, Russia has never been a reliable ally for Iran," Iran researcher Mahnaz Shirali told the ABC. "It has always been more of a dangerous neighbour, constantly eager to seize Iranian territories. It's the ayatollahs' foolishness that made them believe they could count on Russia. "Russia has never truly helped Iran. On the contrary, the Islamic Republic has helped Russia a great deal — providing them with missiles and drones." Yet, Russia refuses to build Iran an air defence system. "As for China, which supposedly supports Iran, it hasn't lifted a finger to help. And that's understandable," Dr Shirali said. "China does $US600 billion in trade with the United States every year. They're never going to sacrifice those $600 billion for the sake of the ayatollahs." While Israel has clearly been planning diligently to attack Iran, the Iranian government and military have proven unprepared and incapable of responding. As Israel did with its devastatingly accurate intelligence against Hezbollah — including booby-trapping pagers and walkie-talkies — Israeli operatives had extensively penetrated Iran, allowing Israel to quickly weaken defences and dominate the skies. Iran, struggling under sanctions and repressing its citizens for years, has repeatedly proven ripe for recruitment and infiltration. The country's advantages — a large, mountainous landmass, a big population and a standing army — have all been nullified by a swift, intense Israeli air campaign. "They thought they could go to war against Israel with their soldiers on the ground. They had absolutely no idea that war in 2025 is fought against an invisible enemy," Dr Shirali said. "They were completely unprepared for this modern form of warfare." None of this is to say Israel's attacks — particularly on scientists and residential areas — are legal under international law, or that Israel had a casus belli (legal justification) for attacking while Iran, which had previously signed a nuclear control deal, was in the middle of negotiating a new agreement with the US. Israel also cannot claim victory. It hasn't managed to disable Iran's secondary uranium enrichment site at Fordow, which is buried deep under a mountain, and Iran maintains a decentralised and extensive network of nuclear scientists and facilities. Iran — and regional neighbours who are watching Israel's attack with great unease — could well decide that it now has no choice but to build a nuclear weapon as soon as possible, as its other forms of deterrence have proven so ineffective. Israel is now switching to attacking elements of the Iranian government, hoping to weaken it enough that Iranians could overthrow it with a popular uprising. So far, that doesn't seem to be materialising, not least because powerful elements of Iran's theocratic regime remain. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which reports directly to the supreme leader, is almost a state within a state, with its own army, air force, navy and cyber directorate that sit outside the Iranian military. It also has lucrative commercial interests and political connections, as well as the infamous "Basij" paramilitary force, which claims it can mobilise up to 600,000 volunteers. The IRGC has violently suppressed previous attempts at democratic revolutions in Iran and could well do so again, despite Israeli attacks. Iran is a multi-ethnic society, and its opposition groups are not all aligned in their aims and interests. Previous western intervention for regime change in the Middle East and South Asia has had disastrous results — the civil war in Libya, the sectarian nightmare of Iraq that gave rise to the Islamic State terror group, and the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan are all in very recent history. Attempts to sow chaos have rewarded the worst actors in recent conflicts, with the most extreme and best-armed being the first to fill the power vacuum. The other powers in the Middle East will also be alarmed at Israel — the region's only nuclear-armed state and a non-signatory to the non-proliferation treaty — using massive force to dictate who can do what. Iran's government could also weather the Israeli — and potential US — assault and seek other ways to retaliate, such as asymmetric attacks, terrorism, or blocking shipping. "These are empty threats, but they're still dangerous," Dr Shirali said. "They have a capacity to cause harm." As Israel has found in Gaza, it is dangerous to begin a campaign without a clear exit strategy. Israel's goals are now unclear, and that's a recipe for further chaos in the region.
LBCI
15 hours ago
- Politics
- LBCI
From Gaza to Tehran: how far will Israel go—and will Iran hold?
Report by Nada Andraos, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian Since Oct. 7, 2023, the Middle East has remained on edge, rocked by ongoing political and military upheaval. Hamas carried out Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, considered one of the most significant operations in the history of resistance against Israeli occupation. But despite the losses it suffered, Israel used the operation to launch multi-front wars under the banner of dismantling the "Axis of Resistance" from its arms to the head: Iran. The dismantling began in Gaza. Israel attacked the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, destroyed a large portion of their military infrastructure, and consequently weakened deterrence along its southern flank. From Gaza to Lebanon, where a fierce war has been waged against Hezbollah months after it opened a "support front." Israel assassinated two Hezbollah secretaries-general, eliminated top military leaders, disabled thousands of members and cadres through the "pager operation," and has continued to operate in the Lebanese arena despite the ceasefire agreement. In Yemen, Iran's "third proxy," Israel has responded to Houthi attacks in close coordination with the United States through strikes targeting the strongholds and facilities of the Ansar Allah movement. After targeting Iran's regional proxies, Israel — backed by the United States — shifted its focus to Tehran, launching an open war at dawn on June 13 aimed, it says, at eliminating Iran's nuclear program and missile arsenal. While it is true that during the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel launched two strikes against Iran — to which Tehran responded within the framework of regional deterrence — the events of last Friday marked a shift to direct conflict. Given the escalating pace, Israel appears determined to dismantle what remains of deterrence and rules of engagement, aiming to cripple Iran's internal capabilities on the one hand and its ability to wage proxy wars on the other. As Israel has explicitly stated that its ultimate objective is the elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to bring down the regime, a crucial question arises: Would assassinating the supreme leader truly lead to the collapse of the regime? Will the head of the regime pursue the confrontation to the end, as Hezbollah did in Lebanon — paying the price with the loss of its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah? Or will Khamenei choose to "drink the poisoned chalice" to preserve the Islamic Republic of Iran, just as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did in 1988 when he agreed to a ceasefire with Iraq?
