Latest news with #YR4
NDTV
11 hours ago
- Science
- NDTV
'City-Killer' Asteroid May Hit Moon, Hurl Deadly Debris Toward Earth
NASA scientists now believe that asteroid 2024 YR4, once thought to pose a slight threat to Earth, may instead collide with the Moon in the coming years. New calculations suggest a 4.3% chance of impact in 2031. First detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Hawaii, YR4 passed close to Earth just two days earlier. It orbits the Sun every four years. Recent observations in May 2025 from the James Webb Space Telescope estimate the asteroid's size between 174 and 220 feet (53-67 metres), roughly the height of a 10-storey building or the wingspan of a Boeing 747. Earlier estimates ranged from 131 to 295 feet. Data from NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory indicate the likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Moon has steadily risen from 1.7% in February to 3.8% in April, and now to 4.3%. If it does impact the Moon, it's expected to strike the near side, offering a rare chance for scientists to observe crater formation in real time. For now, YR4 is too distant to be tracked by telescopes. It will next approach Earth again in December 2028. "While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time," the researchers wrote in their preliminary report, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is considered rare, once holding over a 1% impact probability-an extremely unusual threat level. NASA data suggests such an event would occur roughly once in 1,000 years. It's been compared to asteroid Apophis, which once ranked Level 4 on the Torino scale. Apophis will pass close to Earth in 2029, offering a rare visual encounter.
UPI
a day ago
- Science
- UPI
NASA raises chance for asteroid to hit the moon
An artist's illustration of the James Webb Space in space. According to new data, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has increased the likelihood that an object called Asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon in 2032. NASA Photo/UPI | License Photo June 19 (UPI) -- NASA has announced that an asteroid about 200 feet in diameter is now slightly more likely to crash into the moon. According to the newest data collected, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has refined the expected course for Asteroid 2024 YR4 and has given it an increased 4.3% probability of striking the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. The original likelihood was at 3.8% probability. The space rock is too far off in space to be detected with ground telescopes, but the James Webb Space Telescope, which orbits the sun, was able to take a new look at the space rock earlier this month before it was obscured from view. It was that opportunity that provided the data that led to the changed forecast. Due to YR4's solar orbit, NASA won't be able to view it again until it comes back around the sun in 2028. According to a research paper submitted to the American Astronomical Society journals and published Monday, should the asteroid hit the moon, it could cause a crater as large as around 3,200 feet and release 6.5 megatons of energy. As much as 220 million pounds of lunar material could be released by such an impact, and then as much as 10% of that ejecta could fall to Earth a few days later, so "meteorites are unlikely, though not impossible" according to the paper, but it would create an "eye-catching" meteor shower. However, any moon bits that do come toward the Earth also could increase the meteoroid impact exposure faced by satellites in near-Earth orbit for as long as a decade.
New York Post
a day ago
- Science
- New York Post
‘City-killer' asteroid hurtling toward moon — this is the terrifying way it could wreak havoc on Earth
Our world could still be rocked indirectly. 'City-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 may no longer be on a collision course with Earth, but it could pose a threat to our planet. Astronomers have upped the odds that the cosmic boulder will crash into the moon, which could potentially cause a cloud of shrapnel to impact Earth-orbiting satellites and other spacecraft, according to a scary new study submitted to the American Astronomy Society Journals. 'We were a little bit surprised at the possibility of there being a substantial amount of material [aimed] at the Earth,' Dr. Paul Wiegert, an astronomy professor at the University of Western Ontario who helmed the research, told the New Scientist. 