Latest news with #UniversityofHawaiiEconomicResearchOrganization
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hawaii keiki face mixed trends in well-being vs. mainland peers
Hawaii's children are increasingly affected by housing instability and parental job insecurity, ranking the state among the worst in the nation for economic well-being, according to the 2025 KIDS COUNT Data Book released Monday by the Annie E. Casey Foundation. The annual report, now in its 36th year, evaluates child well-being across four categories—economic well-being, education, health, and family and community—using 16 key indicators. Hawaii ranked 24th overall in the nation, a slight improvement from 29th in 2024, but trends in housing and employment signal urgent challenges ahead. More than one in three children in Hawaii lived in households burdened by high housing costs in 2023—the fifth-worst rate in the country. Though the state saw a slight improvement in housing cost burden from 38 % in 2019 to 35 % in 2023, the issue remains more severe than the national average of 30 %. At the same time, the share of children whose parents lacked secure employment jumped from 24 % to 28 % over the same period, diverging from the national trend, which saw a modest improvement. Hawaii's rank in this category dropped from 16th to 36th in the nation. 'It took the lowest-income families a decade to recover from the Great Recession, and now we are once again facing the threat of a greater share of our keiki growing up in economic hardship, which can have harmful lifelong effects on their well-being, ' said Ivette Rodriguez Stern, junior specialist at the University of Hawaii Center on the Family. 'Without bold action from our leaders, it will be difficult for our children and their families to climb out of the upcoming economic hole they're likely to experience.' The warning comes as the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization predicts a potential recession, and as proposed federal budget cuts threaten to push thousands of local families out of vital food and health care programs. Deborah Zysman, executive director of Hawaii Children's Action Network, said the report's findings must serve as a call to action. 'Year after year, the KIDS COUNT Data Book reminds us that more can and must be done to support the economic well-being of Hawai 'i's children and their families. With the looming threat of a recession and harsh cuts to crucial programs, our state's leaders must act now to prevent our children's well-being from deteriorating further.' Education indicators were another weak spot for Hawaii, with the state ranking 29th in this domain. The share of fourth graders not proficient in reading rose to 68 %, slightly better than the national average of 70 % but still trending in the wrong direction. Eighth grade math proficiency worsened from 72 % not proficient in 2019 to 77 % in 2024—worse than the national rate of 73 %. Preschool access remained stagnant, with 54 % of 3-and 4-year-olds not enrolled, matching the national average. However, on-time high school graduation improved slightly, with 86 % of students graduating on time in 2022 compared with 85 % in 2019. Where Hawaii shines is in the health of its children. The state ranked 10th in the nation, with only 3 % of children lacking health insurance—the third lowest rate nationally—and one of the lowest child and teen death rates in the country, improving from 24 per 100, 000 in 2019 to 18 in 2023. Despite those strengths, the share of low birth-weight babies increased slightly from 8.4 % to 8.7 %, and childhood obesity worsened, with 29 % of children ages 10 to 17 considered overweight or obese—just below the national rate of 31 %. The state also ranked 14th in the family and community domain. The state's teen birth rate dropped significantly from 16 to 11 per 1, 000, and the percentage of children living in high-poverty areas improved from 5 % to 4 %. The rate of children in single-parent households held steady at 34 %, matching the national figure. Overall, experts say the report offers a critical snapshot of the challenges and opportunities facing Hawaii's youngest residents. The full 2025 KIDS COUNT Data Book is available at and data for Hawaii can be found at.