The National
a day ago
- Politics
- The National
'Iran can defend itself': Will Tehran's proxies join fight against Israel?
As the conflict between Israel and Iran dramatically escalates, with the US considering whether to intervene to back its long-time ally, a pressing question has emerged: will Tehran's proxies rush to the rescue of their patron? Hostilities between Iran and Israel have reached unprecedented levels, entering a seventh day of confrontation, after Israel launched attacks last Friday on Iran claiming to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The strikes prompted a series of retaliatory missile barrages from Iran. Sources in Iran's proxy groups have shared differing views on whether they will join the fight with Iran. A Hezbollah source says it will remain on the sidelines, regardless of whether the US intervenes, while Yemen's Houthi rebels are the only proxy to have announced attacks against Israel in support of Iran. The proxy groups, however, have stressed their autonomy from Tehran. The so-called Axis of Resistance is an Iran-led network that includes Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and armed groups in Iraq, whose aim is to deter Israel from conducting military action and countering its influence in the region. Many of these groups have fought against Iran's enemies in their respective countries. The groups launched attacks against Israel as part of a support campaign for Hamas and the Palestinian people after the Gaza war broke out on October 7, 2023. But months of fighting with Israel, which holds clear military dominance, has considerably eroded the operational capacity of the axis. Hezbollah, once a formidable militia and Iran's most powerful proxy, was battered by nearly 14 months of conflict with Israel that ended in November, leaving much of its chain of command dismantled and its arsenal decimated. The group has made it clear that it does not intend to take part in any retaliatory action to support Iran. Lebanese MP Hassan Fadlallah described Iran as a 'key regional power' that is capable of defending itself, in an interview with pro-Hezbollah outlet Al Mayadeen. 'It does not ask others to fight on its behalf,' he said. The group is under pressure to disarm and faces growing discontent from those in Lebanon who accuse it of dragging the cash-strapped country into a war it could not afford, and causing damage worth several billion dollars. Once a kingmaker, Hezbollah is now grappling with a loss of influence within the Lebanese political scene. A Lebanese official told The National that the army sent a message to Hezbollah, urging it not to intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict and warning against dragging the country into yet another devastating war. 'They said they wouldn't,' the official said. 'We're doing everything we can, calls, meetings, to prevent any escalation,' the official added. 'This is not our war." Some fear a potential US intervention against Iran might compel Hezbollah to join the fight. Statements attributed to an Iranian official suggested that, if the US became directly involved – an idea President Donald Trump has been publicly floating for days – Hezbollah would join forces with Tehran. A Hezbollah source firmly denied the claim. 'I don't think the statement is true … who is this source? Iran can defend itself,' the source told The National. 'This is a Hezbollah decision, not an Iranian decision and unfortunately the media fabricates fake news." Cautious but ready In Iraq, which is home to several Tehran-backed militias that, unlike Hezbollah, remain largely intact, a senior militant leader told The National that the decision to open a front would depend 'on developments". 'The current situation calls for caution and wisdom, but also readiness to respond if Iran comes under full-scale attack,' he said. The militant said US intervention could be a game-changer in how the groups perceive their role in the conflict. 'We advise the United States not to get involved in the war – it has tried before and ended in failure," he said. "Any American aggression against Iran will directly affect Iraq, and Iraqis have the right to defend their sovereignty, religious beliefs and dignity." He warned that any attempt at regime change in Iran – which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown increasing interest in, beyond merely destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities – would lead to regional chaos. 'Iraq lies between two blazing arenas, and the resistance factions will not stand idly by," he added. Yemen's Houthis are the only proxy group to have announced joint military co-operation with Tehran since the recent escalation. The Houthis have launched attacks against Israel and ships in the Red Sea in support of Palestinians in Gaza since October 2023. On Sunday, the group said it fired ballistic missiles at Israel in support of 'the oppressed Palestinian and Iranian peoples". A Yemeni source in the capital Sanaa said there was 'no joint operations room between the Iranians and the Houthis", but rather continued co-ordination. 'When Houthis are required to strike, they carry out the strike independently," the source added. "This is what we've observed in the nature of their operations. This is also what Sanaa and Iranian officials have affirmed since the beginning of the operations, that Yemen acts on its own, deciding when it is in its interest to escalate, de-escalate, or strike a particular area."
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Goldman Sachs: Geopolitical Risk Could Add $10 to Oil Prices
Geopolitics could move Brent crude higher by around $10 per barrel, Goldman Sachs has estimated, from a starting point in the mid-$70s. However, the bank admitted oil could top $90 in case of Iranian supply disruption. Goldman's analysts pointed to the disruption of oil flows via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Yemeni Houthis' attacks on vessels as an example of the fragility of Middle Eastern oil export security. Its base-case scenario, the bank said, remains the same, with Brent averaging $60 per barrel in the final quarter of the year in case of no supply disruption. This scenario, however, has in recent days become increasingly doubtful as President Trump floats the possibility of the United States joining Israel in bombing Iran. 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do,' Trump told media earlier this week, causing a reaction among Republican party supporters who'd rather the U.S. stayed away from that war. 'We can't do this again,' Steven Bannon said at an event in Washington this week. 'We'll tear the country apart. We can't have another Iraq.' Trump has acknowledged the opposition, saying 'I'm not looking to fight. But if it's a choice between them fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do.' Oil prices have retreated slightly, meanwhile, as traders await clarity on the U.S. position. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $76.56 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was trading at $75.22 per barrel. Barclays has warned that crude could surge above $100 per barrel if the war in the Middle East heats up. The bank also said that Brent could hit $85 per barrel if half of Iran's oil exports gets disrupted. Iran exports over 2 million barrels of crude daily, almost exclusively to China. By Irina Slav for More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
