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The Independent
15 hours ago
- Health
- The Independent
Climate change blamed for UK heatwave amid 32C temperatures
Searing temperatures of 32C hitting the UK this week have been made 100 times more likely due to human-caused climate change, scientists have warned. A rapid study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research group found the current heatwave in the south-east of England was around 10 times more likely than without human activity warming the planet. Dr Fredi Otto, from Imperial College London, underscored the severity, warning that heatwaves are "silent killers" and that the impacts of heat are "severely underestimated", leaving the UK unprepared for the conditions expected to persist into the weekend. Experts highlighted that older people, along with those suffering from heart issues, respiratory illnesses, and conditions such as diabetes, face the highest risk of death. They also noted that heatwaves occurring earlier in the summer are particularly deadly, as the population is less acclimatised to coping with warmer conditions. The researchers also identified wildfires as an "emerging risk" for the UK during summer, with conditions increasingly resembling those found in southern Europe. They urged the public to exercise extreme caution with barbecues, cigarettes, and glass, all of which can ignite fires in the hot, dry weather. This study marks only the second time the WWA, known for its rapid assessments of climate change's role in specific extreme weather events, has analysed a forecasted event rather than one that has already occurred. The analysis, which drew on observations for early summer heat in the south east of the UK, found that a heatwave – defined as three days of temperatures above 28C for the region – in June would be expected once every five years today. But without humans warming the atmosphere by around 1.3C since pre-industrial times, such a heatwave would only have occurred about once every 50 years, the study shows. The heatwave was made approximately 2-4C more intense as a result of the overall warming of the planet, meaning the current weather 'just wouldn't have been a heatwave without human-induced warming', Dr Ben Clarke, from Imperial College London, said. Temperatures had been forecast to hit 32C across the south east on Saturday and had already reached that level on Thursday in London. Heat of that level could be expected in June once in 25 years in the current climate, but only once in 2,500 years in June before industrialisation, the researchers said. While the impacts of temperatures rising above 30C are not as severe as the record-breaking heat topping 40C in some places in July 2022, the researchers warned people were still at risk. They urged people to ensure they were drinking enough water, and to encourage elderly relatives to do the same, avoid areas with high air pollution, keep windows and curtains shut during the day, and consider going to cooler public buildings such as museums to protect against the heat. Dr Clarke, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said: 'This heatwave is another reminder that our planet has already heated to a dangerous level. 'We're at 1.3C today, but heading for around 3C this century. 'With every fraction of a degree of warming, the UK will experience hotter, more dangerous heatwaves. 'That means more heat deaths, more pressure on the NHS, more transport disruptions, tougher work conditions and poorer air quality.' Dr Otto, associate professor in climate science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, said: 'We know exactly what has intensified this heatwave – burning oil, gas and coal, which has loaded the atmosphere with planet-heating greenhouse gases. 'It is totally insane we have political leaders in the UK trying to drag us back to the past with calls for more fossil fuels. 'The climate will continue to drive increasingly dangerous heatwaves, fires and floods in the UK until emissions are reduced to net zero globally.' She added that while people working in air-conditioned offices would 'probably be OK' this week, poorer people working outdoors, in kitchens or other hot environments and then returning home to poorly insulated flats would be enduring hot conditions throughout. 'Making our societies more equal is essential to reduce the impacts of climate change,' Dr Otto said.
