Latest news with #UnifiedPaymentsInterface
Hans India
2 days ago
- Business
- Hans India
Modi's 11 years: Major feats accompanied big minuses
The assessment of Narendra Modi's 11 years as Prime Minister, however fair and balanced, runs the risk of being disparaged by one ideological camp or the other. Yet, a nuanced and objective analysis of such an important person is imperative, particularly given Modi's significant impact on India's political, economic, and social landscape. One cannot deny that his tenure has seen several notable achievements, particularly in areas like economic management, infrastructure development, national defense, and internal security. From the outset, his administration emphasised fiscal prudence. Despite global headwinds, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Indian economy has shown resilience. Major economic reforms such as the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code were important structural steps, even if their execution faced challenges. The push for digital payments, particularly through the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), has made India a global leader in fintech innovation. Infrastructure development has also been a cornerstone of Modi's governance. Highways, airports, and railways have seen major expansion, and the electrification of villages has proceeded at an impressive pace. The Gati Shakti initiative aimed at integrating infrastructure planning and execution is one of the more ambitious and strategic moves in recent years. In terms of national defence, Operation Sindoor and earlier surgical strikes in response to cross-border terrorism reflect a more assertive military and diplomatic posture. Modi's government has been keen on portraying India as a rising global power, with a more muscular foreign policy and defense strategy. On internal security, one of the least discussed yet significant achievements of the Modi government have been the near elimination of the Maoist insurgency in central and eastern India. What was once a serious internal security challenge now appears to have been brought under control, thanks in part to coordinated security operations and development initiatives in affected regions. However, the Modi era has also raised serious concerns in several areas critical to a healthy democracy. Press freedom has increasingly come under threat, with India falling in global press freedom rankings. Journalists critical of the government often face intimidation, legal harassment, or worse. The space for dissent has noticeably shrunk, with prominent civil society organizations and activists finding themselves under scrutiny, raids, or incarceration. Individual freedoms and civil liberties have also faced challenges. In Jammu and Kashmir, the abrogation of Article 370 was a significant political move, but the prolonged communications blackout and detentions that followed raised serious questions about democratic norms. Equally troubling has been the apparent weakening of institutions. The autonomy of the Election Commission, judiciary, and investigative agencies like the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is being questioned. The agencies like ED and CBI have frequently been accused of targeting Opposition leaders. In conclusion, Modi's tenure as Prime Minister has been a complex and consequential chapter in India's history. His government has made undeniable progress in economic modernization, infrastructure, national security, and internal order. Yet, these gains have come amid concerns over shrinking democratic space, erosion of institutional independence, and constraints on freedoms. Whether history ultimately judges his legacy favorably will depend on which of these competing forces—development or democratic regression—ends up defining the long-term trajectory of the nation. For now, a fair assessment would characterize his record as mixed but remains satisfactory.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Bernstein predicts Paytm shares to rally by 23%, cites ‘several near-term catalysts'
Global brokerage firm Bernstein has assigned a target price of Rs 1,100 to Paytm, signalling a significant 23.4% upside potential for the stock from its Wednesday closing price. The firm maintained an "Outperform" rating on Paytm, citing several key catalysts expected to drive the stock higher in the near term. ADVERTISEMENT In its analysis, Bernstein projects that Paytm's earnings per share (EPS) growth will follow a non-linear trajectory, supported by current revenue lines growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20%, while indirect expenses are expected to grow at a more modest CAGR of 10%. This, Bernstein highlights, could lead to an EPS of INR 70 by FY30E, bringing the stock price closer to the target of Rs 1,100. Here's what Bernstein highlighted:Non-linear EPS growth: Bernstein's analysis of Paytm's future growth is underpinned by a base case that assumes a CAGR of 20% in current revenue lines, with indirect expenses growing at around a 10% would translate to a target EPS of INR 70 by FY30E, which supports the target price of INR 1,100. Bernstein expects several near-term catalysts to drive this potential upside. ADVERTISEMENT Bernstein projects that direct costs for Paytm will grow at a CAGR of 16% (FY25-30E), while indirect expenses are anticipated to increase at a 10% CAGR. This is expected to result in a 22% revenue CAGR, aided by an increasing share of high-margin lending emphasises the stability of Paytm's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) market share, along with unchanged net payments margin (NPM). The brokerage believes that the potential rise in NPM from an increased share of UPI payments could offset the impact of a higher share of UPI payments in Paytm's payments mix. ADVERTISEMENT Also read: Mukesh Ambani's masterstroke: Rs 500 