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gov. Green heading to D.C., hopes Hawaii can avoid tariffs
HONOLULU (KHON2) — Hawaii Governor Josh Green is headed to Washington, D.C., on Monday, May 19, hoping to convince the President to ease tariff impacts on the islands. 'Hawaii does not want tariffs in general, and our small businesses don't need them,' Gov. Green said of his upcoming trip. 'Again, that's something I'll try to impress upon the President, and I have already spoken with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week or two weeks ago, and I think it will settle down.' Businesses doing what they can as effects from tariffs expected to hit soon This comes just days after the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization released a forecast that projected a mild recession due to federal policies. 'If the tariffs do cause a slowdown, we could see two or three quarters of recession, and that would affect us because if travelers don't travel, if they don't come to Hawaii, we're seeing a kind of a little dip right now in international travel. It, of course, could hurt our bottom line,' Gov. Green said. The Governor is also encouraging Canadians to consider policy differences between the state and federal governments. 'I wanna say to Canadians out there, I love you guys. I love Rush, and I love hockey. Please keep coming to Hawaii. We are not a part of that discussion.' Another aspect of his trip will be speaking to lawmakers at the Homeland Security Committee's discussion about vaccinations. He also hopes to lobby for avoiding Medicare cuts, which have been a prominent part of Republican negotiations in the House of Representatives.'Right now, they're litigating whether or not the COVID response was authentic and whether it was needed,' Gov. Green said. 'I'm going to follow five individuals that have been called by the majority, and then I'm going to rebut their testimony and talk about what we saw in Hawaii, how we came together, how we were careful with mask wearing. Vaccinations were at ninety percent in Hawaii versus eighty percent, with the lowest mortality rate. We protected our kupuna. So, I'll be sharing that information, and we'll probably talk about vaccinations in general.' More issues with the federal government were recently decided on, when the state's land board rejected the U.S. Army's extension of its lease of the Pohakuloa Training Area on the Big Island, leaving the future of the military's training in Hawaiʻi unclear. 'We have to have the right environmental assessment,' Gov. Green said. 'That's why our Department of Land and Natural Resources folks felt that it was an inadequate assessment. That sends us to the next stage, which is how can we negotiate possibly a land swap that is beneficial to Hawaii. My feeling is there should be a smaller footprint overall, which is possible now with added technology. We do care deeply about our security presence in the Pacific. We also care deeply about the Aina. And most importantly, we care about our people, which is, in this case, the Hawaiian people who will feel that we've not been thoughtful about them or their history if we don't cut the right kind of agreement. So all those things are in play. We have to be careful because now we as we go to a possible land transfer or land swap discussion, we still have to be mindful of the environment, and we also have to make sure that we don't have the federal government just completely roll over us and take the land, through eminent domain. So this is a complicated one.' Check out more news from around Hawaii The Army's land leases on Pohakuloa Training Area, Kahuku, Makua and Poamoho are currently set to expire in 2029. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hawaii home affordability worsens despite condo price drop
HONOLULU (KHON2) — Buying and renting homes in Hawaii continues to be a challenge for most residents, according to the latest Housing Factbook released by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO). Police searching for suspects in armed home invasion in Nuuanu Economists say fewer than 25% of households earn enough to afford a single-family home in the state, underscoring ongoing concerns about housing condominium prices have dipped slightly, experts warn that the overall outlook remains troubling. 'The bad news hidden within that good news is part of that is this mortgage-era home insurance crisis,' said UHERO economist Justin Tyndall. 'The pullback of insurers unwilling to provide insurance to condos means a lot of people can't qualify for a mortgage, which has zapped some demand and is partially why prices have gone down.' Download the free KHON2 app for iOS or Android to stay informed on the latest news Meanwhile, UHERO reports that rents continue to rise across the state, though at a slower pace than in previous years. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Mild recession forecast for Hawaii economy
University of Hawaii economists expect the state economy to begin gradually contracting later this year due to federal policy impacts hurting tourism, employment and personal income. The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization forecasts a mild state recession to occur before the end of 2025 and stretch into 2026, according to a report released publicly today. UHERO's report said global tariffs being imposed by President Donald Trump will have knock-on effects that depress U.S. and international tourism to Hawaii while federal spending and job cuts in the state also ding the local economy. 'Hawaii's economic outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as expansive federal policy shifts look poised to tip the local economy into a mild recession, ' the report said. The report also warned that the anticipated economic decline in Hawaii could be worse. 