Euronews
15 hours ago
- Climate
- Euronews
Climate change makes England's 32C June heat 100 times more likely
The 32°C heat expected in large parts of England tomorrow has been made 100 times more likely by human-caused climate change, an extremely rapid scientific analysis shows. Prior to the mass burning of coal, oil and gas, a day reaching 32°C heat in June would be extremely rare in the UK - arriving once every 2,500 years on average. Now, with the world teetering 1.3°C above pre-industrial times, such days will strike once every five years. That's according to the World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international team of scientists who analyse the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events. They typically take longer to produce a full attribution analysis, which uses climate models and weather data. Today's report is a slimmer, lightning-fast piece of research that highlights the 'overlooked threat' of extreme heat on people's health. 'It is totally insane we have political leaders in the UK trying to drag us back to the past with calls for more fossil fuels,' says co-author Dr Friederike Otto, Associate Professor in Climate Science at Imperial College London's Centre for Environmental Policy. 'The climate will continue to drive increasingly dangerousheatwaves, fires and floods in the UK until emissions are reduced to net zero globally.' WWA's analysis follows a Met Office report released on Wednesday, which found the UK's chance of 40°C days has been increasing rapidly and is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. A week of intense heat in the UK is expected to peak on Saturday, with temperatures as high as 34°C possible in eastern England according to the Met Office forecast on Thursday. In the UK, a heatwave is called when temperatures exceed a certain threshold, which varies from region to region, for three consecutive days. In southeast England, that level is 28°C. WWA's study shows that these heatwave conditions are now 10 times more likely due to climate change. Before humans heated the climate with fossil fuels, such events were expected every 50 years. Today, the likelihood is every five years. Overall, June heatwaves are now 2-4°C more intense due to climate change, the scientists say. A previous WWA analysis of the 2022 UK heatwave - when temperatures exceeded 40°C for the first time - found that climate change made the temperatures 2°C hotter and about 100 times more likely. 'Saturday could well end up being the hottest day so far this year, with highs around 33°C locally from Lincolnshire to the London area,' Lars Lowinski, a meteorologist at Weather and Radar who wasn't involved in the study, told Euronews Green earlier in the week. 'This is quite exceptional for June. The highest 21 June so far was in 2017 when 34.5°C was recorded in the London area. The overall June record in the UK is 35.6°C in 1976.' The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued an Amber Heat Health Alert for the whole of England, from midday yesterday until 9am on Monday 23 June, to prepare the health and social care sector. 'For the most vulnerable, temperatures above 28°C are dangerous in the UK, especially in June, before people have acclimatised to hotter weather,' says Maja Vahlberg, technical advisor at Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and WWA report co-author. 'Sadly, most people die from heat indoors and alone, especially older populations and people with underlying health conditions, such as lung or heart disease.' Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, has urged people to 'check on friends, family and neighbours who are more vulnerable and to take sensible precautions while enjoying the sun.' But WWA's report points to more structural issues too, flagging the need for urgent climate adaptation in the UK. Dr Otto describes the way heat risks are magnified by inequality: 'People working in air-conditioned offices will probably be okay this week, but poorer people working outdoors, in kitchens, and in other hot environments endure these conditions all day and then return to poorly insulated flats that can become dangerously hot. 'Making our societies more equal is essential to reduce the impacts of climate change.' Theodore Keeping, wildfire researcher at Imperial College London's Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, also flags the high risk of wildfires this week - given soaring temperatures follow an extremely dry spring. 'People going outside to enjoy the warm weather should not be using fire or disposable barbecues, dispose of cigarette butts carefully and should immediately notify emergency services if they do notice a fire,' he says. Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study released today. The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gas, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year. 'Things aren't just getting worse. They're getting worse faster,' said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. 'We're actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there's a silver lining. I don't think there really is one in this one.' That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heatwaves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures. In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tonnes (130 billion metric tonnes) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said. The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said. 'It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,' said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. 'I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.' The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth's energy imbalance, which is now 25 per cent higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said. Earth's energy imbalance 'is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,' Hausfather said. Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. 'It is very clearly accelerating. It's worrisome,' he said. The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works. That 1.5 is 'a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,' said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded. Crossing the threshold "means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the US and around the world - unprecedented heatwaves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,' said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study. Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn't focus on that particular threshold. 'Missing it does not mean the end of the world,' Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that 'each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.'
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Searing heat this week made ‘100 times more likely' by climate change