crore bet delivers Rs 9,000 crore windfall gain for Reliance Industries Bernstein forecasts that loan disbursal will grow to around 3.6x FY24 volume. This assumes that Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) products do not revive, and the volume of personal and merchant loans disbursed on the platform will grow at a 35% CAGR between FY25E and FY30E, which will drive significant revenue for the expects a 15% CAGR in Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) for Paytm, driven by improvements in consumer engagement and platform usability. The firm suggests that near-term catalysts could help the company grow MTUs, potentially benefiting from a revival of its Payment Aggregator (PA) license application. ADVERTISEMENT Despite the optimistic outlook, Bernstein also highlights a number of key risks that could impact Paytm's future trajectory. These include: A possible return to a high operating expenditure (opex) growth trajectory, driven by increased competition in the market or the pursuit of "moonshot" projects The inability to halt the decline in Paytm's market share in UPI payments, coupled with a potential deterioration in the company's loan distribution business Regulatory changes that could further impact Paytm's operations, particularly any that would weaken its loan distribution business. Beyond the base case scenario, Bernstein identifies significant upside potential if Paytm can capitalise on additional opportunities. These include the potential revival of Paytm's BNPL product and approval for its Payment Aggregator (PA) license. ADVERTISEMENT The brokerage firm also notes that the approval for the PA license could signal a higher probability of Paytm eventually obtaining an NBFC license, although it believes the probability of these "moonshot" options playing out remains shares of Paytm closed 3% higher at Rs 891.30 on the BSE on Wednesday. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Bernstein predicts Paytm shares to rally by 23%, cites ‘several near-term catalysts'
Global brokerage firm Bernstein has assigned a target price of Rs 1,100 to Paytm , signalling a significant 23.4% upside potential for the stock from its Wednesday closing price. The firm maintained an "Outperform" rating on Paytm, citing several key catalysts expected to drive the stock higher in the near term. In its analysis, Bernstein projects that Paytm's earnings per share (EPS) growth will follow a non-linear trajectory, supported by current revenue lines growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20%, while indirect expenses are expected to grow at a more modest CAGR of 10%. This, Bernstein highlights, could lead to an EPS of INR 70 by FY30E, bringing the stock price closer to the target of Rs 1,100. Here's what Bernstein highlighted: Base case Non-linear EPS growth: Bernstein's analysis of Paytm's future growth is underpinned by a base case that assumes a CAGR of 20% in current revenue lines, with indirect expenses growing at around a 10% CAGR. This would translate to a target EPS of INR 70 by FY30E, which supports the target price of INR 1,100. Bernstein expects several near-term catalysts to drive this potential upside. Total Cost CAGR of 13% Bernstein projects that direct costs for Paytm will grow at a CAGR of 16% (FY25-30E), while indirect expenses are anticipated to increase at a 10% CAGR. This is expected to result in a 22% revenue CAGR, aided by an increasing share of high-margin lending revenues. Stable UPI market share and payments margin Bernstein emphasises the stability of Paytm's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) market share, along with unchanged net payments margin (NPM). The brokerage believes that the potential rise in NPM from an increased share of UPI payments could offset the impact of a higher share of UPI payments in Paytm's payments mix. Also read: Mukesh Ambani's masterstroke: Rs 500 crore bet delivers Rs 9,000 crore windfall gain for Reliance Industries Loan disbursal growth Bernstein forecasts that loan disbursal will grow to around 3.6x FY24 volume. This assumes that Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) products do not revive, and the volume of personal and merchant loans disbursed on the platform will grow at a 35% CAGR between FY25E and FY30E, which will drive significant revenue for the company. Improved Consumer MTUs Bernstein expects a 15% CAGR in Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) for Paytm, driven by improvements in consumer engagement and platform usability. The firm suggests that near-term catalysts could help the company grow MTUs, potentially benefiting from a revival of its Payment Aggregator (PA) license application. Key risks Despite the optimistic outlook, Bernstein also highlights a number of key risks that could impact Paytm's future trajectory. These include: A possible return to a high operating expenditure (opex) growth trajectory, driven by increased competition in the market or the pursuit of "moonshot" projects The inability to halt the decline in Paytm's market share in UPI payments, coupled with a potential deterioration in the company's loan distribution business Regulatory changes that could further impact Paytm's operations, particularly any that would weaken its loan distribution business. The options for bigger upside Beyond the base case scenario, Bernstein identifies significant upside potential if Paytm can capitalise on additional opportunities. These include the potential revival of Paytm's BNPL product and approval for its Payment Aggregator (PA) license. The brokerage firm also notes that the approval for the PA license could signal a higher probability of Paytm eventually obtaining an NBFC license, although it believes the probability of these "moonshot" options playing out remains low. The shares of Paytm closed 3% higher at Rs 891.30 on the BSE on Wednesday.