3 Still from an animation showing asteroid 2024 YR4 as it passes by Earth and heads toward its potential impact with the Moon. NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS Wiegart illustrated these potential outcomes in a series of scary video simulations showing the potential fallout from a lunar crash-landing. First discovered on December 27 of last year, YR4 sparked worldwide concern that it could strike our planet on December 23, 2032, potentially generating enough power to destroy an entire city. At its peak on February 19, YR4 had an impact risk factor of 3.1%, making it one of the most dangerous asteroids on record. And while follow-up observations revealed that YR4 wouldn't hit home, the odds of it striking the Moon recently jumped from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to data by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) by NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies. 3 'We were a little bit surprised at the possibility of there being a substantial amount of material [aimed] at the Earth,' said Dr. Paul Wiegert. NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS Wiegert estimated that the asteroid would hit the Moon at 29,000 mph, creating a blast crater 0.6 miles wide, making it the largest lunar impact in the last 5,000 years. If it strikes just right, our planet's gravity would funnel up to 10% of the resultant debris toward our planet, per the simulations. 'Intuitively, the Earth is actually quite a small target when seen from the moon, and so your intuition is that not very much material would actually hit the Earth, but it turns out that the Earth's gravity can focus that material under certain conditions,' warned Wiegert. This debris field wouldn't threaten the planet itself, but could still have dire consequences for satellites in low orbit. By simulating the shrapnel cloud's potential trajectory 10,000 times, the team discovered that the satellites could sustain a decade's worth of damage in just a few days. 3 Artist's impression of the James Webb Telescope. NASA / SWNS While this barrage might not be enough to take out the satellites entirely, even impacts from small debris particles could potentially impact their functionality. 'If they were to hit a bit of a spacecraft that was a coolant pipe, or a sensor on the spacecraft exposed to space, or an antenna, then suddenly you get a loss of that particular functionality,' warned Mark Burchell, a space science lecturer at the University of Kent, UK 'You can't go and fix a satellite. A minor problem is actually a serious problem.' Satellites wouldn't be the only spacecraft potentially in the line of fire. Wiegert warned that the shrapnel cloud could affect the operations of Moon-orbiting spacecraft such as NASA's proposed Lunar Gateway while material displaced by the collision could potentially fall back to the Moon, impeding, rovers and even jeopardizing astronauts with the Artemis program. Based on this model, Wiegert believes global space agencies should devise plans to deflect asteroids headed for the Moon, as well as Earth. A spokesperson from NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office said that while 'planetary defense is not solely confined to near-Earth space,' it would be 'premature to speculate on potential response options' to 2024 YR4 hitting the moon. Wiegert said that we will be able to refine our models on YR4's orbital trajectory when it hurtles back into view of Earth's telescopes in 2028.
Time of India
a day ago
- Science
- Time of India
‘City killer' asteroid may hit the Moon in December 2032 could threaten satellites around Earth; experts warn
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is not expected to strike Earth, but more and more, scientists worry that it could collide with the Moon. According to the experts at the University of Western Ontario caution that such an impact would hurl more than 100 million kilograms of rubbish into space. This fast-moving lunar material can be a grave hazard to satellites in low Earth orbit employed for communication, GPS, and climate observation and even put astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) at risk. With increased satellite networks and human space activity, the severity of the implications of a Moon impact by asteroid 2024 YR4 calls for immediate international consideration and readiness. City-killer asteroid 2024 YR4 could crash into moon, pose satellite danger When 2024 YR4 was initially monitored, it seemed to be a potential threat to Earth. But subsequent observation eliminated a direct Earth impact. Instead, simulations now indicate a higher chance of it striking the Moon, with probabilities increasing from 3.8% to 4.3%. While that seems low, it is sufficient to lead scientists to track closely the asteroid's path and simulate likely effects. If the asteroid does hit the Moon, the released energy might be the equivalent of 6.5 megatons of TNT-more than 400 times the Hiroshima bomb (0.015 megatons). A 1-kilometer-wide crater would probably be created by the impact, likely somewhere in the southern hemisphere of the Moon. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like What She Did Mid-Air Left Passengers Speechless medalmerit Learn More Undo The collision is thought to shoot approximately 100 million kilograms of lunar rock and dust into space-debris that will not simply disappear into thin air. Of greatest concern is that approximately 10% of the lunar debris may make its way towards Earth within days after impact. Most of it will be minuscule, but particles greater than 0.1 millimeters can be hazardous enough to penetrate or harm satellites and spacecraft. These pieces will remain in orbit, risking long-term damage to space-based infrastructure. Source: X Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact may risk satellites as orbital traffic increases The number of satellites around the Earth is likely to surge exponentially by 2032 due to worldwide expansion in telecommunications, navigation, and observation of the Earth. Most of these satellites will be in low Earth orbit (LEO)—the very zone that would be impacted by debris from a lunar impact. The Western Ontario team of the university ran 10,000 simulations of impacts. In 410 of them, the asteroid struck the Moon head-on, and the next few days exhibited the densest concentrations of potentially destructive space debris. Although the study does not directly estimate the risk to human missions, the ISS itself orbits in LEO, so it is a potential target. Even small high-speed pieces of debris have the potential to cause catastrophic damage to spacecraft and threaten the lives of astronauts. Asteroid 2024 YR4: Variables in the distribution of threat Scientists highlight that a number of variables will determine the size and distribution of the threat: Location of impact on the Moon Speed and direction of asteroid Size of the crater Distribution and velocity of the debris ejected Various permutations of these variables will influence the amount that escapes the Moon's gravity and the amount that gets to Earth's proximity. Asteroid 2024 YR4: Earth may be safe, but our satellites are not Although Earth is not in the path of the asteroid, the indirect consequences of a collision with the Moon are significant enough to justify preparation. Contemporary existence relies on satellites for everything from the GPS and internet access to climate monitoring and scientific information. Any disruption in this system of orbits could have worldwide ramifications. This possible effect is a wake-up call for space agencies to spend money on orbital debris tracking, satellite shielding, and improved risk prediction technologies. Asteroid 2024 YR4 might never graze Earth, but if it crashes into the Moon, it might create havoc in our orbital environment. With over 100 million kilograms of space debris potentially entering Earth's space, the incident highlights just how interdependent celestial bodies are—and how vital it is to track even remote space threats. Also Read | SpaceX's Starship explodes during static fire test at the launch site - is it a major setback for Elon Musk?
Time of India
4 days ago
- Science
- Time of India
Moon at risk? Asteroid the size of Leaning Tower of Pisa might not hit Earth, but odds of it striking the Moon have just increased
In December 2024, astronomers discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 , a space rock that routinely crosses Earth's orbit. Observations by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in May 2024 have refined the asteroid's trajectory, revealing a slightly increased chance of a lunar impact on December 22, 2032, now at 4.3%. While there is no risk of the asteroid impacting Earth in the foreseeable future, scientists are closely monitoring its path and welcome a potential lunar impact as a valuable learning opportunity. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 174 and 220 feet in diameter. This is about the size of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. Early projections indicated a potential Earth collision in 2032, with impact odds peaking at 3.1% in February. Subsequent observations with JWST and ground-based telescopes reduced the Earth impact probability to zero. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Chula Vista: Stunning New 2-Bed Senior Apartments (Take A Peek Inside) Senior Apartments | Search Ads Click Here Undo The probability of a lunar impact, however, has increased. The initial JWST imaging in March reported a 3.8% chance of a lunar collision. "As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve," NASA representatives wrote in the statement. Live Events The asteroid was observed by JWST's Near-Infrared Camera in May. These observations allowed scientists to calculate the space rock's trajectory with greater precision. The range of possible locations for 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032, has decreased as NASA gained more data. This improved the certainty of the asteroid's position. If an asteroid of this size were to impact Earth, it could cause significant damage. It could wipe out a city with the equivalent force of 500 Hiroshima bombs. A collision with the moon would create a new crater. However, it would not be devastating to Earth's satellite. Some scientists view a lunar impact as a positive event. It would provide a valuable opportunity to study asteroid impact prediction. "We've got our fingers crossed for a moon impact," Alan Fitzsimmons , a physics and math professor at Queen's University Belfast in the U.K. who was not involved in the JWST observations, told New Scientist in March. "It would have no effect on Earth, but would allow us to study the formation of a lunar crater by a known asteroid for the very first time." The asteroid is currently moving toward the outer solar system. It is beyond the view of Earth-based telescopes.