Searing temperatures of 32C this week have been made 100 times more likely because of human-caused climate change, scientists said. A rapid study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research group also found the current heatwave in the south-east of England was around 10 times more likely than without human activity warming the planet. Dr Fredi Otto, from Imperial College London, warned heatwaves are 'silent killers', with the impacts of heat 'severely underestimated' and the UK unprepared for the kind of conditions hitting the country into the weekend. Older people are at the highest risk of death, as well as those with heart issues, respiratory illnesses and conditions such as diabetes, while this kind of heatwave earlier in the summer is more deadly as people are less acclimatised to coping with the warmer conditions, the experts warned. And wildfires are an 'emerging risk' in the summer in the UK, with conditions becoming more like southern Europe, the researchers said as they urged people to be very careful about barbecues, cigarettes and glass which can all ignite fires in the hot, dry weather. The study by WWA, which seeks to provide rapid assessments of the role of climate change in specific extreme weather events such as heatwaves or rainstorms that lead to flooding, is only the second time it has analysed an event as forecasted rather than one that has just happened. The analysis, which drew on observations for early summer heat in the south east of the UK, found that a heatwave – defined as three days of temperatures above 28C for the region – in June would be expected once every five years today. But without humans warming the atmosphere by around 1.3C since pre-industrial times, such a heatwave would only have occurred about once every 50 years, the study shows. The heatwave was made approximately 2-4C more intense as a result of the overall warming of the planet, meaning the current weather 'just wouldn't have been a heatwave without human-induced warming', Dr Ben Clarke, from Imperial College London, said. Temperatures had been forecast to hit 32C across the south east on Saturday and had already reached that level on Thursday in London. Heat of that level could be expected in June once in 25 years in the current climate, but only once in 2,500 years in June before industrialisation, the researchers said. While the impacts of temperatures rising above 30C are not as severe as the record-breaking heat topping 40C in some places in July 2022, the researchers warned people were still at risk. They urged people to ensure they were drinking enough water, and to encourage elderly relatives to do the same, avoid areas with high air pollution, keep windows and curtains shut during the day, and consider going to cooler public buildings such as museums to protect against the heat. Dr Clarke, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said: 'This heatwave is another reminder that our planet has already heated to a dangerous level. 'We're at 1.3C today, but heading for around 3C this century. 'With every fraction of a degree of warming, the UK will experience hotter, more dangerous heatwaves. 'That means more heat deaths, more pressure on the NHS, more transport disruptions, tougher work conditions and poorer air quality.' Dr Otto, associate professor in climate science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, said: 'We know exactly what has intensified this heatwave – burning oil, gas and coal, which has loaded the atmosphere with planet-heating greenhouse gases. 'It is totally insane we have political leaders in the UK trying to drag us back to the past with calls for more fossil fuels. 'The climate will continue to drive increasingly dangerous heatwaves, fires and floods in the UK until emissions are reduced to net zero globally.' She added that while people working in air conditioned offices would 'probably be OK' this week, poorer people working outdoors, in kitchens or other hot environments and then returning home to poorly insulated flats would be enduring hot conditions throughout. 'Making our societies more equal is essential to reduce the impacts of climate change,' Dr Otto said.
The Independent
17 hours ago
- Climate
- The Independent
Searing heat this week made ‘100 times more likely' by climate change
Searing temperatures of 32C this week have been made 100 times more likely because of human-caused climate change, scientists said. A rapid study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research group also found the current heatwave in the south-east of England was around 10 times more likely than without human activity warming the planet. Dr Fredi Otto, from Imperial College London, warned heatwaves are 'silent killers', with the impacts of heat 'severely underestimated' and the UK unprepared for the kind of conditions hitting the country into the weekend. Older people are at the highest risk of death, as well as those with heart issues, respiratory illnesses and conditions such as diabetes, while this kind of heatwave earlier in the summer is more deadly as people are less acclimatised to coping with the warmer conditions, the experts warned. And wildfires are an 'emerging risk' in the summer in the UK, with conditions becoming more like southern Europe, the researchers said as they urged people to be very careful about barbecues, cigarettes and glass which can all ignite fires in the hot, dry weather. The study by WWA, which seeks to provide rapid assessments of the role of climate change in specific extreme weather events such as heatwaves or rainstorms that lead to flooding, is only the second time it has analysed an event as forecasted rather than one that has just happened. The analysis, which drew on observations for early summer heat in the south east of the UK, found that a heatwave – defined as three days of temperatures above 28C for the region – in June would be expected once every five years today. But without humans warming the atmosphere by around 1.3C since pre-industrial times, such a heatwave would only have occurred about once every 50 years, the study shows. The heatwave was made approximately 2-4C more intense as a result of the overall warming of the planet, meaning the current weather 'just wouldn't have been a heatwave without human-induced warming', Dr Ben Clarke, from Imperial College London, said. Temperatures had been forecast to hit 32C across the south east on Saturday and had already reached that level on Thursday in London. Heat of that level could be expected in June once in 25 years in the current climate, but only once in 2,500 years in June before industrialisation, the researchers said. While the impacts of temperatures rising above 30C are not as severe as the record-breaking heat topping 40C in some places in July 2022, the researchers warned people were still at risk. They urged people to ensure they were drinking enough water, and to encourage elderly relatives to do the same, avoid areas with high air pollution, keep windows and curtains shut during the day, and consider going to cooler public buildings such as museums to protect against the heat. Dr Clarke, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said: 'This heatwave is another reminder that our planet has already heated to a dangerous level. 'We're at 1.3C today, but heading for around 3C this century. 'With every fraction of a degree of warming, the UK will experience hotter, more dangerous heatwaves. 'That means more heat deaths, more pressure on the NHS, more transport disruptions, tougher work conditions and poorer air quality.' Dr Otto, associate professor in climate science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, said: 'We know exactly what has intensified this heatwave – burning oil, gas and coal, which has loaded the atmosphere with planet-heating greenhouse gases. 'It is totally insane we have political leaders in the UK trying to drag us back to the past with calls for more fossil fuels. 'The climate will continue to drive increasingly dangerous heatwaves, fires and floods in the UK until emissions are reduced to net zero globally.' She added that while people working in air conditioned offices would 'probably be OK' this week, poorer people working outdoors, in kitchens or other hot environments and then returning home to poorly insulated flats would be enduring hot conditions throughout. 'Making our societies more equal is essential to reduce the impacts of climate change,' Dr Otto said.