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Andy Mukherjee: Digital payments competition may help India reduce bank frauds
Bank frauds in India have tripled in value. But that's only because some of the cases reported previously were re-investigated and appeared in the new data. More worrying than the surge in the amount, however, is the rise in the number of payment scams over the past couple of years. The solution lies in rewarding better security. Most of the stealing from banks occurs the traditional way: via loans obtained with the help of forged documents or bribes. Customers, though, are increasingly at risk of being cheated when they make payments. According to the central bank's latest annual report, more than half of frauds took place in digital or card-based transactions, even though they accounted for only 1.4% of the $4 billion in scams. Also Read: Banking on trust, losing billions: India's bank fraud epidemic needs urgent answers And these are just the situations where the sums involved were ₹1 lakh ($1,160) or more. Thanks to a wildly popular smartphone-based payments network, much smaller values are being exchanged online for person-to-person and person-to-merchant transactions. The so-called Unified Payments Interface (UPI) is instantaneous, available 24/7 and mostly imposes no cost on users. It's logging more than a million cases of hustle and con annually, according to separate government data. And this is just what's getting reported. Unless they are extremely careful, the more affluent depositors don't even come to know that they're being slowly bled. The growth of UPI, which handles more than $3 trillion a year, puts enormous pressure on the system. It was bound to attract criminals. Payment intermediaries have warned customers of the various ways— from simple phishing attacks to sophisticated cloning of SIM cards—in which they may fall prey to swindlers. Yet, the Indian banking system can't shrug off its responsibility with a 'buyer beware.' It needs stronger guard-rails. Anyone can set up a virtual ID to ask customers for money online. That freedom is welcome. But not when it turns out that the bank account linked to 'amazon@pockets' belongs to Ckjxh Fiddbh, which doesn't appear to be a real name. Payment frauds happen everywhere. Brazil's PIX, which ranks alongside India's UPI as among the fastest-growing account-to-account transfer systems worldwide, is notorious for its 'PIX gangs.' Also Read: Vivek Kaul: Fast thinking is the great enabler of digital fraud What makes India's case problematic is that scamsters have learned to coexist alongside a vast digital identity database, a biometrics-based unique number and card through which 1.4 billion people establish who they are. It hasn't stopped identity theft. India's banks are constantly bombarding customers with 'know-your-customer' checks, asking for the same documents again and again. Yet, 'mules' continue to thrive. Accounts of unsuspecting customers are used by, among others, online bookmakers located overseas to provide illegal access to casinos and cricket betting via cryptocurrencies. The Reserve Bank of India's innovation hub has come up with an artificial-intelligence tool called It's now building a prototype for an intelligence platform covering all digital payments. However, it isn't enough to merely identify suspicious transactions. As analysts have pointed out, the local money-laundering laws do not allow banks to take prompt preventive action, or to restore funds to their rightful owners. Also Read: UPI fuels rural women's digital leap—but few own their phones Critical sectors of the economy can't wait for legal changes. The stock market regulator has decided to add a layer of security to investment funds changing hands online. From October, a @valid suffix on virtual payment handles will be mandatory for brokers, investment advisers, research analysts, merchant bankers and mutual funds to collect payments from investors. These are all stopgaps. Ultimately, New Delhi must put the payment industry on a sustainable footing. Five years ago, it decided that UPI transfers to merchants should be free for users to encourage digitization. The goal has been realized. Although the government denied just last week that it has any such plans, it's time to allow banks and apps like Google Pay and PhonePe to recoup their costs. National Payments Corporation of India, the special monopoly that runs the network, should now face competition. Let private operators charge a basic transaction fee to offer institutional-grade security. The government can keep its incentives to promote low-value cashless payments at the bottom of the pyramid. As for other customers, a high-volume, competitive market would keep a lid on fees, while offering them greater peace of mind. Banks will also heave a sigh of relief. Payment is a utility they must offer depositors so they have funds to lend. Frauds are a costly distraction. ©Bloomberg The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services in Asia.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Time of India
UPI trail leads Ponda cops to killer of B'luru woman
Ponda: Although payments through Unified Payments Interface (UPI) gateways are common in India, one transaction held special significance for the Ponda police — it helped them track down the accused in a blind murder case. A young woman was murdered inside Dharbandora forest on Monday, but for days, the cops had no leads. Eventually, the breakthrough was provided by the woman's method of payment for bus fare. The victim, Roshani Mosses, 22, a resident of Bengaluru, had paid the fare for the trip aboard a Kadamba Transport Corporation bus from Bengaluru to Dharbandora using the UPI mode. Through the bus ticket found near the body of Mosses, Ponda police got her mobile number. The call details led police to the alleged accused, Sanjay Kevin M, 22, also from Bengaluru. When police tracked Kevin's number, it was found operational in Hubballi, Karnataka. 'Ponda police formed a team led by police sub-inspector Ashish Velip, which went to Hubballi and nabbed Kevin with the help of local police,' said South Goa superintendent of police Tikam Singh Verma. Mosses and Kevin had been in a relationship for the past five years, police said. Kevin brought her to Goa, alighted from the bus at Piliem, took her to Pratapnagar's dense forest area, murdered her, and fled to Hubballi, Verma told the media. Ponda police said Kevin hired a taxi from Usgao and went to Hubballi. After reaching Hubballi he had no money, so he contacted his family to ask for a ride back home. When he was waiting for the ride, Ponda police nabbed him and brought him to Goa. Kevin has confessed to committing the murder, police said. A souring relationship could be the motive, police said. However, no murder weapon was found at the crime scene. Ponda police said because Kevin is in their custody, they could recover the weapon. The accused has been remanded by a Ponda court in seven days of police custody. On Monday morning, Mosses' body was found in the jungle. Her throat had been slit.