'Risks remain exceptionally large : sustained tariffs, delayed policy reversals, and global backlash to U.S. actions could deepen the downturn, ' UHERO said in its forecast. A month before Trump took office in January, UHERO had forecast that Hawaii's economy, after accounting for inflation, would grow by 2.9 % this year and then 2.5 % in 2026. The new report revised those figures to 1.1 % growth this year followed by a 0.3 % decline in 2026. A 0.3 % dip represents a loss of $313 million in produced goods and services after accounting for inflation in Hawaii's estimated $117 billion economy. UHERO also forecasts that the number of people with jobs statewide will fall by 5, 100 in 2026, representing a 0.8 % decline that boosts Hawaii's unemployment rate to 3.6 % in 2026 from a projected 3.1 % this year. For the first three months of this year, the unemployment rate has been a hair under 3 %. Personal income is expected to dip 0.2 % in 2026 after accounting for inflation, representing a loss of about $177 million in household earnings. If Hawaii's economy shrinks in 2026, it would be the second annual decline in six years but much lighter than the crushing 10.4 % downturn in 2020 brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the expected coming loss in the economy is attributed to what had already been a weakening in tourism before dramatic changes in federal policy were announced. UHERO said impacts from new federal policies should further hurt the biggest driver in the local economy. The report forecasts that the number of visitors arriving by plane will decline by 2.2 % this year to 9.47 million, and then by 1.9 % in 2026 to 9.29 million. 'Although not everyone is employed in tourism, tourism flows throughout our economy, through secondary and flow-through effects, ' Steven Bond-Smith, one of several UHERO economists who contributed to the report, said Thursday during a news conference. 'So people are affected by that slowdown in tourism even if they're not directly employed in the tourism sector.' Bond-Smith also said negative impacts on the local economy are coming from federal spending and job cuts locally. 'So that creates some slowing in the economy as well, ' he said. Peter Fuleky, another UHERO economist and report author, added that businesses and consumers in Hawaii face uncertainties that can lead to them pulling back on spending, contributing to a broad economic downturn. 'So the reaction typically to uncertainty is caution, ' he said. 'Caution means retrenchment of consumption … and that has macroeconomic effects for everyone, right ?' UHERO's forecast anticipates the federal government backing off from extremely high tariffs Trump announced for many countries April 2 and then delayed for 90 days while leaving in place a 10 % tariff on imports from countries except for China, where a 145 % tariff exists. Fuleky said that even the 10 % tariff rate globally represents a significant increase that will be a drag on the U.S. economy and produce negative impacts on Hawaii's economy. One bright spot noted in the forecast is the strength of the local construction industry. Some materials are expected to cost more because of tariffs, but Justin Tyndall, another UHERO economist and report author, said he does not expect any freezes on big projects that include Pearl Harbor shipyard improvements, state government work and housing towers. 'I think generally the construction outlook looks pretty stable and unaffected by federal policy, ' he said. 'In the longer term if we do enter a sustained economic downturn, inevitably there'll be cutbacks everywhere, potentially including (construction ).' UHERO's report forecasts that Hawaii's economy will rebound in 2027 with 0.9 % growth.
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hawaii residents, businesses to feel tariff impacts
HONOLULU (KHON2) — The stock market nosedived on Thursday, April 3, after President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on countries around the globe. Economists said your wallet might feel the pain sooner than you think, and here at home, local businesses will feel the squeeze with some warning the tariffs could be the final straw for struggling shops. Hawaii officials preparing for tariff effects on construction Officials said the full impacts of the tariffs will likely be seen in the coming weeks and months. 'Hawaii will be heavily impacted compared to the continent because we need to ship everything in,' explained Tina Yamaki, Retail Merchants of Hawaii president. Trump announced a 10% baseline tax on imports from all countries and higher tariffs on dozens of others that run trade surpluses with the U.S. This includes a 54% tariff on goods from China. As an example, a $10 t-shirt from China with a 54% tariff on it could now cost the consumer $15.40. 'At the end, the consumer ends up paying more and ends up paying it because as retailers, we can't absorb it all [the costs],' Yamaki explained.'We're already one of the most expensive states to live in, and this is just going to compound it,' she added. 'We probably will see more businesses closing.' Everything from food, clothes, cars, furniture, appliances and pharmaceuticals, even items made in the U.S. will cost more if it uses copper or aluminum or other products from other countries. 'At this level of tariffs, if they stay in place, we're talking about basically cutting into people's disposable income by $4,000 or $5,000 for the average household,' explained University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization Executive Director Carl Bonham. He said that could impact the tourism industry, with visitors opting out of non-essential travel. Places like Maui could see another blow. 'Certainly have been some cancelations by Canadian visitors in Hawaii, and honestly, the loss of Canadian visitors after the Maui wildfire was was consequential, so this just aggravates that and then if their economy goes into recession, it just, sort of piles on.' Check out more news from around Hawaii Bonham said some local businesses could benefit from the tariffs like Kona coffee competing with other countries now with higher costs. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