Daily Mail
17 hours ago
- Climate
- Daily Mail
Scientists blame climate change for the UK heatwave: 32°C temperatures were made 100 TIMES more likely by global warming.
As the UK braces for the first heatwave of 2025, scientists warn that climate change is responsible. This weekend's 32°C (90°F) forecast was made 100 times more likely by global warming, according to the research group World Weather Attribution. Before humans began to alter the climate with fossil fuels, the UK would only see these temperatures in June once every 2,500 years. Today, Britons should expect to be hit by similar life-threatening extremes once every 25 years. Due to human activity, the planet's climate is now 1.3°C (2.34°F) warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution. This has made heatwaves like the one the UK is currently facing both more severe and more frequent. Historically, a June heatwave with three or more days above 28°C (82.4°F) would only happen about once every 50 years in the UK. Now, every June has a 20 per cent chance of experiencing a heatwave - 10 times more likely than in the pre-industrial period. Scientists found that three-day heatwaves in southeast England are now 3°C (5.4°F) hotter due to human-caused climate change heating the planet This week, the UK has experienced prolonged and intense heat building to a peak over the weekend. The current forecast predicts maximum temperatures to reach 32°C (90°F) in some locations, with heatwave thresholds likely to be exceeded across the country. The hottest area, Humberside, is predicted to reach 33°C (91.4°F) on Saturday, while London exceeds 30°C (86°F) until Monday. On Thursday, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued an amber heat alert for the whole of the UK, warning that there could be a 'rise in deaths'. In a new report, World Weather Attribution finds that these temperatures were made hotter and more likely by human-caused climate change. Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-lead of World Weather Attribution, says: 'We know exactly what has intensified this heatwave - burning oil, gas and coal, which has loaded the atmosphere with planet-heating greenhouse gases.' Overall, June heatwaves are now about 2-4°C (3.6-7.2°F) more intense due to climate change. In the report, the researchers warn that this is enough of a difference to turn June's forecast from 'warm sunny weather into dangerous heat'. While many people might be looking forward to enjoying the hot weather over the weekend, heatwaves are the deadliest extreme event in the world and kill hundreds of thousands each year. Professor Mike Tipton, a human physiologist from the University of Portsmouth who was not involved with the study, says: 'The human body is not designed to tolerate prolonged exposure to this sort of extreme heat. 'We know that when temperatures rise above 30 degrees there is a spike in excess deaths, particularly in vulnerable groups, and unfortunately we are likely to see that again in the coming days and weeks as the mercury once again rises to these dangerous levels.' Heatwaves are especially dangerous in June when people have not yet had a chance to acclimate to the heat. This is especially problematic for the elderly and infirm who might not be able to get outside to cool off or monitor their own temperature. During 2022, the UK experienced its most deadly heatwave on record when a record temperature of 40.3°C (104.5°F) was recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire. More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the four-day peak of the heatwave, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022. Professor Tipton says: 'With the evidence that 32-degree days in June are now 100 times more likely, it is undeniable that climate change is now costing British lives.' This comes after a study conducted by the Met Office predicted that summers rivalling the famous 1976 heatwave could become the norm as the climate continues to warm. During that summer, the UK spent a sweltering fortnight above the heatwave threshold of 28°C (82°F). Looking ahead, the Met Office warns that the UK might spend two-thirds of the summer at those temperatures, with continuous heatwaves lasting up to a month. The study warned there is now a 50/50 chance of the UK hitting 40°C again in the next 12 years, with a maximum of 46.6°C (115.9°F) now 'plausible' in today's climate. World Weather Attribution also warns that climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires in the UK. Theodore Keeping, wildfire researcher at Imperial College, says: 'Hotter temperatures mean an exponential increase in the evaporation of moisture from vegetation. 'This leads to much drier conditions, and results in a higher chance of wildfires starting and spreading as leaf litter and grasses become tinder dry.' The UK is already in the midst of a record year for wildfires, smashing the all-time record in the first four months of the year. Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, says: 'We're in the midst of a record-breaking year for wildfires, with exceptionally severe fire risk forecast for this weekend, bringing home the reality of continuing to pump carbon emissions into the atmosphere.' Ahead of this weekend's heatwave, emergency services around the country have issued warnings about the increased risk of fires. According to the Met Office, the fire severity risk is currently 'very high' in many places and 'high' in others. Mr Keeping adds: 'People going outside to enjoy the warm weather should not be using fire or disposable barbecues, dispose of cigarette butts carefully and should immediately notify emergency services if they do notice a fire.
